Presque Isle 10-04-2018
Last post (Indiana) was a disappointing 3 of 9 and only a couple exactas. Trifecta boxes or keys would have blown-up the card, but I don't typically play trifectas ... so losing day for me.
Gonna give PID a go today. Not sure if I've ever posted Presque Isle before. Track is tapeta but, in my opinion, looks and plays like the old polytrack Woodbine had a few years back, which I loved. The track took alot of rain last night, and truthfully I'm not sure how that will effect the bias, if at all. Will handicap based on current bias which is playing to off-the-pace style runners. There is also a slight edge to middle-in posts beyond 6f distances. So pay attention early to see if rain changed anything.
We have stakes races with shipping horses and jockeys. Considering the track surface, I would tend to lean toward jocks familiar with how it plays. Gallardo tops the jocks list and his winners have come from off-the-pace 87% of the time (28% win, 50% ITM).
race #1 - 6.5f
... tough little race.
#2 4-1 LEAVING DIXIE - shot if fires
#1 8-5 JILTED RUNAWAY - Gallardo stays for the turn-back
#4 10-1 STARDOZA - exotic booster, gonna try and give them the slip early
race #2 - 6f
#9 5-2 CHARMING ENTRY - speed threat
#2 4-1 KISS ME CANDY - jock+
#11 20-1 KAATERSKILL FALLS - bomb alert
race #3 - 8f
#4 4-1 VINTAGE TIME - going with post
#7 3-1 SYMPHONY FORTY ONE - logical with drop
#8 12-1 COCO JO JO - bomb alert
#12 8-1 GOLDEN POINT - Bracho good at 2-turns
race #4 - 6f
... weak MSW as most ran claimers
#11 5-2 TROPHY DOLL (IRE) - connections generally mean business, tons of works
#6 6-1 CAILIN ALAINN - lone closer in field full of speedballs
#9 10-1 THEYKEEPONCOMIN - eligible to improve 2nd start
#2 15-1 BROOKLYNS SURPRISE - exotic booster
race #5 - 6.5f
... 2yo stakes.
#3 5-1 AMY FARAH FOWLER
#5 3-1 BIG DRINK OF WATER - connections have crazy win%, must deal with other speed
#8 15-1 TAKE CASH OR GOLD - stalker from Thistledowns
#7 9-2 DELTA EXPRESS - last was impressive
race #6 - 6f
#2 9-2 MINERALOGY - took to track like Elvis to Rock-n-Roll
#3 5-1 TAKE CHARGE NOW
#6 3-1 CALORIC
... rest to follow shortly ...
Last post (Indiana) was a disappointing 3 of 9 and only a couple exactas. Trifecta boxes or keys would have blown-up the card, but I don't typically play trifectas ... so losing day for me.
Gonna give PID a go today. Not sure if I've ever posted Presque Isle before. Track is tapeta but, in my opinion, looks and plays like the old polytrack Woodbine had a few years back, which I loved. The track took alot of rain last night, and truthfully I'm not sure how that will effect the bias, if at all. Will handicap based on current bias which is playing to off-the-pace style runners. There is also a slight edge to middle-in posts beyond 6f distances. So pay attention early to see if rain changed anything.
We have stakes races with shipping horses and jockeys. Considering the track surface, I would tend to lean toward jocks familiar with how it plays. Gallardo tops the jocks list and his winners have come from off-the-pace 87% of the time (28% win, 50% ITM).
race #1 - 6.5f
... tough little race.
#2 4-1 LEAVING DIXIE - shot if fires
#1 8-5 JILTED RUNAWAY - Gallardo stays for the turn-back
#4 10-1 STARDOZA - exotic booster, gonna try and give them the slip early
race #2 - 6f
#9 5-2 CHARMING ENTRY - speed threat
#2 4-1 KISS ME CANDY - jock+
#11 20-1 KAATERSKILL FALLS - bomb alert
race #3 - 8f
#4 4-1 VINTAGE TIME - going with post
#7 3-1 SYMPHONY FORTY ONE - logical with drop
#8 12-1 COCO JO JO - bomb alert
#12 8-1 GOLDEN POINT - Bracho good at 2-turns
race #4 - 6f
... weak MSW as most ran claimers
#11 5-2 TROPHY DOLL (IRE) - connections generally mean business, tons of works
#6 6-1 CAILIN ALAINN - lone closer in field full of speedballs
#9 10-1 THEYKEEPONCOMIN - eligible to improve 2nd start
#2 15-1 BROOKLYNS SURPRISE - exotic booster
race #5 - 6.5f
... 2yo stakes.
#3 5-1 AMY FARAH FOWLER
#5 3-1 BIG DRINK OF WATER - connections have crazy win%, must deal with other speed
#8 15-1 TAKE CASH OR GOLD - stalker from Thistledowns
#7 9-2 DELTA EXPRESS - last was impressive
race #6 - 6f
#2 9-2 MINERALOGY - took to track like Elvis to Rock-n-Roll
#3 5-1 TAKE CHARGE NOW
#6 3-1 CALORIC
... rest to follow shortly ...
