**G-Mans! ** Public Perception On A Few Teams ****************

Hello all.

Thought I would post some perception on a few tams this season so far.

Over rated teams are usually obvious if you look closer at defenses. Its important to pay attention to scores as the season goes and try to stay away from "average scoring" allowed numbers - and moreso, use the latest bunch of the last 3 games played.

First example. KC.

They are the worst defensive team in the NFL with a winning record, allowing a whopping 172 points. Only the lowly Oakland Raiders have allowed more and they have 1 win.

They (KC) have scored a lot on offense which has them at 5-1, but all 6 games were against weak teams withs soft defenses as well, except for Jville which has allowed more points than they(jags) have scored. New England has a soft defense as well in case you didn't know it, But should improve as injured starters return.

Another IMPORTANT fact is that in EVERY game, KC was out gained in total yardage! That is astounding considering that they have already rolled up 215 points in 6 games.

So where does this put me in regards to playing on or against the Chiefs?

I think that every time they play a team with a better than average defense, its time to bet against them. But keep in mind that only if we see recent play on defense, that is as bad as the season long average points allowed.

If KC improves on points allowed, then redo the math and see how much better the numbers are at the most recent group of games at that time. Right now they are going to be bet on heavier than they were, just because they were competitive in New England - And that means the point spread will be too fat to try and cover. My bet is that they will start failing to cover more than not, in the last 10 remaining games.

Same thinking goes for a few other teams if you pat attention wether they are playing better or worse as the season goes.. Cleveland,
Buffalo,
Miami,
Jets,
Chicago,
Wash,
Rams,
Saints.
By the way, The Saints are the best-bet team right now on the board as a dog. Look for a SU win in Baltimore. Bank on it.


GL .Feedback welcome

Interesting take on the Chiefs, and it sure looks like you're correct. However, just for this week, I hit them hard at -5.5 vs. the Bengals for a variety of reasons. And that's with the assumption that Cincinnati could easily put up 30 or so points.

I can see the Pats & Chiefs having a letdown.

Vegas must think so making the Pats only -3

Bears +3
Bengals +6

Good luck

Blotto said:

Interesting take on the Chiefs, and it sure looks like you're correct. However, just for this week, I hit them hard at -5.5 vs. the Bengals for a variety of reasons. And that's with the assumption that Cincinnati could easily put up 30 or so points.

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Bengals have a fair defense but Balt, Cleve, and Pitt all are better. But then again they have each played each other in a few games, so those stats are skewed a bit.
Your common denominator that could lead to a possible advantage, is that the Steelers, (who played real bad against KC earlier,) would give some indication that the Bengals are in fact, a better bet. Pitt was playing pathetically bad in week 2, even though the Chiefs won 43-37. Cincy could go in there and upset IMO.
Also - all 6 games that Cincy played, were against better defenses than what KC has played...and how KC defense currently is..
I'll likely be on the Bengals myself when I finish capping some factors.

KC was a 4-5 point dog in Pittsburgh who had come off a tie with Cle the prior week and had no rb or offense. And I don't see that there is a real 10-11 point swing in KC's favor that warrants the Chiefs to cover the -5.5 in this game. Especially when Cincy and Pitt are Both Playing much better right now, than when Pitt played KC.

When capping, I try to forget the record and rely more on the performances. IF KC's record was 3-3 at this time, this game could be a PK line, but the Hype has produced fat numbers for KC to cover now, especially as I said, the game against New England as the reason.

Thanks for the feedback. GLTU

my computer says the KC Chiefs outgained Denver 446 yds to 355 yds..........is that the way you have it ?

Greenbacks said:

I can see the Pats & Chiefs having a letdown.

Vegas must think so making the Pats only -3

Bears +3
Bengals +6

Good luck

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Not sure if Vegas thinks they are in for a let down.
Actually Da'Bears are playing real well defensively and not having much trouble scoring with my boy Mitchell Trebisky at QB.
Its more likely that they will attract more money on NE tan Chicago as the following for the Pats in big weekly. This looks like a game that the Bears may actually win, but BB has coaching skills that take away some of the best plans by opponents.

That said, I like the Bears with the +4 (-138) @5Dimes, so best of luck with your plays.

Thanks for the feedback.

GL

I think CINCY is a fake team

they should have lost to both Indy and Miami and barely beat a lousy Atlanta team. The only strong game they played was week 2 at home versus the Ravens.
I took cincy this week in the pool, but I would not put my hard earned money on them. I would not be surprised to see KC put up 40 on them.

G-Man! said:

Not sure if Vegas thinks they are in for a let down.
Actually Da'Bears are playing real well defensively and not having much trouble scoring with my boy Mitchell Trebisky at QB.
Its more likely that they will attract more money on NE tan Chicago as the following for the Pats in big weekly. This looks like a game that the Bears may actually win, but BB has coaching skills that take away some of the best plans by opponents.

That said, I like the Bears with the +4 (-138) @5Dimes, so best of luck with your plays.

Thanks for the feedback.

GL

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But it is the Patriots.

And the Bears.

Lol

I believe the Bears are the the play for sure.

Good luck this week

Good stuff! Allow me to throw in a couple of other factors: Cincinnati has historically struggled against mobile QB's. Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton don't exactly shine under the bright lights of national TV (Week 2's Baltimore game being an exception), and Arrowhead Stadium can be brutal. The Bengals will likely be down a few guys on D, stretching an already questionable secondary.

LOL, maybe the best play is the over here. I'd be stunned if the Bengals win in this scenario, but I've been stunned before. Chiefs can obviously prevail without covering, too. Best of luck to you as well, always appreciate when someone breaks down a game the way you did.

Khalil Mack right ankle injury. He didn't practice yesterday but you've got to think he'll play. Might not be getting around the edge quite as fast though

I like the bears and have been riding them so far this year. But the Pats record in October over the years is ridiculous and I feel they make Trubisky look less than average come Sunday

powerz said:

I like the bears and have been riding them so far this year. But the Pats record in October over the years is ridiculous and I feel they make Trubisky look less than average come Sunday

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The kid grew up in my town (Mentor) and he was on local TV every Friday in HighSchool. Ohio State Blew their chance for him. Browns did the same thing. I called local talk shows here said the Browns should draft him first - but they went the defensive route. Fools...

He is extremely good and will only get better, now that the Bears actually have receivers. Last year everyone was on IR.

Trubisky was held back at NC because the stupid coach promised the starting QB that he would play through his senior year. Mitch only played a little more than one season. Chicago was brilliant in moving up with a trade in the draft to take him.

And far as the Pats go...they haven't stopped anyone - yet. And this is the FIRST top defense that the Pats have played. Chi-Town could light em up!

GL

Blotto said:

Good stuff! Allow me to throw in a couple of other factors: Cincinnati has historically struggled against mobile QB's. Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton don't exactly shine under the bright lights of national TV (Week 2's Baltimore game being an exception), and Arrowhead Stadium can be brutal. The Bengals will likely be down a few guys on D, stretching an already questionable secondary.

LOL, maybe the best play is the over here. I'd be stunned if the Bengals win in this scenario, but I've been stunned before. Chiefs can obviously prevail without covering, too. Best of luck to you as well, always appreciate when someone breaks down a game the way you did.

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Never count out a high scoring dog against a team with no defense.

Thanks for the feedback. GL on what ever you play.