New Guy... NFL Picks with reasoning

Fortune500 · Sep 10, 2018

First time poster here. I thought i'd throw my hat in the ring. You can follow along with me and laugh at me when I'm wrong.

I like Cincy (PK) at home against Baltimore. The home team is always a nice play on a short week. I think the line here should really be Cincy -3.5 to 4, but we're overreacting a bit to Baltimore beating up a really bad Buffalo team. I'll take the home team on even money here.

Chicago -3.5 over Seattle. Seattle is going back to back on the road. Chicago looked pretty good in the first half against GB, and should be looking to prove a point here. I'd line this closer to -5

WormyPix · Sep 12, 2018

Welcome Fortune!

I believe BAL will be in better shape tomorrow due to resting starters late in their blowout win, vs CIN off a fairly physical back & forth gm against IND. But you are correct about CIN @ hm. And I still rather have Dalton over Flacco.

Like the CHI pick. Thinking of going w/them myself. We should be worried about CHI's "O" however since they lucked out that Rodgers went out & Kizer gave some pts to their "D".

BOL this wk & beyond.

indiana · Sep 13, 2018

F/500...…..welcome to the RX, sure you will enjoy the site......solid cappers here...…….good luck with your action...…..indy

Recon792 · Sep 13, 2018

Welcome and all the best

sbjon · Sep 13, 2018

Best of luck.

3pointdog · Sep 13, 2018

welcome to the RX

Fortune500 · Sep 15, 2018

Thanks for the kind welcomes!

Fortune500 · Sep 15, 2018

Nice to get off to a 1-0 start.

I'm just not seeing a lot in this week's action, so I'll mostly be setting back.

I'm only adding two picks for now.

Pittsburgh -5 is interesting to me, with an angry Pittsburgh team against a young QB on the road. This KC team has potential to be scary though. I'm taking Pittsburgh at 1 unit, but I don't love it.

I like Cleveland/NO under 49. It just feels high for a pretty good Cleveland defense. New Orleans is gonna score points, but I don't think they'll get the total that high. Feels like a 27-14 type game to me. 1 unit.

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

Adding two more.

Pittsburgh/KC 1Q over 9.5 . Honestly I'm regretting the Pittsburgh pick with the news that Haden's out. KC has some weapons and should score points. Pittsburgh at home is one of the better offenses in the NFL... This game should see a fair amount of points. I'm putting two units on a fast start.

PHI -3 for two units. The super bowl champs are coming off 10 days rest against, I mean, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Thinking they have to come back to earth.

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

Adding in one player prop:

Drew Brees under 299.5 passing yards for 1 unit.

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

Chasing a rough early slate away. We’re on Oakland under 45 for 3 units

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

Early Results
Steelers/KC Over 1Q WIN + 1.6 units
Cleveland/NO Under Win + 0.91 units
Pitt -5 Loss -1 unit
Drew Brees Prop Win + 0.87
Eagles -3 Loss -2 Units

Net 3-2 + 0.38 Units...

Beats a loss.

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

We’re gonna bank that Oakland under for +2.73 units.

Booking the Cowboys -3 for 1 unit

Enfuego · Sep 16, 2018

Very good start buddy. Welcome to the RX.

theDonger · Sep 16, 2018

Fortune500 said:
Booking the Cowboys -3 for 1 unit

What time did the game start?

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

I think I caught a live line on BetDSI a couple minutes after it started unknowingly. That explains why I get even money on the vig. I’ll not count it on the record, since it wasn’t available to most.

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

It was a straight bet at 8:21. But I didn’t get it up here until after the game started, so I’ll scratch that one.

Saints2016 · Sep 16, 2018

No worries Fortune. Great start and keep it up!

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

Thanks. Just trying to stay on the up and up.

Fortune500 · Sep 16, 2018

Looking at the early lines for next week. Tampa Bay +2.5 at home against the Steelers? It feels like a trap, certainly, but I’ll get in early here for 2 Units, this line should move enough to give a nice shot to middle the game.