[h=1]Betting guide for Colts-Patriots[/h]
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday's prime-time matchup? Warren Sharp, Preston Johnson and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
[h=3]Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10.5)[/h]Total: 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Tampa Bay
Johnson: We made money in Week 4 betting on the Patriots and against the Colts. I don't typically look to back or fade the same teams over and over each week, but the market closing number in the Dolphins-Patriots game was so far off of my projected number that I was hoping we would possibly get this matchup in Week 5 at single digits. I have this game lined New England -10.8 personally, but it isn't enough of a discrepancy to make a bet at -10.
I am looking, however, at <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">the total that is currently at 51. My raw projection is 47.9, which immediately catches my attention when a total is three-or-more points different than mine. Through four games the Patriots have the No. 23 offense and the Colts are sitting 30th. Defensively both teams' metrics are above average and actually top 10 when adjusted for strength of opponent. It's also worth noting that Rob Gronkowski is questionable (though expected to play), which only helps our angle betting under 51.
</offer>
Pick: Under 51
Sharp: This game could be a war of attrition. The Colts are without key offensive weapons T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, and Jack Doyle, and will be without lineman Denzelle Good. Defensively, they will be without two corners and a defensive lineman. None of that is great entering the game a double-digit underdog on the road in New England. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense gets a boost with the return of WR Julian Edelman following a four-game PED suspension and the expected return of Gronkowski.
The Patriots relied on their running game last weekend with a lot of success. There is a good chance that after building a lead, the Patriots will again look to pound the ball, given that the Colts have the No. 3 pass rush and the No. 13 pass defense. The Colts' offense, with its short passing game and the No. 4 third-down offense, should be able to move the ball against the fifth-worst defense on third downs. But whether it converts those drives into TDs is another question entirely.
With the Colts sporting the NFL's highest overall pass rate, including on first down, coupled with the fact they are likely to be trailing, look to bet over in Nyheim Hines props (none posted to date).
Pick: Pass
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Clay:
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? (Yes +105; No -125)
Brady has thrown four interceptions already this season, so that one-per-game pace might have you leaning toward "yes" here. Consider, however, that Brady is one of the all-time most prolific quarterbacks at avoiding interceptions. He's averaging roughly one every other game over the past decade and his 1.3 percent interception rate is best in the NFL since the start of the 2014 season. Brady will also benefit from the return of reliable short-area target Julian Edelman, and the Colts are expected to be without at least two -- and likely all three -- starting corners in Nate Hairston, Quincy Wilson and slot Kenny Moore II.
The pick: No (-125)
NFL VEGAS EXPERTS
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Thursday's prime-time matchup? Warren Sharp, Preston Johnson and Mike Clay provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent Tampa Bay
Johnson: We made money in Week 4 betting on the Patriots and against the Colts. I don't typically look to back or fade the same teams over and over each week, but the market closing number in the Dolphins-Patriots game was so far off of my projected number that I was hoping we would possibly get this matchup in Week 5 at single digits. I have this game lined New England -10.8 personally, but it isn't enough of a discrepancy to make a bet at -10.
I am looking, however, at <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">the total that is currently at 51. My raw projection is 47.9, which immediately catches my attention when a total is three-or-more points different than mine. Through four games the Patriots have the No. 23 offense and the Colts are sitting 30th. Defensively both teams' metrics are above average and actually top 10 when adjusted for strength of opponent. It's also worth noting that Rob Gronkowski is questionable (though expected to play), which only helps our angle betting under 51.
</offer>
Pick: Under 51
Sharp: This game could be a war of attrition. The Colts are without key offensive weapons T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack, and Jack Doyle, and will be without lineman Denzelle Good. Defensively, they will be without two corners and a defensive lineman. None of that is great entering the game a double-digit underdog on the road in New England. Meanwhile, the Patriots offense gets a boost with the return of WR Julian Edelman following a four-game PED suspension and the expected return of Gronkowski.
The Patriots relied on their running game last weekend with a lot of success. There is a good chance that after building a lead, the Patriots will again look to pound the ball, given that the Colts have the No. 3 pass rush and the No. 13 pass defense. The Colts' offense, with its short passing game and the No. 4 third-down offense, should be able to move the ball against the fifth-worst defense on third downs. But whether it converts those drives into TDs is another question entirely.
With the Colts sporting the NFL's highest overall pass rate, including on first down, coupled with the fact they are likely to be trailing, look to bet over in Nyheim Hines props (none posted to date).
Pick: Pass
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]
Clay:
Will Tom Brady throw an interception? (Yes +105; No -125)
Brady has thrown four interceptions already this season, so that one-per-game pace might have you leaning toward "yes" here. Consider, however, that Brady is one of the all-time most prolific quarterbacks at avoiding interceptions. He's averaging roughly one every other game over the past decade and his 1.3 percent interception rate is best in the NFL since the start of the 2014 season. Brady will also benefit from the return of reliable short-area target Julian Edelman, and the Colts are expected to be without at least two -- and likely all three -- starting corners in Nate Hairston, Quincy Wilson and slot Kenny Moore II.
The pick: No (-125)
