Long time viewer, gonna try and do this weekly.
First of all shout outs to Tigertoy, EKG, BR, BigCat (NCAAF) and the rest of you guys...Never place my plays until looking at those threads at the least.
Week 4 Narratives
Miami/NE -6.5 (47.5)
- Miami is 3-0 but have beaten the likes of the Raiders/Jets/Titans. Not exactly world beaters.
- NE is 1-2, got beat up by Jax (top defense in a revenge game), and Lions (Matt Patricia knows the weaknesses and game planned for months).
- NE would be down 3 games in the division if they lose this
- They are home…post 2 straight losses
- They should get back Gordon
- Miami has injuries on defense now (multiple pass rushers out)
The play: NE -6 (-120), lean towards the under as I think Michel will have some success
Houston/Indy -1.5 (47.0)
- Colts have been a surprisingly tough team and are a couple of breaks from being 2-1 or 3-0
- Houston has looked god awful. They did have a good 2H against the Giants though.
- Houston’s strength is it’s wideouts and Watsons big play ability and the Colts have bad corners (They were handled pretty well by the Bengals who put up a ton of points). Also have starting safeties potentially hurt.
- Houston desperate, can’t go down 0-4
- Luck is still suspect and the Colts offense has not been great. Texans may be able to put some pressure up front.
The play: Houston +1.5.
Cincinnati/Atlanta -4 (51.5)
- Cincinnati’s offense has been clicking this entire season and putting up big points when Green is playing. He’s hurt but he should be playing.
- Cincinnati has a better defense than Saints I think, especially generating pressure.
- Atlanta has a bunch of people out on defense and got carved up last week.
- Think this is going to be a high scoring affair and generally would take points but I don’t like betting against Falcons at home especially as they look to keep pace with the Saints.
The play: small play on Bengals +4
Buffalo/Green Bay -10 (45)
- Buffalo with the win of the last 25 years last week on the road. Again a heavy dog.
- Shady should be back and can potentially take pressure off of Allen who was effective with his legs against the Vikings.
- Rodgers hasn’t looked right all year and is a rough hit from being taken out of the game.
- I don’t think the Packers defense is any good..like at all
- Aaron Jones however is a legit rusher and should be the lead back for the Packers by the end of the game
The play: Pass. No idea.
Jets/Jaxx -7.5 (38.5)
- Jacksonville’s offense is very inconsistent and largely opposing pass rush dependent. The Jets seem like they have a pretty solid defense all things considered.
- Jets however won’t be able to move the ball at all against this Jax defense and will likely get sacked a ton too.
- Jax might be looking ahead to the Chiefs matchup next week as well
- Darnold is known to be loose with the ball and could be forced into turnovers here
- Fournette is gonna play?
The play: Jacksonville -7 (-120), pass on the total but lean on the under
Tampa/Chicago -3 (46.5)
- Tampa can really put up points and they have people you can’t really game plan for either like Mike Evans. The only problem is that when pressured, Fitzmagic can turn into Fitztragic.
- On defense, tampa doesn’t really force any pressure on opposing offenses so Trabisky should be OK. Also this is a home game for a young QB which is important.
- If Tampa can put up a couple of quick scores that would be the worst case scenario for the Bears but if that doesn’t happen…I think the Bears should be able to run on them and eek out a tight win.
The play: Pass, lean towards Bears -3. Lean towards under 46.5
Philly/Tennessee +4 (41)
- Philly is an all world defense, and apparently Tennessee has a strong D too keeping them in games despite Blake fucking Gabbert and Mariota (who can’t grip a damn football).
- The difference is a just-returning from injury Wentz who can make shit happen. I think Agalhor is playing and Jeffrey is back as well.
- Philly’s RBs are hurt but they are listed as day to day as well.
- It sounds like a lot for a road team to be a 4pt favorite, and usually home dogs are always the play however this might be a 17-10 game and I like the ability of Wentz here over Gabbert/Mariota.
The play: Philly -4, lean towards the under.
Seattle/Arizona +3.5 (38.5)
- Both are solid defenses (Seattle surprisingly still good) and one dimensional offenses.
- Rosen’s first game. Behind a not so great O-line and an aggressive defense. Seattle will also stack the box.
- On the other side, Zona will prevent Seattle from running as well.
The play: Pass, lean towards under 38.5
Cleveland/Oakland -3 (45)
- Baker-mania
- Raiders are bad but they are good bad
- Browns D is good
- 10 days for Cleveland to prepare
- Browns hype train is loaded and it's easy to fade...but sometimes people/the higher ups like to let these narratives go to generate interest.
The play: Pass. Lean towards Browns +3.
49ers/Chargers -10.5 (46.5)
- Chargers might not have Allen.
- Chargers still don’t have their pass rush healthy but the 49ers O line is trash
- I think the Chargers offensive is legit. 49ers D is terrible. There is a chance the Chargers put up 40 points.
The play Chargers -10 (-115). Pass on total.
Saints/Giants +3.5 (50)
- Saints just won in Atlanta in a huge divisional game. Could be a let down spot.
- They don’t have much of a defense and while Lattimore is good, the rest of their secondary gets lit up routinely (see Ridley last week).
- Our offense on the other hand does have weapons but I don’t know if we can keep up with Saints.
- Olivier Vernon might be back and he could help mount a pass rush.
- Lots of hype on Giants. And the whole dome team going to the east coast is a big thing BUT its really not bad in terms of weather around here.
The play ____Can’t lose anymore money on Gmen lol.
Baltimore/Pitt -3 (51)
- Pitt put up a ton of points against the Bucs and the Chiefs both of which are shitty defenses.
- Last time they played a decent defense was the Browns (and points were limited but the weather was bad)
- Overall the offense won’t be able to do the same thing on the Baltimore Ravens
- Ravens should be able to score on the Steelers tho.
- I think the Steelers will show up at home but ultimately the Ravens will prevail
The play Ravens +3. Under 51.
Chiefs/Broncos +4.5 (56)
- Okay so the Chiefs have the best offense in the AFC true. Butttt they really haven’t played a good defense yet. Broncos will be their first real challenge and the first road game for Maholmes.
- Chiefs haven’t really been able to run the ball either.
- The chiefs defense on the other hand is a known quantity of being bad.
- Idk, lots of points to be laying on the road. One good team has to not cover and I like the Broncos to get up for this game.
The play Broncos +4.5. Will stay away from the total (its too high).
First of all shout outs to Tigertoy, EKG, BR, BigCat (NCAAF) and the rest of you guys...Never place my plays until looking at those threads at the least.
Week 4 Narratives
Miami/NE -6.5 (47.5)
- Miami is 3-0 but have beaten the likes of the Raiders/Jets/Titans. Not exactly world beaters.
- NE is 1-2, got beat up by Jax (top defense in a revenge game), and Lions (Matt Patricia knows the weaknesses and game planned for months).
- NE would be down 3 games in the division if they lose this
- They are home…post 2 straight losses
- They should get back Gordon
- Miami has injuries on defense now (multiple pass rushers out)
The play: NE -6 (-120), lean towards the under as I think Michel will have some success
Houston/Indy -1.5 (47.0)
- Colts have been a surprisingly tough team and are a couple of breaks from being 2-1 or 3-0
- Houston has looked god awful. They did have a good 2H against the Giants though.
- Houston’s strength is it’s wideouts and Watsons big play ability and the Colts have bad corners (They were handled pretty well by the Bengals who put up a ton of points). Also have starting safeties potentially hurt.
- Houston desperate, can’t go down 0-4
- Luck is still suspect and the Colts offense has not been great. Texans may be able to put some pressure up front.
The play: Houston +1.5.
Cincinnati/Atlanta -4 (51.5)
- Cincinnati’s offense has been clicking this entire season and putting up big points when Green is playing. He’s hurt but he should be playing.
- Cincinnati has a better defense than Saints I think, especially generating pressure.
- Atlanta has a bunch of people out on defense and got carved up last week.
- Think this is going to be a high scoring affair and generally would take points but I don’t like betting against Falcons at home especially as they look to keep pace with the Saints.
The play: small play on Bengals +4
Buffalo/Green Bay -10 (45)
- Buffalo with the win of the last 25 years last week on the road. Again a heavy dog.
- Shady should be back and can potentially take pressure off of Allen who was effective with his legs against the Vikings.
- Rodgers hasn’t looked right all year and is a rough hit from being taken out of the game.
- I don’t think the Packers defense is any good..like at all
- Aaron Jones however is a legit rusher and should be the lead back for the Packers by the end of the game
The play: Pass. No idea.
Jets/Jaxx -7.5 (38.5)
- Jacksonville’s offense is very inconsistent and largely opposing pass rush dependent. The Jets seem like they have a pretty solid defense all things considered.
- Jets however won’t be able to move the ball at all against this Jax defense and will likely get sacked a ton too.
- Jax might be looking ahead to the Chiefs matchup next week as well
- Darnold is known to be loose with the ball and could be forced into turnovers here
- Fournette is gonna play?
The play: Jacksonville -7 (-120), pass on the total but lean on the under
Tampa/Chicago -3 (46.5)
- Tampa can really put up points and they have people you can’t really game plan for either like Mike Evans. The only problem is that when pressured, Fitzmagic can turn into Fitztragic.
- On defense, tampa doesn’t really force any pressure on opposing offenses so Trabisky should be OK. Also this is a home game for a young QB which is important.
- If Tampa can put up a couple of quick scores that would be the worst case scenario for the Bears but if that doesn’t happen…I think the Bears should be able to run on them and eek out a tight win.
The play: Pass, lean towards Bears -3. Lean towards under 46.5
Philly/Tennessee +4 (41)
- Philly is an all world defense, and apparently Tennessee has a strong D too keeping them in games despite Blake fucking Gabbert and Mariota (who can’t grip a damn football).
- The difference is a just-returning from injury Wentz who can make shit happen. I think Agalhor is playing and Jeffrey is back as well.
- Philly’s RBs are hurt but they are listed as day to day as well.
- It sounds like a lot for a road team to be a 4pt favorite, and usually home dogs are always the play however this might be a 17-10 game and I like the ability of Wentz here over Gabbert/Mariota.
The play: Philly -4, lean towards the under.
Seattle/Arizona +3.5 (38.5)
- Both are solid defenses (Seattle surprisingly still good) and one dimensional offenses.
- Rosen’s first game. Behind a not so great O-line and an aggressive defense. Seattle will also stack the box.
- On the other side, Zona will prevent Seattle from running as well.
The play: Pass, lean towards under 38.5
Cleveland/Oakland -3 (45)
- Baker-mania
- Raiders are bad but they are good bad
- Browns D is good
- 10 days for Cleveland to prepare
- Browns hype train is loaded and it's easy to fade...but sometimes people/the higher ups like to let these narratives go to generate interest.
The play: Pass. Lean towards Browns +3.
49ers/Chargers -10.5 (46.5)
- Chargers might not have Allen.
- Chargers still don’t have their pass rush healthy but the 49ers O line is trash
- I think the Chargers offensive is legit. 49ers D is terrible. There is a chance the Chargers put up 40 points.
The play Chargers -10 (-115). Pass on total.
Saints/Giants +3.5 (50)
- Saints just won in Atlanta in a huge divisional game. Could be a let down spot.
- They don’t have much of a defense and while Lattimore is good, the rest of their secondary gets lit up routinely (see Ridley last week).
- Our offense on the other hand does have weapons but I don’t know if we can keep up with Saints.
- Olivier Vernon might be back and he could help mount a pass rush.
- Lots of hype on Giants. And the whole dome team going to the east coast is a big thing BUT its really not bad in terms of weather around here.
The play ____Can’t lose anymore money on Gmen lol.
Baltimore/Pitt -3 (51)
- Pitt put up a ton of points against the Bucs and the Chiefs both of which are shitty defenses.
- Last time they played a decent defense was the Browns (and points were limited but the weather was bad)
- Overall the offense won’t be able to do the same thing on the Baltimore Ravens
- Ravens should be able to score on the Steelers tho.
- I think the Steelers will show up at home but ultimately the Ravens will prevail
The play Ravens +3. Under 51.
Chiefs/Broncos +4.5 (56)
- Okay so the Chiefs have the best offense in the AFC true. Butttt they really haven’t played a good defense yet. Broncos will be their first real challenge and the first road game for Maholmes.
- Chiefs haven’t really been able to run the ball either.
- The chiefs defense on the other hand is a known quantity of being bad.
- Idk, lots of points to be laying on the road. One good team has to not cover and I like the Broncos to get up for this game.
The play Broncos +4.5. Will stay away from the total (its too high).
