Moneyline Profit Shopping Question

mixbag0054 · Oct 15, 2018

[FONT=&quot]Vegas odds shows the moneyline consensus of Vegas sportsbooks.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]If one had the option to shop for the best moneyline price and consistently beat the Vegas moneyline consensus would this be a winning strategy or just a slower way of losing a bankroll?[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]example: Vegas consensus moneyline Florida -450 ABC offshore book -370... so take FL -370.

This has nothing to do with handicapping... your just always taking a moneyline that is much lower than the Vegas consensus

[/FONT]

HacheMan · Oct 15, 2018

Welcome aboard.

Others will chime in soon....

mixbag0054 · Oct 15, 2018

Hache Man said:
Welcome aboard.

Others will chime in soon....

thank ya

RenoChazz · Oct 15, 2018

Big money lines are loaded with vig, so much harder to win at. If you are getting 30 cents off a number like -180 or less you night be on to some thing

mixbag0054 · Oct 15, 2018

Hey Reno

Vig? why are big money lines harder to win at?

thx

RenoChazz · Oct 15, 2018

For example the 49ers game is GB -475 49ers +380 475-380 gives 90 cents of lee way for the books to be wrong or right on the number. These bigger numbers aren't as sharp so you could win in theory, but it's hard to do. When a line is -120 vs even money you only have 20 cents to beat, these lines are sharper but if you beat it by 30 cents you are winning, no ifs about it.

TomGshotput · Oct 15, 2018

RenoChazz said:
For example the 49ers game is GB -475 49ers +380 475-380 gives 90 cents of lee way for the books to be wrong or right on the number. These bigger numbers aren't as sharp so you could win in theory, but it's hard to do. When a line is -120 vs even money you only have 20 cents to beat, these lines are sharper but if you beat it by 30 cents you are winning, no ifs about it.

On -475 favorites, you have to win 82.61% of the time to break even. On +380 underdogs, you have to win 20.83% of the time to break even. On -110 bets, you have to win 52.38% of the time to break even. 82.61 + 20.83 is less than 52.38 + 52.28, and therefore lower vig

niltes · Oct 15, 2018

matchbook mainly and pinnacle somewhat less, consistently had the lowest favorite money
lines. the agent, who catered mainly to sharps and shoppers, said he did nothing but
send money to matchbook. much of this was due to his sheet betting money lines among
other things.

mixbag0054 · Oct 15, 2018

niltes said:
matchbook mainly and pinnacle somewhat less, consistently had the lowest favorite money
lines. the agent, who catered mainly to sharps and shoppers, said he did nothing but
send money to matchbook. much of this was due to his sheet betting money lines among
other things.

so your saying the books made a lot of money of these guys who bet money lines?

also thx all

Hotpizza · Oct 16, 2018

It's a quick way to the poor house.

Think about this you play -200 favorites. Not a super big # but you have to win 2 out of 3 to break even.

The winning % gets higher as the -xxx gets higher as well. There is no sure thing and while I understand what you are looking it, you really shouldn't compare that way. It's not comparing apples with apples at all.

PoundFoolish · Oct 16, 2018

I don't see where the original poster said only on big money line favorites.

mixbag0054 · Oct 16, 2018

So generally speaking the higher the money line the worse your odds get?

patswin · Oct 16, 2018

Good luck finding lines that are that far off market. You may find them once in a while but not consistently.

mixbag0054 · Oct 16, 2018

patswin said:
Good luck finding lines that are that far off market. You may find them once in a while but not consistently.

so far every Saturday I have found at least 5 or 6 per day in college football. you have to have accounts at a bunch of books however to get this lowest ML

PoundFoolish · Oct 16, 2018

mixbag0054 said:
so far every Saturday I have found at least 5 or 6 per day in college football. you have to have accounts at a bunch of books however to get this lowest ML

how much of a difference?

mixbag0054 · Oct 16, 2018

PoundFoolish said:
how much of a difference?

for example last night I got GB at -380... I believe the moneyline consensus was 420

not sure on the Saturday and Sunday bets because the moneyline consensus is no longer available ( I would guess they were all between 40 to 100 points off depending on how high the spread is)... I attached a screen shot of the bets i made... Auburn burned me haha but still came out slightly ahead

mixbag0054 · Oct 16, 2018

can't figure out how to attach a screen shot but here are the bets made...

GB -380
Vikings -450

UAB -700
Auburn -620
Army -640
Buffalo -400
Houston -650
Fresno State -900 (i beleive this was -1100 at most vegas books)
BYU -420
Utah -525

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