Week 6: First Big Play

ofred · Oct 4, 2018

Been a rough season wagering. Haven't had any plays too large, but still being down 22 units is the worst start I can remember.
YTD: 29-34, -22.05 units

Don't think I'll lose this one. Can't imagine taking the other side of it.

9* Alabama -22 1H Got this at two books, and think it'll get to 24 or more by Friday night. Alabama will eventually have a so-so game, maybe their A&M game was it. But Arkansas is without a doubt NOT SEC worthy. In other seasons, Vandy or Kentucky would patrol the bottom of the SEC standings. Yet even they could win an upset or cover a couple of underdog games. Arkansas has lost to a defenseless CSU team, got hammered at home vs. UNT, and played their best game last week vs. the Aggies. But if you saw that game(I did), A&M looked flat and disinterested…until late in the game. Arkansas still looked like a bad team. They had two long drives, and nothing else. 248 yards of offense.

One of the reasons this game looks so attractive is that Arkansas can't run the ball well. And Ty Storey, the new offense, are not working well. Storey is a tough kid, but he is under constant pressure and is not handling it well. I think Bama will have turnover opportunities here. Arkansas is missing their starting HB, plus their starting center, TE, 2 defensive starters, depth on their OL, and last year's top WR transferred. I don't think it'll matter that Bama is on the road. This is perhaps one of their best offenses in years, if not ever. Saban is not going to hold back 1st half, being an SEC game. Ark. does not have the QB play, as A&M had, to make the game close.

The Tide will have to score 4-6 times to cover this, and can't count on their kicker for much help. The special teams have been very good except for their K. I like the first 1H also because the 1st team D for Bama is excellent, but their depth is suspect and can relinquish points in garbage time.

sharky99 · Oct 4, 2018

Appreciate all your write ups hope it gets there for you Fred and the rest of the weekend treats you well

ofred · Oct 4, 2018

5* Syracuse -3(-115) Last week had Syracuse at 1.5 units, and even in the 1st quarter, had a great feeling about the game. That spread and this spread show no respect to how well Syracuse is playing. They have an underrated defense, especially on the DL, but got gassed at the end of the Clemson game. They dominated the FSU offense, giving up only 1 meaningless TD. That's the key to this game with Pitt. Pitt has struggled to block for their young QB, and their WRs are inexperienced. They have struggled to score against everyone except UNC…a game they lost while giving up almost 500 yards to a bad UNC offense.

There's the Pitt defense, which Dungey should shred. I know the so-called sharp play here is on Pitt after Syracuse had almost beat Clemson, and will not get up here for another road game. But I don't see it. Dino Babers has proven to be an excellent motivator, and he and his players are feeling pretty good about almost beating Clemson @Clemson, now that some time has passed. A loss to Pitt would be devastating, and this team has too many team leaders to let it happen. Remember, Syracuse has not underperformed, offensively, in any game this season. Overlooked is how well they run the ball and how well Dungey distributes the ball among his receivers and backs. Syracuse goes 5-1 here, and wins easily.

Kaboom · Oct 4, 2018

o fred said:
5* Syracuse -3(-115) Last week had Syracuse at 1.5 units, and even in the 1st quarter, had a great feeling about the game. That spread and this spread show no respect to how well Syracuse is playing. They have an underrated defense, especially on the DL, but got gassed at the end of the Clemson game. They dominated the FSU offense, giving up only 1 meaningless TD. That's the key to this game with Pitt. Pitt has struggled to block for their young QB, and their WRs are inexperienced. They have struggled to score against everyone except UNC…a game they lost while giving up almost 500 yards to a bad UNC offense.

There's the Pitt defense, which Dungey should shred. I know the so-called sharp play here is on Pitt after Syracuse had almost beat Clemson, and will not get up here for another road game. But I don't see it. Dino Babers has proven to be an excellent motivator, and he and his players are feeling pretty good about almost beating Clemson @Clemson, now that some time has passed. A loss to Pitt would be devastating, and this team has too many team leaders to let it happen. Remember, Syracuse has not underperformed, offensively, in any game this season. Overlooked is how well they run the ball and how well Dungey distributes the ball among his receivers and backs. Syracuse goes 5-1 here, and wins easily.

Agree ... GL bro ... nice write-up

indiana · Oct 4, 2018

Fred.......BOL with your action this week.......wet's do this, on both with you buddy.......indy

Huego · Oct 5, 2018

good luck Fred :103631605

Vituperate · Oct 5, 2018

Help! I'm just a sucker for great write-ups! Let's get em Fred.cheersgif

ofred · Oct 5, 2018

Got a lean on Ga. Tech tonight at -5. Have been abysmal on these weekday games, so keeping it small. But can't think of anything Louisville does well. They are coming off a crushing loss to FSU that was Petrino's fault. In fact, UL seems to get some decent talent, but they never seem to be coached to improve. UL's offense is in such a slump that GT has a chance here to get some stops. Tech will grind out long drives to wear down Louisville's D, but this line may not be covered until late in the game.

Also think the BYU/ Utah St. game stays under the number, but even less played on that.

ofred · Oct 5, 2018

1* ODU +13.5 Big part of this play is how subdued the FAU offense has been this year. Singletary looked like one of the best RBs in the country last season. This year, with a new QB, and a weaker OL, not so much. Lane Kiffin is a talented offensive mind, but perhaps too much credit is given to him, too much hype…and not enough attention paid to the talent and skills of his offensive players. They don't look the same by a long stretch from last year. ODU finally has a QB that can pass, and although the VT upset was an outlier, they have shown the last two weeks that they can put up the points(84). Their defense is fairly bad, but at least they have some DL talent and upperclassmen leadership there. FAU's offense is a step down from ECU and VT so I think they'll make this a game.

1* WSU -17 Will likely watch this game, or at least part of it. The Beavers are so thin on the defensive front 7, and lack coverage and tackling skills so much, that they will never be able to stop a reasonably good offense in the PAC 12. Arizona State's passing game was a bit off last week, and Manny Wilkins missed some open receivers, but no matter. ASU was gouging out 7-10 yard runs every play, and then break a big one. Wazzu doesn't run much, but they will this week. This will open up their passing game which has been perhaps better under Minshew this year, than Falk last year. One thing we will likely see is Minshew throwing one of his short passes that normally would get 4-8 yards, but due to the dreadful wrap-up tackling of the Beavers, will go for much more. I'd take this for more except it's possible Wazzu doesn't play their A game here, and the Beavers only asset is their running game, which could give them a few scores here. The Beav OL is pretty good at run blocking, not good at pass blocking. So whether Jake Luton returns at QB or not, is not likely to mean much. He is a pocket passer, and the Cougs are a deceptively good pass rushing team. They will line up 6 at the line, and disguise their blitzes well, while focusing on the Beaver RBs more.

ofred · Oct 5, 2018

1* Toledo -13 1H Toledo will likely have both their QBs available to play. Mitchell Guadagni left the Fresno game with a concussion 2 weeks ago, but looks ready to play(officially questionable). His backup almost won the starting job, and not sure vs. Bowling Green if it matters. Guadagni is the better dual threat. I have a real weakness for betting against terrible defenses. That and bad QB play are the most difficult thing for coaches to improve week to week, or during the season. Most of BG's offense has come in garbage time. They run the ball poorly, and their QB is mostly a dink and dunker. He has been sacked 17 times, with 6 ints. BG also lost their starting center to injury, and with recruiting being poor in recent years, quality depth is thin. Toledo will run the ball easily, and with a turnover or two from the BG offense, have a short field at least once 1H. Weather is likely cloudy with an isolated thunderstorm.

ofred · Oct 5, 2018

1* UMass +8 1H UMass goes against my strategy of playing opposite bad defenses, however… Umass is well-coached and last season they did remarkably well vs. much better competition. Almost beat Tenn, beat App. State, lost a close one to Temple, lost by 11 to Miss. St. as 33 pt. underdogs, and a couple other surprises. Their offense can score on almost anyone, and I think they'll come out fast and loose this week at home. Coach Mark Whipple suspended for a remark he made last week, but it was done defending his team. USF has been inconsistent offensively, and missing top 3 playmakers from last season due to graduation. They could drive the field 80 yards and get nothing or a FG, and it wouldn't surprise me.

Kaboom · Oct 5, 2018

o fred said:
1* UMass +8 1H UMass goes against my strategy of playing opposite bad defenses, however… Umass is well-coached and last season they did remarkably well vs. much better competition. Almost beat Tenn, beat App. State, lost a close one to Temple, lost by 11 to Miss. St. as 33 pt. underdogs, and a couple other surprises. Their offense can score on almost anyone, and I think they'll come out fast and loose this week at home. Coach Mark Whipple suspended for a remark he made last week, but it was done defending his team. USF has been inconsistent offensively, and missing top 3 playmakers from last season due to graduation. They could drive the field 80 yards and get nothing or a FG, and it wouldn't surprise me.

Coach is suspended for this game ...just a heads up bro ... probably won't matter ....

ofred · Oct 5, 2018

1* Texas A&M -5.5 Just have to lay some dough on this game. Kentucky deserves to be 5-0, winning at Florida and beating SC and MSU. I just think they are not so good they can't have a down game. Their QB is suspect, and I think we'll see a major D focus on stopping Benny Snell. Make Wilson pass. Kyle Field can be a tough place to play for the road team. Kellen Mond was mediocre vs. crummy Arkansas, but very impressive vs. Bama and Clemson. I think we'll see him and the A&M defense shine here. A&M gets up for the better teams. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Ky. with 3-4 losses by season's end.

ofred · Oct 6, 2018

I'm taking a fraction of a unit for GT tonight.

1* Buffalo -4.5 1H A dynamic offense vs. a severely non dynamic offense (CMU). Don't be fooled by CMU's close final score with MSU last week. They were down by 30 before they started scoring. Buffalo can run and pass for big gainers, while CMU runs at about 3 yards a clip, and has almost no downfield passing game. Buffalo has come out fast in many games this season.

Saints2016 · Oct 6, 2018

Good luck this week Fred!

TheShotDoctor · Oct 6, 2018

Card Looks Good FRED!

LOVE BAMA 1st H!

ALL THE BEST
---ShotDoc---

ofred · Oct 6, 2018

o fred said:
1* Texas A&M -5.5 Just have to lay some dough on this game. Kentucky deserves to be 5-0, winning at Florida and beating SC and MSU. I just think they are not so good they can't have a down game. Their QB is suspect, and I think we'll see a major D focus on stopping Benny Snell. Make Wilson pass. Kyle Field can be a tough place to play for the road team. Kellen Mond was mediocre vs. crummy Arkansas, but very impressive vs. Bama and Clemson. I think we'll see him and the A&M defense shine here. A&M gets up for the better teams. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Ky. with 3-4 losses by season's end.

Making this a 2*

indiana · Oct 6, 2018

Fred...….on it with you...….here's to a successful weekend buddy...…...indy

ofred · Oct 6, 2018

TheShotDoctor said:
Card Looks Good FRED!

LOVE BAMA 1st H!

ALL THE BEST
---ShotDoc---

Now at 24. GL to you too, and all posters.

ofred · Oct 6, 2018

indiana said:
Fred...….on it with you...….here's to a successful weekend buddy...…...indy

Indy, I think it's going to pay. Thanks for your encouragement all season.

Week 6: First Big Play

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