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Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in NFL

NFL Previews 2nd October 2018 by Gracenote
Colts vs. Patriots Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/02/2018

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady will see a familiar face re-enter the huddle as trusted wideout Julian Edelman returns from a four-game suspension for Thursday's game against the visiting Indianapolis Colts. Edelman, who was banned for violating the NFL's performance-enhancing substances policy, rolled up a career-best 1,106 receiving yards in 2016 before a preseason knee injury caused him to miss the 2017 campaign.

"I know he was itching to go and he wants to get down there and show everyone that he's ready to go," said Brady, who struggled to find chemistry with his wide receivers in the first three contests before former Colt Phillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson each reeled in a touchdown reception in a 38-7 romp over Miami on Sunday. A three-time NFL Most Valuable Player, Brady ranks outside the top 20 in completion percentage (64.4 percent; 21st among QBs), passing yards per game (230; 24th) and yards per attempt (6.8; tied for 27th). Colts quarterback Andrew Luck rebounded from a pair of subpar performances to complete 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns in Sunday's 37-34 overtime setback to Houston. Luck, however, owns an 0-5 career mark versus New England and has completed just 48 percent of his pass attempts and thrown nine interceptions in three games at Foxborough, Mass.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX, NFL Network. LINE: Patriots -10. O/U: 51.5

ABOUT THE COLTS (1-3): Luck likely is to be without star wideout T.Y. Hilton (chest, hamstring) on Thursday and will look to distribute the ball to a wide receiver corps considering of Ryan Grant, Chester Rogers and Zach Pascal. The former top overall pick has found a convenient outlet in running back Nyhiem Hines (team-leading 22 catches), who led the club with nine receptions for 63 yards and two touchdowns last week. Eric Ebron has made the most of fellow tight end Jack Doyle's absence due to injury by reeling in a team-leading three touchdown receptions in his last four games. Indianapolis has gotten next-to-nil from its 29th-ranked ground game, however, with Jordan Wilkins leading the club with just 136 rushing yards.



ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2-2): While Edelman is guaranteed to be in the huddle, Rob Gronkowski isn't a slam dunk to be by his side as the mammoth tight end deals with an ankle injury. The 29-year-old Gronkowski, who reportedly was absent from Tuesday's walk-through, leads the Patriots with 233 receiving yards in four games and his 17 catches are second on the team to versatile running back James White. Speaking of running backs, Sony Michel answered a pair of lackluster performances with a stellar one on Sunday, as he rushed 25 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. Michel became the second Patriots running back to eclipse 100 yards rushing in a game since 2016 -- joining Dion Lewis, who did it twice in 2017.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Indianapolis K Adam Vinatieri, a former Patriots legend, is nursing a sore groin and did not practice on Tuesday.

2. New England CB Stephon Gilmore shares the team lead with four passes defensed, although he doesn't have one in ether of his last two games.

3. Colts rookie LB Darius Leonard has an NFL-best 54 tackles while LB Kyle Van Noy leads the Patriots with just 20.

PREDICTION: Patriots 34, Colts 14
 
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Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in MLB

MLB Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Rockies vs. Brewers Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The well-traveled Colorado Rockies play in their fourth city in five days when they open the best-of-five National League Division Series against the host Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday. The Rockies reached the NLDS by outlasting the Chicago Cubs in 13 innings in Tuesday's classic wild-card game while the red-hot Brewers are the NL Central champions.

Colorado finished the regular season at home Sunday and lost at the Los Angeles Dodgers in a division tiebreaker Monday before posting the epic 2-1 victory in Chicago on Tuesday and arriving in Milwaukee via bus at 4 a.m. on Wednesday morning. "I thought that we could do it," Rockies manager Bud Black said of reaching the postseason during his Wednesday press conference. "We could contend and match these teams. And sure enough, we have. It's a current expectation for sure. That's where we want to be." Milwaukee won its division championship in a tiebreaker Monday in Chicago and has won eight straight games and 23 of its last 30 games as it overcame a five-game September deficit. "We've been battling all year long," Brewers center fielder Lorenzo Cain said at Wednesday's press conference. "Think we were out it, back a few games in September and we found a way to win the division, so that just speaks for itself."

TV: 5:07 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rockies RH Antonio Senzatela (6-6, 4.38 ERA) vs. Brewers TBA

Senzatela finished strong by going 2-0 with a 1.62 ERA during his final three starts. The 23-year-old made 13 starts and 10 relief appearances this season and limited opposing hitters to a .220 average on the road compared to .316 at home. Sentazela's lone appearance against the Brewers came in his major league debut April 6, 2017 when he gave up two hits in five scoreless innings while receiving a no-decision.



Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell indicated at Wednesday's press conference that he will go with an "opener" and make Game 1 a bullpen game. Counsell declined to say who will start the game or would be used, saying the focus is on how "to share the 27 outs," before indicating he will use a traditional approach in Game 2. "We're going to use guys that haven't kind of been our starters this last couple weeks," said Counsell of the Game 1 plan, "so we're going to use a bunch of different guys and still deciding on exactly the order of that scenario."

WALK-OFFS

1. The Brewers went 5-2 against the Rockies in the regular season.

2. Colorado SS Trevor Story batted .333 with seven homers and 18 RBIs - including four four-RBI outings - against the Brewers this season.

3. Milwaukee star OF Christian Yelich batted .370 with 10 homers and 34 RBIs since the first of September to finish the regular season with a NL-best .326 average along with 36 homers and 110 RBIs.

PREDICTION: Brewers 7, Rockies 6
 
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Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Preview and Predictions 10-04-2018 in MLB

MLB Previews 3rd October 2018 by Gracenote
Braves vs. Dodgers Preview and Predictions

by Gracenote on 10/03/2018

The Los Angeles Dodgers were one victory away from winning the World Series last autumn and after putting in an extra day's work to secure another National League West title, they begin the NL Division Series at home Thursday against the surprising Atlanta Braves. The Dodgers overcame a 16-26 start, then beat Colorado in Monday's play-in game behind homers from Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy to secure a sixth consecutive West crown and take aim at a second straight pennant.

In a curious move, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts is pushing Clayton Kershaw back to Friday's Game 2 and will start Hyun-Jin Ryu in the opener, and the Dodgers have a distinct advantage given a lineup featuring Manny Machado, Justin Turner and breakout player Max Muncy. But the Braves are confident their return to the playoffs will turn out differently from their last postseason appearance, a four-game loss to Los Angeles in the 2013 NLDS. Rookie of the year favorite Ronald Acuna, and veterans Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis sparked the NL East champions to a 90-win season, an 18-victory improvement over 2017, and the Braves matched the Dodgers for best road record in the NL at 47-34. Los Angeles won the season series 5-2, outscoring the Braves 35-18 in winning twice at home and three times in Atlanta.

TV: 8:37 p.m. ET, MLB Network

PITCHING MATCHUP: Braves RH Mike Foltynewicz (13-10, 2.85 ERA) vs. Dodgers LH Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97)

Foltynewicz's emergence from promising prospect to NL All-Star is one big reason why Atlanta is in the playoffs, and across his final 11 starts he gave up more than two runs only twice while going 6-3 in that span and holding opponents to a .529 OPS. The 26-year-old, who makes his postseason debut, is 1-1 in two career starts against the Dodgers with a victory last season and a loss in 2018. Foltynewicz finished fifth in the NL in hits per nine innings (6.39), sixth in strikeouts (202) and tied for sixth in ERA.



Ryu has been outstanding since returning from a groin injury that cost him more than three months, posting a 1.88 ERA with five walks and 53 strikeouts in nine games since Aug. 15. The 31-year-old ended the regular season with a flourish, giving up only one run on 12 hits across 19 innings in winning his final three starts. Ryu, who did not face Atlanta this season, has pitched in three postseason games but none since 2014, giving up four runs to the Braves in a start in the 2013 NLDS.

WALK-OFFS

1. Atlanta SS Dansby Swanson (partially torn ligament in left hand) likely will miss the series, forcing former Dodgers INF Charlie Culberson into the starting lineup.

2. Los Angeles RHP Kenley Jansen gave up two solo homers in the ninth inning Monday, but since Aug. 31 is 1-0 with six saves, a 2.70 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings.

3. The Dodgers finished the regular season with a franchise-record 235 homers, led by Muncy's 35.

PREDICTION: Dodgers 4, Braves 2
 
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Kevin Rogers

2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Milwaukee 5-2, Under 4-3)

Milwaukee vs. Colorado (Coors Field)
May 10 – Brewers 5, Rockies 2 (Under 11 ½)
May 11 – Brewers 11, Rockies 10 (Over 11 ½)
May 12 – Rockies 4, Brewers 0 (Under 11)
May 13 – Brewers 7, Rockies 3 (Under 10 ½)

Colorado vs. Milwaukee (Miller Park)
August 3 – Brewers 5, Rockies 3 (Under 8 ½)
August 4 – Brewers 8, Rockies 4 (Over 8 ½)
August 5 – Rockies 5, Brewers 4 (Over 8 ½)

This month may be referred to as “Rocktober” in the Denver area after the Rockies eliminated the Cubs in the NL Wild Card game in 13 innings. However, the Rockies’ opponent in the NLDS is riding plenty of momentum as the Brewers are red-hot following a spectacular September.

On September 1, following a one-run loss to the Nationals coupled with a Cubs’ blowout win over the Phillies, the Brewers sat five games out of the lead in the NL Central race. Milwaukee turned it up over the next 30 days by winning 20 of the final 26 games, including Monday’s 3-1 triumph at Chicago to wrap up its first division title since 2011. Also, the Brewers went from potentially hosting the NL Wild Card game (with a loss to the Cubs) to owning home-field advantage throughout the National League playoffs.

Milwaukee’s resurgence this season following an 86-76 campaign in 2017 is attributed to several key offensive additions in the offseason. Most notably the pickup of outfielder Christian Yelich from the Marlins, who captured the NL batting title (.326), while finishing tied for third in home runs (36), and tied for second in RBI (110). Lorenzo Cain returned to Milwaukee after a successful stint in Kansas City as the center fielder hit .308 to go along with 30 stolen bases, which both ranked in the top-five in the NL.

The Brewers’ pitching staff showcased only one hurler that won double-digit games as former Colorado right-hander Jhoulys Chacin won a career-best 15 starts. Chacin posted career-highs in strikeouts (156) and WHIP (1.16) in his first season with the Brewers, but has lost his last three starts at Miller Park. Chacin beat the Rockies at Coors Field in May as a +135 underdog, 5-2 by tossing 5.2 innings and yielding four hits and two runs.

The Rockies overcame a ridiculous travel schedule in a three-day stretch to reach the NLDS for the first time since 2009. Colorado forced a Game 163 by routing Washington at home on Sunday, but the Rockies lost to the Dodgers in Los Angeles, 5-2 to be denied their first-ever NL West title. The Rockies then had to travel to Chicago to face a Cubs’ team that had been at home the entire weekend plus Monday in their pseudo-division championship game against the Brewers.

Colorado held off Chicago, 2-1 in 13 innings to bounce back from last year’s Wild Card loss at Arizona as the Rockies improved 10-2 in the last 12 games overall. In Tuesday’s victory at Wrigley Field, Rockies’ southpaw Kyle Freeland tossed 6.2 spectacular innings in his playoff debut as the Rockies moved to 16-2 in his previous 18 starts.

Although he lost in Game 163 to the Dodgers, right-hander German Marquez has been a key member of the Rockies’ rotation this season. Colorado has compiled a 12-5 record in his past 17 starts since the end of June, while dominating Milwaukee at Miller Park in early August. Marquez scattered three hits and two runs in seven innings, but the Colorado bullpen couldn’t hold onto a 3-2 lead as Milwaukee walked-off in the ninth inning in a 5-3 triumph.

The Brewers and Rockies are meeting in the playoffs for the first time ever as Colorado is looking to advance past the NLDS for the first time since capturing the pennant in 2007. The Brewers last reached the NLCS in 2011 as they lost to the Cardinals, while never making the World Series since moving to the National League in 1998.


2018 Head-to-Head Matchups (Los Angeles 5-2, Over 4-3)

Atlanta vs. Los Angeles (Dodger Stadium)
June 8 – Dodgers 3, Braves 1 (Over 7 ½)
June 9 – Braves 5, Dodgers 3 (Over 7 ½)
June 10 – Dodgers 7, Braves 2 (Over 7)

Los Angeles vs. Atlanta (SunTrust Park)
July 26 – Dodgers 8, Braves 2 (Over 8 ½)
July 27 – Dodgers 4, Braves 1 (Under 8)
July 28 – Dodgers 5, Braves 1 (Under 9)
July 29 – Braves 4, Dodgers 1 (Under 8 ½)

Four of the five playoff teams in the National League needed to play on Monday to decide the NL Central and NL West titles. The only team to sit back and kick their feet was the NL East champion Braves, who captured their first division crown since 2013, but owned the fewest wins of any playoff squad with 90.

Atlanta beat up the competition inside the NL East, specifically the Marlins, Phillies, and Mets, the three teams that finished with losing records. The Braves posted a solid 39-18 record against those squads, but went 51-54 against the rest of the league, while failed to put together a winning mark against any of the other NL playoff teams in the regular season.

On the positive side, the Braves finished second in the National League in batting average at .257 behind the Cubs, while scoring 759 runs, which ranked tied for fourth in the NL with the Cardinals. Three Braves’ starting pitchers owned an ERA of 3.00 or less, led by right-hander Mike Foltynewicz, who won a team-best 13 games, while mid-season acquisition Kevin Gausman was unbeaten in five starts at SunTrust Park.

Foltynewicz struck out the sixth-most batters in the NL this season with 202, while fellow starters Sean Newcomb and Julio Teheran each struck out over 160 batters. In his only start against the Dodgers this season, Foltynewicz allowed four runs in five innings of a 4-1 home defeat in July. Newcomb nearly no-hit the Dodgers in that same July series, as the southpaw settled for a 4-1 underdog victory. However, Newcomb struggled down the stretch as the Braves lost five of his final seven starts.

The Dodgers won 13 of their final 17 games to force a division championship game on Monday against the Rockies. Los Angeles cruised to a 5-2 victory to wrap up its sixth consecutive NL West title, while improving to 13-4 at home the last 17 games since getting swept by St. Louis in late August.

Prior to this season, not many people would predict that Max Muncy and Matt Kemp, who were not on the Dodgers’ roster last season, would combine for 56 home runs and 164 runs batted in. The Dodgers showcased seven players to hit at least 20 home runs this season, which doesn’t include Manny Machado, who knocked out a total of 37 home runs between his time and Los Angeles and Baltimore.

The big question heading into the postseason following last year’s Game 7 loss in the World Series to Houston is whether or not Clayton Kershaw can lead the Dodgers to their first championship since 1988. Los Angeles won four of Kershaw’s five postseason starts in 2017, but had to pitch out of the bullpen in Game 7 after the Dodgers trailed, 5-0 to the Astros. Kershaw is unbeaten in his last eight starts, while he shut down the Braves at SunTrust Park in July as the Dodgers are 7-0 in his past seven starts against Atlanta dating back to 2013.

However, Kershaw will start Game 2 for Los Angeles and turn to another left-hander in Game 1 as Hyun-Jin Ryu gets the ball. Ryu closed the regular season on fire by winning each of his final three starts, while allowing four hits in each outing and a total of one run. In Ryu’s nine home starts this season, the Dodgers posted a solid 7-2 mark as he owned a miniscule ERA of 1.15 at Chavez Ravine.

The Dodgers and Braves are meeting in the playoffs for the third time ever as Los Angeles eliminated Atlanta in four games of the NLDS back in 2013. Los Angeles had advanced to the NLCS in each of the past two seasons, while Atlanta is seeking its first trip to the NLCS since 2001 as the Braves have lost seven consecutive playoff series.
 
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Thursday, October 4

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COLORADO (92 - 72) at MILWAUKEE (96 - 67) - 5:05 PM
TYLER ANDERSON (L) vs. WADE MILEY (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-2 (+3.8 Units) against COLORADO this season
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.8 Units)

TYLER ANDERSON vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
ANDERSON is 1-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 8.59 and a WHIP of 1.636.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

WADE MILEY vs. COLORADO since 1997
MILEY is 7-2 when starting against COLORADO with an ERA of 4.03 and a WHIP of 1.319.
His team's record is 8-5 (+1.2 units) in these starts. The OVER is 8-4. (+4.2 units)

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ATLANTA (90 - 72) at LA DODGERS (92 - 71) - 8:35 PM
MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ (R) vs. HYUN-JIN RYU (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 30-41 (-24.0 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 90-71 (+19.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 15-11 (+10.1 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +175 this season.
ATLANTA is 47-34 (+19.6 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ATLANTA is 59-49 (+8.8 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ATLANTA is 40-31 (+6.7 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
ATLANTA is 46-39 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 30-32 (+19.0 Units) against the money line in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 92-71 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
LA DODGERS are 18-23 (-17.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season.
LA DODGERS are 45-37 (-21.1 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
LA DODGERS are 8-12 (-14.0 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 7 or less this season.
LA DODGERS are 49-52 (-26.2 Units) against the money line in home games when playing on Thursday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 64-53 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
LA DODGERS are 52-46 (-20.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
LA DODGERS are 11-16 (-16.5 Units) against the money line after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
RYU is 5-12 (-10.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 5-2 (+1.9 Units) against ATLANTA this season
4 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.5 Units)

MIKE FOLTYNEWICZ vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FOLTYNEWICZ is 1-1 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 5.56 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. ATLANTA since 1997
RYU is 0-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 4.22 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-2 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-2. (+0.0 units)
 
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Thursday, October 4

National League
Rockies (92-72) @ Brewers (96-67)
Senzatela is 2-0, 1.62 in his last three starts; his last six starts stayed under. Team in his starts: 7-6, 3-4 road
5-inning record: 5-6-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-13

It is a bullpen game for Milwaukee. Team in his starts: home
5-inning record: Allowed run in 1st inning:

Colorado won ten of its last 12 games, including four of last five on road. Rockies played at home Sunday, in LA Monday, in Chicago Tuesday- they’re in Milwaukee here. Brewers won their last eight games, only three of which were at home.

Colorado lost Wild Card game LY, their first playoffs appearance since 2009. Brewers are in the playoffs for first time since 2011.

Braves (90-72) @ Dodgers (92-71)
Foltynewicz is 3-1, 3.09 in his last five starts; over is 4-2 in his last six. He lost 4-1 to LA July July 27, allowing four runs in five IP. Team in his starts: 14-16, 8-7 road
5-inning record: 15-9-6 Allowed run in 1st inning: 5-30

Ryu is 3-0, 0.47 in his last three starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven. He didn’t pitch against the Braves this year. Team in his starts: 9-5, 7-2 home
5-inning record: 8-4-2 Allowed run in 1st inning: 2-14

Braves lost four of their last five games, after they had clinched NL East- they’re in playoffs for first time since 2013. Dodgers won four in row, 10 of last 13 games; they won six of last seven home games. LA is in playoffs for sixth year in row; they haven’t won a World Series since 1988.

______________________________

Teams’ records in first five innings:
Team (road-home-total)- thru 9/18
Atl 32-30-13…..35-31-10………67-61
Colo 35-29-15……37-26-11……71-55
LA 40-28-8…….34-29-16……74-57
Milw 31-34-10…..39-30-8…….70-64


%age of times teams score in first inning (road/home/total- 9/18)
Atl 23-74……31-77………54
Colo 23-78…….29-74.…….52
LA 26-75……..29-78..…..55
Milw 27-74…..…30-79…….57
 
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Thursday, October 4

Trend Report

Colorado Rockies
Colorado is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games
Colorado is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Colorado's last 16 games on the road
Colorado is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Colorado's last 12 games when playing Milwaukee
Colorado is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee's last 12 games when playing Colorado
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games when playing at home against Colorado


Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing LA Dodgers
Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Dodgers's last 9 games
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games at home
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Dodgers's last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
 
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Thursday, October 4

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TULSA (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (3 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TULSA is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses since 1992.
TULSA is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
TULSA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TULSA is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-1 straight up against TULSA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GEORGIA ST (2 - 3) at TROY (4 - 1) - 10/4/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in road games in games played on turf since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TROY is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
TROY is 2-0 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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Week 6

Trend Report

Thursday, October 4

Georgia State @ Troy
Georgia State
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Georgia State's last 13 games on the road
Georgia State is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games on the road

Troy
Troy is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Troy is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

Tulsa @ Houston
Tulsa
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston

Houston
Houston is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
 
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Dunkel

Week 6


Thursday, October 4

Tulsa @ Houston

Game 303-304
October 4, 2018 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Tulsa
74.580
Houston
88.237
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 13 1/2
79
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Houston
by 18
70
Dunkel Pick:
Tulsa
(+18); Over

Georgia State @ Troy

Game 305-306
October 4, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Georgia State
74.782
Troy
85.397
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Troy
by 10 1/2
51
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Troy
by 15 1/2
54 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia State
(+15 1/2); Under
 
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Week 6

Thursday’s games
Tulsa is 0-3 this season vs I-A teams, losing by 7-8-14 points; they were outscored 55-17 in first half of those games, all which stayed under the total. Tulsa outgained Temple by 103 yards LW but lost 31-17. Golden Hurricane lost three of its last four games with Houston, losing 38-21/38-28 in their last two visits here. Under Montgomery, Tulsa is 10-4 as road underdogs. Average total in Houston’s three I-A games (2-1) is 82.3. Cougars are 3-8-1 in last dozen games as double digit favorites; under Applewhite, they’re 5-2 as home favorites. Houston scored

Troy won four of last five games with Georgia State, winning 31-21/45-21 in last two games played here; Trojans won/covered last three games overall, are 7-10 as home favorites under Brown, 9-17 in last 26 games as double digit favorites. Troy scored 80 points in winning its last two games, after their win at Nebraska. Georgia State ran for 308 yards in an upset win over UL-Monroe LW; Panthers gave up 100 points in losing first two road games this year, 41-7 at NC State, 59-22 at Memphis- under Elliott, they’re 1-3 as road underdogs.
 
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Joe Nelson

This week’s Thursday night ESPN game comes out of the American Athletic Conference with a West division battle between Tulsa and Houston.

The Golden Hurricane fared poorly on Thursday night two weeks ago in their first conference game while this is the AAC opener for Houston. Here is a look at Thursday’s game to start college football Week 6.

Match-up: Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars
Venue: At TDECU Stadium in Houston, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, October 4, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Houston -18, Over/Under 68½
Last Meeting: 2017, at Tulsa (+14) 45, Houston 17

Houston won the inaugural AAC Championship game in 2015 and grabbed headlines nationally in 2016 with a pair of high profile upsets. That success let to Tom Herman being hired in Austin and last season former Texas quarterback Major Applewhite guided Houston to a 7-5 record in his first season as head coach.

Four of the five losses for Houston came in single score games but the one exception was a blowout loss at Tulsa, losing by 28 as a two-touchdown favorite. This season Houston is 3-1 with a notable win over Arizona while the loss came by 14 at Texas Tech. This will be the first game of the AAC season for the Cougars who figure to be the favorites in the West division with last season’s champion Memphis already 0-2 in league play.

Houston struggled to find a quarterback early last season but D’Eriq King emerged in late October, keying the upset over South Florida and finishing the season with solid results in the air and on the ground. Now a junior King has rushed less successfully and has a lower completion rate than last season but with 15 touchdowns and just one interception he has been a great leader with the offense scoring at least 45 points in every game.

Houston has rushed for over 1,000 yards in four games on 6.4 yards per carry with a committee approach as Patrick Carr leads the team with only 201 rushing yards and King leads the team with five rushing touchdowns.

Houston also has one of the highest profile defensive players in the nation with Ed Oliver a projected 1st round NFL pick next spring. Houston hasn’t had great defensive numbers this season allowing over 30 points per game after surrendering fewer than 24 points per game last season.

After a two-win 2017 season, Tulsa is expected to be an improved team with a shot at making the postseason. The 1-3 start has featured three losses in a row all against quality competition falling to Texas, Arkansas State, and opening the conference season with a 31-17 loss at Temple two weeks ago. Tulsa out-gained Temple by more than 100 yards in that game but had five turnovers including allowing two defensive touchdowns.

Luke Skipper split time at quarterback last season and has led the offense in all four games this year. He has marginal numbers with six interceptions and just 6.2 yards per attempt. Chad President is still on the roster but has only seen a few snaps this season after sharing the load last season for Philip Montgomery, in his fourth season as the head coach at Tulsa.

Montgomery led Tulsa to a bowl game in his first season and then produced a 10-win 2016 season before reversing course last year. Montgomery was an assistant at Houston from 2003 to 2007 before being the offensive coordinator at Baylor from 2008 to 2014 as a long-time assistant to Art Briles.

Houston is on the road the next two weeks making this home date an important one looking to take the division lead with only SMU and Tulane currently in the AAC West without a conference loss. Both of those teams are underdogs this week and will face off the following week as Houston is in a great position to move to the top of the standings.

Without producing an upset in the first month Tulsa could find itself needing a spectacular late season to reach six wins and earn a bowl bid. A 1-6 start looks realistic at this point hosting South Florida next week before a non-conference game at Arkansas. Road games at Memphis and at Navy will still be waiting in November as while Tulsa looked like a team that could take a positive step forward this season the path looks challenging. Upsetting Houston this week could change that trajectory.

Last season: Houston was 4-1 heading to Tulsa with the Hurricane 1-5 at the time and coming off a 62-28 loss at Tulane. It wasn’t a surprise when the Cougars took a 10-0 early lead but out of halftime Tulsa was a different team, feeding off of a big turnover to produce 17 points in the third quarter. Houston would get back within seven before Skipper hit a 70 yard pass play to seal the win for the Hurricane. Tulsa added two touchdowns in the final minute for a more convincing result than they deserved and it may be something the Houston players remember.

Historical Trends:

Houston is on a 42-31-1 run in home games since 2006 including a 6-2 ATS start under Applewhite including 3-0 as a double-digit home favorite.

Tulsa has covered in six of the past eight meetings between these schools going back to 2009 including covering in each of the last four meetings in Houston.

Tulsa is on a 22-11 ATS run as a double-digit underdog since 2010 with seven S/U upsets, going 12-4 ATS in that role since 2015 under Montgomery.
 
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Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Oct. 4

TULSA at HOUSTON...Tulsa has covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series, though neither of these sides have been too reliable lately, as UH just 9-15-1 last 25 on board and Hurricane 6-10 last 16. Tulsa is 10-4 as visiting dog for Montgomery.
Slight to Tulsa, based on series trends.


GEORGIA STATE at TROY...Ga State just 2-6-1 vs. spread last 9 in reg. season. Once-solid road dog mark taking some hits, 0-2 in role already TY. Troy only 2-5 as home chalk LY but has won and covered last 3 in 2018.
Troy, based on recent trends.
 

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