Indy +7 -110 over PHILADELPHIA
1:00 PM EST. You might take a look at this price and wonder if the Colts are being overvalued, as they are taking back a similar number this week against the defending Super Bowl Champions with Carson Wentz at the helm as they did in Week 2 at Washington, but that is not the case. That price last week was a bad number fueled by an overreaction to the injuries on the Colts offensive line and the Redskins dominating Week 1 one win over the Cardinals. Indy's stock was low coming into the season, as there were questions surrounding quarterback Andrew Luck, but he looks pretty good considering the rust he had to knock off. In fact, Luck leads the league with 71% pass completions and now we get that + 7 points? Yeah, we’ll bite. The Colts could easily be 2-0 this season after they led most of the way against the Bengals in Week 1 before imploding in the fourth quarter. Even with their struggles, Luck still led his team down the field for the potential winning score before a completed pass to tight end Jack Doyle was ripped from his grip and returned for a touchdown. That costly turnover made the final score look worse for Indy than it really was.
When gauging over and under-reactions, the return of star quarterback Carson Wentz is generating far more buzz than anything the Colts have cooked up. We have one question though. Would Philadelphia be rushing its franchise QB back if it had started the season with a little more firepower on offense? The Eagles really should look to the Colts handling of Luck during his injury. They did not force him back and they ate dirt the entire time he was out. One could argue that strategy cost former Indy coach Chuck Pagano his job, but the seeds for his departure were sown long before. Eagles coach Doug Pederson should have a much longer rope after bringing the first ever Super Bowl to Philly. He'll never by a drink in that city again because of it and if there's anyone that should be given a pass from Eagles fans, it's Pederson. So much of what Wentz brought to the table was in his ability to scramble out of the pocket to extend plays and then capitalize as the defense broke down. How mobile is he going to be just nine months removed from the surgery to repair his torn right ACL? Nick Foles hasn't been great, but his QBR is higher than that of pivots like Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson and none of those QBs are getting the hook like the Super Bowl MVP. A healthy Foles would be spotting fewer points than this, but he's by far the better option at this point only. Instead, Pederson, after tasting success last season, will chase the dragon and put his young quarterback's future in jeopardy. Robert Griffin is the most extreme example, but his mishandling robbed him, the Redskins and then coach Mike Shanahan of what appeared to be a very bright future. Buyer beware, as their are red-flags all over the chalk here.
Pick: Indianapolis +7 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
WASHINGTON +120 over Green Bay
1:00 PM EST. Is there any player more valuable to their team than Aaron Rodgers? The Packers are lucky to be 1-1 and easily could be 0-2 if not for league's best quarterback. They were fortunate to come from behind on Sunday Night Football against the Bears in Week 1 after Rodgers sprained his knee. Last week's result, a 29-29 tie with the Vikings, was just as lucky after the Packers were out-gained by more than two yards per play on their home turf. In the fourth quarter, when they needed a stop, the Green Bay defense wasn't able to make it. The Packers benefited greatly from big plays in that win over the Bears and last week was much of the same. Green Bay scored just one offensive touchdown with its other major coming by way of a blocked punt return. Five Mason Crosby field goals made up the rest of the 29 points the Packers put up. Rodgers and company were just 1-5 in the red zone and are not clicking on all cylinders. It's impossible to know how hurt #12 is, but the numbers under the hood don't lie, as he ranks just 13th in QBR. The Packers have no running game to speak of and the returning Aaron Jones will only muddy an already messy situation.
The Redskins have been on quite the roller coaster when it comes to their relationship with oddsmakers. Washington went from two-point pooches in Arizona, to a touchdown favorite at home to the Colts, to now being back in the underdog role, which they are much better suited for. The 'Skins are undervalued this week after a 21-9 loss on their home turf, but they out-gained Indianapolis in that game, won the time of possession by nearly seven minutes and had more first downs. For Washington, the game was lost in the red zone, where it went 0-2 and had to settle for field goals, while the Colts cashed in majors on all three trips it made it inside the 20. Alex Smith had a great stat line on Sunday despite not throwing a touchdown pass, as he went 33-of-46 for 292 yards. The 'Skins had the better quarterback on the field, as their top-10 DVOA defense (eighth) limited Andrew Luck to just 179 yards with a pair of interceptions. As a whole, the Redskins defense held Indy to under 300 total yards and stopped the Colts on six-of-seven third downs. On any other Sunday, Washington would likely have had a better result but because it didn't, we’re able to take advantage of a very favorable spot here, as the market continues to zig-zag on the Redskins and continue to get it wrong. Don’t be afraid to play money-lines. ‘Skins outright.
Pick: WASHINGTON +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
New Orleans +110 over ATLANTA
1:00 PM EST. The Falcons had a disappointing end to 2017 after falling just two yards short of the end zone to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles in Philadelphia. It was the second straight year that Atlanta let a shot at a league title slip through its fingers after blowing a big fourth-quarter lead in the big game the year prior. The Falcons have looked like two completely different teams in their two games this season. They were awful in the opener at the Eagles and then appeared to more prepared last week in a win and cover at home over the Panthers, but there were some big red flags in that game, as the Falcons had trouble holding a double-digit lead in the second half. This matchup with Drew Brees and New Orleans has been a tough one for the Falcons defense over the years with the vet putting up at least 300 yards in six straight games.
The Saints struggles last week look so much worse in light of how bad the Browns were in the first half against the Jets on Thursday Night Football before Tyrod Taylor was knocked out of the game, but that come from behind win along with that Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay has their value trending downward. Over the years, the Saints had mostly been led by an offense that greatly outperformed the D. That power balance shifted last season, as it was the defense that brought New Orleans its first division title since 2011. However, that unit has been under fire so far in 2018, which provides us with a buy-low opportunity. One of the areas the Saints defense excelled in last season was stopping the opposition in late-and-close-call situations where they ranked first in DVOA and they also had the lowest rate of plays with a missed tackle at just 7.7 percent. Last season, the Saints started off 0-2 before ripping off eight wins in a row and winning seven of those games by at least eight points. The passing game is already in mid-season form with Drew Brees doing what he always does as the league’s number three DVOA quarterback through three weeks. Don't give up on this young defense either. 2017 first-round pick Marshon Lattimore is a true shutdown corner and had an interception in each of his two games with Atlanta in his rookie season. The Saints wake up here and we’re buying now before the market wakes up to how actually good this small pooch is.
Pick: New Orleans +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)
N.Y. Giants +216 over HOUSTON
1:00 PM EST. Taking six with the Giants might be the best bet on the board but we’re going for the gusto here with a money line play. Make no mistake that the Giants take a big step down in competition here after facing the Jags and Cowboys in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. Those are two of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Giants are running a new offense this year, which takes time to install. With arguably the most talented running back in the draft and one of the best wideouts in the NFL, points will be forthcoming and we’re betting this is the week that occurs. Incidentally, Houston is currently ranked 21st in the league in total rushing defense, allowing 111 yards a game. New York is currently the second-best ranked passing defense in the NFL, as its only allowed 164 passing yards a game.
DeShaun Watson opened with just 176 yards and a score at New England in Week 1 but he was back to 310 yards and two scores in the loss to the Titans. Watson is dangerous but he is always on the run behind a weak offensive line and that’s a problem. The market however, is putting more weight on the Giants 0-2 start than Houston’s 0-2 start likely because New York is a high profile team, where everything gets magnified, especially the declining play of Eli Manning. Furthermore, the Texans two losses came by a total of 10 points, and one of them was on the road against the Patriots, which also also holds more weight in the market. Houston was downright pitiful against a much weaker than usual New England team. The Texans other loss was to the Titans and it came against Blaine Gabbert and a pair of backup tackles. From where we sit, the Texans are in a lot more trouble than the Giants. In fact, the G-Men have pro-bowl players on each of their three units. At the end of the day, there are bad losses and then there are bad losses.
New York’s two losses came against two quality teams while the Texans losses came against two teams with flaws all over the place. Few teams in this league would lose to Blaine Gabbert and the Titans and that gut punch may hurt more than we know. It's hard not to question what the Texans have done to deserve this billing but we see it as the market being very influenced by New York’s inability to move five yards last Sunday night. That’s the type of overreaction we always look for.
In summarizing, both these teams are 0-2 but the difference is that the entire football world watched the Giants not being able to move five yards on Dallas on Sunday Night Football last week. That horrible offensive display is very fresh in the minds of a fickle market and we’re the beneficiaries of a sweet number on the better team. The G-Men were a 3-point dog in Big D and now they’re twice that against a team that is worse than the ‘Boys and that has no protection for Deshaun Watson.
Pick: N.Y. Giants +216 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.32)
CAROLINA -3 +100 over Cincinnati
1:00 PM EST. The Panthers are two games into running Norv Turner's offense and so far it looks good on quarterback Cam Newton, who is completing 69 percent of his pass attempts. Last week, Newton went throw-for-throw with Atlanta's Matt Ryan and although they came up short, Cam outpassed his foe 335 yards to 272 and he put his team on his back to keep it close after the Falcons took multiple 14-point leads in the second half. Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey played a major part in the passing offense in the absence of Greg Olsen, as he racked up 14 catches, which was the most by a tailback in 27 years. He's second in the league in total catches and also leads the league with a 5.4 yards per carry average. McCaffrey should continue to get plenty of work in the number eight DVOA offense through two weeks.
The Bengals have exceeded all expectation after a 2-0 start to the season, but the AFC North leaders are fortunate to sit where they do. Cincinnati was outgained in both its 34-23 victory over Baltimore and in its win over Indianapolis respectively and have also benefited greatly from the second best takeaway advantage in the NFL. Turnovers change games, but they are not a skill-based statistic and cannot be counted for long-term success. Just like luck, over time, the bounces usually even out. Last week against the Ravens, the Bengals jumped out to a big early lead and had to fight tooth and nails in the second half not to give the game away after their offense went cold. Cincinnati has two wins in two tries, both by double digits. That has them grossly overpriced. The win against Baltimore last week in prime time, also has influenced the number. Cinci has 34 points in both of their games so far but they are likely not going to come close to matching that output here. The Bengals are a 2-0 team that are very lucky that they’re not 0-2.
Pick: CAROLINA -3 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
SEATTLE -2 -101 over Dallas
4:25 PM EST. The market has a short memory, which makes fading the Cowboys coming off a high profile win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football such an appealing play here against the winless Seahawks. Dallas might now be 1-1, but both of their games left a lot to be desired. Last week against New York, Dak Prescott threw for just 160 yards, while the 'Boys also lost the time of possession by nearly five minutes. The Giants have been painted as completely inept after that performance on SNF, yet the Cowboys had one less first down and racked up twice as many penalties. In Week 1 at Carolina, the Cowboys couldn't move the ball two yards and got smothered by the Panthers in a 16-8 loss. Dallas was outgained in that game by 61 yards and looked every bit as bad as that score would suggest. The ‘Boys offense ranks last or damn near it in several offensive categories including yards per game sna first downs and it’s also worth noting that Dak Prescott hasn’t thrown a TD pass in six of his last 10 starts.
It wasn't that long ago that Seattle had arguably the loudest and largest home-field advantage in the NFL. On any given Sunday, with all things being equal, most teams get the benefit of a three-point edge on its home turf, but that is not the case for the Seahawks here. Seattle is coming off a 24-17 loss on Monday Night Football to the Bears and while that final score was padded by a late meaningless touchdown, Chicago was on shaky ground until a fourth-quarter pick-six sealed the deal for the Bears. That game-changing play was the difference for the 0-2 Seahawks, who's standing in the market is much lower than it has typically been in the Pete Carroll era. Although all things are not equal when these two teams met in Dallas in late December of last season, the Cowboys were 4½-point favorites. At the time it was Seattle who was still in the playoff race, while the Cowboys were out of it. This small spread should be a wake-up call for the Seahawks. It's prime bulletin board material. If Seattle can't cover this number on its home turf, then it might really be over but let us say this. Seattle is one play away in both of its game from being 2-0 with its first home game coming up. We’re spotting less points than we should be here and that’s what we call a short-priced or deflated number on a strong favorite. Incidentally, Russell Wilson is 38-10 at home as a member of this group. You want a great bet today? This is it. Pick: SEATTLE -2 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
DETROIT +6 +101 over New England
8:20 PM EST. There are different lines all over the place for this one but we don’t care. What we’re going to do is “SELL” points and drop the number to +6 + juice instead of taking back +7 and spotting -120 or -125. Most sportsbooks have a drop-down menu to do that or these type of bets are listed in their “Alternate Point-Spread” section.
Just as they were in the AFC Championship game, the Patriots were outclassed by the Jaguars, but this time there was a much different result. Tom Brady looked mortal in that 31-20 loss in Jacksonville and the Pats defense made Blake Bortles look like a damn good football player on Sunday, which is not that easy to do. The often maligned pivot posted 376 yards and four touchdowns on New England's porous defense and did so without a running game. When you consider how lucky the Pats were to get a win over a Texans’ team in Week 1 that constantly shot itself in the foot, there should be some real concern in New England. The Patriots are never ones to stand idle, so to help the offense they traded for receiver Josh Gordon, who finally fell out of favor with the Browns enough that they had to move the talented, but troubled pass catcher. It appears on the outside like a classic buy low situation for the Patriots, but from our standpoint, it reeks worse than the grass that Gordon is so famous for smoking.
There are many layers to this tasty matchup so let's start on the surface. Firstly, this is a high profile prime-time game on Sunday Night Football, which is a spot that is not unfamiliar to the Patriots. They have more pedigree than just about any team and are well known by even the most casual observers in the market. With that comes the inflated price you must pay to back them, which is the case again here. When you try to untangle the knot that is the tight-knit coaching fraternity, the ties between the Pats and Lions run much deeper.
There have been many branches of the Bill Belichick coaching tree that have fallen into head coaching positions, but unlike many of his predecessors, Lions coach Matt Patricia is actually well-liked by his former boss. Patricia was with BB's staff in one role or another on both sides of the ball for 14-years. If the situation presents itself, Belichick is not going to run up the score and embarrass Patricia. On the flip side, there is an even better chance that the Patriots are on the decline after a pair of sub-par performances to start the season. The loss of Patricia on the Patriots sideline could play a role in this game as well, as he knows that organization and its players inside and out. The market's perception of the Lions is likely largely based on their pitiful Monday Night Football performance in Week 1, but they are more than capable with keeping up with these Pats. Detroit’s offense is loaded.
Another angle influencing the market is that the Patriots are going to have a big response to an embarrassing performance. If this was three years ago or more, we could get on board with that strategy or logic but it’s not and it does not apply anymore. The Patriots are a mid-tier club spotting upper tier prices on the road and it’s way out of whack. Pick: DETROIT +6 +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
1:00 PM EST. You might take a look at this price and wonder if the Colts are being overvalued, as they are taking back a similar number this week against the defending Super Bowl Champions with Carson Wentz at the helm as they did in Week 2 at Washington, but that is not the case. That price last week was a bad number fueled by an overreaction to the injuries on the Colts offensive line and the Redskins dominating Week 1 one win over the Cardinals. Indy's stock was low coming into the season, as there were questions surrounding quarterback Andrew Luck, but he looks pretty good considering the rust he had to knock off. In fact, Luck leads the league with 71% pass completions and now we get that + 7 points? Yeah, we’ll bite. The Colts could easily be 2-0 this season after they led most of the way against the Bengals in Week 1 before imploding in the fourth quarter. Even with their struggles, Luck still led his team down the field for the potential winning score before a completed pass to tight end Jack Doyle was ripped from his grip and returned for a touchdown. That costly turnover made the final score look worse for Indy than it really was.
When gauging over and under-reactions, the return of star quarterback Carson Wentz is generating far more buzz than anything the Colts have cooked up. We have one question though. Would Philadelphia be rushing its franchise QB back if it had started the season with a little more firepower on offense? The Eagles really should look to the Colts handling of Luck during his injury. They did not force him back and they ate dirt the entire time he was out. One could argue that strategy cost former Indy coach Chuck Pagano his job, but the seeds for his departure were sown long before. Eagles coach Doug Pederson should have a much longer rope after bringing the first ever Super Bowl to Philly. He'll never by a drink in that city again because of it and if there's anyone that should be given a pass from Eagles fans, it's Pederson. So much of what Wentz brought to the table was in his ability to scramble out of the pocket to extend plays and then capitalize as the defense broke down. How mobile is he going to be just nine months removed from the surgery to repair his torn right ACL? Nick Foles hasn't been great, but his QBR is higher than that of pivots like Jimmy Garoppolo, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson and none of those QBs are getting the hook like the Super Bowl MVP. A healthy Foles would be spotting fewer points than this, but he's by far the better option at this point only. Instead, Pederson, after tasting success last season, will chase the dragon and put his young quarterback's future in jeopardy. Robert Griffin is the most extreme example, but his mishandling robbed him, the Redskins and then coach Mike Shanahan of what appeared to be a very bright future. Buyer beware, as their are red-flags all over the chalk here.
Pick: Indianapolis +7 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
WASHINGTON +120 over Green Bay
1:00 PM EST. Is there any player more valuable to their team than Aaron Rodgers? The Packers are lucky to be 1-1 and easily could be 0-2 if not for league's best quarterback. They were fortunate to come from behind on Sunday Night Football against the Bears in Week 1 after Rodgers sprained his knee. Last week's result, a 29-29 tie with the Vikings, was just as lucky after the Packers were out-gained by more than two yards per play on their home turf. In the fourth quarter, when they needed a stop, the Green Bay defense wasn't able to make it. The Packers benefited greatly from big plays in that win over the Bears and last week was much of the same. Green Bay scored just one offensive touchdown with its other major coming by way of a blocked punt return. Five Mason Crosby field goals made up the rest of the 29 points the Packers put up. Rodgers and company were just 1-5 in the red zone and are not clicking on all cylinders. It's impossible to know how hurt #12 is, but the numbers under the hood don't lie, as he ranks just 13th in QBR. The Packers have no running game to speak of and the returning Aaron Jones will only muddy an already messy situation.
The Redskins have been on quite the roller coaster when it comes to their relationship with oddsmakers. Washington went from two-point pooches in Arizona, to a touchdown favorite at home to the Colts, to now being back in the underdog role, which they are much better suited for. The 'Skins are undervalued this week after a 21-9 loss on their home turf, but they out-gained Indianapolis in that game, won the time of possession by nearly seven minutes and had more first downs. For Washington, the game was lost in the red zone, where it went 0-2 and had to settle for field goals, while the Colts cashed in majors on all three trips it made it inside the 20. Alex Smith had a great stat line on Sunday despite not throwing a touchdown pass, as he went 33-of-46 for 292 yards. The 'Skins had the better quarterback on the field, as their top-10 DVOA defense (eighth) limited Andrew Luck to just 179 yards with a pair of interceptions. As a whole, the Redskins defense held Indy to under 300 total yards and stopped the Colts on six-of-seven third downs. On any other Sunday, Washington would likely have had a better result but because it didn't, we’re able to take advantage of a very favorable spot here, as the market continues to zig-zag on the Redskins and continue to get it wrong. Don’t be afraid to play money-lines. ‘Skins outright.
Pick: WASHINGTON +120 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.40)
New Orleans +110 over ATLANTA
1:00 PM EST. The Falcons had a disappointing end to 2017 after falling just two yards short of the end zone to the eventual Super Bowl Champion Eagles in Philadelphia. It was the second straight year that Atlanta let a shot at a league title slip through its fingers after blowing a big fourth-quarter lead in the big game the year prior. The Falcons have looked like two completely different teams in their two games this season. They were awful in the opener at the Eagles and then appeared to more prepared last week in a win and cover at home over the Panthers, but there were some big red flags in that game, as the Falcons had trouble holding a double-digit lead in the second half. This matchup with Drew Brees and New Orleans has been a tough one for the Falcons defense over the years with the vet putting up at least 300 yards in six straight games.
The Saints struggles last week look so much worse in light of how bad the Browns were in the first half against the Jets on Thursday Night Football before Tyrod Taylor was knocked out of the game, but that come from behind win along with that Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay has their value trending downward. Over the years, the Saints had mostly been led by an offense that greatly outperformed the D. That power balance shifted last season, as it was the defense that brought New Orleans its first division title since 2011. However, that unit has been under fire so far in 2018, which provides us with a buy-low opportunity. One of the areas the Saints defense excelled in last season was stopping the opposition in late-and-close-call situations where they ranked first in DVOA and they also had the lowest rate of plays with a missed tackle at just 7.7 percent. Last season, the Saints started off 0-2 before ripping off eight wins in a row and winning seven of those games by at least eight points. The passing game is already in mid-season form with Drew Brees doing what he always does as the league’s number three DVOA quarterback through three weeks. Don't give up on this young defense either. 2017 first-round pick Marshon Lattimore is a true shutdown corner and had an interception in each of his two games with Atlanta in his rookie season. The Saints wake up here and we’re buying now before the market wakes up to how actually good this small pooch is.
Pick: New Orleans +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20)
N.Y. Giants +216 over HOUSTON
1:00 PM EST. Taking six with the Giants might be the best bet on the board but we’re going for the gusto here with a money line play. Make no mistake that the Giants take a big step down in competition here after facing the Jags and Cowboys in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. Those are two of the best defensive units in the NFL. The Giants are running a new offense this year, which takes time to install. With arguably the most talented running back in the draft and one of the best wideouts in the NFL, points will be forthcoming and we’re betting this is the week that occurs. Incidentally, Houston is currently ranked 21st in the league in total rushing defense, allowing 111 yards a game. New York is currently the second-best ranked passing defense in the NFL, as its only allowed 164 passing yards a game.
DeShaun Watson opened with just 176 yards and a score at New England in Week 1 but he was back to 310 yards and two scores in the loss to the Titans. Watson is dangerous but he is always on the run behind a weak offensive line and that’s a problem. The market however, is putting more weight on the Giants 0-2 start than Houston’s 0-2 start likely because New York is a high profile team, where everything gets magnified, especially the declining play of Eli Manning. Furthermore, the Texans two losses came by a total of 10 points, and one of them was on the road against the Patriots, which also also holds more weight in the market. Houston was downright pitiful against a much weaker than usual New England team. The Texans other loss was to the Titans and it came against Blaine Gabbert and a pair of backup tackles. From where we sit, the Texans are in a lot more trouble than the Giants. In fact, the G-Men have pro-bowl players on each of their three units. At the end of the day, there are bad losses and then there are bad losses.
New York’s two losses came against two quality teams while the Texans losses came against two teams with flaws all over the place. Few teams in this league would lose to Blaine Gabbert and the Titans and that gut punch may hurt more than we know. It's hard not to question what the Texans have done to deserve this billing but we see it as the market being very influenced by New York’s inability to move five yards last Sunday night. That’s the type of overreaction we always look for.
In summarizing, both these teams are 0-2 but the difference is that the entire football world watched the Giants not being able to move five yards on Dallas on Sunday Night Football last week. That horrible offensive display is very fresh in the minds of a fickle market and we’re the beneficiaries of a sweet number on the better team. The G-Men were a 3-point dog in Big D and now they’re twice that against a team that is worse than the ‘Boys and that has no protection for Deshaun Watson.
Pick: N.Y. Giants +216 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.32)
CAROLINA -3 +100 over Cincinnati
1:00 PM EST. The Panthers are two games into running Norv Turner's offense and so far it looks good on quarterback Cam Newton, who is completing 69 percent of his pass attempts. Last week, Newton went throw-for-throw with Atlanta's Matt Ryan and although they came up short, Cam outpassed his foe 335 yards to 272 and he put his team on his back to keep it close after the Falcons took multiple 14-point leads in the second half. Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey played a major part in the passing offense in the absence of Greg Olsen, as he racked up 14 catches, which was the most by a tailback in 27 years. He's second in the league in total catches and also leads the league with a 5.4 yards per carry average. McCaffrey should continue to get plenty of work in the number eight DVOA offense through two weeks.
The Bengals have exceeded all expectation after a 2-0 start to the season, but the AFC North leaders are fortunate to sit where they do. Cincinnati was outgained in both its 34-23 victory over Baltimore and in its win over Indianapolis respectively and have also benefited greatly from the second best takeaway advantage in the NFL. Turnovers change games, but they are not a skill-based statistic and cannot be counted for long-term success. Just like luck, over time, the bounces usually even out. Last week against the Ravens, the Bengals jumped out to a big early lead and had to fight tooth and nails in the second half not to give the game away after their offense went cold. Cincinnati has two wins in two tries, both by double digits. That has them grossly overpriced. The win against Baltimore last week in prime time, also has influenced the number. Cinci has 34 points in both of their games so far but they are likely not going to come close to matching that output here. The Bengals are a 2-0 team that are very lucky that they’re not 0-2.
Pick: CAROLINA -3 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)
SEATTLE -2 -101 over Dallas
4:25 PM EST. The market has a short memory, which makes fading the Cowboys coming off a high profile win over the Giants on Sunday Night Football such an appealing play here against the winless Seahawks. Dallas might now be 1-1, but both of their games left a lot to be desired. Last week against New York, Dak Prescott threw for just 160 yards, while the 'Boys also lost the time of possession by nearly five minutes. The Giants have been painted as completely inept after that performance on SNF, yet the Cowboys had one less first down and racked up twice as many penalties. In Week 1 at Carolina, the Cowboys couldn't move the ball two yards and got smothered by the Panthers in a 16-8 loss. Dallas was outgained in that game by 61 yards and looked every bit as bad as that score would suggest. The ‘Boys offense ranks last or damn near it in several offensive categories including yards per game sna first downs and it’s also worth noting that Dak Prescott hasn’t thrown a TD pass in six of his last 10 starts.
It wasn't that long ago that Seattle had arguably the loudest and largest home-field advantage in the NFL. On any given Sunday, with all things being equal, most teams get the benefit of a three-point edge on its home turf, but that is not the case for the Seahawks here. Seattle is coming off a 24-17 loss on Monday Night Football to the Bears and while that final score was padded by a late meaningless touchdown, Chicago was on shaky ground until a fourth-quarter pick-six sealed the deal for the Bears. That game-changing play was the difference for the 0-2 Seahawks, who's standing in the market is much lower than it has typically been in the Pete Carroll era. Although all things are not equal when these two teams met in Dallas in late December of last season, the Cowboys were 4½-point favorites. At the time it was Seattle who was still in the playoff race, while the Cowboys were out of it. This small spread should be a wake-up call for the Seahawks. It's prime bulletin board material. If Seattle can't cover this number on its home turf, then it might really be over but let us say this. Seattle is one play away in both of its game from being 2-0 with its first home game coming up. We’re spotting less points than we should be here and that’s what we call a short-priced or deflated number on a strong favorite. Incidentally, Russell Wilson is 38-10 at home as a member of this group. You want a great bet today? This is it. Pick: SEATTLE -2 -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
DETROIT +6 +101 over New England
8:20 PM EST. There are different lines all over the place for this one but we don’t care. What we’re going to do is “SELL” points and drop the number to +6 + juice instead of taking back +7 and spotting -120 or -125. Most sportsbooks have a drop-down menu to do that or these type of bets are listed in their “Alternate Point-Spread” section.
Just as they were in the AFC Championship game, the Patriots were outclassed by the Jaguars, but this time there was a much different result. Tom Brady looked mortal in that 31-20 loss in Jacksonville and the Pats defense made Blake Bortles look like a damn good football player on Sunday, which is not that easy to do. The often maligned pivot posted 376 yards and four touchdowns on New England's porous defense and did so without a running game. When you consider how lucky the Pats were to get a win over a Texans’ team in Week 1 that constantly shot itself in the foot, there should be some real concern in New England. The Patriots are never ones to stand idle, so to help the offense they traded for receiver Josh Gordon, who finally fell out of favor with the Browns enough that they had to move the talented, but troubled pass catcher. It appears on the outside like a classic buy low situation for the Patriots, but from our standpoint, it reeks worse than the grass that Gordon is so famous for smoking.
There are many layers to this tasty matchup so let's start on the surface. Firstly, this is a high profile prime-time game on Sunday Night Football, which is a spot that is not unfamiliar to the Patriots. They have more pedigree than just about any team and are well known by even the most casual observers in the market. With that comes the inflated price you must pay to back them, which is the case again here. When you try to untangle the knot that is the tight-knit coaching fraternity, the ties between the Pats and Lions run much deeper.
There have been many branches of the Bill Belichick coaching tree that have fallen into head coaching positions, but unlike many of his predecessors, Lions coach Matt Patricia is actually well-liked by his former boss. Patricia was with BB's staff in one role or another on both sides of the ball for 14-years. If the situation presents itself, Belichick is not going to run up the score and embarrass Patricia. On the flip side, there is an even better chance that the Patriots are on the decline after a pair of sub-par performances to start the season. The loss of Patricia on the Patriots sideline could play a role in this game as well, as he knows that organization and its players inside and out. The market's perception of the Lions is likely largely based on their pitiful Monday Night Football performance in Week 1, but they are more than capable with keeping up with these Pats. Detroit’s offense is loaded.
Another angle influencing the market is that the Patriots are going to have a big response to an embarrassing performance. If this was three years ago or more, we could get on board with that strategy or logic but it’s not and it does not apply anymore. The Patriots are a mid-tier club spotting upper tier prices on the road and it’s way out of whack. Pick: DETROIT +6 +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)
