Forum: Baseball Forum - Post your picks or discuss anything related to betting MLB here.

Thread: BIG's Playoffs

  1. #1 BIG's Playoffs 
    RX Senior bradyisgod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,581
    I mainly cap NFL but I'm going to post a few plays here that I feel confident about:

    Stros ML -102 (+3 units)

    Just a friendly warning: I'm from Houston and live here so this may seem totally biased. But what I will say is that I don't just bet teams from my home town just to bet them. I routinely stay far away from the Texans, hence the RX name, so I bet when I have followed a team close enough to feel good about posting up a play. I ML'd the Astros last year all the way through the playoffs, didn't post the plays because I wasn't sure if I would win and my confidence in my first baseball season was low - so didn't want someone tailing me. Believe it or not, oh well. The strategy for me was to ML Verlander's games hard and go medium on our other pitchers. This year I'm staying away from Keuchel and I'll have big ML bets on Verlander/Cole.

    Key points for me:

    - Top 3 road team. Set franchise record this year for road wins. We play really good at Fenway Park. See last year, this year. Home field advantage for the Red Sox will be mitigated.

    - Best starting pitching by far. I'll take Verlander over Sale in the post season any day of the week, we absolutely own Sales ass at Fenway. Also he's coming off an injury which helps. Clutch pitching goes to the Astros here.

    - Comparable, but slightly worse line-up. We hit .255 as a team this year compared to Boston's .268, with injuries to Carlos Correa (out half the year), Altuve who was out 1/4th of the year and also to Springer who was out for a stretch as well. Astros hit more home runs still, and had a comparable slugging percentage in a much harder division see next point. Another main take away is that the Astros were in arguably the toughest division in baseball, top 2 at least with Athletics, Mariners and Angels who were no slouch until Otahni bit the dust. Compare that to the Sox who faced one of the worst teams in the last 50 years 15 times or more, I'm talking about the 47-115 Orioles. This is another reason for the record/stat inflation.

    I can't give clutch hitting to the Red Sox because they got 3-1'd in this same situation last year. If any of the bats have been "clutch", it was the Astros of the 2017 season. We didn't lose anyone from last year either, same line-up, except Bregman is playing like an MVP caliber player and we have guys at the bottom of our line-up stepping up big (Marwin Gonzalez is 7 for 13 right now in the post season).

    Clutch hitting advantage Astros. Deeper line-up, Boston.

    - Red Sox were able to tee off on all of the Yankee's pitchers, especially the back-end, but Severino hasn't done anything in the post season and he's only been in the league 4 years - pitched the post season for only 2. Post Season is a different atmosphere/game than pitching against non-elite teams most of the year. Severino recorded only one post season win in 4 games with a ~4.5 ERA before Boston lit him up. I wouldn't call that elite post season pitching.

    The Astros are a dog today with Verlander on the mound against a banged up Sales which is baffling to me (people really love their home field don't they). The team is fully healthy finally at the perfect time minus Correa's back seems to still be sore, but he's playing and should be ready to go. Home field definitely has an advantage but I think it's mitigated when it's against a team that plays well on the road in the first place.

    Second most important point, much better bullpen: People still remember the Astros bullpen being nearly dead last from last year. We went from nearly worst to first this year - in the entire league. We got much, much, better there by trading Ken Giles our main closer for Osuna (former All-Star). Our middle relief set-up pitchers would be #1 or #2 starting pitchers on most other teams (Morton, McCullers, and McHugh has been great in the bull pen posting the leagues lowest relief ERA through most of the year).

    Summary: Give me Astros Verlander vs. Sale, any field and any situation, any day of the week. Add the leagues first ranked bull pen onto that. Also for tomorrow, give me a young hungry Gerrit Cole, mini Verlander, against Price any day of the week. Price has made nine career starts in the postseason. He has eight losses, one no-decision, and precisely zero victories. No thanks.

    So the strategy for me is to just ML Verlander and Cole and probably put pizza money on Keuchel.

    I also just want to say good luck to the Red Sox fans/backers. We don't take them lightly here in Houston and everyone here knows they are one of the best teams we've ever faced. This series is by no means a slam dunk Astros bet, just a play/lean on the other games based on what I've seen. Any result wouldn't surprise me given how good both of these teams are so tread lightly on my plays if you decide to follow. Go with your gut and enjoy what should be a great series - game 7 anyone?
    2018-2019 NFL: -10 units 2016-2017 NFL: +17.5 units
    Reply With Quote  
     

  2. #2  
    RX Senior bradyisgod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,581
    If a mod could adjust my first post couldn't edit it. I'm on this for +2 units or $500. A unit for me is about ~$250. Here's my bet slip.

    2018-2019 NFL: -10 units 2016-2017 NFL: +17.5 units
    Reply With Quote  
     

  3. #3  
    We see the light PeePee's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    H-Town
    Posts
    2,188
    GL bud... Stros kick ass
    Reply With Quote  
     

  4. #4  
    RX Senior bradyisgod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,581
    boom lets fucking go!
    2018-2019 NFL: -10 units 2016-2017 NFL: +17.5 units
    Reply With Quote  
     

  5. #5  
    RX Senior bradyisgod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,581
    Stros ML -134 (+2 units)

    Feel better about this one than I did yesterday with Price being 0-10 in the post season. Gerrit Cole is 2-2. Astros are really good on the road, home field adv. mitigated. Same points as my first post.

    I think the Sox best chance is getting something going when Keuchel pitches in game 3. Good luck today guys!
    2018-2019 NFL: -10 units 2016-2017 NFL: +17.5 units
    Reply With Quote  
     

  6. #6  
    RX Senior bradyisgod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,581
    Stros ML -125 (+1 unit)

    Don't feel nearly as confident with Keuchel on the mound. Let's fuckin go!
    2018-2019 NFL: -10 units 2016-2017 NFL: +17.5 units
    Reply With Quote  
     

  7. #7  
    RX Local varkeyboy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    36,439
    Good luck!!
    Reply With Quote  
     

  8. #8  
    RX Senior bradyisgod's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Houston
    Posts
    1,581
    Good game red sox. They were the better team tonight. I still expect a close series. 7 games! Hope you guys cashed!
    2018-2019 NFL: -10 units 2016-2017 NFL: +17.5 units
    Reply With Quote  
     

Posting Permissions
  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •