ARIZONA -103 over Denver
8:20 PM EST. It was another ho-hum week for Arizona, as it fell by double digits 27-17 at the Vikings and either pushed or covered depending on what number you got in on. There's not much to sugarcoat here with the Redbirds. They hung around with Minnesota in the first half but a meaningless TD when they were stuck 27-10 made the score look a bit more respectable. The Cardinals have lost two games by scores of 24-6 and 34-0 among others. Arizona’s only win this season is a 28-18 undeserving victory against the 49ers. In that lone victory over the 49ers, San Francisco outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, Arizona converted just two third downs the entire game and the 49ers held a massive 2-1 time of possession edge. In fact, San Francisco ran 92 plays to Arizona's 49. To say that the Cardinals market appeal is low would be an understatement.
However, there has also been some positives for Arizona since making the switch to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen is coming off his best passing game of the season against a rather stout Vikings defense. That may get somewhat unnoticed in the box score but not here. Furthermore, since Rosen took over, the Cards have a three-point loss to Seattle and a two-point loss to Chicago. That’s not bad The ties between these two teams might run deeper than one might think too, as Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was hired to be the Broncos OC in 2017 after being fired as the head man in San Diego. McCoy didn't last long in the Mile High city, as he was canned after just six games. When taking into consideration how poor the Broncos have been on offense this season, it looks like Vance Joseph was just trying to save his own ass, which is now firmly on the hot seat. Knowing how much a good showing would mean to their boss, the Cardinals offense figures to be uber-focused here while the defense has been an above average unit all season.
If you look at the Broncos on paper, there could be a case to be made that they are better than their 2-4 record might indicate. After all, Denver had the then-undefeated Chiefs dead to rights on Monday Night Football, but heartbreakingly lost that game after blowing a fourth-quarter lead. Last week against the Rams, it appears Denver went blow-for-blow with the NFL's best team, but again came up just short in a 23-20 defeat but don’t be fooled into thinking last week’s three-point loss was close because it wasn’t. Denver has been outgained in four straight games and most of the damage they did against L.A. last Sunday came after the Rams took their foot off the gas after they built a 20-3 lead late in the third quarter. The garbage time points put up by Case Keenum and company are a proper way to describe the Broncos offense. Last season in Minnesota, the journeyman pivot was an analytics darling and finished the season as the top DVOA quarterback. He parlayed that success with the Vikings into a big money guaranteed contract, but with the big bucks has come some significant regression. We call that YAC (Yards after Cash) and Keenum isn’t doing so well. Of the 34 NFL QBs that qualify, Keenum is 29th in QBR, 28th in passer rating, 21st in yards per attempt and he leads the league in interceptions. Keenum was booed off the field in Denver and the home crowd erupted when backup Chad Kelly came on the field to take a knee. The money Keenum is making is the only reason he's still playing.
Additionally, the spot is a horrible one for Denver. In Week 3, they flew East for a game in Baltimore. In Week 4, they returned home to play a highly anticipated game against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The very next week, they flew east once again to play the Jets in New York. Last week, they returned home to play the Rams and this week, they will fly west for a game in Arizona and they’ll do so on a short week. To recap, in the last five weeks, the Broncs have traveled east, home, east, home and now west on a short week and to complicate matters even more, four of the five games were played with extremely high intensity and now they are road chalk? Finally, Denver is 2-4 but one of their victories was a 20-19 victory over the worst team in football, the Oakland Raiders. Its other win occurred against Seattle in Week 1 by three points. The Broncs are four points and a bounce from being 0-6. We're not sure what angle the schedule makers had when they penciled the Broncos and Cardinals into a nationally televised prime-time spot, but Patriots/Chiefs this is not. There is only one way to spell this game out and that's U-G-L-Y. The good news is that ugly pays the same as beautiful.
Denver is favored here on pedigree and market perception but if Arizona’s players were in Denver uniforms and vice versa, the Cardinals players wearing Denver gear and playing at home would be a -4½-point choice in this one. This is outstanding value fading a dreg that cannot be road chalk, PERIOD (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
8:20 PM EST. It was another ho-hum week for Arizona, as it fell by double digits 27-17 at the Vikings and either pushed or covered depending on what number you got in on. There's not much to sugarcoat here with the Redbirds. They hung around with Minnesota in the first half but a meaningless TD when they were stuck 27-10 made the score look a bit more respectable. The Cardinals have lost two games by scores of 24-6 and 34-0 among others. Arizona’s only win this season is a 28-18 undeserving victory against the 49ers. In that lone victory over the 49ers, San Francisco outgained the Cardinals by 227 yards, Arizona converted just two third downs the entire game and the 49ers held a massive 2-1 time of possession edge. In fact, San Francisco ran 92 plays to Arizona's 49. To say that the Cardinals market appeal is low would be an understatement.
However, there has also been some positives for Arizona since making the switch to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. Rosen is coming off his best passing game of the season against a rather stout Vikings defense. That may get somewhat unnoticed in the box score but not here. Furthermore, since Rosen took over, the Cards have a three-point loss to Seattle and a two-point loss to Chicago. That’s not bad The ties between these two teams might run deeper than one might think too, as Cardinals offensive coordinator Mike McCoy was hired to be the Broncos OC in 2017 after being fired as the head man in San Diego. McCoy didn't last long in the Mile High city, as he was canned after just six games. When taking into consideration how poor the Broncos have been on offense this season, it looks like Vance Joseph was just trying to save his own ass, which is now firmly on the hot seat. Knowing how much a good showing would mean to their boss, the Cardinals offense figures to be uber-focused here while the defense has been an above average unit all season.
If you look at the Broncos on paper, there could be a case to be made that they are better than their 2-4 record might indicate. After all, Denver had the then-undefeated Chiefs dead to rights on Monday Night Football, but heartbreakingly lost that game after blowing a fourth-quarter lead. Last week against the Rams, it appears Denver went blow-for-blow with the NFL's best team, but again came up just short in a 23-20 defeat but don’t be fooled into thinking last week’s three-point loss was close because it wasn’t. Denver has been outgained in four straight games and most of the damage they did against L.A. last Sunday came after the Rams took their foot off the gas after they built a 20-3 lead late in the third quarter. The garbage time points put up by Case Keenum and company are a proper way to describe the Broncos offense. Last season in Minnesota, the journeyman pivot was an analytics darling and finished the season as the top DVOA quarterback. He parlayed that success with the Vikings into a big money guaranteed contract, but with the big bucks has come some significant regression. We call that YAC (Yards after Cash) and Keenum isn’t doing so well. Of the 34 NFL QBs that qualify, Keenum is 29th in QBR, 28th in passer rating, 21st in yards per attempt and he leads the league in interceptions. Keenum was booed off the field in Denver and the home crowd erupted when backup Chad Kelly came on the field to take a knee. The money Keenum is making is the only reason he's still playing.
Additionally, the spot is a horrible one for Denver. In Week 3, they flew East for a game in Baltimore. In Week 4, they returned home to play a highly anticipated game against the Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The very next week, they flew east once again to play the Jets in New York. Last week, they returned home to play the Rams and this week, they will fly west for a game in Arizona and they’ll do so on a short week. To recap, in the last five weeks, the Broncs have traveled east, home, east, home and now west on a short week and to complicate matters even more, four of the five games were played with extremely high intensity and now they are road chalk? Finally, Denver is 2-4 but one of their victories was a 20-19 victory over the worst team in football, the Oakland Raiders. Its other win occurred against Seattle in Week 1 by three points. The Broncs are four points and a bounce from being 0-6. We're not sure what angle the schedule makers had when they penciled the Broncos and Cardinals into a nationally televised prime-time spot, but Patriots/Chiefs this is not. There is only one way to spell this game out and that's U-G-L-Y. The good news is that ugly pays the same as beautiful.
Denver is favored here on pedigree and market perception but if Arizona’s players were in Denver uniforms and vice versa, the Cardinals players wearing Denver gear and playing at home would be a -4½-point choice in this one. This is outstanding value fading a dreg that cannot be road chalk, PERIOD (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
