Week 4: Down 17 Units…Fade?

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I thought I knew what I was doing, but last week makes me question that. Lost 14.15 and now YTD: 16-19, - 17.3 units


I'm still going to play the following games and have shorter write-ups, but this is just what I'm thinking on each game.

Like all three tonight:

1* Illinois +27.5 This line is about what we'd see last year on a game in Illinois, where PSU was better and Illinois was worse. Penn State is coming off two blowout wins, and now travel to a game that precedes their more meaningful games in the Big 10(Ohio State next week). I still think they are a bit overrated since App. State should have beaten them, Pitt spiraled out of control vs. PSU, and a terrible Kent State team has no chance talent-wise. Illinois starting QB is still questionable to play, but their running game should keep them in the game for a while, and burn up clock. I think Penn State goes pretty vanilla here.

1* FAU +14 Too much love for UCF, although their defense is about as bad as FAU's. FAU's blowout to Oklahoma is what is sitting out there on everyone's minds, but it was the 1H of the first game of the season vs. the most explosive offense, arguably, in the country. Remember UCF hasn't played anyone with a pulse, and FAU can run the ball enough to wear down the UCF defense. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the over here, but the number has gone a little high for my liking.

1* USC -4.5 We all know USC has offensive issues. Yet Wazzu hasn't been tested yet this year. They almost always drop an early season game, and this year's team, I think, is not as talented as the last two years. USC is in desperation mode, and I think their defense and running game steps up tonight. The different will be USC's ability to press coverage and upset the dink and dunk passing game of the Cougs. And pressure Minshew. The Cougar running game is not what it was last season. USC will have to win the special teams battles and run the ball well here. A large part of this play is that USC is at home, and in past years, has responded well when they look like they are at their lowest point.
 
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Good luck this week & the rest of the season. You are one of the very few cappers on this site that I respect their opinion on a game. I have complete confidence you will turn this around & have a profitable season as always!
 

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Sometimes you get into streaks. I would never fade myself. I think that's a bad idea. Just keep going at it. I don't know your betting history, but there are many ways to approach things. Bet less games. Or step up how much you bet on games you have real confidence in. Choice is yours GL
 

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Fred......you're a solid capper,...early in the season, turn around Sat...…..BOL with all your action buddy...…...indy
 

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Keep your head up! Its early. Lots of time to get a run going.

im going to the SC game this evening. The sentiment in L.A isnt great for the Trojans
Helton job security in question all week
Twitter and FB pages calling for his head, media also starting to question the hire.
The RB telling reporters that practice is lazy didnt help Helton at all.

Also fwiw the Coliseum is under construction eliminating a big chunk seats.
also reportedly only expecting a crowd of less then 40k tonight

I got it capped at SC 31- WSU 24. Of course im a homer.

FIGHT ON!
 

Biz

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Sometimes you get into streaks. I would never fade myself. I think that's a bad idea. Just keep going at it. I don't know your betting history, but there are many ways to approach things. Bet less games. Or step up how much you bet on games you have real confidence in. Choice is yours GL

Never bet less games if you have an edge.

Its a long season, the only record that matters is the final record not a 3 week record.

My record is not what I expected either, but it hasn't stopped me from firing on more games than any other weekend thus far.

You're very good and will be fine. Good luck this week.
 

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Your too good, we all have those days and weeks and sometimes months....

Keep on Keepen on!!!
 

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A lot of thanks to you posters above. I'm not fading myself, of course, but feeling it out this week with smaller plays. As Biz stated, I feel like I have an edge on games. A few plays here and there and you win some games to offset the losers that were unlucky beats.
 

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4* South Carolina -2.5 Got a feeling SC is on the verge of breaking into another level. They were manhandled by Georgia, but Georgia looks to be near Alabama in dominating. Vandy is coming off a tough loss to ND, Derek Mason is squabbling in the media with Brian Kelly, and I think there will be a bit of a post-Notre Dame hangover here. South Carolina HC Will Muschamp gets his defense prepped well for Vandy. The Commodores have been known for their streakiness, and I'm playing this as if they're about to streak downward. Vandy's defense is suspect, and they are acting too much like they have amoral victory last week. Like the young talent on SC too.
 

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2* Oregon State +6.5 I think there's a good chance they win this game. Cool, cloudy, possibly wet weather suits the Beavers better. Both of these teams have poor defenses, but Oregon State's D played so well 2nd half last week, I expect they'll continue to play better here. Arizona QB Tate passed often and well last week vs. So. Utah, but there is speculation that he has a nagging injury which will limit his running. Anyways, Oregon State has played extremely motivated for 60 minutes each game, and this is their best chance for a long needed PAC 12 victory. Their offense has been dynamic, and that includes the Ohio State game. Their freshman RB, Jefferson, and their two top WRs, are big play guys, and the the OL is the best they've had in 3-4 years. If they lose, they'll stay within the number. Tiny bit on the ML.
 

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2* Clemson -16 I don't think Clemson has covered yet this year. They do have enough offense to compete with Bama and Georgia, but it hasn't completely gelled yet. Mostly, I like this game because GT is very one dimensional…young, poor defense, lack of running game, and Clemson has to concentrate solely on the GT run game. Which, by the way, is looking underwhelming with Benson out for the year. Their QB throws like he plays for Army. Clemson has got to let Trevor Lawrence throw downfield more. They have no chance beating the other top 3-4 teams without that part of their game being developed.
 

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All of these are 1*, some on the low side. I'll try to say which ones.

1* Maryland -2.5 Lots of controversy surrounding Md. program concerning the death of their player. Durkin and a couple of his coaches may never return to college coaching. We'll see. But I think Maryland is one of those teams, that when motivated and ready, like the Texas game, can play better than expected. Minnesota has played well defensively, but I they have not played a game on the road, and also have a freshman QB on the road for his first time.

1* Pittsburgh -3(-120)
UNC HC Larry Fedora looks like a man about to bust an artery on the sidelines. He is too angry, too much on edge, and his players are showing that they are not playing well with this kind of pressure. ECU throttled UNC, and I don't think the UNC defense is as good as I thought they were. And offensively, they really don't have a serviceable QB. Pitt rebounded well from their PSU beat down, and they are also streaky. Pitt QB Kenny Pickett looks like an up and comer, and without GT's late 4th quarter scores, that game was not close.
 

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1* FSU/ NIU- under 45 Low number for a college game, but I'm not sure how FIU or FSU scores much, except on defense. NIU has a real QB problem, and can't run the ball this year like they have in the past. FSU will make a great effort to win this game and their defense will play inspired. However, NIU has decent D themselves, and FSU looks broken offensively. The OL is not the usual FSU bunch, and QB Francois looks shell-shocked. NIU might actually have better D than Syracuse.

2* Wake Forest +7 I think Kelly might play Ian Book and Wimbush this week, but neither one of them is giving much to the passing game. Wake Forest is well coached, at home, and everybody gets up for ND. The ND OL is down a couple of notches, and that should help Wake handle their running game. Wake pulls out all the stops offensively, hangs in there, and maybe wins this one. ND hasn't played all that well since the 1H vs. Michigan.
 

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1* Virginia -5.5 Like Bronco Mendenhall as a coach, and not so much Petrino. Bronco gets the most out of his talent, Petrino the least. I think Louisville has been playing s**t defense going back two years now, but Lamar Jackson kind of kept that in the background by his play. Virginia might have figured it out offensively. They lost a low scoring game vs. Indiana in a rain storm, but this is a team that also plays highly motivated every game, while UL plays "up" only when ahead.

1* La. Tech +20 Small 1* here. LSU seems to let up on these lesser teams, or doesn't get motivated. LSU offense is still work in progress, they play a vanilla package on both sides of the ball, and La. Tech has the 4th quarter for a back door if needed. La. Tech QB Ja'mar Smith is elusive enough to keep the LSU rush from sacking him too much, and has developed well as a passer.
 

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1* TCU -3 TCU will rebound here from last week's loss to OSU. They usually do, and besides Ohio State is THAT good. Texas is still somewhat rebuilding, has lenity of youth, and doesn't have the defensive speed to defend TCU playmakers.

1* Stanford -2.5 Small 1* here. Oregon has not played a defense even close to one this good. I like this more than a 1* but am hesitant due to the night game at Autzen effect, and that Stanford has dropped some road games they should win. Stanford real has no glaring weaknesses. Oregon running game will get stuffed a bit here.
 

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1* ODU +27.5 How did they arrange a home game with VT? Va. Tech is also likely on a down cycle, and although they are much better than ODU, I doubt they play for the kill here. ODU would be a much better team if they could get better QB play. It's a veteran team, and their D is decent, but they can't sustain a drive with their QB play. Small 1*

1* Nebraska +18 Michigan has feasted on two weaklings, but Nebraska should be able to physically match up here almost. Nebraska has a much better coaching situation now, and games like these really can be moral victories if they compete. Their starting QB has practiced this week and likely plays. Michigan is still suspect offensively. Some injuries too.
 

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1* Auburn 1H -19.5 If Auburn can't manhandle Arkansas here, Gus should find a new job. Arkansas looks like a Sun Belt team, and not a good one. UNT easily scored on them last week. Auburn smarting from last week's loss, but they are still a pretty complete team.

1* ASU +18 The Huskies are very good. Should have beaten Auburn, beat Utah on the road…but, that being said, they do not look like a killer team. Locker and his receivers do not look in synch,, and while the OL is better, it is not elite. ASU is playing good D, Manny Wilkins is playing well and can hit the big play, and they are finally coached well. Todd Graham was a mess.

May up these by tomorrow.
 

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Hang with 'em, o fred, you always provide a good read and plenty to think about.
 

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