How to bet Yankees-Athletics AL wild-card game
Derek Carty
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
One of the biggest stories of the 2018 season was the emergence of the "opener" strategy. The Tampa Bay Rays began the trend back in May, and over the course of the year, several other teams began to employ the strategy, including Oakland. While it's great that managers are getting more progressive and becoming open to new ideas, the practical impact of the "opener" strategy is fairly limited.
There has been much talk about Oakland's decision to do it in the wild-card game and how it will work out, but Oakland isn't actually using an "opener." Instead of starting with a reliever and then bringing in a starter, Oakland is going with a full-on bullpen game, which makes a lot of sense for a team whose best starter options are the likes of Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson.
After all, relievers are better than starters, on average, so this is certainly the best way for Oakland to maximize its chances of winning. Fiers is roughly a 4.20 ERA pitcher in a neutral context, and a properly leveraged A's bullpen would deliver perhaps a 3.70 ERA, on average. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Unfortunately for the A's, this 100 percent correct choice is still unlikely to be enough to get the job done.</offer>
Oakland Athletics (Liam Hendriks) +175 at New York Yankees (Luis Severino) -190
While relievers are better than the average starting pitcher (and much better than most of Oakland's below-average starters), an entire bullpen simply can't hold a candle to an elite starter, and that's what Oakland will be facing in Severino. Severino struggled down the stretch, drawing criticism and skepticism as to just how good he is from Yankees fans and casual baseball fans alike, but make no mistake: Severino is a top-five pitcher in baseball.
Despite a 5.57 ERA in the second half of the season, Severino posted a stellar 3.06 xFIP, simply getting bitten by bad luck on his BABIP and HR/FB. Over his final three starts, that started to correct itself. He hasn't had the kind of "consistency" people like to attribute to true aces, but consistency is a mirage -- an unsustainable, unpredictable, irrelevant mirage. Severino is elite, plain and simple. The bullpen behind him is elite -- and the offense supporting him is elite.
Las Vegas gives the Yankees an implied 66 percent chance to win here, and my system calculates that to be a little closer to 70 percent. After all, the Yankees hold the advantage in every facet of this game.
Oakland's offense, despite finishing fourth in the American League in runs scored during the regular season, just isn't all that good. When you dig into peripherals, historical stats and minor league track record, you find that many of the hitters overperformed expectations in 2018.
The primary offenders were Nick Martini and Ramon Laureano, both of whom exceeded their true talent projections by more than 50 points of wOBA and both of whom seem likely to crack the lineup in this game (one is almost certain to lead off and draw the most plate appearances). Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie and Stephen Piscotty also overperformed to varying degrees. You simply can't have the majority of a lineup overperforming and posting career years and expect it to be sustainable.
Khris Davis is the only truly great hitter, and that just doesn't stack up to a Yankees lineup that is filled with true stars and has better depth. Plus, the power-heavy slant of New York's lineup is more easily leveraged in Yankee Stadium than Oakland's lineup composition. It adds extra variance, but in a probabilistic sense, this sets up much better for the Bombers.
Las Vegas is accounting for all of this to a large degree, so the betting edge here is fairly small. You could easily opt to not bet on this game, but if you do, I have the big favorite projected as a slightly bigger favorite.
Pick: Lean Yankees -190
Derek Carty
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
One of the biggest stories of the 2018 season was the emergence of the "opener" strategy. The Tampa Bay Rays began the trend back in May, and over the course of the year, several other teams began to employ the strategy, including Oakland. While it's great that managers are getting more progressive and becoming open to new ideas, the practical impact of the "opener" strategy is fairly limited.
There has been much talk about Oakland's decision to do it in the wild-card game and how it will work out, but Oakland isn't actually using an "opener." Instead of starting with a reliever and then bringing in a starter, Oakland is going with a full-on bullpen game, which makes a lot of sense for a team whose best starter options are the likes of Mike Fiers and Edwin Jackson.
After all, relievers are better than starters, on average, so this is certainly the best way for Oakland to maximize its chances of winning. Fiers is roughly a 4.20 ERA pitcher in a neutral context, and a properly leveraged A's bullpen would deliver perhaps a 3.70 ERA, on average. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">Unfortunately for the A's, this 100 percent correct choice is still unlikely to be enough to get the job done.</offer>
While relievers are better than the average starting pitcher (and much better than most of Oakland's below-average starters), an entire bullpen simply can't hold a candle to an elite starter, and that's what Oakland will be facing in Severino. Severino struggled down the stretch, drawing criticism and skepticism as to just how good he is from Yankees fans and casual baseball fans alike, but make no mistake: Severino is a top-five pitcher in baseball.
Despite a 5.57 ERA in the second half of the season, Severino posted a stellar 3.06 xFIP, simply getting bitten by bad luck on his BABIP and HR/FB. Over his final three starts, that started to correct itself. He hasn't had the kind of "consistency" people like to attribute to true aces, but consistency is a mirage -- an unsustainable, unpredictable, irrelevant mirage. Severino is elite, plain and simple. The bullpen behind him is elite -- and the offense supporting him is elite.
Las Vegas gives the Yankees an implied 66 percent chance to win here, and my system calculates that to be a little closer to 70 percent. After all, the Yankees hold the advantage in every facet of this game.
Oakland's offense, despite finishing fourth in the American League in runs scored during the regular season, just isn't all that good. When you dig into peripherals, historical stats and minor league track record, you find that many of the hitters overperformed expectations in 2018.
The primary offenders were Nick Martini and Ramon Laureano, both of whom exceeded their true talent projections by more than 50 points of wOBA and both of whom seem likely to crack the lineup in this game (one is almost certain to lead off and draw the most plate appearances). Matt Chapman, Jed Lowrie and Stephen Piscotty also overperformed to varying degrees. You simply can't have the majority of a lineup overperforming and posting career years and expect it to be sustainable.
Khris Davis is the only truly great hitter, and that just doesn't stack up to a Yankees lineup that is filled with true stars and has better depth. Plus, the power-heavy slant of New York's lineup is more easily leveraged in Yankee Stadium than Oakland's lineup composition. It adds extra variance, but in a probabilistic sense, this sets up much better for the Bombers.
Las Vegas is accounting for all of this to a large degree, so the betting edge here is fairly small. You could easily opt to not bet on this game, but if you do, I have the big favorite projected as a slightly bigger favorite.
Pick: Lean Yankees -190
