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Thread: MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

  1. #1 MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 2 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis) 
    Handicapping Machine MistaFlava's Avatar
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    2018 MistaFlava NFL Record: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

    I did not post here last week but looking to kick things off with a big Week 2 Sunday after going 5-3 ATS in college football yesterday (not bad for my dreadful first two weeks which has become a yearly tradition). I will be posting plays and writeups here for the most part.

    Good luck to everyone this season!

    ----------------------------------------------------


    Sunday, September 16


    Tennessee Titans +3.5 (10 Units)

    Both teams are struggling right now and this is no more than a field goal game at best. The Texans are prime for a bounce back game based on their bad performance last week in New England but I'm not convinced by anything I have seen from their offense. The Texans are one of the biggest public plays this week with 70% or more of public wagers in Vegas coming in on the road faves. That's always a big no-no in the NFL. The Texans managed only 4.8 yards of offense last week, turned the ball over twice and allowed 3 sacks while converting only 18% of their third down chances.

    The Tennessee Titans are not a good football team but they can compete at home in this one against another struggling team. The Titans managed 5.0 yards per play last week in Miami, they allowed 0 sacks on their QB's and they converted 42.9% of their third down chances. They were the more effective offense of these two teams and as long as Marcus Mariota can remain somewhat healthy and keep the gameplan basic in this one, he is going to get some yards and keep this game close. These two teams know each other well.

    Houston is now on a streak of 0-6 ATS in their last six regular season games and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus AFC opponents. Tennessee on the other hand is 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a straight up loss and they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games. This is a pretty good spot and the home team has gone 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. I think with so many people on Houston and Tennessee not playing that poorly (outside of the 3 interceptions) last weekend, the Titans are the play here.

    Trend of the Game: Houston is 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games after accumulating 150+ rushing yards in their previous game.


    Tennessee 20, Houston 17




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    Indianapolis-Washington 'UNDER' 47 (10 Units)

    Okay so this is another contrarian play of sorts because on paper this should be a shootout but let's break this down a bit. Washington's defense was impressive last week allowing only 213 total yards on 4.3 yards per play and only 6 points scored. They allowed only 12.5% of third downs to be converted and that bodes well against the Colts who were one of the best 3rd down teams in the NFL in Week 1. The Redskins had 2 sacks, 1 Interception and 1 Fumble Recovery. I don't see the Colts doing anything in this game. Turnovers and miscues.

    You have to give and take with these totals. Obviously the Washington offense is going to eat and score points against a very suspect Colts defense that allowed 6.9 yards per play last week in their opener against the Cincinnati Bengals. They allowed big play after big play in the second half but that game was indoors and things should be a bit different outdoors for this one. Much like the Redskins in Week 1, the Colts defense had 2 sacks, 1 interception and 1 fumble recovery so I expect them to make some drive ending plays despite allowing yards the other way.

    The UNDER is not a thing in the last four meetings between these teams but it's time for that trend to buck. I went back and looked at the last 26 times the Colts lost at home by double digits (like they did last week) and in the following game the UNDER hit 21 of 26 times whether on the road or at home. Dating back to last season, and despite Andrew Luck not playing in those games, the UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 regular season games for the Colts. I see a lot less points than most expect here.

    Trend of the Game: the UNDER is 21-5 ATS in the last 26 Colts games following a double digit loss at home.


    Washington 24, Indianapolis 14




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    Carolina-Atlanta 'UNDER' 43.5 (10 Units)

    This game qualifies as the sucker line of the week in totals. The expectation is for a shootout but hold on a second here. Carolina scored only 16 points in Dallas last week and now they come into Atlanta who were on the road for the opener, who had an entire week and a half to prepare for this game defensively and who allowed only 232 total yards of offense on only 3.7 yards per play in Week 1. Nick Foles had a QB Rating of only 52.0 against the Falcons defense and I'm not sure QB Cam Newton (80.0 QB Rating in Week 1) is going to do any better. It will be a struggle for the Carolina offense.

    The Atlanta Falcons are going to load up on Coleman running out of the backfield and that should keep clock possession and ball control in this one. QB Matt Ryan was awful in Week 1 and although his velocity should be back and up and normal outside of the humidity he experienced in Philadelphia, I'm just not convinced he came come out of his funk that saw him record a QB Rating of 54.9 in Week 1. The Panthers defense allowed some big play but they allowed only 8 points and played well enough to keep the hometown Cowboys off the board for the most part. QB Dak Prescott had a QB Rating of only 76.5 in that game.

    Take a look back at the last 10 meetings and you will see the UNDER go 8-1-1. Wow! Why would the trend stop? The last 8 games Atlanta has played versus NFC opponents have gone UNDER and the UNDER has hit in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Carolina is a team that can put numbers up but their last 5 September games have been somewhat low scoring and 4 of them have hit on the UNDER. I see that a good percentage of the betting public went with the OVER so I am going the other way and following the hot trends.

    Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.


    Carolina 19, Atlanta 16




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    Kansas City-Pittsburgh 'UNDER' 52 (10 Units)




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    Is Mariota even playing today?
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