Advice Needed: To Middle or Not?

Mac · Oct 13, 2018

I'm getting a lot of value on several games betting early.

Example:
Dog +7, Now Pick Em
Favorite -5, Now -11.5

My question is, at what point do you middle? Long term, is it more profitable to just take your original number or to middle?

Note: My original wagers are roughly 1/2 a unit.

Thanks for your advice.

skins85 · Oct 13, 2018

not having any long term numbers on middling i would do it. thats a lot of movement and could provide some value across some key numbers for both.

niltes · Oct 13, 2018

in theory it is not more mathematically profitable to middle. the exception
would be if the buyback number went to far beyond the rest of the market
or involved a key number; thus giving the buyback number positive EV on
its own. another factor, which doesn't seem to apply to you, is when
you have too large of a position based upon your standard play or you bankroll.
then you should middle to minimize fluctuations. I have known some very successful
gamblers who would NEVER middle (and stick with the original play),
others who hated fluctuations who ALWAYS middled everything, and some who
did some of each. their decisions were based upon their gambling styles
and risk tolerance. congrats on getting good numbers, that's a major victory
in itself.

slapshot · Oct 13, 2018

Teams matter

TomGshotput · Oct 13, 2018

The most profit comes from looking at each bet independently. Would the +11.5 be a good bet even if you didn't have -5?

HarryCaray · Oct 13, 2018

slapshot said:
Teams matter

So do totals

HarryCaray · Oct 13, 2018

You're telling me you are beating the closing line by 7 points often enough for this to be a question?

terps1313 · Oct 13, 2018

Mac said:
I'm getting a lot of value on several games betting early.

Example:
Dog +7, Now Pick Em
Favorite -5, Now -11.5

My question is, at what point do you middle? Long term, is it more profitable to just take your original number or to middle?

Note: My original wagers are roughly 1/2 a unit.

Thanks for your advice.