Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Denver Broncos
Total: 55
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Kansas City
Sharp's take: The Chiefs enter hostile territory with the No. 1 offense and No. 32 defense. However, they've played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses and a very difficult schedule of opposing offenses. The Broncos offense and defense is right in the middle of the pack, so the Chiefs offense shouldn't look quite as strong. But they should have the edge in the passing game, as the Broncos are much better defending the run (No. 5) as compared to the pass (No. 19).
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Every team the Chiefs have faced has trailed early. Most of them rally late to make the final score respectable. But those teams had solid quarterbacks in Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Jimmy Garoppolo. It will be much more difficult to envision Case Keenum rallying the Broncos in the second half. As such, the Broncos likely will start off the game with their run-heavy offense against the Chiefs' No. 30 run defense. If that strategy is successful, I envision the Broncos having a great chance. But if the Chiefs force Keenum to beat them and in turn, the Chiefs passing offense has success against a weaker Broncos secondary, expect the Chiefs to have a two-score halftime lead.
ATS Pick: Pass
Johnson's take: This game presented one of my bigger edges this week on the NFL card. My personal projection is Chiefs -2.2, so the Broncos side at +5 was one I jumped on. We know that Kansas City has been the early-season darling, but in many cases this type of start can offer us opportunities in a market that tends to overreact week-to-week.
Patrick Mahomes in Mile High Stadium is going to be his toughest test yet. I wasn't eager to jump in and back the banged-up 49ers squad in Kansas City last week despite the numbers telling me to, but this is one we shouldn't pass up. I still think there is plenty of value to warrant a play on the Broncos at the current spread of +4. There will be an extra 2.5 percent of the time a +4 pushes in this instance versus a winning ticket if one were holding +4.5 or +5. I would recommend decreasing your standard bet size in this case and take the Broncos for roughly 75 percent or 0.75x at +4 if you are unable to find a +4.5 in the current market.
ATS Pick: Broncos +4
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
Total: 55
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent Kansas City
Sharp's take: The Chiefs enter hostile territory with the No. 1 offense and No. 32 defense. However, they've played a very easy schedule of opposing defenses and a very difficult schedule of opposing offenses. The Broncos offense and defense is right in the middle of the pack, so the Chiefs offense shouldn't look quite as strong. But they should have the edge in the passing game, as the Broncos are much better defending the run (No. 5) as compared to the pass (No. 19).
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Every team the Chiefs have faced has trailed early. Most of them rally late to make the final score respectable. But those teams had solid quarterbacks in Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and Jimmy Garoppolo. It will be much more difficult to envision Case Keenum rallying the Broncos in the second half. As such, the Broncos likely will start off the game with their run-heavy offense against the Chiefs' No. 30 run defense. If that strategy is successful, I envision the Broncos having a great chance. But if the Chiefs force Keenum to beat them and in turn, the Chiefs passing offense has success against a weaker Broncos secondary, expect the Chiefs to have a two-score halftime lead.
ATS Pick: Pass
Johnson's take: This game presented one of my bigger edges this week on the NFL card. My personal projection is Chiefs -2.2, so the Broncos side at +5 was one I jumped on. We know that Kansas City has been the early-season darling, but in many cases this type of start can offer us opportunities in a market that tends to overreact week-to-week.
Patrick Mahomes in Mile High Stadium is going to be his toughest test yet. I wasn't eager to jump in and back the banged-up 49ers squad in Kansas City last week despite the numbers telling me to, but this is one we shouldn't pass up. I still think there is plenty of value to warrant a play on the Broncos at the current spread of +4. There will be an extra 2.5 percent of the time a +4 pushes in this instance versus a winning ticket if one were holding +4.5 or +5. I would recommend decreasing your standard bet size in this case and take the Broncos for roughly 75 percent or 0.75x at +4 if you are unable to find a +4.5 in the current market.
ATS Pick: Broncos +4
