Best bets on Week 3 NFL games
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 3 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New Orleans
Sharp: Julio Jones was still sidelined Thursday after straining his calf, and while he says it's not a problem, you absolutely need to see his injury status in order to back the Falcons in this spot. Last week the Falcons defense was exposed by the Panthers, who ironically have a similar offense in 2018 to the Saints. New Orleans is far more explosive, but both have middling rushing games and throw the ball a lot to their top RB. Carolina's defense allowed the Falcons, who typically struggle in the red zone, to go 4-for-4 in Week 2's game. Atlanta's run defense ranks No. 31, which will be welcomed after the Saints struggled to run against the Browns.
Atlanta's offense runs through Jones, who was the only player targeted more than five times. The targets to Jones last week were not overly successful but should fare better against a Saints defense that ranks 30th defending opposing WR1s.
Pick: Lean Saints +3
Johnson: The Falcons red zone woes finally subsided this past Sunday as they converted touchdowns on four different occasions against the Panthers. I have been talking Atlanta up as a legitimate contender if the team could flip the script on its disastrous efficiency in the red zone. The results Sunday are just from one game, so we don't want to overreact, but it is something to keep an eye on in the near future.
My number for this game is right at -3 because I have been hesitant to downgrade the Saints after two poor showings against Buccaneers and Browns. This certainly could be a line that a month from now we are looking back surprised we were offered Atlanta -3, but until I see more evidence of change from both teams there isn't any reason to make drastic adjustments yet.
Pick: Pass
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Total: 55.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Kansas City
Sharp: Andy Reid has turned the Patrick Mahomes offense into a well-oiled machine just two weeks into the season. Currently, the Chiefs rank as the No. 1 overall offense with the top passing offense and special teams unit. However, the 49ers are not to be taken lightly. A big factor in this game is likely to be the absence of Eric Berry for the Chiefs defense. Kyle Shanahan is tremendous at scheming against weaknesses, and I envision him having success to his tight ends in the pass game. Additionally, Shanahan runs the most 21 personnel in the league, and the Chiefs defense has faced just two snaps from 21 all season, so they aren't as familiar with it as of yet.
In Week 1 the 49ers held the Vikings offense to only 4.8 yards per play and a 41 percent success rate. They didn't win, but in large part that was because of four turnovers. The fact the 49ers lost the game by just one score while losing the turnover battle by three turnovers was extremely promising. Last week against a weak Detroit team, the 49ers defense held the Lions to 5.1 yards per play and a 38 percent success rate through three quarters before allowing the Lions back in the game.
Pick: Lean San Francisco +6.5
Johnson: The Chiefs opened 4.5-point favorites at home to the 49ers and were immediately bet up to -6 or -6.5. My projections actually line up with the opener at 4.5, but you will be hard-pressed to find me lining up to bet against Kansas City again this week after their repeat performance in Pittsburgh. I'm taking the wait-and-see approach with the Chiefs as we gather more data from their upcoming games. I even found myself looking all over town in Las Vegas this past Sunday for the best Chiefs Super Bowl number while I was caught up in their early 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh. I decided it probably wouldn't be smart to jump the gun and remembered Kansas City's similar start just a year ago (5-0) before cooling off (they lost six of their next seven).
Despite a blistering start offensively (first in DVOA) and quality wins over the Chargers and Steelers, Kansas City still has the league's worst defense through two weeks (32nd in DVOA).
Pick: Pass
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins(-3)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Oakland
Sharp: Looking at the box score, it's hard to fathom how the Raiders lost in Week 2 against the Broncos. Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes for 9.0 yards per attempt and a 73 percent success rate, and Oakland's defense held the Broncos passing offense to just 5.7 yards per attempt and a 36 percent success rate. But Oakland couldn't hold on to the win at altitude and now heads down into Miami in the extreme heat and humidity. In the second half of the game in Denver, the Raiders averaged 4.7 yards per carry and a 68 percent success rate on the ground.
The Dolphins are a surprisingly strong team per the metrics over the first two weeks, with a defense that ranks No. 1 overall and against the pass. If they are able to keep that up against the Raiders, it will force Carr to deliver against a much more difficult secondary than he faced last week in Denver. With the Dolphins defense ranking No. 1 in the red zone, I see Oakland having trouble putting up points.
Pick: Raiders team total under 20.5
Johnson: I was close to backing the Raiders this past Sunday but ultimately wanted a reasonably juiced +7 before I fired on it. They wound up playing great from the get-go but choked away a lead and lost 20-19 on Denver's late field goal. This is another situation where I am waiting for a little more before the numbers suggest to back Oakland. The current market outlook is that the Dolphins are pushing -3.5, so if we get the hook with the Raiders, I'll be taking it. Oakland is tied for the sixth-best offensive output in the league at 6.2 yards per play. There is no reason to expect the Raiders won't be able to continue similar production against Miami after doing it against the Rams and Broncos defenses.
Pick: Lean Raiders +3, pick at +3.5
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings(-16.5)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Minnesota
Sharp: There is little point in delving too much into this matchup. Returning home after a disappointing result in Green Bay, the Vikings will look to drill the Bills and their rookie QB Josh Allen. Last week the Chargers rolled up a 28-6 halftime lead on the shoulders of passing the ball for 11.1 yards per attempt and an 88 percent success rate. There is little doubt that at home, Kirk Cousins and his talented receiving corps should be able to dominate against the Bills secondary.
Buffalo's offense averaged 0.8 yards per carry on the ground in the first half, putting 100 percent of the burden on Allen's shoulders, and that certainly won't do in Minnesota against this angry defense. This game is expected to get ugly -- and it should.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: My number before the season started for this matchup would have been Minnesota -15.5. I was already ultra-bearish on the Bills coming in. I've still made some adjustments for Buffalo but not nearly as severe as the majority out there. My true line in this game is -17.3, and I would only look at the Vikings side if I had to make a play. Fortunately, I do not.
Sometimes the best decision is passing on a game, and in this case I think a lot of people will claim that the number is too high and an overreaction to how poorly the Bills have played through two weeks, but I ultimately think this is lined fairly. No point in getting cute here.
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Philadelphia
Sharp: In a battle of coaches familiar with one another, the Colts actually have the healthier QB as Carson Wentz attempts to start for the first time this year. The Eagles' strength is their defensive line, but the style of the Colts offense makes it very difficult to exploit, since Luck gets the ball out as quickly as he does.
Still, there are numerous injury issues with the Colts offense. T.Y. Hilton has missed two straight practices and both TE Jack Doyle and LT Anthony Castonzomissed practice on Thursday. Hilton and Doyle are the top receiving options for the Colts offense, so it's impossible to suggest rolling with them until we see the final injury status.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense has struggled through two weeks of Nick Foles starts. They have also dealt with a number of injuries, including at the WR position and RB position. The Colts were far better than expected in their Week 2 game, while the Eagles were far worse. I think that removed value from the Colts at anything below seven, and with the injury situation in flux, I must pass.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: I was shocked to see the Eagles open up 6.5-point favorites at home to the Colts, and then for the line to be pushed down to -6 Monday morning at multiple shops. We recommended a play on the Eagles at -6 in my column Tuesday and the current -6.5 is plenty worthwhile as well. This is still an Indianapolis team that ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency so far this season. I wrote Friday in the Colts/Redskins preview that final scores can often times be deceiving. Most of us didn't realize initially how poorly the Colts played in Week 1 because they had a lead early in the fourth quarter, but the Bengals actually gained 6.6 yards per play on offense (just as much as the Chiefs, which tied for the fourth best output that week).
Despite a win in Washington this past Sunday, the Colts were a net +0.0 yards per play. We know what this Eagles team is capable of, and it's certainly more than whatever the Redskins have to offer (sorry, fans). This 6-point spread is the same number Indianapolis was getting this past week in Washington.
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Washington Redskins
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Green Bay
Sharp: Last week the Colts were able to nickel and dime the Redskins defense with short, quick pass plays and efficient, timely rushes that were productive. They lost the turnover battle and still won by double digits as a six-point underdog. The bigger surprise, after pasting the Cardinals in the previous game, was the fact the Redskins offense could not score a single touchdown and allowed the Colts to go 3-for-3 in the red zone. Adrian Peterson was not able to be productive against the No. 13 run defense of the Colts, but now gets to face the No. 26 run defense of the Packers.
Green Bay's offense was good enough to move the ball on the strong Vikings defense, and most of that came on the ground. In the first half, Rodgers averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt in the first half and delivered a 39 percent success rate, while the Packers built their lead thanks to 5.4 yards per carry and a 70 percent success rate. I'm fascinated to watch the pressure that the Redskins tend to apply to opposing QBs and how it will affect Rodgers, who is now wearing a bulkier brace on his knee.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: Long-term, I don't like either of these teams much. The Packers are extremely fortunate not to be 0-2 to start the year, and the Redskins' win over the Cardinals in Week 1 isn't looking nearly as impressive after seeing the Rams embarrass Arizona this past week and Washington lose at home to the Colts. My number for this game is Packers -2.2, so there isn't enough to make a play on the side in the current market. I did, however, get some money on the under in this game at 47.5. The move down two points is pretty strong, but if this climbs back up at all later in the week, then this is a buy on under at 47 or better.
Pick: Lean under 45.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Cincinnati
Sharp: The Panthers held the anemic Cowboys offense in check Week 1 but allowed Matt Ryan to deliver a hyper-efficient 23-of-28 for 9.7 yards per attempt and a 68 percent success rate in Week 2. Carolina's defense also faltered on the ground as the Panthers allowed Tevin Coleman to average 6.7 yards per carry and hit a 50 percent success rate. The Bengals likely won't have the luxury to run often against the Panthers, as they'll be without starting RB Joe Mixon. As such, they may need to rely more on the No. 6 passing offense.
Cam Newton has played quite well in new offensive coordinator Norv Turner's system. They are targeting Christian McCaffrey early and often, and he is delivering. In order to compete against a strong Bengals defense, the Panthers will need another receiver to step up beyond McCaffrey and Devin Funchess. Last week it was Jarius Wright, with a 71 percent receiving success rate and 8.9 yards per attempt.
Pick: Lean Bengals +3
Johnson: I would have made this game Panthers -5.5 before the season, but with some adjustments to Cincinnati the past two weeks and the loss of Greg Olsen for Carolina, I have this closer to -4. I'd be jumping in to take the Panthers at -2.5 or better, but I currently show a bigger edge betting the total over 43.5 at this point in the week. I have this projected at 45.9 points, and with a 44 and 45 both being key numbers in a total lined in this range, getting a 43.5 offers us a nice opportunity. When adjusted for the strength of the defenses both of these teams have faced to this point in the season, both Carolina and Cincinnati's offensive metrics improve (ranked 13th and 10th respectively anyway in offensive efficiency).
Pick: Over 43.5
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Denver
Sharp: The first thing that might come to mind when thinking about both these teams is their defense, but each of them has a secret. Denver's secondary is a big problem that not many people know about yet. Derek Carr became the first QB in NFL history to complete at least 90 percent of his passes while attempting at least 27 throws. Carr finished with an insane 29-of-32 for 9.0 yards per attempt and a 73 percent success rate. The other factor is that the Broncos may be the NFL's best run funnel team in the league right now: Denver ranks No. 1 in run defense but 26th in pass defense through two weeks.
With regard to the Ravens, their pass defense is a major liability without CB Jimmy Smith, who is still out with a suspension. The past two years, they rank No. 4 in passing success and No. 1 in interception rate with Smith; without him, they rank No. 29 in passing success and No. 31 in interception rate.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Ravens followed their Week 1 thrashing of the Bills up with an immediate 21-0 deficit in Cincinnati in the Thursday night game. They fought back and made it a one-possession game late in the fourth quarter but to no avail. Baltimore outgained Cincinnati and had more first downs, but three turnovers (as well as two more turnovers on downs) is what swung the game. The Broncos found themselves down at home to the Raiders in Week 2, but successfully completed their comeback attempt and won 20-19 on a late field goal. I initially anticipated my numbers to make this game quite a bit lower, but my output for this matchup is Ravens -4.5. Grabbing a +5.5 isn't a profitable play with the insignificance that the number 5 plays in football. I'd likely need a +6.5 before I decided to jump in and back Denver.
Pick: Pass.
New York Giants at Houston Texans(-6)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Houston
Sharp: The Giants looked terrible in prime time on Sunday night, trailing 20-3 before a late rally made the final score closer. Overall, the Giants offense gained a mere 3.8 yards per play and produced just a 39 percent success rate. Eli Manning completed 75 percent of passes, but those were of the very short variety, targeting Saquon Barkley 16 times. On third down, Manning targeted his RBs on five of a total 12 attempts, and only one of those was successful. I'm higher on this Giants team than the scoreboard has indicated.
The Texans were fortunate last week to get a Titans team without its starting QB. Thanks to an early 14-0 lead, Tennessee was able to go into a run shell and nearly lost the game, but the Texans offense did not look very good, averaging just a 45 percent success rate with Watson taking four sacks on the day. I'm passing here because the Giants defense is beat up, and was missing Eli Appleand Olivier Vernon from practices this week.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Giants couldn't do anything Sunday night until the Cowboys went into prevent mode toward the end of the fourth quarter. Eli looks as slow as any starting quarterback in the league, and the offensive line isn't helping his case at all either, allowing six sacks in this game alone. The Texans, unfortunately, had to begin their 2018 campaign with back-to-back road games in New England and Tennessee. This seems like a nice spot to back Houston in their home opener with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney wreaking havoc on Eli and his suspect offensive line.
The current market number at -6 however is really close to my true line (-6.4). This is one of the reasons why it is so important to have your own numbers to refer to throughout the season. As good as a particular "spot" may look, it's imperative to be able to tell if these variables are being accounted for in the market number. In this case, it looks fair to me.
Pick: Pass.
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Los Angeles Rams
Sharp: The Chargers offense has been exceedingly fortunate to face the defenses of the Chiefs and Bills, who rank No. 32 and No. 30 respectively. Now they must take on the No. 3-ranked Rams stop unit. These two teams are mirror images from the perspective that neither has a TE that they use frequently on offense. The Chargers rely primarily on WR targets and a lot of RB targets compared to the NFL average. Their RB targets are averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and converting a 61 percent success rate, but the Rams are allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt to RBs, seventh best in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams offense has yet to be tested. Their slow start against the Raiders in the first half was primarily a result of major rust due to zero preseason work. They were tremendous offensively in the second half, and in their second game against the Cardinals it wasn't even a fair fight. The Chargers have a good secondary, but with pass-rusher Joey Bosa and DT Corey Liuget both absent, they are weak up front and can get worn down by the Rams, who operate with tempo.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Chargers opened +7 at the Rams in this make-believe crosstown rivalry. I personally make the Chargers +5.7, so the move down off of a key number I believe is warranted. My projection accounts for a full home-field advantage for the Rams, which may be a little extreme in this instance. If I asked people who the three best offenses in the NFL are this season, I would wager the majority would get Tampa Bay and Kansas City; that the majority would also miss on the third team: the LA Chargers.
It is only two games -- and against the Chiefs and Bills -- but this Chargers squad put up similar production last season (fourth most efficient offense in the NFL). This is no fluke. I'm willing to bet they keep this within a touchdown Sunday.
Pick: Chargers +7
Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Chicago
Sharp: The Bears have proved two things in their first two games this year: They have a great defense and they have great offensive scripting to start the game; after that first quarter, Chicago's really struggles. In the first quarter against the Seahawks, the Bears offense averaged a 63 percent success rate and 5.7 yards per play. After the first quarter, their success rate dropped to 51 percent and they averaged only 3.8 yards per play. The story was similar against the Packers in Week 1, where the Bears produced a 67 percent success rate and 7.7 yards per play in the first quarter -- and a 38 percent success rate and 3.2 yards per play over the final three quarters.
This is a matchup between the No. 31 offense of the Cardinals and the No. 4 defense of the Bears. The Cardinals may pull a Baker Mayfield and insert Josh Rosen before this game ends in order to prevent the boo-birds from getting on the team after they trail at halftime. But the problem with the Bears is that since the Cardinals run defense ranks No. 14, they should be able to hang in this game in the second half, leaving the back door open.
Lean: Bears first quarter (line TBD)
Johnson: In my column on Tuesday, I wrote about Arizona being my "sell" team of the weekend. The Cardinals have a worse net yards per play than the Bills through two games and Sam Bradford is checking down at a rate that would be boring in the 1950s. I mentioned that these are generally teams that I stay away from until I see signs and evidence of improvement. Obviously there is a threshold where I would be betting a team like the Cardinals or the Bills anyway; if the discrepancy between my number and the market is big enough then I would still ultimately consider it.
The Cardinals at +7 this week is that threshold. I saw it reach +6.5 a couple of days ago and dreaded potentially having to back this team with money. Sharp action came in however as soon as it hit 6.5 and pushed this down to 5.5 or 5 around town. The Bears played another elite game defensively against the Seahawks Monday night, and the only look in this Week 3 matchup for me would be the under. At 38 it's a pass, but if it were to climb back up near the early-week opener of 40 at some point this weekend then that would be my buy point on an under play.
Pick: Pass
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-2)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Seattle
Sharp: The Seattle offense is the only thing distracting us from measuring how bad this defense has been, and that means this offense has been miserable. It's in large part due to coaching. Pete Carroll has been trying to get involved in managing the RBs and arguing the team needs to stick to the run more. Meanwhile, Brian Schottenheimer is one of the most run-heavy coordinators in the NFL with seemingly little imagination or care to be innovative via using analytics to help deliver +EV decision making.
They get to meet another offense which similarly makes -EV decisions in the Cowboys. Dallas is very predictable on first downs in the first half, running the ball 61 percent of the time in those situations. That should be predictable for a Seahawks defense which ranks No. 15 against the run. The hidden element of the Cowboys is their defense, which ranks No. 3 in pass rush and No. 9 against the pass. Unfortunately, this line is set well, and I don't see enough value on either the side or total.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: My projections for this game are Seahawks -1.0 and 41.1. I considered backing Seattle earlier this week when they were +1, but I personally think the matchup with the Dallas defense (second most efficient in the league) is particularly bad for a Seattle offensive line that has given up the most sacks (12) through two weeks. A move came in on Seattle, regardless, earlier this week and now the majority of the market has the Seahawks favored by 1.5. In a game we don't anticipate to see many points, a profitable angle would be using the Cowboys in a 6-point teaser to +7.5 crossing key numbers like 3, 4, 6 and 7.
Pick: Cowboys +7.5 as a teaser option.
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 3 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
Total: 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent New Orleans
Sharp: Julio Jones was still sidelined Thursday after straining his calf, and while he says it's not a problem, you absolutely need to see his injury status in order to back the Falcons in this spot. Last week the Falcons defense was exposed by the Panthers, who ironically have a similar offense in 2018 to the Saints. New Orleans is far more explosive, but both have middling rushing games and throw the ball a lot to their top RB. Carolina's defense allowed the Falcons, who typically struggle in the red zone, to go 4-for-4 in Week 2's game. Atlanta's run defense ranks No. 31, which will be welcomed after the Saints struggled to run against the Browns.
Atlanta's offense runs through Jones, who was the only player targeted more than five times. The targets to Jones last week were not overly successful but should fare better against a Saints defense that ranks 30th defending opposing WR1s.
Pick: Lean Saints +3
Johnson: The Falcons red zone woes finally subsided this past Sunday as they converted touchdowns on four different occasions against the Panthers. I have been talking Atlanta up as a legitimate contender if the team could flip the script on its disastrous efficiency in the red zone. The results Sunday are just from one game, so we don't want to overreact, but it is something to keep an eye on in the near future.
My number for this game is right at -3 because I have been hesitant to downgrade the Saints after two poor showings against Buccaneers and Browns. This certainly could be a line that a month from now we are looking back surprised we were offered Atlanta -3, but until I see more evidence of change from both teams there isn't any reason to make drastic adjustments yet.
Pick: Pass
San Francisco 49ers at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5)
Total: 55.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent Kansas City
Sharp: Andy Reid has turned the Patrick Mahomes offense into a well-oiled machine just two weeks into the season. Currently, the Chiefs rank as the No. 1 overall offense with the top passing offense and special teams unit. However, the 49ers are not to be taken lightly. A big factor in this game is likely to be the absence of Eric Berry for the Chiefs defense. Kyle Shanahan is tremendous at scheming against weaknesses, and I envision him having success to his tight ends in the pass game. Additionally, Shanahan runs the most 21 personnel in the league, and the Chiefs defense has faced just two snaps from 21 all season, so they aren't as familiar with it as of yet.
In Week 1 the 49ers held the Vikings offense to only 4.8 yards per play and a 41 percent success rate. They didn't win, but in large part that was because of four turnovers. The fact the 49ers lost the game by just one score while losing the turnover battle by three turnovers was extremely promising. Last week against a weak Detroit team, the 49ers defense held the Lions to 5.1 yards per play and a 38 percent success rate through three quarters before allowing the Lions back in the game.
Pick: Lean San Francisco +6.5
Johnson: The Chiefs opened 4.5-point favorites at home to the 49ers and were immediately bet up to -6 or -6.5. My projections actually line up with the opener at 4.5, but you will be hard-pressed to find me lining up to bet against Kansas City again this week after their repeat performance in Pittsburgh. I'm taking the wait-and-see approach with the Chiefs as we gather more data from their upcoming games. I even found myself looking all over town in Las Vegas this past Sunday for the best Chiefs Super Bowl number while I was caught up in their early 21-0 lead in Pittsburgh. I decided it probably wouldn't be smart to jump the gun and remembered Kansas City's similar start just a year ago (5-0) before cooling off (they lost six of their next seven).
Despite a blistering start offensively (first in DVOA) and quality wins over the Chargers and Steelers, Kansas City still has the league's worst defense through two weeks (32nd in DVOA).
Pick: Pass
Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins(-3)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Oakland
Sharp: Looking at the box score, it's hard to fathom how the Raiders lost in Week 2 against the Broncos. Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes for 9.0 yards per attempt and a 73 percent success rate, and Oakland's defense held the Broncos passing offense to just 5.7 yards per attempt and a 36 percent success rate. But Oakland couldn't hold on to the win at altitude and now heads down into Miami in the extreme heat and humidity. In the second half of the game in Denver, the Raiders averaged 4.7 yards per carry and a 68 percent success rate on the ground.
The Dolphins are a surprisingly strong team per the metrics over the first two weeks, with a defense that ranks No. 1 overall and against the pass. If they are able to keep that up against the Raiders, it will force Carr to deliver against a much more difficult secondary than he faced last week in Denver. With the Dolphins defense ranking No. 1 in the red zone, I see Oakland having trouble putting up points.
Pick: Raiders team total under 20.5
Johnson: I was close to backing the Raiders this past Sunday but ultimately wanted a reasonably juiced +7 before I fired on it. They wound up playing great from the get-go but choked away a lead and lost 20-19 on Denver's late field goal. This is another situation where I am waiting for a little more before the numbers suggest to back Oakland. The current market outlook is that the Dolphins are pushing -3.5, so if we get the hook with the Raiders, I'll be taking it. Oakland is tied for the sixth-best offensive output in the league at 6.2 yards per play. There is no reason to expect the Raiders won't be able to continue similar production against Miami after doing it against the Rams and Broncos defenses.
Pick: Lean Raiders +3, pick at +3.5
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings(-16.5)
Total: 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 69 percent Minnesota
Sharp: There is little point in delving too much into this matchup. Returning home after a disappointing result in Green Bay, the Vikings will look to drill the Bills and their rookie QB Josh Allen. Last week the Chargers rolled up a 28-6 halftime lead on the shoulders of passing the ball for 11.1 yards per attempt and an 88 percent success rate. There is little doubt that at home, Kirk Cousins and his talented receiving corps should be able to dominate against the Bills secondary.
Buffalo's offense averaged 0.8 yards per carry on the ground in the first half, putting 100 percent of the burden on Allen's shoulders, and that certainly won't do in Minnesota against this angry defense. This game is expected to get ugly -- and it should.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: My number before the season started for this matchup would have been Minnesota -15.5. I was already ultra-bearish on the Bills coming in. I've still made some adjustments for Buffalo but not nearly as severe as the majority out there. My true line in this game is -17.3, and I would only look at the Vikings side if I had to make a play. Fortunately, I do not.
Sometimes the best decision is passing on a game, and in this case I think a lot of people will claim that the number is too high and an overreaction to how poorly the Bills have played through two weeks, but I ultimately think this is lined fairly. No point in getting cute here.
Pick: Pass
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 66 percent picked Philadelphia
Sharp: In a battle of coaches familiar with one another, the Colts actually have the healthier QB as Carson Wentz attempts to start for the first time this year. The Eagles' strength is their defensive line, but the style of the Colts offense makes it very difficult to exploit, since Luck gets the ball out as quickly as he does.
Still, there are numerous injury issues with the Colts offense. T.Y. Hilton has missed two straight practices and both TE Jack Doyle and LT Anthony Castonzomissed practice on Thursday. Hilton and Doyle are the top receiving options for the Colts offense, so it's impossible to suggest rolling with them until we see the final injury status.
On the other side of the ball, the Eagles offense has struggled through two weeks of Nick Foles starts. They have also dealt with a number of injuries, including at the WR position and RB position. The Colts were far better than expected in their Week 2 game, while the Eagles were far worse. I think that removed value from the Colts at anything below seven, and with the injury situation in flux, I must pass.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: I was shocked to see the Eagles open up 6.5-point favorites at home to the Colts, and then for the line to be pushed down to -6 Monday morning at multiple shops. We recommended a play on the Eagles at -6 in my column Tuesday and the current -6.5 is plenty worthwhile as well. This is still an Indianapolis team that ranks 26th in offensive efficiency and 15th in defensive efficiency so far this season. I wrote Friday in the Colts/Redskins preview that final scores can often times be deceiving. Most of us didn't realize initially how poorly the Colts played in Week 1 because they had a lead early in the fourth quarter, but the Bengals actually gained 6.6 yards per play on offense (just as much as the Chiefs, which tied for the fourth best output that week).
Despite a win in Washington this past Sunday, the Colts were a net +0.0 yards per play. We know what this Eagles team is capable of, and it's certainly more than whatever the Redskins have to offer (sorry, fans). This 6-point spread is the same number Indianapolis was getting this past week in Washington.
Pick: Eagles -6.5
Green Bay Packers (-3) at Washington Redskins
Total: 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Green Bay
Sharp: Last week the Colts were able to nickel and dime the Redskins defense with short, quick pass plays and efficient, timely rushes that were productive. They lost the turnover battle and still won by double digits as a six-point underdog. The bigger surprise, after pasting the Cardinals in the previous game, was the fact the Redskins offense could not score a single touchdown and allowed the Colts to go 3-for-3 in the red zone. Adrian Peterson was not able to be productive against the No. 13 run defense of the Colts, but now gets to face the No. 26 run defense of the Packers.
Green Bay's offense was good enough to move the ball on the strong Vikings defense, and most of that came on the ground. In the first half, Rodgers averaged just 4.1 yards per attempt in the first half and delivered a 39 percent success rate, while the Packers built their lead thanks to 5.4 yards per carry and a 70 percent success rate. I'm fascinated to watch the pressure that the Redskins tend to apply to opposing QBs and how it will affect Rodgers, who is now wearing a bulkier brace on his knee.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: Long-term, I don't like either of these teams much. The Packers are extremely fortunate not to be 0-2 to start the year, and the Redskins' win over the Cardinals in Week 1 isn't looking nearly as impressive after seeing the Rams embarrass Arizona this past week and Washington lose at home to the Colts. My number for this game is Packers -2.2, so there isn't enough to make a play on the side in the current market. I did, however, get some money on the under in this game at 47.5. The move down two points is pretty strong, but if this climbs back up at all later in the week, then this is a buy on under at 47 or better.
Pick: Lean under 45.5
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Total: 43.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent Cincinnati
Sharp: The Panthers held the anemic Cowboys offense in check Week 1 but allowed Matt Ryan to deliver a hyper-efficient 23-of-28 for 9.7 yards per attempt and a 68 percent success rate in Week 2. Carolina's defense also faltered on the ground as the Panthers allowed Tevin Coleman to average 6.7 yards per carry and hit a 50 percent success rate. The Bengals likely won't have the luxury to run often against the Panthers, as they'll be without starting RB Joe Mixon. As such, they may need to rely more on the No. 6 passing offense.
Cam Newton has played quite well in new offensive coordinator Norv Turner's system. They are targeting Christian McCaffrey early and often, and he is delivering. In order to compete against a strong Bengals defense, the Panthers will need another receiver to step up beyond McCaffrey and Devin Funchess. Last week it was Jarius Wright, with a 71 percent receiving success rate and 8.9 yards per attempt.
Pick: Lean Bengals +3
Johnson: I would have made this game Panthers -5.5 before the season, but with some adjustments to Cincinnati the past two weeks and the loss of Greg Olsen for Carolina, I have this closer to -4. I'd be jumping in to take the Panthers at -2.5 or better, but I currently show a bigger edge betting the total over 43.5 at this point in the week. I have this projected at 45.9 points, and with a 44 and 45 both being key numbers in a total lined in this range, getting a 43.5 offers us a nice opportunity. When adjusted for the strength of the defenses both of these teams have faced to this point in the season, both Carolina and Cincinnati's offensive metrics improve (ranked 13th and 10th respectively anyway in offensive efficiency).
Pick: Over 43.5
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 53 percent Denver
Sharp: The first thing that might come to mind when thinking about both these teams is their defense, but each of them has a secret. Denver's secondary is a big problem that not many people know about yet. Derek Carr became the first QB in NFL history to complete at least 90 percent of his passes while attempting at least 27 throws. Carr finished with an insane 29-of-32 for 9.0 yards per attempt and a 73 percent success rate. The other factor is that the Broncos may be the NFL's best run funnel team in the league right now: Denver ranks No. 1 in run defense but 26th in pass defense through two weeks.
With regard to the Ravens, their pass defense is a major liability without CB Jimmy Smith, who is still out with a suspension. The past two years, they rank No. 4 in passing success and No. 1 in interception rate with Smith; without him, they rank No. 29 in passing success and No. 31 in interception rate.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Ravens followed their Week 1 thrashing of the Bills up with an immediate 21-0 deficit in Cincinnati in the Thursday night game. They fought back and made it a one-possession game late in the fourth quarter but to no avail. Baltimore outgained Cincinnati and had more first downs, but three turnovers (as well as two more turnovers on downs) is what swung the game. The Broncos found themselves down at home to the Raiders in Week 2, but successfully completed their comeback attempt and won 20-19 on a late field goal. I initially anticipated my numbers to make this game quite a bit lower, but my output for this matchup is Ravens -4.5. Grabbing a +5.5 isn't a profitable play with the insignificance that the number 5 plays in football. I'd likely need a +6.5 before I decided to jump in and back Denver.
Pick: Pass.
New York Giants at Houston Texans(-6)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Houston
Sharp: The Giants looked terrible in prime time on Sunday night, trailing 20-3 before a late rally made the final score closer. Overall, the Giants offense gained a mere 3.8 yards per play and produced just a 39 percent success rate. Eli Manning completed 75 percent of passes, but those were of the very short variety, targeting Saquon Barkley 16 times. On third down, Manning targeted his RBs on five of a total 12 attempts, and only one of those was successful. I'm higher on this Giants team than the scoreboard has indicated.
The Texans were fortunate last week to get a Titans team without its starting QB. Thanks to an early 14-0 lead, Tennessee was able to go into a run shell and nearly lost the game, but the Texans offense did not look very good, averaging just a 45 percent success rate with Watson taking four sacks on the day. I'm passing here because the Giants defense is beat up, and was missing Eli Appleand Olivier Vernon from practices this week.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Giants couldn't do anything Sunday night until the Cowboys went into prevent mode toward the end of the fourth quarter. Eli looks as slow as any starting quarterback in the league, and the offensive line isn't helping his case at all either, allowing six sacks in this game alone. The Texans, unfortunately, had to begin their 2018 campaign with back-to-back road games in New England and Tennessee. This seems like a nice spot to back Houston in their home opener with J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney wreaking havoc on Eli and his suspect offensive line.
The current market number at -6 however is really close to my true line (-6.4). This is one of the reasons why it is so important to have your own numbers to refer to throughout the season. As good as a particular "spot" may look, it's imperative to be able to tell if these variables are being accounted for in the market number. In this case, it looks fair to me.
Pick: Pass.
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-7.5)
Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Los Angeles Rams
Sharp: The Chargers offense has been exceedingly fortunate to face the defenses of the Chiefs and Bills, who rank No. 32 and No. 30 respectively. Now they must take on the No. 3-ranked Rams stop unit. These two teams are mirror images from the perspective that neither has a TE that they use frequently on offense. The Chargers rely primarily on WR targets and a lot of RB targets compared to the NFL average. Their RB targets are averaging 8.9 yards per attempt and converting a 61 percent success rate, but the Rams are allowing just 3.5 yards per attempt to RBs, seventh best in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams offense has yet to be tested. Their slow start against the Raiders in the first half was primarily a result of major rust due to zero preseason work. They were tremendous offensively in the second half, and in their second game against the Cardinals it wasn't even a fair fight. The Chargers have a good secondary, but with pass-rusher Joey Bosa and DT Corey Liuget both absent, they are weak up front and can get worn down by the Rams, who operate with tempo.
Pick: Pass
Johnson: The Chargers opened +7 at the Rams in this make-believe crosstown rivalry. I personally make the Chargers +5.7, so the move down off of a key number I believe is warranted. My projection accounts for a full home-field advantage for the Rams, which may be a little extreme in this instance. If I asked people who the three best offenses in the NFL are this season, I would wager the majority would get Tampa Bay and Kansas City; that the majority would also miss on the third team: the LA Chargers.
It is only two games -- and against the Chiefs and Bills -- but this Chargers squad put up similar production last season (fourth most efficient offense in the NFL). This is no fluke. I'm willing to bet they keep this within a touchdown Sunday.
Pick: Chargers +7
Chicago Bears (-5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Total: 38
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent Chicago
Sharp: The Bears have proved two things in their first two games this year: They have a great defense and they have great offensive scripting to start the game; after that first quarter, Chicago's really struggles. In the first quarter against the Seahawks, the Bears offense averaged a 63 percent success rate and 5.7 yards per play. After the first quarter, their success rate dropped to 51 percent and they averaged only 3.8 yards per play. The story was similar against the Packers in Week 1, where the Bears produced a 67 percent success rate and 7.7 yards per play in the first quarter -- and a 38 percent success rate and 3.2 yards per play over the final three quarters.
This is a matchup between the No. 31 offense of the Cardinals and the No. 4 defense of the Bears. The Cardinals may pull a Baker Mayfield and insert Josh Rosen before this game ends in order to prevent the boo-birds from getting on the team after they trail at halftime. But the problem with the Bears is that since the Cardinals run defense ranks No. 14, they should be able to hang in this game in the second half, leaving the back door open.
Lean: Bears first quarter (line TBD)
Johnson: In my column on Tuesday, I wrote about Arizona being my "sell" team of the weekend. The Cardinals have a worse net yards per play than the Bills through two games and Sam Bradford is checking down at a rate that would be boring in the 1950s. I mentioned that these are generally teams that I stay away from until I see signs and evidence of improvement. Obviously there is a threshold where I would be betting a team like the Cardinals or the Bills anyway; if the discrepancy between my number and the market is big enough then I would still ultimately consider it.
The Cardinals at +7 this week is that threshold. I saw it reach +6.5 a couple of days ago and dreaded potentially having to back this team with money. Sharp action came in however as soon as it hit 6.5 and pushed this down to 5.5 or 5 around town. The Bears played another elite game defensively against the Seahawks Monday night, and the only look in this Week 3 matchup for me would be the under. At 38 it's a pass, but if it were to climb back up near the early-week opener of 40 at some point this weekend then that would be my buy point on an under play.
Pick: Pass
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-2)
Total: 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Seattle
Sharp: The Seattle offense is the only thing distracting us from measuring how bad this defense has been, and that means this offense has been miserable. It's in large part due to coaching. Pete Carroll has been trying to get involved in managing the RBs and arguing the team needs to stick to the run more. Meanwhile, Brian Schottenheimer is one of the most run-heavy coordinators in the NFL with seemingly little imagination or care to be innovative via using analytics to help deliver +EV decision making.
They get to meet another offense which similarly makes -EV decisions in the Cowboys. Dallas is very predictable on first downs in the first half, running the ball 61 percent of the time in those situations. That should be predictable for a Seahawks defense which ranks No. 15 against the run. The hidden element of the Cowboys is their defense, which ranks No. 3 in pass rush and No. 9 against the pass. Unfortunately, this line is set well, and I don't see enough value on either the side or total.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: My projections for this game are Seahawks -1.0 and 41.1. I considered backing Seattle earlier this week when they were +1, but I personally think the matchup with the Dallas defense (second most efficient in the league) is particularly bad for a Seattle offensive line that has given up the most sacks (12) through two weeks. A move came in on Seattle, regardless, earlier this week and now the majority of the market has the Seahawks favored by 1.5. In a game we don't anticipate to see many points, a profitable angle would be using the Cowboys in a 6-point teaser to +7.5 crossing key numbers like 3, 4, 6 and 7.
Pick: Cowboys +7.5 as a teaser option.
