NFL Week 2 Systems

rolltide · Sep 14, 2018

PLAY ON teams that allowed 25+ more points than expected vs opponents that aren't off a dominating defensive game (46-20 ATS = on NO)

UNDER team off away blowout win that went under vs opponent avg <26 ppg (19-54 o/u = LAR under, WAS under)

PLAY ON away teams in closely lined game off away loss (79-32 ATS = on HOU)

UNDER dogs that just gained >400 yards in an away dog win (20-51 o/u = TB under)

UNDER big favs off fav game with 2+ turnovers and avg rushing performance (1-34 o/u = NO under) note: we crushed this one last year.... won 14 straight before it lost with JAX/PIT playoffs. in regular season it is 33 straight unders! it is a subset of a 40-101 o/u. Negative is that NO/TB o/u margin last week was 9 points higher than any of the 141 games before this

OPPOSE home teams in nondiv conference game when both teams off away dog losses (31-62 ATS = oppose CHI)

UNDER home team off dog win vs opponent not off dog win, total 38.5-47.5 (58-101 o/u = TB under, NYJ under, WAS under)

UNDER teams off 4th quarter comeback OVER not in b2b away games (27-65 o/u = GB under)

PLAY ON 25+ dogs off big fav loss (72-30 ATS = on DET)

UNDER home favs off away game where gained >250 yards but lost 3+ fumbles (25-62 o/u = PIT under)

UNDER away favs of 7+ (19-60 o/u = SD under)

UNDER grass teams that allowed 360+ in an away fav game last week (3-36 o/u = PIT under)

OPPOSE divisional home dogs and small favs off a home div game they either lost or won close (7-24 ATS = oppose GB)

Week 2 = play on solid winning teams from LY that lost week 1 and aren't playing in b2b home games (41-22 ATS = on SEA, DAL, DET, TEN)

Week 2 = OPPOSE teams that scored 31+ last week that were dogs or <1 TD favs (4-21-3 ATS = OPPOSE TB, NYJ, KC)

Week 2 = OPPOSE teams that scored more than 28 points in week 1 when they were DD favs (41-12 ATS = on PIT, PHI, MIA, ARI) note: 36-8 tightener on PIT, PHI, MIA

Week 2 = PLAY ON 3.5+ dogs in game with two 0-1 teams (43-19 ATS = on BUF, SEA)

Week 2 = UNDER teams not off a week 1 win and now 9+ dogs (9-28 o/u = CLE under, ARI under)

Week 2 = PLAY ON team that covered by 7+ in turnover-free game vs opponent that lost ATS but not due to losing TO margin (20-2 ATS = on LAR, on KC)

1H season = OPPOSE favs that either won/lost by FG or tied last week in OT (34-81 ATS = OPPOSE PIT)

1H season = in certain line situations play OVER away teams off a home fav loss (77-33 o/u = SD over, ARI over)

indiana · Sep 14, 2018

R.Tide……hope all is well my friend.....always look for your thread buddy...…..appreciate e the early info...…….BOL with all your action...…...indy

jpicks100 · Sep 14, 2018

Where do you get these trends sir? Thanx:toast:

nsight · Sep 15, 2018

jpicks100 said:
Where do you get these trends sir? Thanx:toast:

http://killersports.com/nfl/home

nsight · Sep 15, 2018

Thanks for the info RT ..... how's pops doing?

rolltide · Sep 16, 2018

jpicks100 said:
Where do you get these trends sir? Thanx:toast:

i have a dbase of them that i run each week on killersports

HacheMan · Sep 16, 2018

gL today Tide

rolltide · Sep 16, 2018

|nsight said:
Thanks for the info RT ..... how's pops doing?

i'll ask my group. haven't heard from him in long time as he's out of business. last i heard he was happy playing grandpa

a little fun one for today..... teams, like the Jets, that beat the spread by >24 points in week one are 0-10 ATS in week 2 losing by avg of nearly 15 ppg.

week = 2 and op:ats margin > 24 and season > 2008

SU:	9-1-0 (14.80, 90.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	10-0-0 (13.70, 100.0%)	avg line: -1.1	+6: 10-0-0 (100.0%)	-6: 8-1-1 (88.9%)	+10: 10-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 7-3-0 (70.0%)
O/U:	8-1-1 (10.00, 88.9%)	avg total: 43.6	+6: 5-5-0 (50.0%)	-6: 9-1-0 (90.0%)	+10: 4-5-1 (44.4%)	-10: 9-1-0 (90.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Pass Yds	Comp	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	33.3	136.1	31.7	255.8	20.7	0.9	6.8	11.3	6.8	9.3	34.2
Opp	22.6	100.9	38.8	247.4	21.8	3.0	2.0	5.0	4.5	7.9	19.4

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Sep 16, 2018	view	Sunday	2	2018	Dolphins	Jets	away						3.0	42.5

mickj · Sep 16, 2018

does this apply to Bucs?

VenomousSanction · Sep 16, 2018

Looks good Roll !! GL Bro

rolltide · Sep 16, 2018

mickj said:
does this apply to Bucs?

no just jets (like i wrote)

bucs were not close to >24 point cover last week...won by 8 getting 9.5

rolltide · Sep 16, 2018

Dogs of 3 or more, like TB, that won as dogs of 7 or more last week and beat the spread by more than 9 points have won just once in 22 tries the following week and covered 6 out of 22 with average loss by more than 2 TD

line > 2.5 and p:line > 6.5 and p:W and p:ats margin > 9 and season > 2013

SU:	1-21-0 (-14.50, 4.5%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	6-16-0 (-8.25, 27.3%)	avg line: 6.2	+6: 11-10-1 (52.4%)	-6: 1-21-0 (4.5%)	+10: 13-8-1 (61.9%)	-10: 0-21-1 (0.0%)
O/U:	11-10-1 (0.50, 52.4%)	avg total: 44.1	+6: 5-17-0 (22.7%)	-6: 17-5-0 (77.3%)	+10: 3-19-0 (13.6%)	-10: 18-4-0 (81.8%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Pass Yds	Comp	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	23.5	87.2	39.2	217.4	21.2	2.1	1.6	6.7	3.1	3.6	15.0
Opp	28.5	117.8	34.8	249.1	22.4	1.2	6.2	6.4	7.8	8.7	29.5

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Sep 16, 2018	view	Sunday	2	2018	Buccaneers	Eagles	home						3.0	46.5

nsight · Sep 16, 2018

rolltide said:
i'll ask my group. haven't heard from him in long time as he's out of business. last i heard he was happy playing grandpa

a little fun one for today..... teams, like the Jets, that beat the spread by >24 points in week one are 0-10 ATS in week 2 losing by avg of nearly 15 ppg.

week = 2 and op:ats margin > 24 and season > 2008

SU:	9-1-0 (14.80, 90.0%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	10-0-0 (13.70, 100.0%)	avg line: -1.1	+6: 10-0-0 (100.0%)	-6: 8-1-1 (88.9%)	+10: 10-0-0 (100.0%)	-10: 7-3-0 (70.0%)
O/U:	8-1-1 (10.00, 88.9%)	avg total: 43.6	+6: 5-5-0 (50.0%)	-6: 9-1-0 (90.0%)	+10: 4-5-1 (44.4%)	-10: 9-1-0 (90.0%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Pass Yds	Comp	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	33.3	136.1	31.7	255.8	20.7	0.9	6.8	11.3	6.8	9.3	34.2
Opp	22.6	100.9	38.8	247.4	21.8	3.0	2.0	5.0	4.5	7.9	19.4

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Sep 16, 2018	view	Sunday	2	2018	Dolphins	Jets	away						3.0	42.5

That's cool....wonder if he will make a return in 2020?

THEBUFFROCK · Sep 16, 2018

:toast:

mickj · Sep 16, 2018

thank you

JoeG0307 · Sep 23, 2018

Do you have anything for this week? These trends were pretty good last week.

richporter · Sep 23, 2018

he hasn't had much time... but here are some from RT

PLAY ON early season away dog or tiny fav that couldn't control ball last year but playing a team with terrible time of possession this year (53-8 ATS = on DAL, LAR, JAX, TEN)

PLAY ON away teams in closely lined game off away loss (79-33 ATS = on OAK)

OPPOSE home favs or small dogs that are terrible 1st half teams (91-164 ATS - vs PHI, vs SEA, vs HOU)

PLAY ON away dogs that were playoff teams LY and off a good defensive game (86-38 ATS - on NO, on TEN)

OVER after allowing 12+ catches to a receiver last week and 1 or less rushing TD (56-26 o/u = CLE over, DAL over, GB over, ATL over, IND over)

OPPOSE and UNDER away team off home win and 2+ straight wins but allowed big passing yards in both (15-36 ATS = vs CIN ... 18-33 o/u = CIN under)

PLAY ON a team that allowed <7 first downs last game (44-16 ATS = on LAR)

PLAY ON big home dog that just lost by 29+ (51-23 ATS = on ARI)

UNDER big winning home team, avg total, off dog win vs opponent not off dog win (60-103 o/u = MIA under)

OPPOSE favs >.500 that won as small home dogs last week (14-40 ATS = vs JAX)

OPPOSE favs that lost to this team last year and were favs or small dogs in last two games (14-47 ATS = vs JAX)

OVER b2b games of 3+ passing TD vs opponent with 4+ passing TD in last 2 games (87-44 o/u = TB over, KC over, LAC over)

UNDER home team off away fav game and gaining 63%+ of first downs by passing (12-49 o/u = PHI under)

PLAY ON away fav or small dog off non-div away fav loss (23-9 ATS = on NE)

PLAY ON Non-Div dog off a shutout loss playing avg team (35-7 ATS = on ARI)
note: 25-18 SU as average of +5.5 dog which is +200 ML = 174% ROI on ML betting
note: 41-2 on +6 teasers!

UNDER grass favs in Non-Div game off away game vs opponent that just gained 360+ yards (4-36 o/u = BAL under)

OPPOSE home div favs off div home game (8-24 ATS = vs NO)

PLAY ON week 3-4 teams that have increased their yards per play offense over last year (92-52 ATS = on DEN, on LAR, on NO, on KC, on TB)

UNDER week 3 away team 2-0 off a home game and won 5+ games LY (18-43 o/u = DEN under, CIN under)

OVER week 3 dog 0-2 both teams off a loss (35-13 o/u = NYG over, DET over)

PLAY ON dog in turnover system i have (133-72 ATS = on DEN) note: is only .500 since 2013 season

OPPOSE week 3 or 4 home teams that started with at least 2 straight road games (20-52 ATS = oppose KC, SEA, HOU)

OVER week 3 winless dog scoring <=20 ppg and with turnover margin of 3 or less YTD (31-8 o/u = ARI over, NYG over, BUF over)

OPPOSE week 3 home fav or small dog vs team with a win that didn't win 11+ last year or two years ago (13-52 ATS = oppose KC, CAR, LAR, SEA, CLE)

OPPOSE and OVER game 3 team with no interception thrown YTD (11-19 ATS, 20-10 o/u = oppose KC, KC over)

PLAY ON week 3 hot teams (1-2 wins) vs cold teams (0-1 wins) changing site (47-16 ATS = on TB, IND, CIN, DEN, DAL)
- 26-6 tightenter, played last year (on DAL)

OVER week 3-6 home team off b2b away games (47-19 o/u = HOU over, SEA over, KC over)

OVER week 3 games with total<42 (47-16 o/u = ARI over, JAX over, SEA over, HOU over, MIN over, CLE over)
- tightener 35-8 o/u, home team 0-1 losses (JAX over, MIN over, CLE over)
- tightener #2 39-10 o/u, away team 1-2 losses (ARI over, JAX over, SEA over, HOU over, MIN over, CLE over)

OVER week 3 home team off b2b unders (28-3 o/u = ARI over, LAR over, WAS over, HOU over)

UNDER week 3 dog or tiny fav off b2b overs (8-28 o/u = PIT under, TB under, DET under, CIN under, SD under, BUF under)

rolltide · Sep 23, 2018

richporter said:
he hasn't had much time... but here are some from RT

PLAY ON early season away dog or tiny fav that couldn't control ball last year but playing a team with terrible time of possession this year (53-8 ATS = on DAL, LAR, JAX, TEN)

i screwed this one up. Only Dallas is a fit.... others will be fits in Oct 7 games if numbers hold

JoeG0307 · Sep 23, 2018

thanks!

rolltide · Sep 23, 2018

one from the killersports folks today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y6qSrXoiW3A

Week 3, 0-2 home dogs of 3.5+ that have punted at least 10x in their two games and scored 16 or less last game have gone over 17 straight times = 17-0 o/u, average total 41, average 57.3 points combined

All home dogs in this spot are 25-2 o/u

HD and losses = 2 and wins = 0 and tS(punts) > 9 and p

oints < 17 and season > 1990

SU:	9-18-0 (-7.11, 33.3%)		Teaser Records
ATS:	13-13-1 (-2.30, 50.0%)	avg line: 4.8	+6: 17-10-0 (63.0%)	-6: 6-20-1 (23.1%)	+10: 18-9-0 (66.7%)	-10: 3-24-0 (11.1%)
O/U:	25-2-0 (14.78, 92.6%)	avg total: 39.9	+6: 22-5-0 (81.5%)	-6: 26-1-0 (96.3%)	+10: 20-6-1 (76.9%)	-10: 26-1-0 (96.3%)

	Rushes	Rush Yds	Passes	Pass Yds	Comp	TOs	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final
Team	25.4	108.3	34.8	212.7	20.3	2.3	4.1	8.0	4.0	7.6	23.8
Opp	29.3	129.8	35.7	272.1	22.9	1.6	6.2	9.2	7.3	8.2	30.9

Date	Link	Day	Week	Season	Team	Opp	Site	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Final	Line	Total	SUm	ATSm	OUm	DPS	DPA	SUr	ATSr	OUr	ot
Sep 23, 2018	view	Sunday	3	2018	Cardinals	Bears	home						6.0	38.5

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