How much is a half point worth in baseball totals?

I was line shopping the Dodger game and wanting to bet the under. I could get 7 +105 or 7.5 -120.

I took the 7.5 -120 but thought this would be a good topic, plus I'm not sure. My gut says its worth more than 25 cents, maybe 30 cents. Anyone know?

Great question. I agree with you. In a situation like this is never let the odds get me on or off what
i like but I will let it dictate how much I bet.

the value of a 1/2 run is dependent upon the total. odd numbered totals
are worth more than even number totals due to the propensity of many
baseball games to end as a one run game (30%+). also odd number
totals are worth more than stated when the home team is more likely
to win (favored), while conversely even numbers increase in value with
a road team victory.

total 1/2 run worth

6 - 20 cents + but less than 25
7 - 25 cents + but less than 30
8 - close to 20 cents
9 - more than 20 cents but less than 25
10 - about 15 cents
11 - less than 20 cents but more 15
12 - probably a shade more than 10 cents

realize that 1/2 run is worth slight more when going below the number
for example a 6 1/2 as compared to the 7 might be worth close to or
more than 30 cents (depending whether home or road is favored) while
a 7 is worth around 25 cents compared to the 7 1/2.

the values also can change depending upon the teams, bullpen effectiveness,
and other factors. also if league wide scoring increases. the value of the
1/2 run decreases (opposite if league wide scoring decreases).
feel free to correct any mistakes I might of made. hope this helps.

niltes said:

the value of a 1/2 run is dependent upon the total. odd numbered totals
are worth more than even number totals due to the propensity of many
baseball games to end as a one run game (30%+). also odd number
totals are worth more than stated when the home team is more likely
to win (favored), while conversely even numbers increase in value with
a road team victory.

total 1/2 run worth

6 - 20 cents + but less than 25
7 - 25 cents + but less than 30
8 - close to 20 cents
9 - more than 20 cents but less than 25
10 - about 15 cents
11 - less than 20 cents but more 15
12 - probably a shade more than 10 cents

realize that 1/2 run is worth slight more when going below the number
for example a 6 1/2 as compared to the 7 might be worth close to or
more than 30 cents (depending whether home or road is favored) while
a 7 is worth around 25 cents compared to the 7 1/2.

the values also can change depending upon the teams, bullpen effectiveness,
and other factors. also if league wide scoring increases. the value of the
1/2 run decreases (opposite if league wide scoring decreases).
feel free to correct any mistakes I might of made. hope this helps.

Click to expand...

Helps a lot. The interesting thing I noticed is if league scoring goes up, I was just thinking about that earlier. If scoring is up then the half point is worth less.

I am curious as how this might effect other sports too. Like in the NFL with scoring maybe going up this season, how it might affect thing like teasers and buying points.

nice hit, and you could have taken the U7 too

Good thinking Reno, your thought processes are similar to a
professional better or linemaker. The key is noticing league wide
trends before the bookmakers start adjusting their lines thus
negating any value for the bettor. A good example of this was
found in the NFL many years ago. Many bookmakers used
to offer 2 team 6 point teasers with no vig and did quite well
taking that action. In those days a 6.5. -7 point favorite used
to be about -240 to a -260 on the moneyline (if memory serves me).
Well something changed. I don’t if the lines got better, if the
Favorites got more consistent, or whatever. The fact is that
the 6.5 to 7.5 point favorites started winning a higher % of games.
This created opportunity for those that picked up on this early.
First on underpriced moneyline favorites and later on the no vig
teasers. Teasing two 6.5 to 7.5 point favorites is essentially the
Same as a two team money line parlay. eventually the bookmakers
adjusted their vigs. The 7 point favorite now usually has a moneyline
price of -300 and the no vig 6 point teaser is extinct. But there were
some who capitalized on that league wide change. Keep your eyes
open and maybe you will spot the next opportunity.

Great info guys. Very good stuff. Thanks

I was thinking about this last night in the NFL as another game flies over the total easily (with me on the under of course).

Scoring so far is up from 21.7 per team per game to 24.2. 2016 and 2015 average was 22.8 per team per game.

So, with scoring up nearly 12% over last year and 6% over the 2 years before that, and overs hitting so far at between 54-55% of all games, it looks like the oddsmakers are only slightly behind the scoring.

That said, the question is, where does scoring go from here? Does it stay at 24 or regress to 21-22 as in prior years?