NFL week 3

Last week recap

Contest 2 pts YTD 4.5
Plays 4-5 -$787 YTD 6-10 -$1012


Jeez that was a bad week and I knew not to get sucked into to overreaction plays but in fact going the opposite way on those plays hurt me As i loose fading KC, TENN and the Bears.

I am begin to think Bill Obrien is bad coach - all that talent and they always seem to come up short - yes lots of injuries but man they frustrate me.

So on to week 3.

Who is for real and who is on the way out - Seattle 0-2 Houston 0-2 & KC 2-0 have yet to play home games. Denver 2-0 and NO 1-1 play their first road games

Arizona, Buffalo, and the Giants look lost already. Tampa, Miami, INDY & Cinncy look like surprise teams off to fast starts & but what about MINNY, Philly , NE ....Question marks around SF, Wash, Det, Denver (let see them OTR) Pitt, -

The Jaqs , Rams & KC are who we thought they were

Which team has surprised you so far?

WEEK 3 - MY Notes

Teams that open above their Power rating continue to disappoint going 14-22 in week - those teams are CLEV, HOU, PITT, and CHIC.

Watch out for FAVS with low support 40% or but their line moves up & FAVS with greater than 70% support...those are negative plays on my chart
Division dogs are 18-12 in this week so still a strong play but only two of them Tenn and NO

OPENING PLAYS WEEK 3

TAMPA +2 $216...I actually had Tampa Favoured by 5
CLEV ML $322....If it wasn't for the idiot kicker Clev would be 2-0 & this line would higher i'll just stick with ML
COLTS +6 $106...Sharp Andrew Luck vs Rusty Wentz
CHARGERS +7 $113....last year the rams went 1/2-3 vs competitive PO teams this year...& 3/1-3 at home...I say the chargers stick around and maybe win!

Have a good week guys will post final thoughts later in the week.

powerz

I like your picks. I'm watching that Colts game closely. I'm hoping the public hops on Carson Wentz and moves that line. You might be able to get 6.5 or 7 closer to game time

Thanks Fortune - you are probably right if it does I will add for sure, as it is only a one unit play so far. but this is a tune up game for Wentz non-conf home game


Adding MIAMI -3 $-125

I also like Baltimore to dispatch Denver this week but the -5 has me second guessing...may just play them SU

Nice win for Clev as they cover too but my Money Line plays $200 back.

Most of my early week plays did not make except INDY, the SC card which is

INDY +6.5 - Nothing I read and see about this game has me changing my opinion. Maybe the Eagles get another But cringing 1 or 2 pt ATS wins but i think the colts back door them b/c Luck dont quit and the Eagles D is thin
WASH +2.5 - Love when they hang this line in the contest and Green bay is great at home but .300 OTR, Rodgers on that bad stick in the long Grass in Washington????? Add in The SKINS off a bad loss
SAINTS +3 - Wow holding my nose here as the saints are a bad 0-2 ATS, but ATL has not been great so like the Divisional dog & the ML on ATL is low at -140, the books know the Saints could win this game.
VIKINGS -16.5 - Going with a FH wager here - The vikes have the rams next week on THURSDAY. This game will be over by half time. AKA Balt Week one - What a cruel schedule Buffalo has face the first 3 weeks you could say they are all PO teams
PATS -7 - Well this is has worked before, Pats off a bad loss , Belicheat agst a former asst, If there is truly discord in DET who were down 30-13 to SF last week before SF stopped playing the 4th not sure they raise up for PAtririca this week in fact they may roll over again in the spot light why not they did it once. Or maybe I am wrong as this is a sign of the end of the NE dynasty -7 is too much to over for the dark lords .

Still standing by Tampa and but may buy my Chargers bet back....

PWZ...….have a solid wk and contest buddy....on Indy and Pats with you...…….BOL...….indy

good luck