Best bets for Ravens-Bengals
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Week 2 of the 2018 NFL season is upon us, as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Cincinnati Bengals.
Here are our best bets on the game from Warren Sharp and Mike Clay.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Here are our best bets on the game from Warren Sharp and Mike Clay.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: 45
PickCenter public pick: 72 percent on BaltimoreSharp: Last week, the Bengals defeated the Colts, but the result was not nearly as lopsided as the 34-23 final score indicated. The Colts, with an injury-depleted offensive line, had five more first downs and one more trip to the red zone than the Bengals and were up 23-10 with less than five minutes left in the third quarter. What was most surprising was the Bengals defense. They allowed Andrew Luck, who hadn't thrown a football in a game in almost two years, to produce a 56 percent success rate on passes. The Colts' passing game was extremely limited, as Luck didn't attempt passes downfield (only five of Luck's 53 attempts traveled more than 15 yards downfield, and only one pass gained at least 20 yards). And yet Luck and the Colts still produced positive plays and points.
The Ravens' offense played more conservatively in the second half in the rain, but Joe Flacco's passing still produced four explosive 20-plus-yard gains in the first half. Overall, the Ravens' offense did not look pretty or spectacular, but it featured high-percentage completions from Flacco (74 percent completions), and the game plan likely was tailored to the caliber of opponent. What we did witness was a very diverse passing attack, with six Ravens players receiving at least four targets. Short rest usually favors the better team and better coaching, and I think Baltimore has both. On Thursday games since 2011, the Ravens are a perfect 7-0, although most of these have been at home.
Lean: Ravens +1
PickCenter public pick: 72 percent on BaltimoreSharp: Last week, the Bengals defeated the Colts, but the result was not nearly as lopsided as the 34-23 final score indicated. The Colts, with an injury-depleted offensive line, had five more first downs and one more trip to the red zone than the Bengals and were up 23-10 with less than five minutes left in the third quarter. What was most surprising was the Bengals defense. They allowed Andrew Luck, who hadn't thrown a football in a game in almost two years, to produce a 56 percent success rate on passes. The Colts' passing game was extremely limited, as Luck didn't attempt passes downfield (only five of Luck's 53 attempts traveled more than 15 yards downfield, and only one pass gained at least 20 yards). And yet Luck and the Colts still produced positive plays and points.
The Ravens' offense played more conservatively in the second half in the rain, but Joe Flacco's passing still produced four explosive 20-plus-yard gains in the first half. Overall, the Ravens' offense did not look pretty or spectacular, but it featured high-percentage completions from Flacco (74 percent completions), and the game plan likely was tailored to the caliber of opponent. What we did witness was a very diverse passing attack, with six Ravens players receiving at least four targets. Short rest usually favors the better team and better coaching, and I think Baltimore has both. On Thursday games since 2011, the Ravens are a perfect 7-0, although most of these have been at home.
Lean: Ravens +1
Prop bet
Will Joe Mixon score a touchdown? (+140 Yes, -160 No)
Clay: Mixon found the end zone in Week 1 and handled a pair of carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. That usage brings Mixon to a total of five touchdowns and six carries inside the 5 during 15 career games. Mixon has also yet to find the end zone as a receiver. Perhaps most concerning here is Mixon's offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Since Lazor took on his first OC job in 2015, no coordinator has leaned more on the pass near the goal line.
A look at OTD shows that a league-high 78 percent of the Lazor offense's OTD has been of the passing variety during the span. (League average was 67 percent last season, and the Bengals ranked sixth, at 75 percent.) Facing the Ravens' tough defensive line just makes this one even tougher on Mixon.
The pick: No
<strike></strike>Clay: Mixon found the end zone in Week 1 and handled a pair of carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line. That usage brings Mixon to a total of five touchdowns and six carries inside the 5 during 15 career games. Mixon has also yet to find the end zone as a receiver. Perhaps most concerning here is Mixon's offensive coordinator Bill Lazor. Since Lazor took on his first OC job in 2015, no coordinator has leaned more on the pass near the goal line.
A look at OTD shows that a league-high 78 percent of the Lazor offense's OTD has been of the passing variety during the span. (League average was 67 percent last season, and the Bengals ranked sixth, at 75 percent.) Facing the Ravens' tough defensive line just makes this one even tougher on Mixon.
The pick: No
