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Preview: North Carolina at Miami


It's a short week for North Carolina and Miami as they meet in front of a national audience on Thursday night in South Florida. Both teams come off victories, with the Hurricanes moving up to No. 16 after their 31-17 triumph over Florida International, while the Tar Heels earned their first victory of the season, outlasting Pittsburgh 38-35 in the school's ACC and home opener.

The question of the week in Miami is who will open at quarterback after redshirt freshman N'Kosi Perry replaced embattled senior Malik Rosier Saturday for the third series in a planned move, according to head coach Mark Richt. Rosier, last year's starter who got off to a rocky beginning this season, never got back in and Perry went on to hit 17 of 25 passes for 224 yards and three touchdowns in his first extended action to spark a Hurricanes offense that has been inconsistent with Rosier at the helm. "I'm going to continue to watch practice and let everybody know when it's time for them to know," Richt told reporters. "But I'm not telling what's happening." The Tar Heels may have a quarterback quandary of their own with sophomore Chazz Surratt one of seven players returning from a three-game suspension, but head coach Larry Fedora indicated that junior Nathan Elliott will get the nod after his impressive 313-yard, two-touchdown outing against Pittsburgh.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Miami -18.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (1-2, 1-0 ACC): Surratt led the Tar Heels with 1,342 yards passing and 13 touchdowns (eight passing, five rushing) in nine games last season (seven starts) and his return will give Fedora a solid option should Elliott struggle as he did the first two weeks. The offensive line has surrendered just one sack in three games and the unit owned the line of scrimmage against Pittsburgh, playing a major role in the success of Elliott and a ground attack that pounded out a season-high 173 yards, led by Antonio Williams' 114 yards and two touchdowns. Last season, North Carolina outgained Miami 428-415 in a 24-19 loss but Surratt was injured in the first quarter and Elliott came in and threw three interceptions against the Canes' opportunistic defense.

ABOUT MIAMI (3-1, 0-0): Rosier has had his moments as the Hurricanes' starter since the start of the 2017 season but he is completing just 52.1 percent of his passes this year and 54 percent last year, while Perry is showing far greater accuracy (66.7 percent), a big reason why a switch to the younger, more dynamic Perry appears imminent. True freshman tight end Brevin Jordan is becoming a more integral part of the attack and he is tied for second on the team in receptions (12) and touchdowns (three), with 11 of his catches coming with Perry at quarterback. The Tar Heels' ground game will be challenged by a Miami run defense giving up just 78.8 yards per game, fourth best in the nation, with Gerald Willis III tied for tops in the country in tackles for loss (10) and Jonathan Garvin ranked sixth (8.5).

EXTRA POINTS
1. North Carolina won the last meeting in Miami in 2016, which was also the last time the Hurricanes lost a regular-season game at home (11 straight wins since).

2. The Hurricanes are opening their ACC slate at home for the first time since the 2013 season.

3. This will be North Carolina's 18th Thursday night ESPN football game in school history and they are 9-8, with wins in three of the last five appearances.

PREDICTION: Miami 34, North Carolina 20
 

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ATS Trends
North Carolina

Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Tar Heels are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Tar Heels are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Tar Heels are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Tar Heels are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Tar Heels are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
Tar Heels are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in September.

Miami

Hurricanes are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Hurricanes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in September.
Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Hurricanes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Hurricanes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
Hurricanes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference games.

OU Trends
North Carolina

Under is 8-1 in Tar Heels last 9 Thursday games.
Under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Tar Heels last 5 games on grass.
Under is 9-3 in Tar Heels last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-2 in Tar Heels last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 8-3 in Tar Heels last 11 games in September.
Under is 11-5 in Tar Heels last 16 conference games.

Miami

Under is 8-1 in Hurricanes last 9 conference games.
Under is 9-2 in Hurricanes last 11 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 Thursday games.
Over is 4-1 in Hurricanes last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 10-3 in Hurricanes last 13 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Hurricanes last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 5-2 in Hurricanes last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 35-16 in Hurricanes last 51 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Tar Heels are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
 

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 27

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N CAROLINA (1 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 1) - 9/27/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-1 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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NCAAF

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 27

North Carolina @ Miami-FL
North Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami-FL
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of North Carolina's last 6 games when playing Miami-FL

Miami-FL
Miami-FL is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami-FL's last 6 games when playing North Carolina
 

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PERRY IN, ROSIER OUT?

There might be a starting quarterback change in the offing for the Miami Hurricanes, who host North Carolina on a short week Thursday night. N'Kosi Perry started for the first-team offense in Monday's practice while regular starter Malik Rosier began with the second team. Head coach Mark Richt wouldn't commit to a starter for Thursday's showdown with the Tar Heels, telling reporters: "I think the less your opponent knows, the better." The Hurricanes have won three in a row but didn't come close to covering last week, prevailing 31-17 over FIU as a 26.5-point favorite.

Miami opened at -19.5 but has been bet down to -18. Perry has completed two-third of his passes and has thrown for one more TD than Rosier despite making 34 fewer attempts; he represents the team's best option to reach its team total, which stands at 37.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
 

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Thursday, Sept. 27

NORTH CAROLINA at MIAMI-FL...Tar Heels have covered 6 of last 7 on board since late LY. Heels have also covered the last thee vs. Canes, and Fedora 5-2 last seven as road dog. Richt 4-9 last 13 vs. line.

UNC, based on team and series trends.
 

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Preview: Vikings at Rams


The Los Angeles Rams' high-octane offense has been a constant this season, but the formidable defense could take a hit with the potential absences of two key cornerbacks. With Aqib Talib (ankle) and Marcus Peters (calf) likely sidelined, the Rams will aim to keep Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings in check on Thursday when they bid for their first 4-0 mark to begin a season since 2001.

"We don't know how long those guys will be out. It's temporary adversity," said Los Angeles coach Sean McVay, who is expected to lean on cornerbacks Nickell Robey-Coleman, Sam Shields and Troy Hill with Minnesota wide receivers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs coming to the Coliseum. The Rams, in turn, have several explosive weapons on their third-ranked offense (493.3 yards per game), with Jared Goff liberally feeding the trio of Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp to keep the opposition from focusing solely on multi-dimensional running back Todd Gurley. Goff's 941 passing yards rank fifth in the NFL, one spot behind Cousins (965) as the latter has found instant chemistry with Thielen. The 28-year-old wideout reeled in a career-high 14 receptions in Sunday's 27-6 upset loss to Buffalo to increase his total to 32, which is the third-most in league history through the first three games of the season.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX, NFL Network. LINE: Rams -6.5. O/U: 49.5

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-1-1): Coach Mike Zimmer said on Tuesday that there is a "possibility" that second-year dual-threat Dalvin Cook (hamstring) will face the Rams' top-ranked scoring defense (12.0 points) and sixth-ranked defense overall (296.0 yards allowed). Fellow running back Latavius Murray has struggled to get untracked this season after a strong finish to 2017, mustering just one yard on two carries versus the Bills last week and 62 total on 17 attempts in 2018. While there's doubt involving Cook, Zimmer erased any lingering thoughts about the availability of star defensive end Everson Griffen -- who has been ruled out for the second straight game as he battles a serious mental-health related issue. "The only thing really that we're concerned about for Everson isn't anything to do with football, it's about him getting better," Zimmer told reporters Tuesday.

ABOUT THE RAMS (3-0): Gurley isn't a fan of Thursday Night Football -- "it's probably the dumbest thing ever," he said earlier this week -- but the star running back certainly enjoyed the last time he competed on that day. Gurley found the end zone on three occasions in the first half of Los Angeles' 41-39 triumph over San Francisco on Sept. 21, 2017. The reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year picked up where he left off by finding the end zone for the fifth time (four rushing, one receiving) this season in the Rams' 35-23 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. Goff tossed three touchdown passes last week, with Woods grabbing two to go along with a career-high 10 catches for 104 yards.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Minnesota DE Danielle Hunter has collected one sack in each game to start the season.

2. Cooks ranks fifth in the NFL with 336 yards receiving, while Woods (222, 20th) is also ranked in the NFL's top 20.

3. Vikings TE Kyle Rudolph, who found the end zone last week, has four touchdowns in his last five road games.

PREDICTION: Rams 31, Vikings 20
 

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ATS Trends
Minnesota

Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 4.
Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Vikings are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
Vikings are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.
Vikings are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Vikings are 41-20 ATS in their last 61 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
Vikings are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games overall.
Vikings are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games on grass.
Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. NFC.
Vikings are 0-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

L.A. Rams

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 4.
Rams are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Rams are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Rams are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.

OU Trends
Minnesota

Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 6-2 in Vikings last 8 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 15-6 in Vikings last 21 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Vikings last 7 games in Week 4.
Under is 10-4 in Vikings last 14 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 11-5 in Vikings last 16 games in September.

L.A. Rams

Over is 5-1 in Rams last 6 games following a straight up win.
Over is 8-2 in Rams last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Under is 10-3 in Rams last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Over is 6-2 in Rams last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Rams last 7 games in September.

Head to Head

Vikings are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles.
Favorite is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
 

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Opening Line Report - Week 4
Joe Williams

After three weeks of NFL action, we have just three unbeaten teams remaining -- the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins. In addition to being unbeaten straight-up, they're also 3-0 against the spread (ATS). Will that trend continue this week? So far the bet has been the Chiefs and the 'over', going 3-0 ATS and over the total. If you're been smashing those parlays so far, congrats. They'll put each of those streaks to the test on Monday night in the Mile High City against the rival Denver Broncos.

In addition, Week 4 features the first of the byes, as the Carolina Panthers and Washington Redskins get the first in-season rests.

Thursday, Sept. 27

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 49)

It's amazing how much of a difference one week makes. The Vikings were on fire, laying the most points of the 2018 season against the Buffalo Bills (-17) in Week 3. It appeared we were on pace for a potential playoff preview featuring a pair of 3-0 SU teams. A funny thing happened, however, as the Bills remembered how to play professional football -- and no one retired this week.

The Rams are favored by nearly a touchdown, but they have issues in the secondary. CB Aqib Talib might need corrective surgery for a high-ankle sprain, and CB Marcus Peters (calf) is also dinged up. The line opened at 6 1/2 at most shops, with Treasure Island opening this game at -6 before getting in line with everyone else. Westgate Superbook and William Hill opened at -7, but are also at 6 1/2 as of Tuesday morning.
 

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Bookmakers expect NFL bettors to jump on red-hot Rams' odds after Vikings' Week 3 implosion
Patrick Everson

Kirk Cousins and Minnesota stunningly lost to Buffalo in Week 3, and though early Week 4 action favored the visiting Vikings vs. the Rams, the Superbook expects L.A. money to show up strong.

Week 4 of the NFL season opens with a team coming off a monster upset loss against an unbeaten unit averaging 34 points per game. We check in on the opening lines and early action for four matchups, with insights from John Murray, sportsbook manager for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

Minnesota went into its Week 3 home tilt as a 16.5-point favorite against seemingly hapless Buffalo. But things didn’t go quite as planned, as the Vikings (1-1-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) trailed 27-0 at halftime and ended up losing 27-6. Now, the Vikes have a short turnaround on the road, playing the Thursday nighter.

Meanwhile, Los Angeles kept piling up points at a consistent rate in Week 3. After totaling 33 and 34 points in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively, the Rams (3-0 SU and ATS) bested the Los Angeles Chargers 35-23 as a 7.5-point chalk.

“We opened this game Rams -7, a 2 point move from our lookahead line (last week) of Rams -5,” Murray said. “We took a bet right away on the Vikings +7 and went to 6.5. But I’m pretty sure we will need the Vikings big on Thursday. Minnesota looks like it was caught looking ahead in a terrible loss at home to the Bills.

“The Rams are definitely the public team right now. They’re scoring points and covering spreads. The public loves them.”
 

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Overall Notes

National Football League Week 3 Results
Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 7-8

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 10-5
Against the Spread 10-5

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 7-8
 

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National Football League Year-to-Date Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 27-18-2
Against the Spread 20-26-1

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 29-16-2
Against the Spread 26-20-1

Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 24-23
 

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The largest underdogs to win straight up
Bills (+17, ML +1000) at Vikings, 27-6
Titans (+10, ML +400) at Jaguars, 9-6
Lions (+7, ML +280) vs. Patriots, 26-10
Giants (+6, ML +230) at Texans, 27-22
 

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The largest favorite to cover
Rams (-7) vs. Chargers, 35-23
Chiefs (-6) vs. 49ers, 38-27
Ravens (-5.5) vs. Broncos, 27-14
Browns (-3) vs. Jets, 21-17
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders, 28-20
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Thursday, September 27

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MINNESOTA (1 - 1 - 1) at LA RAMS (3 - 0) - 9/27/2018, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 187-232 ATS (-68.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
LA RAMS is 133-183 ATS (-68.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS is 145-184 ATS (-57.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
LA RAMS is 65-97 ATS (-41.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against LA RAMS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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NFL

Week 4

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 27

Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 13-2-1 SU in its last 16 games
Minnesota is 6-2-1 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games when playing LA Rams
Minnesota is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
Los Angeles Rams
LA Rams is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
LA Rams is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
LA Rams is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
LA Rams is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
LA Rams is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 8 of LA Rams's last 12 games when playing Minnesota
LA Rams is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
 

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 4


Thursday, September 27

Minnesota @ LA Rams

Game 101-102
September 27, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
126.530
LA Rams
141.007
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Rams
by 14 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Rams
by 6 1/2
49 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Rams
(-6 1/2); Under
 

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NFL


Week 4


Thursday
Vikings (1-1-1) @ Rams (3-0)— Minnesota threw 55 passes, ran ball only six times in 27-6 home loss to Buffalo LW, NFL’s biggest upset since ’95. Rams lost both starting CB’s LW; Talib is out here, Peters may play. LA won its first three games, by 20-34-12 points, scoring 34 ppg (8 TD’s on 18 drives in two home wins); under McVay, they’re 5-3 vs spread as home favorites. Under Zimmer, Vikings are 12-7 as road underdogs (2-4 last 2+ years); they’ve got no takeaways in last couple games (-4 TO’s). Minnesota won last five series games, including 24-7 (-2) home win LY; Vikings won last three road series games, but last visit to St Louis was in ‘14. Rams converted 16 of 26 on third down last two weeks; they’ve outscored opponents 52-10 in second half.
 

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NFL's Top Over Teams:

Bengals 3-0
Packers 3-0
Chiefs 3-0
Chargers 3-0
Steelers 3-0
Buccaneers 3-0
8 teams tied at 2-1
 

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