MistaFlava's College Football Week 3 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2018 MistaFlava's CFB Record: 1-1 ATS (-$1.00)

Went rogue the last couple of weeks after starting the season with a few plays in Week 1 but back at The Rx and looking to post winners. Will be keeping track of my record and plays here all season, hopefully these can be used to make educated decisions. Feel free to comment, critique or just shoot the shit.

Good luck to everyone

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Saturday, September 15


Syracuse Orangemen +3 (10 Units)

The Orangemen are perfect on the season starting their 2018 campaign off 2-0 SU and ATS with wins against Western Michigan and Wagner but now the real season starts for these guys. Florida State comes in with struggles of their own as they looked awful against Virginia Tech but then bounced back against an FC opponent last week. So far this year the Noles have been a pass first team (40+ attempts per game as opposed to 31.5 rush attempts) and Syracuse's secondary has been solid (5 interceptions in two games).

So much talk about the Orange and how their D has been bad but Florida State's defense has allowed 422 total yards per game and 5.9 yards per play so far this season. It's hard to run on the Noles but their secondary has been a mess as opponents have managed to complete 64.0% of their passes for 7.9 yards per pass attempt and the Syracuse offensive line has won the battle in both their games played. The Orange have a very balanced attack and this will cause problems for FSU in this one.

There is no way Syracuse forgot about their embarrassing 45-14 loss to Florida State here in 2016. It must have been punched in their heads all week long. The Orange have never beat FSU in the Carrier Dome but this is their best chance to do it. FSU is a mess. Florida State is 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus ACC Conference opponents and they are 1-5-2 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record on the season. The Home Team has covered 5 of the last 7 meetings and Syracuse is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games dating back to 2017. Orange for me.

Trend of the Game: Florida State is 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine ACC Conference games.


Syracuse 28, Florida State 21




more to come...

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Army Black Knights -6.5 (10 Units)

This is probably the trap game of the year for this Hawaii squad who so far have been the most impressive and surprising college football team of 2018. They are off to a 3-0 SU start with wins over Navy, Colorado State and Rice with two of those coming at home but I feel this is a sucker play. Of course the +6.5 looks great because of how well Hawaii has played but this game is at 12:00pm ET on the mainland which means it's pretty much 6:00am time for all the Hawaii players. I see a rough outing here. Army is a team that can wear you down and they have forced 4 turnovers already in 2018.

I love the Army running game in this one. Hawaii comes into this game with a perfect record on the season but they are allowing 196.3 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. OUCH! This Army rushing attack is already averaging 300+ rushing yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry this season. I see them controlling the tempo of play in this one and wearing down a Hawaii defensive line that is going to be playing a virtual 6:00am start. Hawaii also allows 9.6 yards per pass attempt in their air and if the Black Knights want to throw a couple of times they will have some space to do it.

The last time Hawaii was in West Point was back in 2010 and they won by 3 in a thriller but this is the best Army team in years. Keep in mind, despite the hot start, Hawaii is still 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and have covered only 15 of their last 51 games overall. Let that register for a second. Army is 4-1 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and have been a decent September team over the years.

Trend of the Game: Hawaii have covered the spread in only 15 of their last 51 games overall.


Army 36, Hawaii 21




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Oklahoma Sooners -18 (10 Units)

I am not one for public faves or road faves for that matter in college football but when I saw this line below the 20 point mark, I had to be on it and I just took it this morning. This is the first road game of the season for the Sooners who are 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS after wins over Florida Atlantic and UCLA, both at home. The only way you're going to beat these Sooners is if you can force turnovers and so far in 2018 in their lone game of the season, the Iowa State defense had 0 interceptions, 0 forced fumbles and 0 sacks in two games played. Huh? Sure they don't allow big yardage but they don't really do much either and Oklahoma will make them pay.

The Iowa State offense is coming off a 3 point performance at Iowa last weekend. Yes, 3 points and outyarded by 83 total yards in the game. They are in for a completely different animal in this one with the Sooners offense who average 567.5 total yards of offense on 8.6 yards per play. Even if the Cyclones can get some stops, their offense was awful last week with their 188 total yards of offense on 3.4 yards per play. You can't run the ball on this Sooners defensive line but you have a shot in their air if there is time to throw. Oklahoma has 8 sacks on the year in two games so Iowa State could be in trouble here.

I compare this matchup to their 2014 encounter here at Iowa State. Oklahoma came in as a -15.5 favorite on the road and came out with a 59-14 win. Iowa State just doesn't have the offense this year. Mind you, Iowa State is a very very good home team and their ATS record at home the last few seasons is tremendous but Oklahoma has covered the spread in 9 of the last 13 meetings and they are now 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 Conference games. I will be backing Iowa State at home a few times in 2018 but not against the Sooners who should win this big.

Trend of the Game: Oklahoma is 5-1 ATS in their last six games versus Big 12 Conference opponents.


Oklahoma 49, Iowa State 17




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Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 (10 Units)

Some will probably say this line makes no sense at all but it does. Georgia Tech come into this game 0-2 ATS on the season but their Nation leading 429 rushing yards per game in 2018 on 7.7 yards per carry is going to be a problem for the Pitt Panthers who have now allowed 29.0 points per game in two games played in 2018. Sure they allow only 4.4 yards per carry in those games and have actually been decent against the run but the Yellow Jackets are a different animal and the Panthers D is just not good (5.9 yards allowed per play so far this season). If Georgia Tech wants to dictate the tempo of this one they will.

The Pitt Panthers were given the benefit of the doubt by oddsmakers last weekend as they hosted Penn State but they got destroyed 51-6 in a comedy of errors. Sure this is a prime spot for a bounce back game but I think the Georgia Tech defense is going to win the battle in the trenches. So far in two games the Panthers offense averages only 5.4 yards per play and only 19.5 points per game. The Yellow Jackets defense is good against the run (4.2 yards allowed per carry in 2018). Pitt has 20 penalties in two games this season and it will cost them once again in what should be a chippy game.

Georgia Tech for me is a fade in most games when it comes to non-conference action but versus ACC Conference opponents they have been good going 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 overall. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming off a loss the game before. Pitt for some reason can never get going in September going 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games and they have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 26 home games. The Road Team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this series and I am taking Georgia Tech.

Trend of the Game: Pitt have covered the spread in only 7 of their last 26 home games.


Georgia Tech 34, Pitt 20




more to come...

Great insight! Agree with most of them. Good to see you around again!

GL today Mista

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Throwing in a few non-writeup plays as I head out the door, will post a few more writeups tonight. All 10 Unit plays:



Vanderbilt +13.5
Duke +4
Boise State +1
LSU +10.5




more to come...

Mr. Flava...….BOL with all your action buddy...…..indy