I thought I knew what I was doing, but last week makes me question that. Lost 14.15 and now YTD: 16-19, - 17.3 units
I'm still going to play the following games and have shorter write-ups, but this is just what I'm thinking on each game.
Like all three tonight:
1* Illinois +27.5 This line is about what we'd see last year on a game in Illinois, where PSU was better and Illinois was worse. Penn State is coming off two blowout wins, and now travel to a game that precedes their more meaningful games in the Big 10(Ohio State next week). I still think they are a bit overrated since App. State should have beaten them, Pitt spiraled out of control vs. PSU, and a terrible Kent State team has no chance talent-wise. Illinois starting QB is still questionable to play, but their running game should keep them in the game for a while, and burn up clock. I think Penn State goes pretty vanilla here.
1* FAU +14 Too much love for UCF, although their defense is about as bad as FAU's. FAU's blowout to Oklahoma is what is sitting out there on everyone's minds, but it was the 1H of the first game of the season vs. the most explosive offense, arguably, in the country. Remember UCF hasn't played anyone with a pulse, and FAU can run the ball enough to wear down the UCF defense. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the over here, but the number has gone a little high for my liking.
1* USC -4.5 We all know USC has offensive issues. Yet Wazzu hasn't been tested yet this year. They almost always drop an early season game, and this year's team, I think, is not as talented as the last two years. USC is in desperation mode, and I think their defense and running game steps up tonight. The different will be USC's ability to press coverage and upset the dink and dunk passing game of the Cougs. And pressure Minshew. The Cougar running game is not what it was last season. USC will have to win the special teams battles and run the ball well here. A large part of this play is that USC is at home, and in past years, has responded well when they look like they are at their lowest point.
I'm still going to play the following games and have shorter write-ups, but this is just what I'm thinking on each game.
Like all three tonight:
1* Illinois +27.5 This line is about what we'd see last year on a game in Illinois, where PSU was better and Illinois was worse. Penn State is coming off two blowout wins, and now travel to a game that precedes their more meaningful games in the Big 10(Ohio State next week). I still think they are a bit overrated since App. State should have beaten them, Pitt spiraled out of control vs. PSU, and a terrible Kent State team has no chance talent-wise. Illinois starting QB is still questionable to play, but their running game should keep them in the game for a while, and burn up clock. I think Penn State goes pretty vanilla here.
1* FAU +14 Too much love for UCF, although their defense is about as bad as FAU's. FAU's blowout to Oklahoma is what is sitting out there on everyone's minds, but it was the 1H of the first game of the season vs. the most explosive offense, arguably, in the country. Remember UCF hasn't played anyone with a pulse, and FAU can run the ball enough to wear down the UCF defense. I wouldn't fault anyone for taking the over here, but the number has gone a little high for my liking.
1* USC -4.5 We all know USC has offensive issues. Yet Wazzu hasn't been tested yet this year. They almost always drop an early season game, and this year's team, I think, is not as talented as the last two years. USC is in desperation mode, and I think their defense and running game steps up tonight. The different will be USC's ability to press coverage and upset the dink and dunk passing game of the Cougs. And pressure Minshew. The Cougar running game is not what it was last season. USC will have to win the special teams battles and run the ball well here. A large part of this play is that USC is at home, and in past years, has responded well when they look like they are at their lowest point.