Sunday 09/30/2018 ... Comps / Bonus Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Requests Etc.

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Sunday, Sept. 30

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7, 47.5)

The Dolphins are unbeaten on the season and against the number, but they head to Foxboro as decisive underdogs with Vegas not respecting their three opening wins. That's probably because the Fins haven't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, a span of nine seasons. New England is 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against their AFC East rivals.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 47)

The Texans limp into Lucas Oil Stadium looking for their first victory of the season. They might still be searching for a win after the weekend, as they are just 2-7 SU/3-5-1 ATS in their past nine trips to Indianapolis. The total might also seem rather high considering the 'under' has connected in nine straight meetings in Indy.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons (-6, 51)

The Bengals were aiming to go unbeaten through three, but they were unable to break the bank in Charlotte against the Panthers. If you're feeling the Falcons, Mirage-MGM opened the line at -5 1/2, and still had it there as of Tuesday morning. Where there has been movement is on the total, opening at MGM at 50 1/2, bumping up to 51 1/2 in just a few hours.

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)

The Bills changed the course of their season with a stunning upset win in Minnesota last week, and now they're look to win as a double-digit 'dog for the second straight week. All Vegas books have the Packers at 10 or higher, but you can still get in on the Pack at -9 1/2 at Treasure Island. There might be some doubt about the Packers, though, as QB Aaron Rodgers were limping noticeably in last week's loss in D.C. and bettors might be just one hit away from QB DeShone Kizer time.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 43.5)

The Lions gained the first win for new head coach Matt Patricia, dropping mentor Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots on Sunday night. The line is a field goal across the board all except Westgate has the 'Boys at -3.5, while Treasure Island has the home team at just - 2 1/2 as of Tuesday AM.

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38)

One week the Jags looked like a Super Bowl contender, then a 9-6 loss against the Tennessee Titans and their backup quarterback makes you wonder about their staying power. Vegas feels confident they'll rebound, especially against a team which lost to the lowly Cleveland Browns, ending their 18-game losing skid.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 48)

'Fitz-magic' ran out on Monday night against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers and now we get a chance to see how they rebound against the Bears D. There are some questions about the QB here, as Jameis Winston is eligible to return from a three-game suspension. Of course, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown for 400 or more yards in three straight -- becoming the first-ever QB to accomplish the feat in NFL history. Surely there won't be a change, right?

Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 41.5) at Tennessee Titans

The defending champs got their QB Carson Wentz back last week after a torn ACL last November shelved him until last Sunday. Philly won, but they failed to cover against an AFC South team, the Indianapolis Colts. The Titans grinded out a 9-6 win in 'Sacksonville', but they also have some QB questions with Blaine Gabbert in the concussion protocol and Marcus Mariota thrust into action despite an elbow issue.

Seattle Seahawks (-3, 38.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Seahawks and Cardinals love to win on each other's field. The visiting team is 8-1-1 SU over the past 10 meetings in this series, and the Cardinals are 0-4-1 SU/ATS in their past five home games against the 'Hawks. The 'under' is also 3-0 in the past three meetings in this series. That's likely why everyone book has Seattle laying a field goal, with the line opening at -3 1/2 at Mirage-MGM.

Cleveland Browns at Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 45)

The Browns got off the schneid last week with a win over the Jets, while the Raiders are still searching for their first win in the second installment of Chucky-mania. The books aren't buying into the late-game heroics of rookie QB Baker Mayfield last week, favoring the winless Raiders at home.

Bettors love the Raiders, particularly at Westgate and William Hill. The Browns opened as a pick 'em at Westgate, but bettors pushed the Raiders all the way up - 2 1/2 before leveling off with some money coming in on Cleveland to knock it down to two. William Hill opened at -1 in favor of Oakland, and it's up to -2 1/2 as of Tuesday morning. If you're feeling Mayfield and the second-place Browns, check out the offshore books, where Betonline.ag has the Browns catching three points.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Chargers (-10.5, 47.5)

The 49ers are reeling after losing QB Jimmy Garoppolo to a torn ACL, and the road team is a double-digit favorite across the board. With offensive issues, the total might be a bit high, but it is holding steady at 47 1/2 at the Golden Nugget and the Wynn.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 50) at New York Giants

The Saints rolled up 40-plus points for the second time in three games with a win at Atlanta last week. However, they will be heading outside into the elements for the first time in 2018, while the Giants are trying to follow up a win for the first time in 2018. The early money is on the Saints, with the line opening at -3 and bumping to -3 1/2 at Peppermill, Stratosphere and Southpoint, as well as Westgate.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 48.5)

The Steelers picked up their first win of the season in Tampa, and face a quick turnaround with their rival Ravens visiting the Steel City on Sunday night. The home team is 8-2 SU over the past 10 home games, but the Steelers are 0-2-1 ATS over their past thre at home against Baltimore. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Heinz Field, and that might be an attractive play considering the Steelers defense cannot seem to stop anyone. The 'over' is 3-0 for Pittsburgh so far, averaging 29.3 PPG on offense while allowing 30.0 PPG on defense.
 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

Tampa Bay and Ryan Fitzmagic, er, Fitzpatrick are the talk of the league, but they’ve still got some Week 3 work to do, hosting Pittsburgh in a Monday night affair. The Buccaneers (2-0 SU and ATS) shocked New Orleans in Week 1 as a 10-point road pup, then beat defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia 27-21 catching 3 points at home in Week 2.

After a tough Week 1 loss at Green Bay, Chicago bounced back with a pair of victories. The Bears (2-1 SU and ATS) rallied from a 14-0 first-quarter deficit to grab a 16-14 victory over Arizona as 5.5-point road faves in Week 3.

“We opened the Bears -1.5, took a couple bets on them and moved it to -2,” Murray said. “Chicago struggled offensively against Arizona, but the public believes in its defense, and I can see why. This number could change depending on the ‘Monday Night Football’ game between the Steelers and Bucs.”

Later Sunday, the line ticked up another notch to Chicago -2.5.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+4.5)

Kansas City quarterback Pat Mahomes is another big developing story this season, with 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions through three weeks. In Week 3 against San Francisco, Mahomes had three TDs as the Chiefs (3-0 SU and ATS) built a 35-7 lead and cruised to a 38-27 win laying 5.5 points at home.

Denver played its first two games in the friendly confines of the Mile High City and won both. Week 3 on the road wasn’t nearly as kind, with the Broncos (2-1 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) tumbling to Baltimore 27-14 getting 5.5 points.

“We opened the Chiefs -4.5 and took a bet on the Broncos, but left it,” Murray said, though later Sunday, the line did tick down to 4. “We will need the Broncos in this game. The public loves the Chiefs for all the same reasons I said they love the Rams. I can see why. Mahomes looks unbelievable right now. I’m confident books all over Nevada will have big liabilities on the Chiefs next Monday night.”

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.5)

Perennial Super Bowl contender New England is off to a shaky start this season. After getting dominated at Jacksonville in Week 2, the Patriots couldn’t build any momentum at Detroit, losing 23-10 as a 7-point fave.

With the Pats out of the gate slowly, Miami finds itself atop the AFC East. The Dolphins (3-0 SU and ATS) dropped Oakland 28-20 laying 3 points at home, but this Week 4 road trip will easily be their sternest test so far.

“We opened the Patriots -9.5, despite the Dolphins getting off to an impressive 3-0 start,” Murray said. “I’ve been impressed with the Dolphins and consider New England to be a little on the overrated side right now, but we know where the money will come in on this game. The Patriots will be included in every moneyline parlay and teaser next week.”

The Superbook moved down a tick to 9 just before the Patriots kicked off at Detroit, and then took the game off the board, which is standard operating procedure when a team is playing in the Sunday nighter. The matchup will be reposted on Monday morning.
 

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Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 27-18-2
Against the Spread 20-26-1
 

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The largest underdogs to win straight up

Bills (+17, ML +1000) at Vikings, 27-6
Titans (+10, ML +400) at Jaguars, 9-6
Lions (+7, ML +280) vs. Patriots, 26-10
Giants (+6, ML +230) at Texans, 27-22
 

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The largest favorite to cover

Rams (-7) vs. Chargers, 35-23
Chiefs (-6) vs. 49ers, 38-27
Ravens (-5.5) vs. Broncos, 27-14
Browns (-3) vs. Jets, 21-17
Dolphins (-3) vs. Raiders, 28-20
 

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Miami Nice

-- The Miami Dolphins have fired out to a 3-0 SU/ATS record after topping the Oakland Raiders by a 28-20 score. The Dolphins have been particularly solid at home, averaging 27.5 points per game (PPG) while allowing 20.0 PPG, and the 'over' has connected in each of their two at Hard Rock Stadium. The Dolphins hold a two-game lead on everyone in the AFC East Division through three weeks and they can take a commanding lead with a win in Week 4 on the road against the New England Patriots, who limp home from the Motor City on a two-game losing streak.
 

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Injury Report

-- Bengals WR A.J. Green (groin) left Sunday's game at Carolina due to a groin injury, but he feels he'll be ready for Week 4.

-- 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) is believed to have suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament on a non-contact situation in Kansas City late in the game.

-- Giants TE Evan Engram (knee) was knocked out of the Week 3 victory in Houston due to a knee injury and he was unable to return.

-- Patriots RB Rex Burkhead (neck) suffered a neck injury in the third quarter of the game in Detroit and he was unable to return.

-- Titans QB Blaine Gabbert (concussion) started against his former team, but he was knocked out, forcing QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) into action.
 

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-- The winless Texans will head to Indianapolis to battle the Colts in Week 4. Over the years it hasn't been a great place for Houston to visit, as they're 2-7 SU in their past 10 visits while going 3-5-1 ATS. The 'under' has also cashed in each of the past nine meetings in Indianapolis.
 

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The Patriots host the Dolphins on Sunday. Miami hasn't won in Foxboro since Sept. 21, 2008, losing nine straight trips. The Patriots are 7-2 ATS during the nine-game home win streak against the Dolphins, including covers in each of the past six meetings in New England. The 'over' is 3-1 in the past four meetings in Foxboro, too.
-- The Cardinals and Seahawks meet in Arizona, and the home team has really struggled in this series. Arizona is 0-4-1 SU/ATS across their past five home games against Seattle with the 'under' cashing in each of the past three meetings in the desert. In this series, the home team is just 1-8-1 SU across the past 10 meetings.
 

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The Steelers will host the Ravens in Week 4, and there has been a huge home-field advantage in this series. The home team has won eight of the past 10 meetings in this series, although Pittsburgh is 0-2-1 ATS in the past three at Heinz Field. The 'over' has also cashed in three of the past four meetings at Heinz Field.
 

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'Overs' for NFL teams off a TNF home game – 2-0 O/U in 2018, 22-11 O/U since start of 2016

A common angle many bettors love to mention each week in the NFL is to back those teams off a Thursday Night football game because they've just had what amounts to a “mini-bye”. Rest is key in the NFL and for those teams who had to deal with an extremely short week, reaping the rewards the following week has to be the goal. But what appears to be the better angle here is to take those TNF teams who were at home and play the total 'over' the number the next week.

We've already seen this angle go 2-0 O/U this season with Philly (home on TNF in Week 1) cash an 'over' ticket in Week 2, and this past week it worked again with the Cincinnati Bengals sailing 'over' the number in their game against Carolina. Whether it's because these TNF home teams get the added benefit of not having to travel on that short week – to or from that TNF game – or it's a simple case of extra rest, prep time, and film scouting – including scouting their next opponent live on Sunday/Monday prior to facing them - we will probably never know. But this trend can't be ignored at this point because it's not like it hasn't been consistent either. Last year saw this scenario go 9-5 O/U and 2016 finished with an 11-5 O/U mark.

Side note for those of that are wondering, those numbers do not include the Thanksgiving afternoon games in Detroit and Dallas every year, but those specific teams went 2-0 O/U in 2017 and 0-2 O/U in 2016 following those Thanksgiving contests.

This means that Browns fans – if they've stopped drinking in celebration from Cleveland's TNF win in Week 3 – better be prepared for some more great play from Baker Mayfield in Oakland for Week 4. It's the Cleveland/Oakland game that fits this scenario in Week 4 and wouldn't you know it we've already seen the opener of 44.5 be pushed up to 45 as of this writing.
 

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2017 One-Year Wonder QB's Case Keenum, Deshaun Watson, and Jimmy Garoppolo winless ATS in 2018

There are only three NFL teams that remain winless against the spread through three games in 2018 (Pittsburgh could be the 4th after MNF tonight) and they would be the Denver Broncos (0-2-1 ATS), Houston Texans (0-3 ATS) and San Francisco 49ers (0-3 ATS). Those numbers are a complete about face for those respective QB's as Denver's Case Keenum, Houston's Deshaun Watson, and San Francisco's Jimmy Garoppolo were ATS darlings when they were on the field just a season ago.

Garoppolo's record likely isn't going to get any better as he's feared to be lost for the season with a knee injury which is a shame, but should we be fading these guys/teams in the immediate future?

Regarding Keenum, he parlayed a great season as the replacement in Minnesota last year into a big contract and starting role in Denver, but through three games he has looked like the journeyman backup he was his entire career prior to 2017. There may still be time to give him another week or two given he is with a new team, but the leash can't be that long anymore for Keenum in Denver. The Broncos and Keenum are home dogs against the high-powered Chiefs on MNF in Week 4 which is an interesting spot to say the least in terms of how much trust you want to have in Keenum and the Broncos.

Over in Houston, HC Bill O'Brien appears to be taking ALL the heat for the Texans 0-3 SU and ATS start simply because NFL fans saw how Deshaun Watson torched opposing defenses in his handful of games a year ago before getting hurt. But I believe Watson has to share nearly equal blame in this rough start (if he wasn't off an ACL it would be 50/50), because it's not like O'Brien wasn't the head guy last year during that great run by Houston and those same NFL fans were heaping praise on him for the move. Maybe the Texans (and Watson) are being overly cautious with his return, but the Texans offense just eclipsed 20 points for the first time in 2018 in Week 3 and it was only because they got a garbage time TD to do so.

It may be time for bettors to start really considering that maybe Watson wasn't all he was cracked up to be during that great run in 2017 and understand that the same issue that has plagued Houston since their existence – a lack of a quality QB – is still the issue in 2018. Three games off an ACL I'm willing to give Watson the benefit of the doubt, but a poor showing by this Texans offense as road dogs in Indy this week may be the end of the line for O'Brien in Houston, or maybe even Watson as the starter of this team for a week or two.
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

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MIAMI (3 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 72-100 ATS (-38.0 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 56-80 ATS (-32.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 29-12 ATS (+15.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 28-12 ATS (+14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 22-8 ATS (+13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (0 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (2 - 1) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (1 - 2) at GREEN BAY (1 - 1 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 108-79 ATS (+21.1 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 188-135 ATS (+39.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (1 - 2) at DALLAS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 137-173 ATS (-53.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (1 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 2-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) at TENNESSEE (2 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 50-28 ATS (+19.2 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (0 - 3) - 9/30/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-1 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (1 - 1 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 3) - 9/30/2018, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 10-24 ATS (-16.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 50-82 ATS (-40.2 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 14-28 ATS (-16.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 60-84 ATS (-32.4 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 76-106 ATS (-40.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 20-35 ATS (-18.5 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 2) at LA CHARGERS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (2 - 1) at NY GIANTS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2018, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (0 - 1 - 1) - 9/30/2018, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, October 1

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KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) at DENVER (2 - 1) - 10/1/2018, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Week 4

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Trend Report


Sunday, September 30

Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games
Philadelphia is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Tennessee Titans
Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia


Buffalo Bills
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 7-12-3 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
Buffalo is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Green Bay is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
Green Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo


Detroit Lions
Detroit is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Detroit's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games on the road
Detroit is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Detroit is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Detroit
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Detroit


Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 9 games
Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Tampa Bay is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago Bears
Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
Chicago is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Chicago is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay


New York Jets
NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games
NY Jets is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
NY Jets is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 6 games on the road
NY Jets is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Jacksonville
NY Jets is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing NY Jets
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing NY Jets


Miami Dolphins
Miami is 4-7-2 ATS in its last 13 games
Miami is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Miami's last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games on the road
Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
Miami is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games when playing New England
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
New England Patriots
New England is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games
New England is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
New England is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Miami
New England is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games when playing Miami
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami


Houston Texans
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games on the road
Houston is 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Houston is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Houston is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Indianapolis's last 10 games
Indianapolis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Indianapolis is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Houston


Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta Falcons
Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati


Seattle Seahawks
Seattle is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Seattle is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Seattle is 4-8-2 ATS in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games on the road
Seattle is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 4-0-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Seattle's last 6 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona Cardinals
Arizona is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games at home
Arizona is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
Arizona is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Arizona's last 14 games when playing at home against Seattle
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle


Cleveland Browns
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Cleveland is 8-16-1 ATS in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 1-18-1 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Cleveland is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Cleveland's last 16 games on the road
Cleveland is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Oakland
Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland Raiders
Oakland is 4-11-2 ATS in its last 17 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Oakland's last 10 games
Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Oakland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Oakland is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland


San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Francisco is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
San Francisco is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games
San Francisco is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Chargers
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing LA Chargers
Los Angeles Chargers
LA Chargers is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
LA Chargers is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of LA Chargers's last 14 games
LA Chargers is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home
LA Chargers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
LA Chargers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 10 games when playing San Francisco


New Orleans Saints
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
New Orleans is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games
New Orleans is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
New York Giants
NY Giants is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games
NY Giants is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
NY Giants is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
NY Giants is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
NY Giants is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
NY Giants is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 7 games when playing at home against New Orleans


Baltimore Ravens
Baltimore is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Baltimore's last 15 games
Baltimore is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games on the road
Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
Pittsburgh is 18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games at home
Pittsburgh is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games when playing at home against Baltimore
 

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Dunkel

Week 4

Sunday, September 30

Miami @ New England

Game 251-252
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.951
New England
135.103
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New England
by 9
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New England
by 6 1/2
47 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
New England
(-6 1/2); Under

Houston @ Indianapolis

Game 253-254
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
126.396
Indianapolis
125.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Indianapolis
by 1 1/2
47
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+1 1/2); Over

Cincinnati @ Atlanta

Game 255-256
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
132.849
Atlanta
135.430
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 2 1/2
56
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
by 5 1/2
51
Dunkel Pick:
Cincinnati
(+5 1/2); Over

Buffalo @ Green Bay

Game 257-258
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Buffalo
131.726
Green Bay
125.283
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Buffalo
by 6 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Green Bay
by 10 1/2
45
Dunkel Pick:
Buffalo
(+10 1/2); Over

Detroit @ Dallas

Game 259-260
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
129.689
Dallas
128.971
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 1
47
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 3
43 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(+3); Over

NY Jets @ Jacksonville

Game 261-262
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NY Jets
124.014
Jacksonville
139.284
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 15
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 7
38 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-7); Under

Tampa Bay @ Chicago

Game 263-264
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tampa Bay
130.654
Chicago
135.667
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 5
42
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago
by 3
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(-3); Under

Philadelphia @ Tennessee

Game 265-266
September 30, 2018 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Philadelphia
139.716
Tennessee
131.220
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 8 1/2
33
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
41 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Under

Seattle @ Arizona

Game 267-268
September 30, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Seattle
131.870
Arizona
123.049
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Seattle
by 9
34
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Seattle
by 3
39
Dunkel Pick:
Seattle
(-3); Under

Cleveland @ Oakland

Game 269-270
September 30, 2018 @ 4:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Cleveland
127.935
Oakland
123.499
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 4 1/2
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
by 3
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+3); Over

San Francisco @ LA Chargers

Game 271-272
September 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
San Francisco
132.338
LA Chargers
131.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Francisco
by 1
52
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Chargers
by 10 1/2
46 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
San Francisco
(+10 1/2); Over

New Orleans @ NY Giants

Game 273-274
September 30, 2018 @ 4:25 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New Orleans
131.140
NY Giants
130.852
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
NY Giants
Even
39
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 3 1/2
50
Dunkel Pick:
NY Giants
(+3 1/2); Under

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

Game 275-276
September 30, 2018 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Baltimore
135.505
Pittsburgh
135.440
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Baltimore
Even
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Pittsburgh
by 3
51
Dunkel Pick:
Baltimore
(+3); Under


Monday, October 1

Kansas City @ Denver

Game 277-278
October 1, 2018 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kansas City
133.045
Denver
131.018
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Kansas City
by 2
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Kansas City
by 5
56
Dunkel Pick:
Denver
(+5); Under
 

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NFL


Week 4


Sunday
Dolphins (3-0) @ Patriots (1-2)— Miami’s fast start makes this a more important game than it usually is, seeing how Patriots lost last two games, outscored 57-30 (34-6 in 1st half). NE lacks outside threat at WR, so Gronkowski is always doubled; Pats are 10-35 on 3rd down this year. NE is 22-12-3 in last 37 games as home favorites, 24-11 vs spread coming off a loss. Miami scored seven TD’s on 21 drives in last two games; they had three TD plays of 34+ yards LW in comeback win over Raiders. Dolphins are +4 in turnovers but only 10-41 on 3rd down; since ’14, they’re 10-16 as road underdogs. Home side won 10 of last 11 series games; Dolphins lost last nine visits here, with five of last six losses here by 10+ points.

Texans (0-3) @ Colts (1-2)— Third road game in four weeks for 0-3 Houston that has losses by 7-3-5 points; they were outscored 55-19 in first half of games. Texans won field position in all three games, but have no takeaways in last two, and scored only 43 points in 11 visits to red zone this year- they’re 10-16 vs spread in last 26 road games. Colts were outgained 379-209 in 20-16 loss at Philly LW; they’ve had only seven plays of 20+ yards this month, have yet to average more than 5.5 yds/pass attempt in any game. Indy is 8-3 in last 11 series games; they beat Houston 20-14/22-13 LY, but Texans did win two of last three visits here. Last 2+ years, Colts are 14-7 vs spread when coming off a loss.

Bengals (2-1) @ Falcons (1-2)— Atlanta’s defense fell apart at end of game LW; on Saints’ last four drives, they gave up 247 yards on 38 plays, four TD’s in an OT loss. Cincy scored 89 points in its 2-1 start, scoring 6.5 pts/red zone drive- they lost at Carolina last week because Dalton threw four picks. Atlanta gained 442/407 yards last two games; under Quinn, they’re 9-14 as home favorites (6-4 in last 10). Bengals are 3-8-1 vs spread in last dozen games as road dogs; since 2013, Cincy is 18-12-1 coming off a loss. Falcons won three of last four series games; Cincy lost their last three visits here- their last win in Atlanta was in ’87. Under is 7-6 in dome games so far this year; from 2013-17, over was 59% in games played in domes.

Bills (1-2) @ Packers (1-1-1)— Over last decade, Buffalo is 22-38-3 vs spread coming off a win; LW they pulled NFL’s biggest upset in 23 years. Third road game in four weeks for Bills; under McDermott, they’re 4-4 as road underdogs. Buffalo’s TY in three games: 153-293-292; they won LW because they won field position by 22 yards, a huge margin. Green Bay is 26th in NFL in red zone scoring; hey averaged 5.5/4.9 yds/pass attempt last two games- Rodgers’ gimpy knee prevents him from scrambling as much as normal. Since ’14, Packers are 17-9-2 as home favorites, but only 1-4 in last five games when laying double digits. Home side won last seven series games; Bills lost last three visits here, by 10-10-27 points.

Lions (1-2) @ Cowboys (1-2)— Short week for Lions after they upset Patriots Monday (TY was 414-209 Det, so maybe not a big upset). Detroit QB Stafford is from Dallas area, this is a homecoming here; Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning last two, 24-20, 42-21. Lions lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 16-4-21 points. Since ’13, Detroit is 16-22-3 vs spread coming off a win- they’re 12-19 in last 31 games as road underdogs. Dallas offense is struggling; they’re last in NFL with only four plays of 20+ yards. Cowboys are 7-5 in last 12 games as home favorites; they’re 11-4-2 in last 17 games where spread was 3 or less points. All three Dallas games this season stayed under the total.

Jets (1-2) @ Jaguars (2-1)— Rookie QBs generally struggle on road; this is third game in four weeks for Jets squad that is near bottom of NFL in red zone scoring, and scoring on drives starting 75+ yards from EZ. Under Bowles, Gang Green is 5-8-3 as road underdogs, 12-13-2 coming off a loss. Jaguars didn’t score TD in home loss to Titans LW; Jax gained only 166 yards. Under Marrone, Jags are 4-5 as home favorites, 10-7 coming off a loss. Jets won last four series games, including 23-20 (OT) home win LY; this is their first visit here since 2012. NFL-wide, home favorites in non-divisional games are 12-8-1 vs spread so far this season. Jets had three extra days to prep here, after playing on Thursday LW.

Buccaneers (2-1) @ Bears (2-1)— Short week for Bucs after Monday nite loss; they won/covered their pre-bye game last three years. Fitzpatrick is first QB EVER to throw for 400+ yards three games in row; Tampa Bay is 8-5-1 as road dogs under Koetter, but they’re also 6-11-1 coming off a loss. Chicago was down 14-0 early in desert LW, rallied to beat woeful Cardinals; over last 10+ years, Bears are awful 16-26-3 as home favorites, but 1-0 this year- they held last two opponents to 276-221 total yards. Still don’t trust young QB Trubisky; Bears have only six plays of 20+ yards, but they’re +3 in turnovers- Chicago’s defense is sturdy. Bucs won last two series games, 36-10/29-7; teams split last four meetings here, with Tampa’s last visit here in ’14.

Eagles (2-1) @ Titans (2-1)— Tennessee won divisional games last two weeks despite gaining only 283/233 yards; they’ve got QB injury issues. Titans threw for only 83 yards in ugly 9-6 win LW when neither team scored a TD- they’ve got only five plays of 20+ yards this year. Tennessee is 3-2 in last five games as home underdogs. Philly allowed only 61.7 rushing yards/game; they gave up 393 PY in only loss, at Tampa- not likely Titans can throw for 300+. Eagles outgained Indy 379-209 in Wentz’ first game back from injury; under Pederson, Philly is 2-5 as a road favorite. Titans won four of last five series games, winning last two played here, 27-24/37-19. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Seahawks (1-2) @ Cardinals (0-3)— Home side is 0-6-1 in last seven series games; Seattle is 4-0-1 in last five visits here, with three of four wins by 12+ points. Rookie QB Rosen gets first NFL start here; he saw his first game action LW, in last two series vs Chicago, and threw two INT’s. In its first three games, Arizona gained 213-137-221 yards; they have zero red zone snaps last two games, so playing a rookie can’t be too much worse. Since ’12, Arizona is 11-6-1 as home underdogs. Seattle got its first win LW; Seahawks were +3 in turnovers- under Carroll, they’re 14-16-1 as road favorites- Wilson has been sacked 14 times already this year. So far this month, home underdogs are 4-0 vs spread in divisional games.

Browns (1-2) @ Raiders (0-3)— Oakland is 0-3 despite leading all three games at half; they’re oldest team in NFL and so far they look it, outscored 64-17 in 2nd half. This is first game they’re favored to win; over last decade, Raiders are 12-19 laying points at home. Raiders have 16 plays of 20+ yards, which is a lot, but they’ve allowed 17. Mayfield got win off bench in his NFL debut LW; this is his first NFL start. Browns’ defense held Saints to 275 yards in Superdome two weeks ago; they’re a good defense. Cleveland is 9-16 in last 25 games as road underdogs. NFC North teams are 6-2 vs spread outside division this month; AFC West teams are 4-3-1. Cleveland is 6-4 in this series, splitting six games here; teams haven’t met since ’15.

49ers (1-2) @ Chargers (1-2)— Beathard was 1-4 as 49ers’ starter LY, gets first ’18 start here vs team his grandfather Bobby was GM of from 1990-2000. Would expect Niners to try and run ball more to protect young QB; they ran ball for 190-178 yards in last two games. SF lost both road games this month, by 8-11 points. Over last decade, 49ers are 4-7 as double digit dogs. Chargers gave up 521 yards in 35-23 loss to Rams LW; since ’09, Bolts are 2-7 vs spread when laying double digits. LA is 9-14 vs spread in last 23 games as home favorites; they’ve allowed 17 plays of 20+ yards, T3rd most in NFL. Chargers won last four series games, with two of those wins in OT. All three Charger games this season have gone over total.

Saints (2-1) @ Giants (1-2)— Home side won 10 of last 11 series games, with average total in last five, 71.4; Saints lost six of last seven series games played here, losing last two 52-27/16-13- their last win here vs Giants was in ’06. Payton was once fired as OC of the Giants; don’t forget that Eli is from New Orleans. Saints scored 104 points in first three games, but all three were inside; this is 4:25 kickoff outdoors, which means end of game will be played at night. NO covered four of last five tries as road favorites. Giants allowed 20+ points in all three games; they’re 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdogs. Manning has been sacked 12 times already; Beckham has caught 24 balls for 271 yards, but no TD’s yet. Saints’ secondary is vulnerable.

Ravens (2-1) @ Steelers (1-1-1)— Home side is 8-3 in last 11 series games; Ravens lost four of last five visits here, losing last two 31-27/39-38. Short week for Steelers after 30-27 win in Tampa Monday; they had four takeaways in first half, got blanked in second but held on for win. Totals in Pitt games this season: 42-79-57, as Steelers haven’t filled big hole left by injury to LB Shazier LY. Home side won/covered all three Raven games this season; they’re 8-7-1 in last 16 games as a road underdog, 7-2-1 vs spread in last AFC North road games. Baltimore has 12 TD’s in 12 trips to red zone this year (missed one PAT). Steelers are 3-5 in last eight games as home favorites; they’re 3-5-1 vs spread in last nine NFC North home games.
 

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BYE BYE BRADFORD

The Arizona Cardinals have finally put fans out of their misery by sending Sam Bradford to the bench in favor of rookie Josh Rosen. Bradford was benched with 4:34 remaining in the fourth in Sunday’s loss and will stay there, at least for the time being. Rosen was 4 of 7 for 36 yards and an interception in his two drives as he attempted to lead the Cardinals to a comeback win over Chicago.

This week, Rosen gets a home start against a Seattle defense that limited Dak Prescott to 168 yards on 34 passing attempts in Week 3. However, the Seahawks got gashed by Ezekiel Elliott as he rumbled for 127 yards on 16 carries. Clearly, Cardinals coach Steve Wilks will want to attack the run-challenged Seahawks defense with David Johnson. Doing so will also limit the pressure on Rosen in his first career start. This bet was a winner last week so let’s go back to the well and take David Johnson to score at any time.
 

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ENGRAM TO MISS TIME

New York Giants tight end Evan Engram sprained his MCL in the Week 3 win over Houston and will miss time, meaning that Eli Manning is down one of his most talented pass catchers. Rhett Ellison is next up on the depth chart and he had three catches for 39 yards and a touchdown in Week 3, but it’s tough to back a blocking specialist that has 81 career catches in 92 games.

Instead, bettors should look towards Sterling Shepard in a delightful matchup against New Orleans this weekend. Shepard had his best game of the season against Houston, hauling in six catches for 80 yards and a touchdown on seven targets. Shepard will remain the No. 2 option behind Odell Beckham Jr. and the Saints are coming off a game in which they allowed Calvin Ridley — Atlanta’s No. 2 receiving option — seven catches, 146 yards, and three touchdowns. Let’s look towards a big game for Shepard and take the Over on his receiving yards total.
 

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