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Preview: Steelers at Buccaneers
Gracenote
Sep 21, 2018

It hardly has been a smooth start for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have yet to crack the win column and been embroiled in controversy swirling around the team's top offensive playmakers. The Steelers will face a red-hot quarterback for the second time in as many weeks when they visit Ryan Fitzpatrick and the undefeated Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night.

Star running back Le'Veon Bell continues to be a holdout for Pittsburgh while All-Pro wide receiver Antonio Brown caused a stir for being a no-show one day after last week's 42-37 home loss to Kansas City. "It has to die," Steelers guard Ramon Foster told reporters regarding the off-field distractions. "Way too much stuff going on not to learn from this. Nobody is invincible. Nobody is shunned from any bad things happening, whether that's on the field or off the field." The surprising Buccaneers already have knocked off a pair of 2017 playoff teams behind fill-in quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is the first player to open the season with consecutive 400-yard, four-touchdown performances. "His numbers are off the charts," Buccaneers coach Dirk Koetter told reporters. "So how would you expect everybody to respond? Of course, our team is playing well. They're doing something not many thought they could."

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Steelers -1.5. O/U: 53.5

ABOUT THE STEELERS (0-1-1): Despite the absence of Bell and Brown's brief walkout, leading to disciplinary action from coach Mike Tomlin, Pittburgh's biggest issues are on the other side of the ball. After failing to protect a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead en route to a tie at Cleveland in the season opener, the Steelers were carved up by Kansas City and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who threw for 326 yards and six touchdowns in Sunday's shootout. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger rebounded from a five-turnover debacle in Week 1 by throwing for 452 yards and three scores last weekend - with JuJu Smith-Schuster hauling in 13 passes for 121 yards and a TD. Running back James Conner was limited to 17 yards on eight carries last week after rumbling for 135 and two touchdowns in Week 1.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEEERS (2-0): Fitzpatrick was supposed to simply mind the store while starting quarterback Jameis Winston was serving a three-game suspension to open the season, but after throwing for eight touchdowns and a league-high 819 yards, the job is his - for now. "With the way the team is rallying behind him and just playing lights-out football, you have to kind of honor it," wideout DeSean Jackson, who has nine receptions for 275 yards and three touchdowns through two games, told reporters. "You can't take the hot man out. You got the hot fire right now." Mike Evans has been the favorite target of Fitzpatrick with 17 catches for 230 yards and two scores. Tampa Bay's defense received a boost when defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul and cornerback Brent Grimes were full participants in Friday's practice.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Fitzpatrick is bidding to become the first QB in NFL history with at least 400 passing yards in three straight games.

2. Brown, who made nine catches in each of the first two contests, has 70 receptions and seven TDs in his last eight games versus NFC foes.

3. Tampa Bay rookie DT Vita Vea, the team's first-round draft pick, could make his NFL debut.

PREDICTION: Steelers 30, Buccaneers 26
 

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ATS Trends
Pittsburgh

Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Steelers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Steelers are 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 3.
Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Steelers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.

Tampa Bay

Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Buccaneers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
Buccaneers are 12-25 ATS in their last 37 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Buccaneers are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3.

OU Trends
Pittsburgh

Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games overall.
Over is 5-0 in Steelers last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Steelers last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 23-7 in Steelers last 30 road games.
Under is 19-7 in Steelers last 26 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 8-3 in Steelers last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games in September.
Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 7-3 in Steelers last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 9-4 in Steelers last 13 games in Week 3.

Tampa Bay

Over is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Buccaneers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 9-3 in Buccaneers last 12 home games.
Over is 5-2 in Buccaneers last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Head to Head

Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 

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MNF – Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay: The opening number (50) was quickly pushed up and it appears that bettors are certainly overreacting to what we’ve seen in the first two weeks. Tampa Bay has turned some heads but they’ve done it with big plays and you wonder what happens when the Buccaneers are forced to move the sticks. The Steelers were lit up at home last week to the Chiefs, who hold a slight lead over Tampa Bay (10-9) with big passing plays (25-plus yards) this season. As bad as both defensive units have looked, you would have to think that Tampa Bay (30.5 PPG) or Pittsburgh (31.5 PPG) will improve as the season progresses. Make a note that including the tie at Cleveland in Week 1, the Steelers have gone 7-1-1 in their last 9 road games and the defense (15.7 PPG) has been very solid during this span. And as great as Tampa Bay QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has played through two games, he’s 0-5 in five career starts against Pittsburgh and his teams only averaged 14.4 PPG.
 

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MNF - Steelers at Buccaneers
Kevin Rogers

LAST WEEK

The Steelers (0-1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) haven’t gone winless through the first three weeks of the season since starting 0-3 in 2013. That Pittsburgh team didn’t pick up its first victory until Week 6 as it managed to finish at 8-8 that season. The Steelers squandered a 21-7 lead to the Browns in Week 1 before finishing in a tie, while erasing a 21-0 deficit to even things up with the Chiefs last week. Pittsburgh couldn’t get over the hump as the Steelers fell, 42-37 as four-point favorites.

Running back Le’Veon Bell sat out for the second straight week as he continues to hold out, while James Conner couldn’t duplicate his 135 yard performance in Week 1 by rushing for only 17 yards against Kansas City. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger finished with 452 yards passing and three touchdowns, as all three touchdown tosses came in the first half. However, the Steelers lost their first home opener since that fateful start of 2013 as Pittsburgh allowed at least 42 points in consecutive games at Heinz Field going back to the 45-42 shootout loss to the Jaguars in the AFC divisional round in January.

The Buccaneers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) weren’t expected to do much offensively in the first two weeks as starting quarterback Jameis Winston began a three-game suspension. However, the Harvard man came to the rescue as veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick diced up a pair of playoff teams in the first two weeks. After lighting up the Saints for 417 yards and four touchdowns in a 48-40 opening week shocker, Fitzpatrick put an encore in the home opener against the defending champion Eagles.

Fitzpatrick connected with speedster DeSean Jackson on a 75-yard touchdown pass on the first play of scrimmage, while also hooking up with tight end O.J. Howard on another 75-yard scoring connection. The Bucs jumped out to a 27-7 advantage before holding on for a 27-21 win over Philadelphia to cash as three-point underdogs. Fitzpatrick eclipsed the 400-yard mark for the second straight week by throwing for 402 and four more touchdowns, as he leads the league in passing yards and is second in touchdown passes behind Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes.

HOME LOSS BOUNCE-BACK

The Steelers have done a solid job over the years coming off a home loss, owning an 8-1 record since 2013 in this situation. Last season, Pittsburgh lost twice at home in the regular season, falling to Jacksonville and the disputed finish to New England. In each instance, the Steelers rebounded with a win at Kansas City and at Houston, while the only loss in the situation came in 2016 at Baltimore following a home defeat to New England. From a totals standpoint, the UNDER has hit five straight times when the Steelers play on the road following a home defeat dating back to 2015.

BARKING ‘DOGS AT THE PIRATE SHIP

Although Tampa Bay is a slight underdog on Monday night, the Bucs have taken care of business when receiving points at Raymond James Stadium. In the last six instances 2016, the Bucs are 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as a home underdog, coming off last week’s mild upset of the Eagles. Last season, Tampa Bay lost in close contests to the Patriots and Falcons, but managed a cover as seven-point underdogs in a 27-24 defeat to Atlanta.

SERIES HISTORY

The last time these teams met up back in 2014 at Heinz Field, as the Buccaneers picked up a 27-24 triumph as seven-point underdogs. Tampa Bay entered the contest at 0-3 and ultimately finished that season at 2-14, but came out on top thanks to a Mike Glennon five-yard touchdown pass to Vincent Jackson with seven seconds remaining. Roethlisberger hooked up with Antonio Brown for a pair of touchdown connections, but Pittsburgh suffered its first loss to Tampa Bay since 1998.

In the previous matchup at Raymond James Stadium in 2010 (also in Week 3), the Steelers cruised past the Bucs, 38-13 as 2 ½-point favorites. Roethlisberger was in the midst of a four-game suspension as Charlie Batch threw three touchdown passes, while Pittsburgh scored three touchdowns in the second quarter.

MONDAY NIGHT LIGHTS

The Steelers have won four consecutive Monday night games (not including a Christmas Day victory at Houston last season) since 2014. The last three instances have come on the road at the Chargers (2015), Redskins (2016), and Bengals (2017), but failed to cover at Cincinnati in a 23-20 win as 4 ½-point favorites.

Tampa Bay has been showcased on Monday night football three times since 2013, all in the underdog role. In all three instances, the Bucs have covered, while picking up outright victories over Miami in 2013 and Carolina in 2016.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Handicapper Joe Nelson says that the Buccaneers are in a good spot for now, but the road doesn’t ease up, “Needless to say Fitzpatrick will likely maintain the starting role past Winston’s suspension, but it is too soon to count Tampa Bay as a serious NFC championship threat. The division is stacked with three other viable playoff threats and the schedule remains difficult with road games in Chicago and Atlanta surrounding a Week 5 bye week.”

Will there be a bunch of points scored since the two teams have combined for a 3-1 OVER record? “While the attention will be on the offenses, the defenses have surrendered big numbers as well, both in the bottom eight of the league in total defense and in the bottom six of scoring defense. One big disparity is Tampa Bay featuring currently one of the best run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 67 rushing yards per game while Pittsburgh ranks 30th allowing 152 rushing yards per game. It seems likely that over time those numbers will adjust towards the middle as the Steelers have mostly played from behind while the Buccaneers have mostly played with a lead so far this season,” Nelson notes.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook opened the Steelers as a three-point road favorite, but that number has dipped down to 1 ½ at most books. Due to the numbers put up by Fitzpatrick and Roethlisberger through two weeks, the total sits between 53 ½ and 54 at most spots. The Steelers last saw a road total of 50 or above in the 2015 season opener at New England in which it lost, 28-21. Under Dirk Koetter, the Bucs are 3-1 to the UNDER on totals of 50 or higher with the lone OVER hitting in Week 1 at New Orleans.
 

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Betting numbers thus far in Week 3 (prior to Monday Night Football):

Betting Favorites: 7-8 ATS
Home Teams: 10-5 ATS
Over/Under: 7-8
 

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Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 10-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8
 

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National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 27-18-2
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 29-16-2
Against the Spread 26-20-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 24-23
 

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The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bills (+17, ML +1000) at Vikings, 27-6
Titans (+10, ML +400) at Jaguars, 9-6
Lions (+7, ML +280) vs. Patriots, 26-10
Giants (+6, ML +230) at Texans, 27-22
 

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The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-7) vs. Chargers, 35-23
Chiefs (-6) vs. 49ers, 38-27
Ravens (-5.5) vs. Broncos, 27-14
Browns (-3) vs. Jets, 21-17
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders, 28-20
 

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NFL

Week 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report


Monday, September 24

Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 18 of Pittsburgh's last 23 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
 

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Monday
Steelers (0-1-1) @ Buccaneers (2-0)— Fitzpatrick is 48-61 for 819 yards, eight TD’s as Tampa Bay is 2-0 for first time since 2010. This is last game of Winston’s suspension; does Fitzpatrick do enough to keep starting job? Bucs scored 75 points in winning first two games, averaging 14.9/11.2 yards/pass attempt, outrageous numbers- five of their nine TD’s were on plays of 36+ yards. Steelers scored 58 points in first two games but are 0-1-1, allowing 42 second half points (42-30)- they may have internal issues, with Bell holding out and Brown missing Monday’s meetings. Since 2013, Pitt is 14-19 as road favorites. Pitt won eight of 10 series games, five of six played here; Bucs won last meeting 28-24 @ Heinz Field in ’14.
 

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 3


Monday, September 24

Pittsburgh @ Tampa Bay

Game 489-490
September 24, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
137.631
Tampa Bay
134.463
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
Pick
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Pittsburgh
Over
 

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Monday, Sept. 24

PITTSBURGH at TAMPA BAY (ESPN, 8:25 p.m. ET)
Koetter 5-0 as home dog since LY.
Tech Edge: Koetter 5-0 as home dog since LY.
 

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Preview: Marlins at Nationals
Gracenote
Sep 23, 2018

Stephen Strasburg has manhandled the Miami Marlins throughout his career, and this campaign has been no different. Strasburg aims to continue his dominance of the division rival on Monday as the Washington Nationals (78-78) host the Marlins (62-93) in the opener of their final home series of the season.

Strasburg surrendered just two runs and struck out 19 to win both of his starts this season versus Miami to improve to 17-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against the National League East rival. Trea Turner is riding an 11-game hitting streak and career-best 23-game on-base stretch while fellow infielder Anthony Rendon has respective streaks of nine and 31 for Washington, which has won 10 of the 16 meetings with Miami this season. While the Nationals have dropped three of four contests overall, the Marlins recorded a pair of shutouts to highlight a three-game sweep of Cincinnati. Brian Anderson had three singles in Sunday's 6-0 romp to give him five hits and four runs scored during the series, although he is 0-for-6 with two strikeouts in his career versus Strasburg.

TV: 7:05 p.m. ET, FS Florida (Miami), MASN2 (Washington)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Marlins RH Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 2.35 ERA) vs. Nationals RH Stephen Strasburg (9-7, 3.83)

Alcantara tasted defeat for the first time in his career on Tuesday, as he allowed three runs on six hits over four innings of a 4-2 setback versus Washington. The 23-year-old Dominican issues six walks to drive up his pitch count to boot. Adam Eaton and Turner each had a pair of singles in the contest, although the rest of the Nationals combined to go 2-for-11 against Alcantara.

Strasburg improved to 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA in his last five starts after yielding two runs on five hits in Tuesday's victory. The 30-year-old matched his season high with 11 strikeouts in that contest to raise his five-game total to 38. Strasburg has struggled at home in 2018, posting a 2-5 mark with a 5.20 ERA while surrendering 10 of his 16 homers.

WALK-OFFS

1. Washington LF Juan Soto is 2-for-23 with five strikeouts in his last six contests.

2. Miami C J.T. Realmuto is 6-for-15 with three runs scored and two RBIs during his four-game hitting streak.

3. Turner's RBI total (19) versus the Marlins this season is more than twice than his count against any other team.

PREDICTION: Nationals 4, Marlins 1
 

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W/L Trends
Miami

Marlins are 5-1 in their last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
Marlins are 5-2 in their last 7 games on grass.
Marlins are 9-4 in their last 13 Monday games.
Marlins are 16-35 in their last 51 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Marlins are 5-11 in their last 16 games following a win.
Marlins are 21-47 in their last 68 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Marlins are 27-63 in their last 90 road games.
Marlins are 2-6 in their last 8 vs. National League East.
Marlins are 2-6 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Marlins are 4-14 in their last 18 during game 1 of a series.
Marlins are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Washington

Nationals are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 3-8 in their last 11 vs. a team with a losing record.
Nationals are 2-7 in their last 9 Monday games.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 home games.
Nationals are 1-4 in their last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Nationals are 1-5 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Nationals are 4-0 in Strasburgs last 4 Monday starts.
Nationals are 4-1 in Strasburgs last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 21-6 in Strasburgs last 27 starts with 5 days of rest.
Nationals are 28-9 in Strasburgs last 37 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Nationals are 38-13 in Strasburgs last 51 starts vs. National League East.
Nationals are 64-23 in Strasburgs last 87 starts.
Nationals are 64-23 in Strasburgs last 87 starts on grass.
Nationals are 41-15 in Strasburgs last 56 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Nationals are 43-16 in Strasburgs last 59 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Nationals are 23-10 in Strasburgs last 33 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 23-10 in Strasburgs last 33 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Nationals are 33-15 in Strasburgs last 48 home starts.
Nationals are 2-6 in Strasburgs last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.

OU Trends
Miami

Under is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 overall.
Under is 5-0 in Marlins last 5 on grass.
Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 8-2-1 in Marlins last 11 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Marlins last 5 vs. National League East.
Over is 10-3-1 in Marlins last 14 road games.
Over is 3-1-1 in Marlins last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 11-4-2 in Marlins last 17 games following a win.
Over is 19-7-2 in Marlins last 28 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Marlins last 7 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Washington

Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games following a loss.
Under is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 Monday games.
Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 15-6-1 in Nationals last 22 home games.
Over is 7-3-1 in Nationals last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Over is 6-1 in Strasburgs last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Under is 8-2 in Strasburgs last 10 starts with 5 days of rest.
Over is 4-1 in Strasburgs last 5 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Strasburgs last 13 starts vs. National League East.
Over is 9-3 in Strasburgs last 12 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
Under is 9-3 in Strasburgs last 12 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 14-6-1 in Strasburgs last 21 home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 35-15-2 in Strasburgs last 52 home starts.
Over is 7-3 in Strasburgs last 10 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Head to Head

Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Washington.
Under is 5-0 in Strasburgs last 5 starts vs. Marlins.
Nationals are 10-1 in Strasburgs last 11 home starts vs. Marlins.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Nationals are 20-7 in Strasburgs last 27 starts vs. Marlins.
Marlins are 16-39 in the last 55 meetings in Washington.
Marlins are 7-19 in the last 26 meetings.

Umpire Trends - Name unavailable
No trends available.
 

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Preview: Astros at Blue Jays
Gracenote
Sep 23, 2018

The Houston Astros cut their magic number to clinch the American League West to three with a strong weekend and are hoping to keep their collective foot on the pedal and carry that momentum into the playoffs. The Astros will try to move even closer to the division title and notch a fourth consecutive victory when they visit the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday for the opener of their three-game series.

Houston, which is 16-4 this month, whipped the Los Angeles Angels by a combined score of 27-10 in a three-game sweep over the weekend to close out the home portion of its regular-season schedule and move 4 1/2 games ahead of Oakland in the AL West. "As easy as these guys are making it look, it's hard being the hunted and being the team that's in it, and certainly getting some good at-bats pieced together against good pitching," Astros manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "We're doing our part." The Blue Jays are losers of three of their last five as they play out the string in a disappointing season as they finish their home slate with Houston before closing the campaign at Tampa Bay. Toronto will send Marco Estrada to the mound on Monday while the Astros counter with Dallas Keuchel.

TV: 7:07 p.m. ET, MLB Network, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest (Houston), Sportsnet, TVA (Toronto)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Astros LH Dallas Keuchel (11-11, 3.71 ERA) vs. Blue Jays RH Marco Estrada (7-13, 5.57)

Keuchel is trying to get back into the win column and find some consistency before heading into the postseason after not being sharp last time out. The former Cy Young Award winner was rocked for five runs on six hits and two walks in five innings to suffer a loss against Seattle on Wednesday, marking the second time in three starts he surrendered five earned runs. Keuchel struggled against Toronto on June 27, when escaped with a no-decision after yielding six runs on seven hits and three walks in 5 1/3 frames.

Estrada is winless in his last five starts but was solid at Baltimore on Wednesday, allowing one run and four hits in six innings. The 35-year-old Mexican is having trouble finding any consistency as he was lit up for eight runs on six hits and three walks by the Yankees in New York in his previous turn on Sept. 14. Estrada started at Houston on June 27 and did not factor in the decision after surrendering four runs - three earned - and seven hits over five frames.

WALK-OFFS

1. Astros SS Carlos Correa (back) has missed the last four games and is day-to-day.

2. Toronto SS Lourdes Gurriel Jr., whose older brother Yuli plays for the Astros, has collected seven RBIs in his last six contests.

3. Houston RHP Charlie Morton (shoulder) left Saturday's game after one inning and it is unclear if he will pitch again before the postseason.

PREDICTION: Astros 6, Blue Jays 2
 

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W/L Trends
Houston

Astros are 8-1 in their last 9 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 23-7 in their last 30 overall.
Astros are 42-15 in their last 57 vs. a team with a losing record.
Astros are 48-18 in their last 66 road games.
Astros are 65-28 in their last 93 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 56-26 in their last 82 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Astros are 41-19 in their last 60 games following a win.
Astros are 36-17 in their last 53 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 42-20 in their last 62 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
Astros are 79-38 in their last 117 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Astros are 64-31 in their last 95 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 17-35 in their last 52 games on astroturf.
Astros are 5-0 in Keuchels last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Astros are 6-1 in Keuchels last 7 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Astros are 5-1 in Keuchels last 6 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 starts after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Astros are 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 Monday starts.
Astros are 7-2 in Keuchels last 9 road starts.
Astros are 5-2 in Keuchels last 7 starts during game 1 of a series.
Astros are 20-8 in Keuchels last 28 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 36-15 in Keuchels last 51 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Astros are 7-3 in Keuchels last 10 starts with 4 days of rest.
Astros are 0-4 in Keuchels last 4 starts on astroturf.

Toronto

Blue Jays are 5-1 in their last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Blue Jays are 7-15 in their last 22 vs. American League West.
Blue Jays are 15-36 in their last 51 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Blue Jays are 2-5 in their last 7 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 2-6 in their last 8 Monday games.
Blue Jays are 6-23 in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Blue Jays are 0-5 in their last 5 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Blue Jays are 6-2 in Estradas last 8 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 5-2 in Estradas last 7 home starts.
Blue Jays are 5-2 in Estradas last 7 starts on astroturf.
Blue Jays are 9-4 in Estradas last 13 Monday starts.
Blue Jays are 3-8 in Estradas last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Blue Jays are 2-6 in Estradas last 8 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Jays are 3-11 in Estradas last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Blue Jays are 1-4 in Estradas last 5 starts.
Blue Jays are 1-5 in Estradas last 6 starts vs. American League West.
Blue Jays are 0-4 in Estradas last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.

OU Trends
Houston

Under is 4-0-2 in Astros last 6 on astroturf.
Over is 4-0-1 in Astros last 5 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 6-1-1 in Astros last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 3-1-1 in Astros last 5 games following a win.
Under is 11-4-3 in Astros last 18 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
Under is 34-15-2 in Astros last 51 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 34-16-1 in Astros last 51 Monday games.
Over is 34-16-5 in Astros last 55 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 3-0-1 in Keuchels last 4 starts on astroturf.
Under is 5-1-1 in Keuchels last 7 Monday starts.
Over is 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 road starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Keuchels last 8 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 3-1-1 in Keuchels last 5 road starts.
Over is 5-2 in Keuchels last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 20-8-1 in Keuchels last 29 starts vs. American League East.
Over is 7-3 in Keuchels last 10 starts when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.

Toronto

Under is 5-0 in Blue Jays last 5 Monday games.
Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 vs. American League West.
Under is 7-2 in Blue Jays last 9 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 12-4-2 in Blue Jays last 18 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Under is 9-3-1 in Blue Jays last 13 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Over is 3-1-1 in Blue Jays last 5 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 8-3-1 in Blue Jays last 12 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-1-1 in Estradas last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 9-2 in Estradas last 11 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 15-4 in Estradas last 19 starts during game 1 of a series.
Over is 10-3 in Estradas last 13 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 8-3-1 in Estradas last 12 starts on astroturf.
Over is 5-2 in Estradas last 7 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-3-1 in Estradas last 11 home starts.

Head to Head

Over is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto.
Over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Astros are 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Over is 4-1 in Keuchels last 5 starts vs. Blue Jays.
Astros are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Astros are 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Toronto.

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Preview: Yankees at Rays
Gracenote
Sep 23, 2018

The visiting New York Yankees can strengthen their hold on the top wild-card spot and eliminate the Tampa Bay Rays from postseason contention in one fell swoop on Monday when the American League East rivals play the opener of a four-game series at Tropicana Field. The Yankees (95-60) are clinging to a 1 1/2-game lead over Oakland, while the Rays (87-68) reside 6 1/2 behind the Athletics with seven contests remaining on their slate.

Miguel Andujar had two of New York's four hits in Sunday's 6-3 setback to major league-worst Baltimore, giving the rookie three multi-hit performances in his last four outings. Giancarlo Stanton recorded just his second hit in 20 at-bats over his last five games, however the slugger is 18-for-57 with three homers and 10 RBIs versus the Rays this season. Tommy Pham has three homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored during his seven-game hitting streak for Tampa Bay, which boasts a 16-5 mark in September and majors-best 25-7 record since Aug. 19. C.J. Cron homered in Sunday's 5-2 win over Toronto giving him six RBIs and three runs scored during his five-game hitting streak.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MLB Network, YES (New York), FS Sun (Tampa Bay)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Yankees RH Luis Severino (18-8, 3.38 ERA) vs. Rays RH Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.25)

Severino turned in his second straight one-run performance on Wednesday to post his first win since Aug. 26 in a 10-1 romp over Boston. The 24-year-old Dominican owns a 2-1 mark with a 3.54 ERA in three starts versus Tampa Bay this season, although he surrendered season highs in runs (seven) and hits (11) over five innings of a 7-6 setback on July 23. Severino has stymied Kevin Kiermaier (3-for-23, 11 strikeouts) in his career, although Jake Bauers is 3-for-5 with a homer in a small sample size versus the hurler.

Castillo is expected to make his 11th start this season before likely giving way to left-hander Ryan Yarbrough. The 24-year-old Castillo last pitched on Friday, allowing a solo homer in one inning of a no-decision at Toronto. He owns a 1-0 mark in six appearances this season versus the Yankees, surrendering three runs and six hits over seven innings while issuing five walks and striking out five.

WALK-OFFS

1. Per New York manager Aaron Boone, SS Didi Gregorius will be re-evaluated in a few days after sustaining cartilage damage in his wrist while sliding to home plate with Saturday's game-winning run.

2. Tampa Bay SS Willy Adames is 10-for-29 with two homers and six RBIs during an eight-game hitting streak.

3. Yankees INF Gleyber Torres is just 4-for-32 with 13 strikeouts this season against the Rays.

PREDICTION: Yankees 3, Rays 2
 

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W/L Trends
NY Yankees

Yankees are 42-13 in their last 55 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 40-13 in their last 53 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Yankees are 12-4 in their last 16 vs. American League East.
Yankees are 39-15 in their last 54 games following a loss.
Yankees are 41-20 in their last 61 during game 1 of a series.
Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Yankees are 2-9 in their last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Yankees are 0-5 in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Tampa Bay

Rays are 4-0 in their last 4 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.
Rays are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Rays are 5-1 in their last 6 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Rays are 15-3 in their last 18 Monday games.
Rays are 21-5 in their last 26 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 11-3 in their last 14 vs. American League East.
Rays are 25-7 in their last 32 overall.
Rays are 42-14 in their last 56 games on astroturf.
Rays are 39-13 in their last 52 home games.
Rays are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Rays are 17-7 in their last 24 games following a win.
Rays are 41-18 in their last 59 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 4-0 in Castillos last 4 starts vs. American League East.
Rays are 6-0 in Castillos last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 9-1 in Castillos last 10 starts.
Rays are 8-1 in Castillos last 9 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Rays are 6-1 in Castillos last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Rays are 6-1 in Castillos last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Rays are 5-1 in Castillos last 6 starts on astroturf.
Rays are 4-1 in Castillos last 5 home starts.

OU Trends
NY Yankees

Under is 5-0 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Yankees last 6 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 vs. American League East.
Over is 4-1 in Yankees last 5 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 3-1-2 in Yankees last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 11-4 in Yankees last 15 on astroturf.
Under is 18-7-2 in Yankees last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 Monday games.
Over is 5-2 in Yankees last 7 during game 1 of a series.
Under is 10-4-1 in Yankees last 15 vs. a team with a winning record.

Tampa Bay

Over is 6-2 in Rays last 8 vs. American League East.
Under is 20-8-1 in Rays last 29 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 7-3 in Rays last 10 home games.
Over is 6-0 in Castillos last 6 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 8-1 in Castillos last 9 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance.
Over is 8-1 in Castillos last 9 starts overall.
Over is 6-1 in Castillos last 7 starts when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Castillos last 6 starts on astroturf.
Over is 5-1 in Castillos last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Castillos last 5 home starts.

Head to Head

Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Tampa Bay.
Under is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings.
Yankees are 2-8 in the last 10 meetings.
Yankees are 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Tampa Bay.

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Preview: Orioles at Red Sox
Gracenote
Sep 24, 2018

The Boston Red Sox open the final week of an impressive regular season looking to get healthy for the playoffs and add some milestones as they host the major league-worst Baltimore Orioles in the opener of their three-game series on Monday. The American League East-champion Red Sox have lost four of their last six contests following a 4-3 setback in 11 innings at Cleveland on Sunday that kept them tied with the 1912 team that went 105-47 for the franchise record for the most wins in a season.

Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts left Sunday’s contest with a strained left shoulder and is day-to-day, but teammate Mookie Betts is feeling good after going 4-for-6 with his 31st homer - passing Nomar Garciaparra for the most blasts in a season by a leadoff hitter in Red Sox history. Nathan Eovaldi will try to put together back-to-back strong starts when he takes the mound for Boston in the series opener against fellow right-hander Dylan Bundy. The Orioles defeated the New York Yankees 6-3 on Sunday with the help of two homers by Tim Beckham, keeping them one loss away from the dubious franchise record of 111 set by the 1939 St. Louis Browns. Rookie DJ Stewart has gone 7-for-12 with three doubles, two homers and six RBIs during his five-game hitting streak after going 0-for-13 to start his major-league career.

TV: 7:10 p.m. ET, MASN (Baltimore), NESN (Boston)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Orioles RH Dylan Bundy (8-15, 5.37 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH Nathan Eovaldi (5-7, 3.98)

Bundy has pitched better in his last two starts, allowing two earned runs in each outing while taking the loss against Toronto and defeating Oakland. The 25-year-old native of Oklahoma went 0-5 over his previous seven turns, adding to his career-high loss total while posting a 9.09 ERA during that rough stretch. Brock Holt is 8-for-13 with a homer versus Bundy, who is 0-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox this year and 3-6 with a 4.80 ERA in 16 career appearances (12 starts).

Eovaldi permitted just two hits and two walks in six scoreless innings against the Yankees last time out but extended his winless streak to eight games. The 28-year-old Texan had not completed six frames in his previous seven appearances (six starts), going 0-3 in that span. Chris Davis is 4-for-13 with two homers versus Eovaldi, who gave up eight runs - four earned - over 2 2/3 innings against Baltimore on Aug. 10 but escaped with a no-decision.

WALK-OFFS

1. Baltimore 3B Renato Nunez has gone 4-for-8 with two homers, three RBIs and three runs scored in his last two games.

2. Boston OF-DH J.D. Martinez has belted 41 homers, one shy of Dick Stuart's mark (1963) for most by a first-year Red Sox player.

3. Orioles 2B Breyvic Valera left Sunday’s game with a broken left index finger he suffered while getting tagged out at home plate.

PREDICTION: Red Sox 5, Orioles 3
 

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