[h=1]Best bets for Vikings-Rams[/h]
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season is upon us, as the Minnesota Vikings visit the Los Angeles Rams.
Here are our best bets on the game from Preston Johnson, Mike Clay and Warren Sharp.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (-7)[/h]Total: 49
PickCenter public pick: 51 percent on Los Angeles
Johnson: I thought the Chargers were getting too many points at +7 in Week 3 against the Rams. I would make Minnesota a two-point favorite on a neutral field over San Diego. This Thursday night game is offering up really great value. I understand how absolutely dreadful the Vikings looked in their blowout home loss to the Bills. There may not be a game the rest of the season in which a contender looks as bad as Minnesota did. But remember, no team is as good or bad as its best or worst performance. We deal in week-to-week analysis of single-game sample sizes. Never overreact. Trust the numbers and the process. It's also worth noting that Rams CB Aqib Talib was placed on injured reserve Wednesday.
ATS pick: Vikings +7
Sharp: Last week the Vikings were caught looking ahead to this contest and were defeated by several nice trick plays that Bills OC Brian Daboll pulled from college. It's the exact game plan a team that is a 16.5-point underdog should have used. The problem for the Vikings' defense is that while Daboll teaches an undergrad course in transitioning college wrinkles to the NFL, Rams coach Sean McVay teaches at the graduate level. There is no doubt his schemes and wrinkles will cause headaches for Mike Zimmer's defense. Zimmer's defense allowed 38 points to the Eagles in the playoffs last year and gave up 29 points to the Packers in Week 2 followed by 27 to the Bills last week, which were 15 more points than the Bills were projected to score. The Rams are top five in red zone offense and third-down offense. A hidden edge will be special teams, where the Rams rank No. 11 (including No. 3 in punt returns) with the Vikings ranking No. 28. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings' offense is at the mercy of LT Riley Reiff, who was beaten early and often last week and caused trouble for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' passing game. If Cousins can get the ball out on time, there are edges in the passing matchup because the Rams will be without both starting CBs, Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. And there is optimism because the Rams' pass rush ranks just 30th in pass-rush efficiency. A short week of work always favors the better team with the better coaches. Last year, McVay's Rams (despite playing on the road on the short week) put up 34 points and a two-touchdown lead through three quarters in their lone Thursday night game. ATS pick: lean Rams team total over 27.5 points
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]Todd Gurley over/under 88.5 rush yards (-110)[/h]Clay: Game script often allows the Rams to feed Gurley in the second half, but they do like to throw the ball, something they should be able to do often in what figures to be a competitive game against a good Vikings defense. Gurley has cleared 100 rushing yards twice this season, but his rushing attempts benefited from leads against weak Oakland and Arizona teams, as well as a Joey Bosa-less Chargers squad. Gurley was held to 37 yards on 15 carries against Minnesota last season, so while I expect better efficiency this time around (projected for 4.4 yards per carry, which is actually up from his 4.1 mark this season), Gurley is still a good bet to fall short of 88.5 yards. I have him at 79 yards on 18 attempts.
The pick: Under
NFL Vegas Experts
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Week 4 of the 2018 NFL season is upon us, as the Minnesota Vikings visit the Los Angeles Rams.
Here are our best bets on the game from Preston Johnson, Mike Clay and Warren Sharp.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
PickCenter public pick: 51 percent on Los Angeles
Johnson: I thought the Chargers were getting too many points at +7 in Week 3 against the Rams. I would make Minnesota a two-point favorite on a neutral field over San Diego. This Thursday night game is offering up really great value. I understand how absolutely dreadful the Vikings looked in their blowout home loss to the Bills. There may not be a game the rest of the season in which a contender looks as bad as Minnesota did. But remember, no team is as good or bad as its best or worst performance. We deal in week-to-week analysis of single-game sample sizes. Never overreact. Trust the numbers and the process. It's also worth noting that Rams CB Aqib Talib was placed on injured reserve Wednesday.
ATS pick: Vikings +7
Sharp: Last week the Vikings were caught looking ahead to this contest and were defeated by several nice trick plays that Bills OC Brian Daboll pulled from college. It's the exact game plan a team that is a 16.5-point underdog should have used. The problem for the Vikings' defense is that while Daboll teaches an undergrad course in transitioning college wrinkles to the NFL, Rams coach Sean McVay teaches at the graduate level. There is no doubt his schemes and wrinkles will cause headaches for Mike Zimmer's defense. Zimmer's defense allowed 38 points to the Eagles in the playoffs last year and gave up 29 points to the Packers in Week 2 followed by 27 to the Bills last week, which were 15 more points than the Bills were projected to score. The Rams are top five in red zone offense and third-down offense. A hidden edge will be special teams, where the Rams rank No. 11 (including No. 3 in punt returns) with the Vikings ranking No. 28. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings' offense is at the mercy of LT Riley Reiff, who was beaten early and often last week and caused trouble for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' passing game. If Cousins can get the ball out on time, there are edges in the passing matchup because the Rams will be without both starting CBs, Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters. And there is optimism because the Rams' pass rush ranks just 30th in pass-rush efficiency. A short week of work always favors the better team with the better coaches. Last year, McVay's Rams (despite playing on the road on the short week) put up 34 points and a two-touchdown lead through three quarters in their lone Thursday night game. ATS pick: lean Rams team total over 27.5 points
[h=2]Prop bets[/h][h=3]Todd Gurley over/under 88.5 rush yards (-110)[/h]Clay: Game script often allows the Rams to feed Gurley in the second half, but they do like to throw the ball, something they should be able to do often in what figures to be a competitive game against a good Vikings defense. Gurley has cleared 100 rushing yards twice this season, but his rushing attempts benefited from leads against weak Oakland and Arizona teams, as well as a Joey Bosa-less Chargers squad. Gurley was held to 37 yards on 15 carries against Minnesota last season, so while I expect better efficiency this time around (projected for 4.4 yards per carry, which is actually up from his 4.1 mark this season), Gurley is still a good bet to fall short of 88.5 yards. I have him at 79 yards on 18 attempts.
The pick: Under
