Nfl Week 7

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Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Last week 4-6 +60
YTD 24-23 +809

RX Super contest 4-1 now sitting with 18.5 points

Tough week for me last week as 2 games swung against me and wrecked my week.

That Chicago game cost me $1500 - Lost my ML bet and my Teaser b/c of that loss
I was leading several online pools and just need the Packers to cover on MNF to cash at least $1400. But they took a sh!t and i ended up runner up in many pools. Funny thing is by Monday night all indicators were a SF cover in my system, I should have hedged my pools...oh well lesson learned.

WEEK 7 - Injuries are mounting, We have a first coach firing ( Tampa Def Co-ord ) We have Elway admitting you can't make in season adjustments, Top flight teams like the Pats, Rams, Ravens, Saints are no surprise but we have a few flash in the pans in Miami, Chicago ( who could be 5-0), Cinncy and Yes even KC Can they keep it going with that defense? Lots of teams scratching their heads Eagles, Vikes, Jaqs & Falcons I would say the 1st 3 the QB play has been an issue for ATL it is the defense...look for those teams to start to start to correct their problems and get it going.

My Sleeper though is the LA chargers - I have them to win the AFC west - I would still bet that - I added them to win the Superbowl +1350 $50 today...Should provide a good hedge opportunity or maybe let it ride we'll see how the season goes.

ANYWAYS back to week 7

I think the public and favs will win the weeks 7 -9 have come in over 55% of the Favs over the last 7 years
the biggest line movement trend to keep on eye on during that Span RLM dogs are 19-54 in that span

The Falcons, Cowboys, Chargers & Titans are all heading towards their byes in Week 8

Home dogs had been on a roll they were .500 last week and 64% on the year still...There are a few this week Arizona, Chic, Jets, San Fran ( the dreaded double digit divisional home dog )....

the Thursday night play....

Arizona Defense, Home field advantage, Denver Road woes and last weeks back door cover all have me on the Cardinals +1.5 -115 $115 tomorrow.
I think David Johnson goes off - the Cards are banged up up front on the oline - but denver rush defense sucks

On a side note how about them Canucks - Projected to be one of the worst teams in the league they are 4-2 and on a 3 game road winning trip upending Tampa Bay, Florida and Pittsburgh. Well done boys if we could stay realitively healthy maybe we can win a few more, expect we are already down our super rookie (sneaky Pete) who had been leading the team in scoring and Jay Beagle who was their #1 signing in the off season. Next up is tmr night against another cup Fav the Winnipeg Jets

See you on Saturday or Sunday

Gl guys

Powerz
 

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PWZ.......solid write up and info........BOL with your action and contest this week buddy..........indy
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Thanks Jaba and Indy

Well the Thursday night losses continue...0-1 -115 for the week.

Just doing some work on Opening lines week 7 vs Spring lines week 7 vs PR changes

For example Denver line was within one of spring line but the Net change in PR was Denver +4 - suggesting Value was on Denver

Chargers open 4 points higher but the net change in PR is +2 - Value on Tenn 2 points
Jaqs open 1.5 points higher but their net change is -4 - Value on Houston by 5.5 points

Minny no change but the net change is PR is -7 - Suggesting NYJ 7 points of value and they should actually be favored
Tampa 2.5 points lower - but there has been no change in PR's so value on Tampa +2.5
Atlanta Line is 2.5 lower today Opened -3.5 was -6...but the net change in the PR ATL is -5 Suggesting 2.5 points of value on NYG.....& now that the line is -6 again the Value on the GMEN is 5 points

QB EFFECTED GAMES - I give 4 points for a starting QB - More for the like of Brady, brees, Rogers

COLTS up 6 points from Spring - But is Derek Anderson anyDifferent than Josh Allen? He was actually their projected starter - The Net PR has not moved That means there is 6 points of value on BUFF
RAMS are up 9 points from the spring line Yup thats right LAR were only -1 Vs Garropolo and the Niners.....but now it is Beathard the net change in PR between the two teams is 9 Points Rams up 4 Niners down 5 ....now mix in the Qb change and there is some value on the Rams but with CJ in as the QBR has not changed much for this team so That line looks right...
MIAMI is down 4 points - No change in NET PR Asswater is a definite downgrade although the team played well for him and knows ADAM Gases system form his time in Denver....I think this line is right too.

ALL the other games the NET change was 2 points or less

But based on this alone Leans on TENN, Buffalo, Houst, NyJ, Tampa and NyG.....wow pretty ugly line up eh?

See you on Sunday

P
 

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Those are “hit enter on your bet and Puke plays..!!” I have been there before. Ha..!! I have several this week as well mike..!!
 

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Thanks Jaba and Indy

Well the Thursday night losses continue...0-1 -115 for the week.

Just doing some work on Opening lines week 7 vs Spring lines week 7 vs PR changes

For example Denver line was within one of spring line but the Net change in PR was Denver +4 - suggesting Value was on Denver

Chargers open 4 points higher but the net change in PR is +2 - Value on Tenn 2 points
Jaqs open 1.5 points higher but their net change is -4 - Value on Houston by 5.5 points

Minny no change but the net change is PR is -7 - Suggesting NYJ 7 points of value and they should actually be favored
Tampa 2.5 points lower - but there has been no change in PR's so value on Tampa +2.5
Atlanta Line is 2.5 lower today Opened -3.5 was -6...but the net change in the PR ATL is -5 Suggesting 2.5 points of value on NYG.....& now that the line is -6 again the Value on the GMEN is 5 points

QB EFFECTED GAMES - I give 4 points for a starting QB - More for the like of Brady, brees, Rogers

COLTS up 6 points from Spring - But is Derek Anderson anyDifferent than Josh Allen? He was actually their projected starter - The Net PR has not moved That means there is 6 points of value on BUFF
RAMS are up 9 points from the spring line Yup thats right LAR were only -1 Vs Garropolo and the Niners.....but now it is Beathard the net change in PR between the two teams is 9 Points Rams up 4 Niners down 5 ....now mix in the Qb change and there is some value on the Rams but with CJ in as the QBR has not changed much for this team so That line looks right...
MIAMI is down 4 points - No change in NET PR Asswater is a definite downgrade although the team played well for him and knows ADAM Gases system form his time in Denver....I think this line is right too.

ALL the other games the NET change was 2 points or less

But based on this alone Leans on TENN, Buffalo, Houst, NyJ, Tampa and NyG.....wow pretty ugly line up eh?

See you on Sunday

P
Appreciate the detailed analysis good luck this week & season powers!
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Thanks Guy s- Damian thanks for stopping by...

SUNDAY TOTALS
BEAR U49.5 $220
DOLPHIN U47 $220
EAGLE U47 $220
JET U45 $220
JAQS U43 $220


SIDES
EAGLE -3.5 -130 $390
LION ML -160 $480

gl footballers
 

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Contest plays
buff +7.5
jets +3
tampa -3
dallas +2
giant +5.5
 

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Love the lions. Today

assfucker 2+picks...!
 

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Contest plays
buff +7.5
jets +3
tampa -3
dallas +2
giant +5.5

BOL today powerz!!

I was a little surprised to see 4 dogs after you said Public and Favs do well weeks 7-9.
 

Dice, Sports & Cocktails
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Timmy I am a dog bettor at heart hate laying the chalk...

Live BET O47.5 TAMPA $208
 

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Im a dog player at heart as well... :) sometimes so difficult to lay chalk, but you have too .... sometimes...
 

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