Best bets for Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Sunday's prime-time rivalry matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Total: 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Baltimore
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Sharp's take: The Ravens' defense is one of the five best in the NFL, but they have twice played bottom-third offenses (Bills and Ravens), and in the lone game in which they faced a good offense, they allowed 34 points to the Bengals. The Ravens get the services back of LB C.J. Mosley for this game, and he'll look to help stop the Steelers' run game. Pittsburgh would be wise to look for more explosive gains, as the Ravens rank as the No. 3 third-down defense.
Baltimore's offense hasn't been impressive on the ground, ranking just 22nd, but the Steelers will be the weakest run defense they have faced so far this season. The Ravens' offense has been incredible in the red zone and on third down. Across the board, the Steelers' defense looks worse than it really is, as they have played such a difficult schedule of offenses, especially the past two weeks (Chiefs and Buccaneers).
Pick: Lean Ravens +3
Johnson's take: The Ravens temporarily share the crown with the Cowboys for the NFL's best defense, giving up only 4.3 yards per play to their opponents through three weeks. Baltimore, however, hasn't really seen a gauntlet of offenses after facing the Nathan Peterman-led Bills, the Bengals and the Broncos to this point.
We can all admit that Pittsburgh is a different beast in comparison. My raw number in this matchup is Steelers minus-5.05, but after making adjustments for injuries (and holdouts) the current minus-3 in the market isn't too far off. I imagine the first reaction for most when they see the total at 50.5 is that it is way too high. They have historically played games under the 50.5 total when they meet. It's an inner-division rivalry game after all! Not so fast my frie... (am I even allowed to write that?!).
My projection for the total is 49.7. The Steelers' defense has major issues, and, like I mentioned previously, I'm not so sure this Baltimore defense is as elite as advertised thus far. If I were to bet anything in this game, it would be a look at "yards over" for James Conner when it gets posted on Sunday morning. Baltimore has struggled defending the run at times, and I envision the Steelers trying to get Conner rolling from the get-go, alleviating some of the pressure Big Ben has felt under center each of the past three weeks.
Pick: Pass
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Sunday's prime-time rivalry matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday afternoon.
Total: 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Baltimore
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Sharp's take: The Ravens' defense is one of the five best in the NFL, but they have twice played bottom-third offenses (Bills and Ravens), and in the lone game in which they faced a good offense, they allowed 34 points to the Bengals. The Ravens get the services back of LB C.J. Mosley for this game, and he'll look to help stop the Steelers' run game. Pittsburgh would be wise to look for more explosive gains, as the Ravens rank as the No. 3 third-down defense.
Baltimore's offense hasn't been impressive on the ground, ranking just 22nd, but the Steelers will be the weakest run defense they have faced so far this season. The Ravens' offense has been incredible in the red zone and on third down. Across the board, the Steelers' defense looks worse than it really is, as they have played such a difficult schedule of offenses, especially the past two weeks (Chiefs and Buccaneers).
Pick: Lean Ravens +3
Johnson's take: The Ravens temporarily share the crown with the Cowboys for the NFL's best defense, giving up only 4.3 yards per play to their opponents through three weeks. Baltimore, however, hasn't really seen a gauntlet of offenses after facing the Nathan Peterman-led Bills, the Bengals and the Broncos to this point.
We can all admit that Pittsburgh is a different beast in comparison. My raw number in this matchup is Steelers minus-5.05, but after making adjustments for injuries (and holdouts) the current minus-3 in the market isn't too far off. I imagine the first reaction for most when they see the total at 50.5 is that it is way too high. They have historically played games under the 50.5 total when they meet. It's an inner-division rivalry game after all! Not so fast my frie... (am I even allowed to write that?!).
My projection for the total is 49.7. The Steelers' defense has major issues, and, like I mentioned previously, I'm not so sure this Baltimore defense is as elite as advertised thus far. If I were to bet anything in this game, it would be a look at "yards over" for James Conner when it gets posted on Sunday morning. Baltimore has struggled defending the run at times, and I envision the Steelers trying to get Conner rolling from the get-go, alleviating some of the pressure Big Ben has felt under center each of the past three weeks.
Pick: Pass
