Belterra 9-22-2018

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

Belterra 9-22-2018

race #1 - 8f
... many pace scenario possibilities when you have just 2 speed horses going a mile, so upsets do loom.
#5 5-2 PERFECT COMIC - likely speediest
#3 9-2 MOMMA'S GIFT - catbird seat would be optimum
#2 5-1 ALWAYS AMAZED - price could drift upwards, spotted for action with Sarvis

race #2 - 8f turf
#4 5-1 SALVATION'S SONG
#5 10-1 SUN DRESS - should be better
#6 30-1 MUSHABOOM - bomb alert
#13 20-1 SYLVESTER YOLY

race #3 - 6f
... cannot decide between my top 2.
#7 4-1 OFTEN ENOUGH - jock+ ... gonna get a kick in the Ouzts
#2 7-2 THE BIG GAMBLER
#4 5-2 BROMEO

... rest to follow very shortly, scratches posted late today ...

Lt1 · Sep 22, 2018

Good luck Prof

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

race #4 - 8f turf
#7 3-1 BEAUTIFY
#4 5-1 REDHOT KATIE
#11 8-1 HIGH FIRE
#10 12-1 CREATIVE GRACE

race #5 - 6f
... 2yo MSW for Ohio-breds .... doesn't get worse unless you're a Rhode Island bred.
#8 10-1 SWINDLE - pick to click
#9 15-1 TREASURE WILBURNYA - was rolling in last
#7 5-2 PATTI GO GIRL - moved to Sergio Baez barn, what do you mean you never heard of him?! .... 48% win clip over 3-years!! Heard of him now?!

race #6 - 8.5f turf
#1 4-1 TEW WAYS
#11 3-1 G NINETEEN
#8 12-1 CAPE CRUSH

... rest to follow shortly ...

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

Lt1 said:
Good luck Prof

Thanks, Lt. Same to you.

Baldheadedprick · Sep 22, 2018

Hit em hard today Prof.... yesterday Perry Outz(?) won his 7,000th race he’s 64 and still going strong

G.MONEY · Sep 22, 2018

BOL, Winner!

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

race #7 - 5.5f
#2 4-1 PAMPERED VOW
#7 6-1 TRUCKSTOP DIAMOND
#5 8-1 ADMIRAL GRACE
#3 12-1 LADY MAUKETTE - so many red flags it should have a police escort

race #8 - 8f turf
... race is a total toss up
#11 8-1 TEMPESTUOUS AMY - Ouzts sticks
#1 4-1 SAUCY DAME - Kenneally
#4 15-1 TRUEAMERICANBEAUTY

race #9 - 6.5f
... tough and cheap maiden claimer.
#3 10-1 SILKY GOLD
#13 3-1 SITEENPARKSIDELANE - Hardin generally brings ready regardless what works say
#12 5-1 GI GI'S WILDCAT - IND shipper shortens with the bug
#5 20-1 REAGANIZE - exotic booster, Ouzts jumps on hapless loser .... nuff said

FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
Good luck to all!

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

G. MONEY said:
BOL, Winner!

.... wrong thread?
I'll pass it along as soon as I meet him, thanks.
BOL, Gman.

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

Baldheadedprick said:
Hit em hard today Prof.... yesterday Perry Outz(?) won his 7,000th race he’s 64 and still going strong

Thanks, BHP. Same to you.Ouzts is crazy. At 64 I'll likely be pulling my back out when I tie my shoes.

HossSense · Sep 22, 2018

Prof_Factor said:
Thanks, BHP. Same to you.Ouzts is crazy. At 64 I'll likely be pulling my back out when I tie my shoes.

LMAO, Good Luck Prof I wish I was still 64!

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

races 6 and 8 are now off the turf.
race 8 stands but changing race 6 to ...

race #6 - 8.5f turf (off turf)
#1 4-1 TEW WAYS
#9 20-1 SGT JACK T MOFFITT

Saddlesore · Sep 22, 2018

:smoking: Professor you gotta give your list of the Best of the broken down tracks

Prof_Factor · Sep 22, 2018

Saddlesore said:
:smoking: Professor you gotta give your list of the Best of the broken down tracks

Define "best".
I play alot of tracks. Not just the cheap ones. I like playing a whole card somewhere and spot play everywhere else.
Sometimes I'll play 2 cards at the same time if one of them is Woodbine.
To me priority is bet-ability and play-ability.
Bet-ability equates to value potentials across the card. That eliminates small field cards, poor betting menus, and cards loaded with heavy chalk.
Play-ability equates to video stream not being overly disadvantaged to live viewing. I need to see the horses as much as I can. That eliminates NYRA and Laurel automatically for me. I also prefer tracks with changing biases and not drag-strips.
If I feel like posting picks, it needs to be a card I'm going to play AND that deliver early scratches. 45 minutes before post doesn't cut-it if I'm going to post picks. That generally means BTP, IND, GP, RP actually have the best chance.
If I post, I want to be able to make money for the casual player. I will bet my posts simply to make me cap as good as I can. I don't post like it don't matter.

Today I played BTP full card and bet some races at CD, GP, IND, PRX and WO.
I did miss the 19-1 shot winner in the last at WO I had flagged. This still happens to me sometimes. I keep an alarm clock running on my computer to help keep me from missing races. Didn't think I'd forget about it, but I did.
I used to use Twinspires conditional wager and not worry about missing races but they got rid of that feature. Now I need to catch the toteboards.

Tomorrow I'm looking closely at Emerald Downs. Yeah, surprised me too!!! If I post anything tomorrow it might very well be them.
Also looked at BTP, CD, GP, LRC, MNR, PID, WO. There are some plays, but not card worthy.
If I do post Emerald, will need to give myself extra time for deep-dive researching.

Saddlesore · Sep 23, 2018

:smoking: "Best" meaning terms of paying the "Bucks"

Belterra 9-22-2018

Search

Prof_Factor

New member

Lt1

Member

Prof_Factor

New member

Prof_Factor

New member

Baldheadedprick

New member

G.MONEY

New member

Prof_Factor

New member

Prof_Factor

New member

Prof_Factor

New member

HossSense

Member

Prof_Factor

New member

Saddlesore

Member

Prof_Factor

New member

Saddlesore

Member

Forum statistics

Share this page