MistaFlava's College Football Week 7 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2018 MistaFlava's CFB Record: 22-9 ATS (+201.00 Units)

Had another huge week in College Football last week hitting my PLAY OF THE WEEK on Texas and finishing 6-1 (+89.00 Units) and now moving to 12-4 ATS in the last 16 weeks.


Good luck to everyone

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Thursday, October 11




Texas Tech Red Raiders +8.5 (10 Units)

It's hard for some to back a team like Texas Tech who allowed 42 points at home against West Virginia last week as a +3.5 point underdog but to be honest they didn't play as poorly as the final score and they were outyarded by only 26 yards in that game. In the three games leading up to that game last week the Red Raiders had outyarded their three opponents by 805 total yards. That's insane. The last time Texas Tech was here they won in overtime (2016) and aside from the 55 points loss here in 2014, they have always been competitive at TCU including wins in 2 of their last 3 trips (both in overtime). Texas Tech is averaging 46.0 points per game their last three games on 596.0 total yards of offense per game. Wow! TCU's defense doesn't seem to be what it used to be and they have allowed 28.3 points per game in their last three games and allowed 5.1 yards per play in those games. Texas Tech runs the ball 43 times per game in their last three and throw it 50.7 times per games. My issue with TCU's defense is takeaways (or lack thereof). The Horned Frogs have only 1 takeaway (fumble recovery) their last three games with 0 interceptions and only 6 sacks. This will benefit a Texas Tech team that have turned the ball over 6 times in their last three. Believe me they will continue to score points tonight even if their star QB can't play.

The Texas Christian Horned Frogs did not look good last weekend at home against Iowa State as a -11 point favorite and that's a bit concerning. They did play a lot better than the 17-14 final score would indicate but I didn't like what I saw in the Ohio State and Texas games. The good news for Texas Christian in this game is that Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman is DOUBTFUL with a collapsed lung. I'm making it clear right now even if Bowman is out I am still going with the Red Raiders. Their defense is allowing 6.7 yards per play their last three games and they have allowed a ton of yards in those games but TCU's offense has not been all that effective lately despite averaging 5.3 yards per play in their last three games. They run the ball 38.0 times per game and throw it 36.0 times per game in those games. In those games they average only 4.0 yards per carry and have turned the ball over 10 times in their last three games. WOW! I think Texas Tech has a good shot to keep this close for this reason alone and I will call for their defense to step up and make a few plays in this game that will turn the momentum when they need it the most.

In their last 5 trips to TCU, Texas Tech has lost by 7 (1994), lost by 9 (2006), won by 3 (2012), lost by 55 (2014) and won by 3 (2016). Texas Tech has a history of playing well on Thursday Nights where they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games played. I went back and looked at the last few times they allowed 40+ points in a game and they followed that game up by going 12-4 ATS in the last 16 where they allowed 40 or more in the previous game. TEXAS CHRISTIAN IS AWFUL AT HOME and have covered the spread in only 5 of their last 21 home games. They are also only 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a winning record on the season and they have dropped the spread in four straight conference games. I will guess that Bowman is out for Texas Tech but backup QB Jett Duffey actually played well against West Virginia in relief despite throwing 2 picks. As long as he can avoid the turnovers (remember TCU doesn't force any), the Red Raiders should fight things out with TCU. This should be a good game.

Trend of the Game: Texas Tech is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games after allowing 40+ points in their previous game.


Texas Tech 28, Texas Christian 27





more to come...

Good luck

Solid again as usual....thanks for the post and write ups. Good luck the rest of the weekend.

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Nice work, I enjoy reading your breakdowns

Boom!

Mr. Flava......solid, well done buddy...…...indy

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Friday, October 12



Utah Utes -13.5 (10 Units)

This is a steep line and the number keeps on climbing which means the public bets are going to be all over Arizona in this one. I love that. The Wildcats are coming off a big home win over Cal last weekend as a two point home underdog and they played USC close the weekend before that (again at home). What most don't know though is that Arizona was outyarded by 211 total yards against Cal and 120 total yards against USC so they got lucky. In their two road games this season the Wildcats won at Oregon State in by far their best game of 2018 and they got smoked by 27 points at Houston in Week 2 of the season. Arizona is averaging 562.5 yards per game on the road on 6.7 yards per play. High powered stuff. Having said that, Utah's defense at home is sublime. In two games this season they have allowed only 15.5 points per home game on only 194.0 total yards and 3.3 yards per play. Opponents? Washington and Weber (FCS). Opposing QB's have a QB Rating of only 74.8 in those games. Arizona runs the ball 50.5 times per road game for 296 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry but the Utes D-Line is allowing only 3.1 yards per carry at home. That means QB Khalil Tate, who has become a pocket passer in 2018, has to face a secondary that has allowed home opponents to complete 41.3% of their passes for only 3.7 yards per pass attempt. In their last four games the Utes secondary has 4 interceptions, 7 sacks and 2 fumble recoveries.

It's hard to trust this Utah team. Many have been burned by them in the past, including anyone who backed them at home a few weeks ago against Washington as a +4 home underdog where they lost 21-7. About that game. The Utes have been itching to play in Utah again to make amends for that loss and that doesn't bode well for Arizona. In their only other home game of 2018, Utah outyarded FCS opponent Weber by 526 total yards and they covered a -30.5 point home favorite spread. Utah is also coming off their biggest win of the season last weekend as they went to Stanford and clobbered the Cardinal 40-21 on their home turf. Could this be a letdown spot? Maybe but I don't think so. Not after the loss to Washington the last time out. The offense has been a question mark at times in 2018 but with a healthy QB Tyler Huntley against this secondary, I'm taking the huge points. Huntley has a QB Rating of 126.8 this season and so far on the road this season Arizona's opponent QB's have a QB Rating of 136.3. Utah runs the ball first and the Wildcats allow 4.1 yards per carry which is a problem against a Utah offense rushing for 183 yards per game in their last three on 4.5 yards per carry. In the air, Arizona is allowing their last three opponents to complete 71.0% of their passes for 7.0 yards per pass attempt their last three games. I think the Utes have a pretty big game offensively tonight.

Utah won this matchup last year in Arizona and they covered the -4.5 point road spread. They also beat the Wildcats by 13 at home in 2016 when the Wildcats had a much better team than they had in 2018. For those considering backing Arizona just remember that they are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games. That's awful. I looked at the stats from the last few years and the last five times Arizona allowed 450+ total yards of offense to an opponent they have gone 0-5 ATS in the following game. They allowed 476 total yards of offense to Cal last week despite winning. The final score and result was skewed in that one. Look around folks the line is dropping and moving all over the place in this one. Utah is tremendous against the run and Arizona LOVES to run the ball first. The Utes are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing in their previous game. I like a huge bounce back home game from the Utes tonight and there are good numbers available out there.

Trend of the Game: Utah is 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.


Utah 34, Arizona 13




more to come...

I do like Utah, but can you explain your first sentence? If the line is climbing that means the public is on Utah, not AZ. And I think it opened at 14, today anyhow

No public will jump on the points

HUSKER POWER said:

I do like Utah, but can you explain your first sentence? If the line is climbing that means the public is on Utah, not AZ. And I think it opened at 14, today anyhow

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Was at 15 about 10 minutes before I wrote this and down to 13.5 by the time I was done. What I meant is that as the number climbs, so do the bets on Arizona.

Great work flava

Great write-ups, as always. Thanks for the work!

Well done.
Appreciate the write ups, good insight.

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Saturday, October 13




Duke Blue Devils +2.5 (10 Units)

I've had quite a bit of success betting on the Blue Devils the last 2-3 seasons and you have to pick your spots with this group but this is another great opportunity to back them as a dog in a game I see them winning. Duke is coming off a pretty bad home loss to Virginia Tech at home last week as a -6.5 point home favorite. For the record, my PLAY OF THE WEEK last week was VT +6.5 in that game. As bad as the loss looked the Blue Devils were only outyarded by 86 total yards in that game. It was a great matchup for Bud Foster and his defense and some of us capitalized on it. Let's not forget that Duke is 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season with big wins at Northwestern and Baylor. Both as underdogs. Both as underdog of 2.5 points or less. Both times being outyarded by their opponent. Despite the misfire last week Duke is still averaging 36.3 points per game their last three games on 5.5 yards per play. Their running game is outstanding averaging 222.7 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry their last three games and that's a problem for Georgia Tech who have allowed 32.3 points per game their last three games and 4.4 yards per carry in those games. They have also allowed 7.6 yards per pass attempt in those games and face a Duke offense that just doesn't turn the ball over much (1 fumble and 1 interception in their last three games). Duke is also a very disciplined team at 3.7 penalties per game their last three games and I see them having some big time success running the ball down Georgia Tech's throats in this one.

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are a Jekyll and Hyde type of a team and much like Duke you have to know when to back them and when to fade them. They are coming off a monster 66-31 win at Louisville last week, another one of my winning picks, but the story that is not told in that game is that they managed to outyard Louisville by only 71 total yards in that one. So far in 2018 their home opponents have been Alcorn State, Clemson (got crushed) and Bowling Green. This is easily their biggest test after the Tigers. So we all know how things go with Georgia Tech. If they can run the ball they will roll. If they can't run the ball then they have a big problem. Well coming into this game Duke ranks #29 defensively in the Country against the run and have allowed only 115.7 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry which means the Jackets will have to throw the ball to keep up in this one. That's not a good thing. Georgia Tech has a grand total of 17 pass attempts total in their last three games and have completed only 9 of them for 76.3 passing yards per game. OUCH! This is a really tough matchup for this offense if they can't get the run going early or if they go down early. Duke is more than capable of running the ball themselves and controlling the ground game which would force Georgia Tech to play from behind and throw the ball. They're not used to that.

Duke was winning late in the 4th quarter here in 2016 but allowed a late touchdown and lost by 3 points. They got revenge last year at home beating Georgia Tech 43-20 at home. They also beat Georgia Tech in 2014 and 2015 and come into this game on a 4-0 ATS run against the Jackets. I talked about the Blue Devils on the road this season and how they beat Northwestern and Baylor and dating back to 2017 they have now covered four straight on the road. Duke allowed 413 passing yards to VT last week and they are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games following a game where they allowed 280+ passing yards in the previous game. Georgia Tech was a mess defensively against Louisville last week allowing 483 total yards which was masked by the 66 points they scored. Looking back at the last few times Georgia Tech allowed 450+ yards in a game they went 1-4 ATS in their next game. Duke has won 3 of the last 4 in this series, covered all four games and have one of their best run defenses in years which is going to be a problem for Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils win this and continue to own the Yellow Jackets in recent years.

Trend of the Game: Duke is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games after allowing 280+ passing yards in their previous game.


Duke 30, Georgia Tech 22





more to come...

As always, Great analysis and thank you for the picks! Killing it!

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Iowa Hawkeyes -4 (10 Units)

Not the biggest play on my board but one that I woke up thinking about this morning as one that I would like some action on. These two Big Ten opponents don't play often but Iowa has won 3 of their last 4 played here and their 4-1 SU and ATS record so far in 2018 is a very good indication of how they have played. The Hawkeyes have outyarded 4 of their 5 opponents this season and the only one they didn't outyard was Wisconsin (11 total yards) in a game they probably should have won by lost 28-17. Indiana struggles defensively and Iowa comes in averaging 34.3 points per game in their last three on 6.4 yards per play. The Hoosiers defense is allowing 33.7 points per game in their last three on 5.8 yards per play, including 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Big problem for Indiana here.

The Indiana Hoosiers are off to a surprising 4-2 SU start to the season but their wins came against Rutgers, Ball State, Virginia and Florida International (1-3 ATS in those games). The Indiana offense played well enough to score 27 points in Columbus last week but the Buckeyes still outyarded them by 203 yards and should have won that game by a lot more. The offense, despite the 27 points last week against a top opponent, is averaging only 5.0 yards per play in their last three games. Now they go up against one of the best D-Lines in the Country who allow only 3.1 rushing yards per carry their last three and who come in with 9 sacks, 5 interceptions and 1 fumble recover their last three games. Indiana has allowed 9 sacks, thrown 3 interceptions and lost 3 fumbles in their last three games. Need I say more?

Like I said before, Iowa have won 3 of the last 4 meetings here in Indiana and that dates all the way back to 2008. Dating back to last season Iowa comes into this game on a 6-1 ATS run and have covered the spread in 20 of their last 29 road games. Indiana on the other hand are not a good spread team and they have not been for years. They come into this game having COVERED ONLY 3 OF THEIR LAST 15 GAMES OVERALL dating back to last season and have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 16 Big Ten Conference games. They are 0-6 ATS coming off a straight up loss the game before and have covered the spread in 3 of their last 11 home games. The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and I am going with Iowa to pound the Hoosiers and move to 5-1 (spread and straight up).

Trend of the Game: Iowa has covered the spread in 20 of their last 29 road games.


Iowa 34, Indiana 16




more to come...

GL today Mista

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Penn State Nittany Lions -13 (10 Units)

The Michigan State Spartans are not a bad football team but they do have the misfortune of running into a very good Penn State team who have been sitting on a bad home loss for two weeks with no opponent to take it out on. Sparty are coming off a 10 point home loss to Northwestern last weekend as a -10.5 point favorite. I'm having trouble seeing how Michigan State is going to move the ball. They average only 5.3 yards per play their last three games and their offensive line is struggling. They've allowed 7 QB sacks in their last three games (also threw 4 interceptions) and have to face a Penn State defensive line that has allowed only 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games (39.7 attempts against per game) and who's secondary has 3 picks and D-Line has 9 sacks in those games. Small yardage is possible but big chunk plays I don't think so. Unless the Spartans take a huge lead early they will struggle big time.

One blunder on their schedule and it was Ohio State in Week 5. The Nittany Lions had that game, they should have won, they outyarded the Buckeyes by 103 total yards in the game and now they've had two weeks to sit on it and get hungry to hit the field again. That's really unfortunate for Michigan State. So far this season the only bad game Penn State played was their season opening overtime win over Appalachian State (my most underrated team in the Nation) but since then they have outyarded their next four opponents by a total of 795 yards in their next four games. THE OFFENSE IS AVERAGING 8.0 YARDS PER PLAY THEIR LAST THREE GAMES (has to be highest in the Nation during that time span) and scoring 50.7 points per game. Michigan State's D-Line is tremendous (1.4 yards per carry in last three) but their secondary is allowing 64.8% of passes to be completed last three games and their last three QB opponents have a QB Rating of 127.8. Penn State is going to feast on turnovers and scores in this one.

Michigan State somewhat owned this series for a long time but times have changed and the last time they played in this place Penn State won 45-12 as an 11 point home favorite. Michigan State did get their revenge last season with a home win over the Nitts as a 9.5 point underdog but that was the most yards allowed by Penn State in this matchup in more than three decades. It won't happen again. The Spartans are not a good road team (covered only 3 of their last 11 on the road) and if they can't run the ball they are done with (5-12 ATS following a game where they had less than 100 rushing yards, I checked this). Penn State is an October team under James Franklin going 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight October games. They are 13-2-2 ATS in their last 17 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and HAVE GONE 21-5-2 ATS IN THEIR LAST 28 GAMES OVERALL (including 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 home games). The Favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings of this series and having sat on the Ohio State loss for two weeks now, I expect Penn State to come out guns blazing and destroy Michigan State.

Trend of the Game: Penn State is 21-5-2 ATS in their last 28 games overall.


Penn State 38, Michigan State 14




more to come...

Hache Man said:

GL today Mista

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Thanks Hache Man you too brother!