MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 6 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2018 MistaFlava NFL Record: 10-10 ATS (+32.00 Units)

I have yet to get things going in the NFL this season but October is usually when I start to making things happen. Had a 6-1 ATS day in college last week and now 12-4 ATS in the last 16 college football wagers. It's time to get things going in the NFL now with some plays all day.

Good luck to everyone this week!

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Thursday, October 11




New York Giants +1 (10 Units)

The Philadelphia Eagles are not the same as they were in 2017. Something is way off and I don't really know what it is right now. Adding to their current so called misery is the fact that RB Jay Ajayi is now out for the season and the Eagles don't have a suitable replacement. The Eagles have looked horrible their last four games and come into this game on an 0-4 ATS streak. They lost games in Tampa Bay and Tennessee, they barely beat the Colts at home and they lost to Minnesota at home last week. Their best game was their win over the Colts a few weeks ago where they outyarded Indianapolis by 170 total yards but somehow still only won by 4 points. Things won't get any better tonight in New York. First and foremost the Eagles average 8.7 Penalties per game for 79.7 penalty yards per game their last three games. QB Carson Wentz has a QB Rating of only 96.5 in those three games and it won't be any easier tonight against a Giants defense that has allowed a QB Rating of only 83.1 to their last three opponents. Wentz has been sacked a whopping 12 times in those games. Yes 12 times! The Giants do allow big plays but they also make big plays and I see them making some big plays against this reeling offense tonight.

The New York Giants you feel are on the verge of playing so much better than their results have shown lately. They played really well in their 33-31 loss in Carolina last week and had it not been for an out of this world 63 yard field goal by Graham Gano to win it, the Giants would be 2-3 instead of 1-4. They also played well in their season opener against Jackonsville at home and should have probably won that game. They've been close. Their offense is a lot more effective than the Eagles offense over the last three games (6.7 yards per play compared to Philadelphia's 6.0 yards per play) and they should have a ton of success throwing the ball tonight as QB Eli Manning has a QB Rating of 108.8 in his last three games. He has completed 73.8% of his passes in those games on 8.2 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles secondary has allowed their last three opponents to complete a whopping 70.2% of their passes the last three games and they have not been making big plays (1 fumble recovery and 1 interception) during that time span. The Giants have the advantage in 3rd downs (40.0% in their last three games to the Eagles 34.2%) and in Red Zone touchdowns (66.7% in their last three games to the Eagles 38.5%). I say it's all Giants tonight.

The Eagles won both meetings in 2017 so the odds of that happening again in 2018 are slim to none. As a matter of fact they have won 7 of the last 8 meetings but tonight will be different. The Giants come into this one 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Thursday Night (Eagles are also good at 4-1 ATS in their last five) and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after scoring 30+ points in their previous game. This offense is rolling right now. The Eagles are NOT playing good football right now and I feel the Giants are playing a lot better than their record says. Giants for me.

Trend of the Game: The New York Giants are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Thursday Night Games.


NY Giants 19, Philadelphia 10






more to come...

Man the struggle is real in the NFL this year but it's time to turn things around this week despite the rough start. Had another monster day in college football yesterday going 7-3 ATS (+77.00 Units) and now 19-7 ATS in last three weeks there. Time get things going in the big leagues. Here is my first play today:


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Indianapolis Colts +2.5 (10 Units)

In the eyes of many this is taking a huge chance because the Colts, despite having played well in some games this season, just don't seem to know how to win football games and that explains their 1-4 SU record on the season. Having said that the only bad game the Colts played so far this season was their 20-16 road loss to the Eagles, a game where they were outyarded by 170 yards but still found a way to cover the +6.5 road dog line. Believe it or not they outyarded the Patriots and Texans in losses (should have tied and covered the Houston game) the last two weeks and they also outyarded Cincinnati in their season opener. This will be a battle of the more consistent QB and I will take Andre Luck who has a QB Rating of 90.4 in his last three games (Sam Darnold has a QB Rating of 66.9 in his last three games) and the Jets defense has allowed 22.7 points per game in their last three on 420.7 total yards per game and 6.0 yards per play. The Jets secondary has been torched for 303.7 passing yards per game in their last three and opponents have completed 67.5% of their passes for 7.2 yards per pass attempt. Even without TY Hilton, Luck will make some plays in this one.

I know a lot of people will back the Jets in this game but why? Remove everyone from both rosters for a second and tell me this is not about Andrew Luck and Sam Darnold. The Jets come into the game off a huge home win over Denver last week in what was easily their best game of the season but can they keep that up? I don't see it. In their only other home game of 2018, the Jets managed to outyard the Dolphins by 105 yards back in Week 2 of the season but they still lost 20-12 in that game. The Colts defense is not good but they are pretty decent against the run and the Jets run the ball a lot (27.3 times per game their last three games). The Colts D-Line has allowed only 122.7 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry their last three games which will force Darnold to throw a lot more than he usually does and that's not a good thing. The rookie QB has been horrendous (aside from two lucky bombs to WR Robbie Anderson last week) the last three weeks with a QB Rating of 66.9. In those games he has completed 48.3% of his passes for only 164.7 passing yards per game and 5.7 yards per pass attempt. The Colts will come after him. They have 12 sacks in their last three games to go along with 4 interceptions and 4 forced fumbles. Darnold is in trouble.

The last time Indianapolis was here was back in December 2016 when Andrew Luck threw for 278 yards with 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in a huge 41-10 win over the Jets. This is a crazy stat but hear me out. The Colts are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games versus a team that is .500 or worse at home on the season (Jets are 1-1 so far). The Colts have also covered the spread in 30 of their last 42 games overall versus a team with a losing record on the season. WOW! They have also covered 35 of their last 52 games coming off a straight up loss. The Jets have a very solid home record (ATS wise) dating back to last season but I had to go back and look at the last few times they scored 30+ points to see how they did the next time out and...they went 0-5 ATS in their game that followed. They are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games after rushing for 150+ yards (they rushed for 323 versus Denver) in their previous game. The Underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and I think the Colts finally get it together in this one.

Trend of the Game: Indianapolis has covered the spread in 30 of their last 42 games versus a team with a losing record. That's a 71% clip!


Indianapolis 19, NY Jets 13




more to come..

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Chicago-Miami 'UNDER' 41.5 (10 Units)

Since my play is on the UNDER in this one I am going to talk mostly about the defenses and what they have done so far this season and in the last few games. The Bears added Khalil Mack right before the season and it pretty much changed the landscape of everything they do on both sides of the ball. They are ranked #1 in the NFL in run defense, they are ranked #2 overall in the NFL in Total Yards allowed per game defense, they are ranked #2 in the NFL in points allowed per game defense and they are ranked #8 in the NFL against the pass defense. The points they score is because of their defense. The Bears offense is ranked #25 in total yards in the NFL this season. The Dolphins are averaging only 17.3 points per game in their last three games on only 280.7 total yards of offense per game in those games. They are running for only 75.0 rushing yards per gamea and the offensive line is going to struggle against a Bears defense that has 14 sacks in their last three games (most in the NFL during that span). Miami is converting only 28.1% of their third down chances the last three weeks and I just don't see how they are doing to score points in this one.

On the flip side of things now, Miami's defense has actually not been that good and don't rank in the TOP 15 defensively in any single defensive NFL category this season but like I said before, the Bears passing game and the Bears total yards per game is in the bottom tier of the NFL. So far in two home games this season the Dolphins have allowed only 20 points in each game. Their strength has been their Red Zone defense where their two opponents (Raiders and Titans) managed to score touchdowns only 42.9% of the time in the Red Zone. So far in 2018 the Bears are scoring touchdowns in only 28.6% of their Red Zone trips which should turn this into a battle of field goals. Also take into consideration the fact that despite allowing 272.5 passing yards per home game this season, the Dolphins have 5 interceptions in those two home games while the Bears have turned the ball over 3 times in two road games. The Bears should win but I think their offense struggles today against a defense that doesn't allow too many big chunk plays at home.

Looking at previous meetings is useless because these two teams are in different conferences and barely play each other but in the last four games played in Miami, the total score has only gone over 41.5 on one occasion and that was in 1997. The other meetings saw 31, 36 and 16 points scored. Take a look back at Dolphins games and you'll see that the UNDER is 4-0 in their last four games versus a team with a winning record on the season. The UNDER is also 10-2 in Chicago's last 12 games following a game where they allowed 250+ passing yards the previous game (Tampa Bay had 251 passing yards) and the UNDER is actually 8-2 in their last 10 games overall dating back to last season. Also went back and looked at the last few times the Bears won big and the UNDER hit 4-0 in games after the Bears won by 14+ points and the UNDER is 6-1 in Chicago's last seven road games. Chicago will have trouble moving the ball in the humidity and this Miami offense will be a disaster against arguably the best defense in the NFL.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 10-2 in Chicago's last 12 games after allowing 250+ passing yards in their previous game.


Chicago 24, Miami 10




more to come...

I got the opposite of you. Killing it in NFL and just under 50% in college. Like the write -ups GL

Bol flava

GL today

Just brutal, 0-3 on the week, can't seem to get it together in the pros. Going to use similar approach as I use for College Football and put a few units on the afternoon games:



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Jacksonville Jaguars -3 (10 Units)

Tennessee Titans +2.5 (10 Units)





more to come...