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Thread: Advice Needed: To Middle or Not?

  1. #1 Advice Needed: To Middle or Not? 
    RX Member
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    I'm getting a lot of value on several games betting early.

    Example:
    Dog +7, Now Pick Em
    Favorite -5, Now -11.5

    My question is, at what point do you middle? Long term, is it more profitable to just take your original number or to middle?

    Note: My original wagers are roughly 1/2 a unit.

    Thanks for your advice.
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  2. #2  
    RX Senior
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    not having any long term numbers on middling i would do it. thats a lot of movement and could provide some value across some key numbers for both.
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  3. #3  
    schmuck
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    in theory it is not more mathematically profitable to middle. the exception
    would be if the buyback number went to far beyond the rest of the market
    or involved a key number; thus giving the buyback number positive EV on
    its own. another factor, which doesn't seem to apply to you, is when
    you have too large of a position based upon your standard play or you bankroll.
    then you should middle to minimize fluctuations. I have known some very successful
    gamblers who would NEVER middle (and stick with the original play),
    others who hated fluctuations who ALWAYS middled everything, and some who
    did some of each. their decisions were based upon their gambling styles
    and risk tolerance. congrats on getting good numbers, that's a major victory
    in itself.
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  4. #4  
    RX Local slapshot's Avatar
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    Teams matter
    GO LEAFS GO
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  5. #5  
    Rx. Senior TomGshotput's Avatar
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    The most profit comes from looking at each bet independently. Would the +11.5 be a good bet even if you didn't have -5?
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  6. #6  
    EV Whore HarryCaray's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapshot View Post
    Teams matter
    So do totals
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  7. #7  
    EV Whore HarryCaray's Avatar
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    You're telling me you are beating the closing line by 7 points often enough for this to be a question?
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  8. #8  
    RX Senior
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac View Post
    I'm getting a lot of value on several games betting early.

    Example:
    Dog +7, Now Pick Em
    Favorite -5, Now -11.5

    My question is, at what point do you middle? Long term, is it more profitable to just take your original number or to middle?

    Note: My original wagers are roughly 1/2 a unit.

    Thanks for your advice.
    Hmmm which games had lines that moved this much?
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