[h=2]The GOP dream for decades to come: How Kavanaugh could reshape abortion law, gay rights – and may even rule on whether Trump can be prosecuted when he replaces Scotus swing vote [/h]
Conservatives are on the verge of reaching a dream decades in the making of tilting the balance on the Supreme Court with the now expected confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh on Saturday. His angry defense against sex assault allegations bound Kavanaugh to Trump, although he has said he would act as an impartial 'umpire.' He could rule on whether a president can be prosecuted, or on any impeachment of Trump. Replacing swing vote Anthony Kennedy, he also will vote on Obamacare challenges and gay rights. Given his age, 53, Kavanaugh could get the opportunity to reshape American law for decades.
The GOP dream for decades to come: How Kavanaugh could reshape abortion law, gay rights – and may even rule on whether Trump can be prosecuted when he replaces Scotus swing vote
Kavanaugh gave senators assurances he would be an 'umpire' who recognized established precedent
He is also a favorite of the conservative Federalist Society, and opponents fear he will allow abortion restrictions
His writings on executive power drew scrutiny at confirmation – and he has argued that presidents should remain immune from prosecution while in office
During testimony he would not say he would recuse himself from cases on whether Trump can be prosecuted
His angry defense against sex assault allegations bound Kavanaugh to Trump, although he has said he would act as an impartial 'umpire'
Wouldn't tip his hand on Obamacare, but Democrats fear he will rule against it and chip away at abortion rights
Protestors are arrested by U.S. Capitol police for blocking the street in front of the U.S. Supreme Court while demonstrating against the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee judge Brett Kavanaugh on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., October 5, 2018. His expected confirmation Saturday will reshape the court
These are the areas where Kavanaugh will make his mark and could tilt the court to the right:
Executive Power
Kavanaugh, a judge on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit, in a 2009 Minnesota Law Review article on Separation of Powers, wrote that the indictment of a sitting president could 'cripple' the government and that the president should be immune from prosecution. He pushed back during his confirmation hearing, but the topic could soon have very real world applications. President Trump, who nominated him, considers himself at war with a 'witch hunt' Russia probe that has landed associates and campaign aides in jail or pleading guilty to charges.
Kavanaugh wrote that presidents should not be prosecuted or subject to civil lawsuits while in office. He wrote: 'The job of the President is far more difficult than any other civil position in government,' adding: 'I believe that it is vital that the President be able to focus on his never-ending tasks with as few distractions as possible.' Although he worked with Ken Starr on the report that featured in President Clinton's impeachment, Kavanaugh concluded in hindsight that the nation 'certainly would have been better off if President Clinton could have focused on Osama bin Laden without being distracted by the Paula Jones sexual harassment case.' Kavanaugh wrote in support of Congress passing legislation to protect a president from prosecution or investigation while in office. 'In particular, Congress might consider a law exempting a President—while in office—from criminal prosecution and investigation, including from questioning by criminal prosecutors or defense counsel,' he wrote.
Whatever his views on the Constitution, the bitter nature of his confirmation fight exposed Kavanaugh's deep resentment for forces he believes conspired against him – and by all accounts drew him closer to President Trump. Trump reportedly relished in the nominee's fiery defense, and then leaned into confirming Kavanaugh, even mocking his accuser Christine Blasey Ford at a campaign rally. Trump even cited his own history of being accused of misconduct by women, which he denies, as a reason he believed Kavanaugh.
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Kavanaugh's angry defense against sex assault allegations bound Kavanaugh to Trump, although he has said he would act as an impartial 'umpire'
It is unknown whether any kind of Foxhole mentality could bind Kavanaugh to Trump should he face an existential threat to his presidency, but Kavanaugh's own remarks before the Senate Judiciary brought up Democratic anger at Trump. 'This whole two-week effort has been a calculated and orchestrated political hit fueled with apparent pent-up anger about president trump and the 2016 election, fear that has been unfairly stoked about my judicial record,' Kavanaugh fumed. 'Revenge on behalf of the Clintons and millions of dollars in money from outside left-wing opposition groups. This is a circus. The consequences will extend long past my nomination. The consequences will be with us for decades. This grotesque, character assassination will dissuade confident and good people of all political persuasions from serving our country and as we all know in the political system of the early 2000s, what goes around comes around.'
Abortion is an emotional and top topic for any Supreme Court justice, and Kavanaugh's nomination was no exception. During his confirmation hearing, he described Roe v. Wade as an 'important precedent.' But his background suggests, and both supporters and critics anticipate, he would be open to further restrictions on such topics and timing or notification of abortions, or restrictions on doctors or providers.
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Kavanaugh, who advanced through the Senate on a narrow vote despite rape allegations, will get to rule on abortion rights
During his confirmation hearing, Kavanaugh faced scrutiny over a leaked memo where he appeared to question the argument that landmark Roe v. Wade ruling was widely considered 'settled law.' His comments are contained in a 2003 email chain where he was advising the Bush White House about the conservative nominee Priscilla Owen and providing comments on an op-ed. The article contained a blanket statement about the abortion rights decision that Kavanaugh, who faced his third day of grilling at a confirmation hearing Thursday, took exception to.
'I am not sure that all legal scholars refer to Roe as the settled law of the land at the Supreme Court level since Court can always overrule its precedent, and three current Justices on the Court would do so,' Kavanaugh wrote. But swing vote Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), who provided critical support for Kavanaugh Friday, said she was satisfied with his assurances given to her privately. And she noted that some Republican judges who made it to the court despite the GOP's platform position on abortion ended up sustaining abortion rights.
As the swing vote on the court, Kennedy provided the fifth vote to strike down bans on gay marriage in 2015, USA Today reported. Kennedy also wrote the opinions for rulings that enhanced gay rights. Kavanaugh hasn't issued a gay rights ruling, but has sight rights not spelled out in the Constitution can be recognized only when 'rooted in the nation's history and tradition.' Concern about how he might rule did not appear to concern Collins, who brought up the issue in her Senate floor speech. 'Kavanaugh described the Obergefell decision, which legalized same-gender marriages, as an important landmark precedent. He also cited Justice Kennedy's recent Masterpiece Cake Shop opinion for the Court's majority stating that, quote, 'the days of treating gay and lesbian americans or gay and lesbian couples as second-class citizens who are inferior in dignity and worth are over in the Supreme Court,' end quote,' she told colleagues.
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The White House is illuminated in rainbow colors after the historic Supreme Court ruling legalizing gay marriage in Washington June 26, 2015
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Concern about how Kavanaugh might rule on gay rights did not appear to concern Collins, who brought up the issue in her Senate floor speech
Chief Justice John Roberts infuriated some Republicans with a ruling that sustained much of Obamacare. During confirmation, Kavanaugh declined to say how he might rule on cases that might come before the court on health care, calling it 'nominee precedent.' Asked how he would rule on the law's ban on insurance companies denying care to those with preexisting conditions, he was coy. 'I can't give assurances on a specific hypothetical.' Trump made repealing Obamacare a top campaign issue and his failed rollback was a major fight in his first year in office. State attorneys general have sued to try to undue the law, and the Trump administration has sought to peel back its protections. He ruled for the Affordable Care Act in 2011, arguing that federal courts had jurisdiction, according to National Law Journal. When Clarence Thomas took a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court in 1991, he had only barely survived a series of bitter Senate hearings on allegations of sexual harassment that divided the country. But he said he was quickly welcomed by his eight fellow justices. 'After going through all those difficulties, the members of the court were just wonderful people to a person,' Thomas said in an appearance at the Library of Congress earlier this year. 'So the court itself is quite different from the ordeal. It´s almost the opposite of the ordeal it took to get there.' Brett Kavanaugh will be counting on those strong traditions of collegiality if, as expected, he is confirmed by the Senate as a Supreme Court justice this weekend. Kavanaugh's nomination hearings were rocked by university professor Christine Blasey Ford's allegations that he sexually assaulted her in 1982, when they were both high school students. Two other women also alleged sexual misconduct by the conservative Kavanaugh. The accusations as well as Kavanaugh's angry denials and fierce criticism of Senate Democrats widened the U.S. political divide just weeks before congressional elections and raised concerns about the court's reputation in U.S. society. Like Thomas in 1991, Kavanaugh will be joining a right-leaning court. He succeeds retired Justice Anthony Kennedy, who was often the decisive 5-4 swing vote on social issues, and consolidates conservative control of the nine-member Court. But the four liberal justices include 85-year-old feminist icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who made her name as an advocate for women´s rights. Ginsburg voiced support for the #MeToo movement against sexual misconduct even as Kavanaugh was about to face a grueling Senate hearing into the allegations against him, saying that unlike in her youth 'women nowadays are not silent about bad behavior.' Still, Supreme Court experts believe the justices are likely to move past any differences, as they have done in the past. 'I think the justices care very much about collegiality and not purely for the sake of collegiality. They think it's important for people who disagree with each other to work together,' said Carolyn Shapiro, who served as a law clerk for liberal Justice Stephen Breyer. The liberal justices - Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer, Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor - need to seek support from at least one conservative in ideologically divisive cases, so they have a strong incentive not to alienate the new arrival, court experts said. Kagan, known for her strategic nous, has an existing relationship with Kavanaugh. In her former role as dean of Harvard Law School, she hired Kavanaugh to teach there. 'She is practical enough that she is going to put that behind her and have the best relationship she can with someone she is going to have to put up with for 30 years,' said one Washington lawyer, who declined to be named because he argues cases at the court. 'The bigger question is Sotomayor and Ginsburg,' the lawyer added. Sotomayor has stressed the importance of collegiality, recounting at a 2016 event how the justices often eat together after oral arguments. 'There is no topic that´s off limits. But we try to avoid controversy, so we're very guarded about raising topics that we think might create hostility in the room,' she said.
Brett Kavanaugh WILL sit on the Supreme Court as swing senators Susan Collins and Joe Manchin say they will vote YES and confirm Trump's nominee in historic victory for POTUS
Senators Susan Collins and Joe Manchin said Friday that they will support Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh when lawmakers in the upper chamber of Congress make his fate official this weekend. Collins, a Maine Republican, decided not to cross the aisle and abandon President Trump's nominee. Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat, made the opposite decision and defected. The result gives the GOP an historic victory and renders the other remaining holdouts' decisions largely moot. 'I will vote to confirm Judge Kavanaugh,' Collins said on the Senate floor, adding: 'My fervent hope is that Brett Kavanaugh will work to lessen the divisions in the Supreme Court.' 'The president has broad discretion to consider a nominee's philosophy,' she said, blasting Democrats for 'over-the-top rhetoric and distortions' of Kavanaugh's professional record. Minutes later, Manchin removed all doubt that Kavanaugh will fill the high court seat vacated by the retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy. 'I have reservations about this vote,' he said in a statement, but 'based on all the information I have available to me, including the recently completed FBI report, I have found Judge Kavanaugh to be a qualified jurist who will follow the Constitution and determine cases based on the legal findings
, also suggests Kavanaugh will ultimately get the blessing of the Senate. BetDSI puts the odds he gets confirmed at "-500," compared to "+300" that he is denied the necessary votes.
