Best college football bets for Week 3
- Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin
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Steele: 7-5 ATS (last week: 3-3 ATS)
Coughlin: 9-2 ATS (last week: 5-1 ATS)
Fallica: 6-5 ATS (last week: 4-2 ATS)
After a couple of weeks, this college football season is starting to come into focus. Some teams are underachieving, others are exceeding expectations and quite a few teams are exactly what they appeared to be at the outset -- offering the opportunity for bettors to find their sweet spot. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin will pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
Coughlin: 9-2 ATS (last week: 5-1 ATS)
Fallica: 6-5 ATS (last week: 4-2 ATS)
After a couple of weeks, this college football season is starting to come into focus. Some teams are underachieving, others are exceeding expectations and quite a few teams are exactly what they appeared to be at the outset -- offering the opportunity for bettors to find their sweet spot. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, Chris Fallica and "Stanford Steve" Coughlin will pick their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are the best bets for Week 3 of the college football season.
Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday night. As always, shop for the best price.
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-13.5) vs. No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (O/U 60)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday, at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas (ABC)Steele: This game will be played in Arlington at the home of the Dallas Cowboys. While you would figure Texas Christian would have a significant crowd edge, there will be plenty of Buckeye fans who will make the trip down to Dallas to see Ohio State play in Jerry's World. TCU was just 1-5 ATS against ranked foes a season ago. The defenses and special teams are close, with Ohio State having a solid edge on offense. This is Dwayne Haskins' first start on the road, and he's facing a top-notch defense, but he may not be all that fazed. Haskins came off the bench last season against Michigan in Ann Arbor -- where he faced a stellar Wolverine defense -- and led Ohio State to victory over their bitter rivals. The best matchup in this game may be a stacked Ohio State defensive line taking on an inexperienced offensive line and quarterback for TCU.
Pick: Ohio State -13.5
Score: Ohio State 37, TCU 20
Pick: Ohio State -13.5
Score: Ohio State 37, TCU 20
10 p.m. ET, SaturdayFallica: Both offenses figure to struggle here. Washington is still trying to find itself without Trey Adams, who was lost to injury, and wide receiver Dante Pettis, taken in the second round of the 2018 NFL draft after an All-American senior season. Sure, it's only two games, but Utah leads the nation in adjusted Defensive EPA as well; it should be surprising to nobody that a Kyle Whittingham team is again stout defensively.
Utah has also been a tough out for UW the past three years, as Utah came in as 17.5-, 10- and two-point dogs over the past three years against Washington and lost by three, lost by seven and won by 11. The two losses? A miracle finish last year, when UW scored 10 points in the final minute, and two years ago at Rice-Eccles, when UW needed a punt return for a score to win (one in which the officials missed a fairly obvious block in the back). I think the Utes get a solid effort from Tyler Huntley this week, limit turnovers and get the upset win.
Pick: Utah +6.5
Score: Utah 23, Washington 20
Utah has also been a tough out for UW the past three years, as Utah came in as 17.5-, 10- and two-point dogs over the past three years against Washington and lost by three, lost by seven and won by 11. The two losses? A miracle finish last year, when UW scored 10 points in the final minute, and two years ago at Rice-Eccles, when UW needed a punt return for a score to win (one in which the officials missed a fairly obvious block in the back). I think the Utes get a solid effort from Tyler Huntley this week, limit turnovers and get the upset win.
Pick: Utah +6.5
Score: Utah 23, Washington 20
8 p.m. ET, Saturday Coughlin: Before the season started, it felt like this could be a game between two of the top 15 teams in the country. But after two weeks, one team is ranked 22 and the other isn't even in the polls. Last year, Tom Herman took the Longhorns to Los Angeles as a 17-point underdog and lost by three points in overtime. This feels like a must-win game for the Longhorns; they were so close in a bunch of games last year, and with a season-opening loss to Maryland as double-digit favorites, plenty of negative things have been said about Herman and his program.
All that being said, you would have to think Texas coasted through last week vs. Tulsa, with eyes wide open toward the visiting Trojans in a national prime-time game. My partner on The Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast, Chris Fallica, pointed out that USC head coach Clay Helton is 1-9 as an underdog against the spread. Take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: Texas -3.5
Score: Texas 27, USC 19
All that being said, you would have to think Texas coasted through last week vs. Tulsa, with eyes wide open toward the visiting Trojans in a national prime-time game. My partner on The Stanford Steve & The Bear podcast, Chris Fallica, pointed out that USC head coach Clay Helton is 1-9 as an underdog against the spread. Take the home team and lay the points.
Pick: Texas -3.5
Score: Texas 27, USC 19
7 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)Steele: Alabama may have the most explosive offense in the country, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, a deep set of running backs and wide receivers, and one of the nation's best offensive lines. In their first two games, Alabama had 41 points mid-third quarter against Louisville and 40 points at the half versus Arkansas State. With their defense dominating, Alabama took their foot off the gas pedal each time.
The Ole Miss defense has given up 203 yards per game rushing and 355 yards per game passing. I expect the Tide to top 50 points once again. Ole Miss does have a potent offense in their own right, with the nation's best set of receivers going up against an inexperienced Alabama secondary. While I like the Tide to win this comfortably, I do think the Rebels will be able to move the ball through the air; last week, Arkansas State gained 391 total yards against the Tide. This game could hit the over by the end of the third quarter.
Pick: Over 71
Score: Alabama 54, Ole Miss 24
The Ole Miss defense has given up 203 yards per game rushing and 355 yards per game passing. I expect the Tide to top 50 points once again. Ole Miss does have a potent offense in their own right, with the nation's best set of receivers going up against an inexperienced Alabama secondary. While I like the Tide to win this comfortably, I do think the Rebels will be able to move the ball through the air; last week, Arkansas State gained 391 total yards against the Tide. This game could hit the over by the end of the third quarter.
Pick: Over 71
Score: Alabama 54, Ole Miss 24
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Fallica: This is the poster child of rotten sandwich games. The Aggies suffered a gutting 28-26 loss to Clemson last week and have a road game at Alabama next week. It will probably be hard for Aggie players to get up for this one, given the energy and emotion they spent last week and how easy it'll be to look ahead to their SEC opener in Tuscaloosa next week. A&M will win, but UL Monroe should score enough to stay within the number. For those into trends, Texas A&M is 1-4 ATS in its past five games vs. FBS opponents as at least a 25-point favorite. One of those games was a five-point win over UL Monroe in 2014 as a 33-point favorite.Pick: UL Monroe +26.5
Score: Texas A&M 41, UL Monroe 21
Score: Texas A&M 41, UL Monroe 21
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Coughlin: These two teams are meeting for the first time since 1998. Bobby Petrino coached the Hilltoppers in 2013, before returning for a second stint with the Cardinals the following season. Now that we got that out of the way, when it comes to offense, I trust Bobby Petrino. People will look at the box score from last week and wonder why Louisville didn't beat Indiana State by more. Well, when you look closer, there was more than one weather delay and, on top of that, Petrino removed starting QB Juwan Pass and put in Malik Cunningham, who accounted for 2 TDs.
The vibe going into this game just feels like Louisville knows they are the more talented team and they will want to prove to an in-state opponent they are the superior team -- so they might try and put one on the 'Toppers. Just be careful, because the back door is always open. We'll just take over the total.
Pick: Over 57
Score: Louisville 48, Western Kentucky 21
The vibe going into this game just feels like Louisville knows they are the more talented team and they will want to prove to an in-state opponent they are the superior team -- so they might try and put one on the 'Toppers. Just be careful, because the back door is always open. We'll just take over the total.
Pick: Over 57
Score: Louisville 48, Western Kentucky 21
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday (ESPN)Steele: Oklahoma State is No. 119 on my Experience Chart, and last time they were this inexperienced, they went 7-6 in 2014 and were 2-4 ATS at home. Boise has 16 returning starters, including veteran quarterback Brett Rypien. Boise tends to underperform on the blue turf but typically performs well on the road. To that point, Bryan Harsin is 16-7 straight up and ATS on the road since taking the Boise job. Last week, Boise set a school record for offensive yards, with an 818-193-yard edge against UConn. Rypien barely played in the second half, as his final pass was a 74-yard touchdown on the first play of the third quarter.
South Alabama stacked the line to stop the run, held Oklahoma State to 38 rushing yards in the first half and only trailed 24-13. Oklahoma State got a touchdown with just 21 seconds remaining in the first half, though, and the Cowboys pulled away in the second half. Boise has the more experienced quarterback and also has the edges on defense as well as special teams. This is one of the most important games of the season for Boise if they are going to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Day bowl. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, begins Big 12 play next week against Texas Tech. With the Broncos' solid road pedigree and their experience edge, I will call for the upset.
Pick: Boise State +2.5 (+)
Score: Boise State 37, Oklahoma State 34
South Alabama stacked the line to stop the run, held Oklahoma State to 38 rushing yards in the first half and only trailed 24-13. Oklahoma State got a touchdown with just 21 seconds remaining in the first half, though, and the Cowboys pulled away in the second half. Boise has the more experienced quarterback and also has the edges on defense as well as special teams. This is one of the most important games of the season for Boise if they are going to represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Day bowl. Oklahoma State, on the other hand, begins Big 12 play next week against Texas Tech. With the Broncos' solid road pedigree and their experience edge, I will call for the upset.
Pick: Boise State +2.5 (+)
Score: Boise State 37, Oklahoma State 34
7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Coughlin: After starting the season 0-2, when they thought they would be 2-0, you would have to think that the Boilermakers have had a very focused week of practice, to say the least. On top of that, you factor in what happened last year when Purdue and their big-ass drum went to Columbia, Missouri, and dominated the Tigers 35-3, and you have to feel Purdue has confidence.
I fully expect coach Jeff Brohm to hold nothing back, because this week he said he would be punishing players for the penalties that have really cost them in their two first games. There's no margin for error with 10 straight Power Five foes on the schedule, and Purdue is now 0-2 for the first time since 1996 in what was supposed to be a promising year. Take the home underdog.
Pick: Purdue +6
Score: Purdue 30, Missouri 27
I fully expect coach Jeff Brohm to hold nothing back, because this week he said he would be punishing players for the penalties that have really cost them in their two first games. There's no margin for error with 10 straight Power Five foes on the schedule, and Purdue is now 0-2 for the first time since 1996 in what was supposed to be a promising year. Take the home underdog.
Pick: Purdue +6
Score: Purdue 30, Missouri 27
Fallica: Missouri put up 600 yards and 40 points in a win last week versus Wyoming. At the same time, Purdue was busy fumbling the ball five times, struggling on third down and committing 85 yards in penalties in what was a second straight close loss. The Boilermakers were great in an underdog role last year, going 5-2 ATS with three outright wins.
Nick Holt has a young defensive unit, but Purdue did an OK job in the opener versus Northwestern and should continue to improve as the year goes on. The Boilermakers have some good backs, and that should help keep Drew Lock and Missouri off the field. It's desperation time for Purdue, while Missouri has its biggest game of the year in its eyes as they host Georgia next week. It all adds up to taking the home dog.
Pick: Purdue +6
Score: Purdue 34, Missouri 31
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-13.5; O/U 52)Nick Holt has a young defensive unit, but Purdue did an OK job in the opener versus Northwestern and should continue to improve as the year goes on. The Boilermakers have some good backs, and that should help keep Drew Lock and Missouri off the field. It's desperation time for Purdue, while Missouri has its biggest game of the year in its eyes as they host Georgia next week. It all adds up to taking the home dog.
Pick: Purdue +6
Score: Purdue 34, Missouri 31
2:30 p.m. ET, SaturdaySteele: Notre Dame opened the season strong by beating a powerful Michigan team at home. The Irish were in a flat spot last week and led Ball State 24-6 in the fourth quarter, but they let up and needed to recover a late onside kick to preserve their eight-point win. Brian Kelly will make sure the Irish do not come out flat again this week. Last year, after an impressive 3-0 start, the Commodores were taken seriously by Alabama at home and the Tide rolled to a 59-0 win in Nashville with a massive 677-78 edge in yards. Notre Dame is not as talented as Alabama, but they are strong at the line of scrimmage and will take an SEC team seriously at home. Last year, the Irish won their home games by an average of 23.6 points per game -- and they'll be poised to regain that swagger this week.
Pick: Notre Dame -13.5
Score: Notre Dame 34, Vanderbilt 13
Pick: Notre Dame -13.5
Score: Notre Dame 34, Vanderbilt 13
12:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Fallica: The Panthers looked like they could be headed into halftime last week with a lead, but Penn State scored right before the half and erupted for 37 points in the second half. A lot of that was because of Pitt turnovers, short fields, penalties and poor special teams play. Penn State didn't even have 400 yards in the game. I'd expect Pat Narduzzi's team to play much better this week.
Georgia Tech has been a terrible road favorite, losing seven straight games in that role -- four by double digits -- including last week at South Florida. The Yellow Jackets haven't won a game as a road favorite since 2014. Yet here we are again, with the Jackets laying points on the road, down RB KirVonte Benson, while QB TaQuon Marshall is not 100 percent as he nurses a toe injury. You know what to do.
Pick: Pittsburgh +4.5
Score: Pittsburgh 40, Georgia Tech 35
Georgia Tech has been a terrible road favorite, losing seven straight games in that role -- four by double digits -- including last week at South Florida. The Yellow Jackets haven't won a game as a road favorite since 2014. Yet here we are again, with the Jackets laying points on the road, down RB KirVonte Benson, while QB TaQuon Marshall is not 100 percent as he nurses a toe injury. You know what to do.
Pick: Pittsburgh +4.5
Score: Pittsburgh 40, Georgia Tech 35
12 p.m. ET, SaturdayCoughlin: I could be totally wrong here, but this seems like a great situation for Syracuse. After going to Tallahassee last year and losing a very winnable game to Florida State, you have to think the Orange have had this game circled all off-season. We have seen plenty from their QB Eric Dungey, who's healthy, as he's thrown seven TDs in their first two games.
On the other side, you can't help but notice how FSU has played way below expectations, and I just am not sure they will be up for a noon kickoff inside the Carrier Dome. I'm not saying the 'Cuse defense is going to have their way with Willie Taggart's offense, but I think they have enough to make the road team uncomfortable. I like the home underdog.
Pick: Syracuse +3
Score: Syracuse 34, FSU 33
On the other side, you can't help but notice how FSU has played way below expectations, and I just am not sure they will be up for a noon kickoff inside the Carrier Dome. I'm not saying the 'Cuse defense is going to have their way with Willie Taggart's offense, but I think they have enough to make the road team uncomfortable. I like the home underdog.
Pick: Syracuse +3
Score: Syracuse 34, FSU 33
6 p.m. ET, SaturdaySteele: Eastern Michigan head coach Chris Creighton is 12-1 in his last 13 games as an away underdog, including last week's upset at Purdue. Eastern Michigan and Buffalo each opened the season with significant wins over FCS foes, and both pulled outright upsets last week on late scores. Buffalo's quarterback Tyree Jackson is off to a strong start with an impressive 9-1 TD-INT ratio, but he's coming off an injury, which hampers his ability to be a running threat like he was last season; to this point in the season, Jackson has just two carries for three yards.
Eastern Michigan is led by Iowa transfer quarterback Tyler Wiegers, who's averaging 275 yards per game passing and sits at No. 15 in the FBS in pass efficiency. The offenses are close in skill level, but I give the edge on both defense and special teams to Eastern Michigan. The Eagles delivered for me last week, and I will ride them again here.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +3.5 (+)
Score: Eastern Michigan 27, Buffalo 26
Eastern Michigan is led by Iowa transfer quarterback Tyler Wiegers, who's averaging 275 yards per game passing and sits at No. 15 in the FBS in pass efficiency. The offenses are close in skill level, but I give the edge on both defense and special teams to Eastern Michigan. The Eagles delivered for me last week, and I will ride them again here.
Pick: Eastern Michigan +3.5 (+)
Score: Eastern Michigan 27, Buffalo 26
12 p.m. ET, SaturdayFallica: This is the second straight week Army gets a trendy, popular underdog. Last week, Army easily dispatched Liberty one week after Liberty pulled off a big upset over Old Dominion. This week, Army gets 3-0 Hawaii, which has already won two games as double-digit underdogs, but has allowed at least 29 points and 411 yards in each of those three games. What happens if/when the offense isn't clicking? Another thing to consider here is that this is a noon Eastern kickoff -- also known as 6 a.m. in Honolulu. Can Hawaii acclimate to that time change on such short notice? I know Hawaii already beat Navy, but I think Army's offense gets the better of them here.
Pick: Army -6
Score: Army 41, Hawai'i 31
Pick: Army -6
Score: Army 41, Hawai'i 31
10:30 p.m. ET, SaturdaySteele: The Sun Devils delivered for me last week in their upset of Michigan State at home. While they do take to the road, they do so with surging confidence. One of the Aztecs' advantages throughout the years has been their complex 3-3-5 defense, which is tough to prepare for in practice. Herm Edwards hired Danny Gonzalez as his defensive coordinator this year, and that advantage may now be gone; Gonzalez had been with San Diego State for the past seven years and was their defensive coordinator a season ago.
Arizona State practices against that same defense every day, and Gonzalez brings substantial knowledge of the Aztec defenders' strengths and weaknesses. The Aztecs lost to Pac-12 member Stanford 31-10 in the opener and last week only led Sacramento State 14-13 with five minutes to go. San Diego State will also be without their starting quarterback, but his main job was to hand the ball off anyway, so it is not a huge loss. Arizona State has huge edges at quarterback, with Manny Wilkins, and at wide receiver, with one of the nation's best in N'Keal Henry.
Pick: Arizona State -5.5
Score: Arizona State 31, San Diego State 20
Arizona State practices against that same defense every day, and Gonzalez brings substantial knowledge of the Aztec defenders' strengths and weaknesses. The Aztecs lost to Pac-12 member Stanford 31-10 in the opener and last week only led Sacramento State 14-13 with five minutes to go. San Diego State will also be without their starting quarterback, but his main job was to hand the ball off anyway, so it is not a huge loss. Arizona State has huge edges at quarterback, with Manny Wilkins, and at wide receiver, with one of the nation's best in N'Keal Henry.
Pick: Arizona State -5.5
Score: Arizona State 31, San Diego State 20
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Fallica: Miami played pretty well at Marshall, outgaining the Herd in a seven-point loss. Then, last week, the Miami passing game was nonexistent as they played Cincinnati in bad weather. Look for QB Gus Ragland to have a better go of it here. Miami has been an underdog in a non-conference game 11 times under head coach Chuck Martin and is 8-3 ATS in those games. Included in that are five losses by a TD or less in which it was at least a two-TD dog. Minnesota looks improved after wins versus New Mexico State and Fresno, but I'm not ready to lay around two TD yet with the Gophers, who will be without RB Rodney Smith.
Pick: Miami (OH) + 13.5
Score: Minnesota 27, Miami (OH) 23
Pick: Miami (OH) + 13.5
Score: Minnesota 27, Miami (OH) 23
3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday Coughlin: Just because...Pick: Rutgers +2.5
Score: Rutgers 3, Kansas 2
Score: Rutgers 3, Kansas 2
