MistaFlava's College Football Week 4 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2018 MistaFlava's CFB Record: 6-4 ATS (+16.00 Units)

Went rogue the last couple of weeks after starting the season with a few plays in Week 1 but back at The Rx and looking to post winners. Will be keeping track of my record and plays here all season, hopefully these can be used to make educated decisions. Feel free to comment, critique or just shoot the shit.

Good luck to everyone

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Saturday, September 22


North Carolina Tar Heels +3 (10 Units)

The Pitt Panthers looked awful two weeks ago in primetime at home against Penn State so they obviously came out and played better against Georgia Tech last week in a big home win but this is their first road adventure of the 2018 season and North Carolina is a lot better defensively then the 32.0 points per game they have allowed now in their three games this season. The Heels allow only 4.8 yards per play and only 3.9 yards per carry on the ground which should slow down the Panthers running game (207 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry). Pitt averages 2 turnovers per game this season and the Heels are bound to get a few.

Injuries, suspensions and a hurricane have completely derailed the North Carolina Tar Heels season so far but they got a week off and they finally get to play a home game which should really change things around a bit for them. Their offense has been a mess averaging only 18.0 Points per game in two games played (both on the road) but Pitt is allowing 25.7 points per game in 2018 and their D has allowed a whopping 5.7 yards per play in three games. They have not been able to stop the run in any of their games which bodes well for a UNC squad averaging 5.2 yards per carry in their two losses. Penalties and turnovers will be the key to avoid for the Heels.

Look back at the series between these two and each of their last 7 meetings (since 2000) have finished within 7 points. North Carolina has won 5 straight against Pitt who have not beat the Heels since the 2009 season. This is a classic letdown spot for the Panthers who are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a game where they allow 20 points or less in their previous game. Also, after their last 7 wins, they have covered the spread only 1 time in their following game. North Carolina under coach Larry are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a week off and they have covered the spread in 21 of their last 28 at home versus a visiting team with a winning record. I think Fedora and his guys use the week off to be ready for this and win at home in a close one.

Trend of the Game: Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing 20 points or less in their previous game.


North Carolina 28, Pittsburgh 21




more to come...

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Texas A&M Aggies +26 (10 Units)

Jimbo Fisher gets to take his shot at the big bad Alabama Crimson Tide (and for those who watch Big Brother it's the Brett vs. Hayleigh battle) and Nick Saban and what could turn out to be a much better game than the spread in Vegas is telling us. Look no further than last year's very close home game for the Aggies where they held Bama to 27 points but lost 27-19. Despite not playing any real opponents the Aggies offense is averaging almost 600 total yards of offense per game on 7.5 yards per play in those games. I know the Tide defense is stout and even more stout at home but Jimbo has weapons and he has guts and that's exactly what you need when you come into this place.

The Crimson Tide have run through their first three opponents this season and come into this game 3-0 ATS on the year while averaging 56.7 points per game. Incredible stuff but again they face an Aggies defense that held them to only 27 points on the road last season and that so far this season is allowing only 15.0 points per game on 330.7 total yards per game although they have allowed some huge chunks of yardage against lesser opponents. Bama is an unstoppable train on offense but I will continue to refer back to Jimbo and his staff and what kind of gameplan they are going to come up with here. I think despite allowing big plays they will score enough to keep this close.

Over the last 5 or so years has there been a better college football team to bet on than Texas A&M? Now that they have their high profile coach that confirms it even more for me. Texas A&M comes into this game 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games played in the month of September and they too have a perfect 3-0 ATS record coming into this game as does Alabama. Looking back at last season the Crimson Tide finished the year going 1-4 ATS against SEC Conference opponents and we are going to find out quite a bit about them in this one. I don't want to say this will be a Jimbo Fisher win but he will make and keep things interesting. This number is WAY too high.

Trend of the Game: Texas A&M is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games played in September.


Alabama 38, Texas A&M 34




more to come...

Mr. Flava...…...BOL with all your action today buddy...…...indy

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UNLV Rebels +8 (10 Units)

This is a line I had my eye on when it first came out. The Rebels actually looked pretty damn good at USC in the opening week of the season despite the final score. In their last two games they have outyarded their two opponents by a combined 256 yards and they average 39.7 points per game on 6.2 yards per play in 2018. Arkansas State's defense, if you can call it that, has allowed 32.7 points per game on 6.1 yards per play so far this season. The Rebels pound the ball on the ground and average almost 350 rushing yards per game on 6.4 yards per carry which should be a tempo dictating factor in this game. Also the three QB's Arkansas State has faced this season average a QB Rating of 162.5 per game.

Arkansas State can also score and they will put up some big points in this game. Sure they average only 28.0 points per game this season but that's partially because they played at Alabama in Week 2 and came away with only 7 points while being outyarded by 208 total yards. UNLV is going to have trouble stopping Arkansas State in this one but the Rebels are also going to make some plays as they come in with 6 forced turnovers on the season. I also want to point out that Arkansas State average 11.3 penalties per game in 2018 costing them 101.3 yards per game. UNLV take only 3.7 penalties per game.

There is no recent history to discuss between these two teams but one thing I know is this is probably going to be a shootout and the Rebels will be ready. UNLV is an impressive 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games and they typically don't fail two cover the spread in consecutive games (5-0 ATS in their last five games coming off an ATS loss). Arkansas State is on an 0-4 ATS run at home, they have covered the spread in only 3 of their 11 September games the last few seasons and they are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games. UNLV keeps this close and wins.

Trend of the Game: UNLV is 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.


UNLV 46, Arkansas State 44




more to come...

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Marshall Thundering Herd +6 (10 Units)

NC State looks like the team to back here but look at their matchup last year, in North Carolina, and you will see that Marshall kept it a lot closer than the final score would show. NC State has been off for two weeks due to postponed games because of Hurricane Florence. That time off did wonders for UNC earlier today but will it do wonders for NC State? I'm not sure about that. Big difference playing at home and on the road. Marshall have also been off for two weeks but play at home. The Wolfpack have a powerful offense that averages 467.5 total yards and 6.6 yards per play but Marshall has been solid defensively allowing only 22.0 points per game and 315.5 total yards on 4.6 yards per play. This defense has a shot in this game. They have 5 takeaways in two games coming in.

The Marshall offense is going to have to do some work in this game and they will have to exploit the secondary of North Carolina State. Shouldn't be a problem. The Herd are averaging 275 passing yards per game on 7.2 yards per pass attempt while completing 61.8% of their passes. So far after two games, NC State's secondary has allowed 67.2% of passes against them to be completed and have yet to come up with an interception. Marshall has throw the ball more than they have run it in 2018 and they've had some pretty good protection. Even if they get down, Marshall will have opportunities to make some big plays and keep this game close to have a chance to win.

Go back and look at Marshall's record versus ACC Conference opponents. It's damn good. As a matter of fact they are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus ACC Conference opponents and the Thundering Herd are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games. They are also 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games played in September and as previously mentioned Marshall has covered 5 of their last 7 games coming off a week off. North Carolina State are only 2-5 ATS in their last seven September games and only 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games. I'm going Marshall as the home dog here.

Trend of the Game: Marshall is 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus ACC Conference opponents.


Marshall 24, North Carolina State 21




more to come...

adding one more for the night Eastern Michigan +10.5 (10 Units)


That's it for Week 4!

Took it easy this week, focused on a small card (by my standards) and more in-depth analysis of certain matchups and it paid off.


Week 4 Recap

North Carolina +3
Texas A&M +6
UNLV +8
Marshall +6
Eastern Michigan +10.5


4-1 ATS (+29.00 Units) this week!



Working late into the night on some NFL plays for tomorrow.




:toast:

Mr. Flava.....well done buddy...…..indy

MistaFlava said:

Took it easy this week, focused on a small card (by my standards) and more in-depth analysis of certain matchups and it paid off.


Week 4 Recap

North Carolina +3
Texas A&M +6
UNLV +8
Marshall +6
Eastern Michigan +10.5


4-1 ATS (+29.00 Units) this week!



Working late into the night on some NFL plays for tomorrow.




:toast:

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Solid work!