MistaFlava's NFL Football Week 7 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2018 MistaFlava NFL Record: 10-15 ATS (-23.00 Units)

Things just not going my way in the NFL like they are in college but it's time to turn things around and keep grinding away. My profits in College make up for this deficit.

Good luck to everyone this week!

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Thursday, October 18




Arizona Cardinals +1 (10 Units)

The Denver Broncos are not looking so great in 2018 and it's been a disappointing season to say the least. So disappointing that Head Coach Vance Joseph is one of the only coaches on the so called "Hot Seat" already after only 6 weeks of play this season. Can the Broncos turn it around? I'm not so sure about that. Somehow 62% of the public is still backing the 2-4 SU Broncos to win and cover this game and I just don't get it. Let's take a look at their two road games so far. The Broncos went to Baltimore in Week 3 of the regular season and lost 27-14 and were outyarded by 49 total yards in that game. In their other road game they went to the New York Jets and lost 34-16 being outyarded by 76 total yards in that game. That makes it four straight games now that the Broncos have been outyarded and the fan base is losing patience. I think the Denver offensive line is going to struggle in this one because the Cardinals D-Line has allowed only 4.4 yards per carry at home and they have 8 sacks in three home games. That's a problem because QB Case Keenum has been sacked 7 times in two road games and has thrown 2 interceptions. I also hate the fact that Denver is taking 9.5 penalties per road game this season and it has cost them 82.5 total yards per game. OUCH! They are scoring touchdowns only 28.6% of the time once inside the Red Zone in their two road games and they are facing a Cardinals defense that has allowed opponents at home to convert only 29.7% of the time and score touchdowns only 55.6% of the time once inside the Red Zone. This is not a great defense but they are good enough to make some plays at home against the struggling Broncos.

Okay so the key tonight for the Arizona Cardinals, with QB Josh Rosen playing his first ever game on PrimeTime television, will be to get superstar RB David Johnson going on the ground and going on the ground he should get going. I say that because the Broncos can't stop the run. They've been awful in their two road games against half decent running backs of the Ravens and Jets. Arizona is 1-5 SU on the season coming in but they have played well enough to go 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games overall (pretty much since Rosen took over). What's shocking to me is that Arizona has not outyarded a single opponent this season in six games but they have found a way to keep things close with Chicago (lost by 2), Seattle (lost by 3), beating San Francisco by 10 in San Francisco and losing to Minnesota on the road by 10 last weekend. All good results despite the yardage battle loss. In their two road games this season Denver allowed 200.0 rushing yards per game on a whopping 6.1 yards per carry so again this should be the game David Johnson gets things going for this running game which is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry at home. In the air, QB Josh Rosen will deal with a heavy pass rush but...for all the hype around Von Miller and friends, the Broncos have only 3 sacks in two road games and have forced only 2 turnovers total. They are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt in the air and Big Sam (Jets) and Mr. Elite (Flacco) both managed to put up some decent numbers against this defense and had average QB Ratings of 136.0 in those two games. The Cardinals are scoring touchdowns 60.0% of the time while in the Red Zone at home and Denver's road defense has allowed opponents to convert 48.3% of the time on 3rd downs. Arizona will move the ball.

The last time Arizona hosted the Denver Broncos I think Josh Rosen had to be in Grade 7 at the very least and the Cardinals led by RB Tim Hightower's monster game on the ground won 43-13. Well you can expect David Johnson to have the same type of game tonight. DENVER IS 3-13 ATS IN THEIR LAST 16 GAMES ON THE ROAD! They are also 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games coming off a straight up loss and they are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games versus a team with a losing record on the season. Arizona comes into this game on a 4-1 ATS run in home games dating back to last season and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up loss. If you look back at the last 3-4 seasons I don't think there is a worse spread team than the Denver Broncos. They have covered the spread in only 6 of their last 26 games overall. Yes you read that right, 6 OF THEIR LAST 26!!! This is not a good game if you're looking for fireworks but I am going with Arizona to win and cover this spread because they will run the ball, keep the pressure off Rosen and beat a bad Denver team. They've been very close their last 4-5 games and got a win in San Francisco. Cardinals for me!

Trend of the Game: Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.


Arizona 19, Denver 13





more to come...

BOL my friend.

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Saturday, October 21



Tennessee Titans +6.5 (10 Units)

This is it. This is finally the week the Tennessee Titans get their shit together and show us some kind of decent performance. Yes the game is being played in England but this is a great chance for these guys at 3-3 SU (somehow) on the season to earn a magical 4th win. It doesn't get any worse than the Titans 21-0 loss to Baltimore last weekend where they were outyarded by an embarrassing 255 total yards of offense. The one and only game this season where they have outyarded their opponent was the 9-6 win over Jacksonville back in Week 3 of the season. Having said all of that, Tennessee will always have a shot with their decent defense. Even on offense they come in averaging 5.0 yards per play in their last three games. The Los Angeles Chargers are allowing 5.7 yards per play in their last three games. The concern is the protection for QB Marcus Mariota who has been sacked 16 times in his last three games but I think if the Titans can get some running game going early in this one (Chargers allow 4.0 yards per carry last three games), he'll make some plays.

The Los Angeles Chargers come into this game in a huge three game win streak but will a trip to England for this one derail how well they are playing and winning game? Sometimes it does. The Chargerswill be without RB Melvin Gordon III which should somewhat cripple their running game which had been averaging 150.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry their last three games. Either way running on the Tennessee Titans is not easy and their last three opponents have managed only 3.8 yards per carry. There will obviously be a bigger focus on the passing game now where Tennesee's last three opponents have averaged a QB Rating of only 81.2 and where the Titans secondary has 2 interceptions in those games and where their last three opponents have managed only 5.9 yards per pass attempt. The Titans really don't give up anything deep and that's going to make a big difference in Phillip Rivers ability (and time) to throw deep as he had averaged 8.9 yards per pass attempt his last three games. No Gordon should really change things for this offense.

Like I mentioned earlier, Tennessee will always have a chance because of their underrated defense which has been under siege all season. Opposing teams are averaging 62.5 plays run against this D per game while the Titans offense is averaging only 54.0 plays run per game this season. I like the Titans here I really do. They are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record on the season and as bad as they were last week, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after accumulating less than 250 total yards of offense in their previous game. The Chargers scored 38 last week against Cleveland but looking back at previous seasons they have gone only 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after scoring 30 points in the previous. The Titans are 0-9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings so this is a risk but I'm going Titans because the game is in England, Melvin Gordon is OUT and the game is a bit sketchy.

Trend of the Game: Tennessee is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record.


Tennessee 20, LA Chargers 17





more to come...

Best of luck today

Hache Man said:

Best of luck today

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Thanks Hache Man, same to you bud!

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Buffalo-Indianapolis 'UNDER' 43.5 (10 Units)

Man the Buffalo Bills are in big trouble with rookie QB Josh Allen out because backup Nate Peterman is an absolute mess and starting QB in this one is the veteran Derek Anderson who just got here two weeks ago and could not have possibly learned the entire offense this fast. That means the Bills are going to lean big time on RB LeSean McCoy in this one to carry the ball and keep the chains moving against a Colts defense that is allowing only 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games and who have been run on 30+ times per game in those games. The Bills QB's (Allen and Peterman) have combined for a QB Rating of 38.4 in their last three games so again as much as I like Derek Anderson in a backup role, he just got here and plays will be kept simple. This is a nice relief for a Colts defense allowing 39.0 points per game in their last three games.

On the flip side of things, the one thing the Buffalo Bills do have is a defense. The Bills are allowing only 286.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 5.0 yards per play. Considering other teams are averaging 57.7 plays run per game in those games against them that's pretty good. The Colts offense has been rolling and they are averaging 30.7 points per game in their last three games on 448.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play but again this Bills defense has come through for them this season. The last three quarterbacks to face the Bills have an average QB Rating of 62.1 and in those games the Bills have 11 sacks, 4 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries so as much as the Colts move the ball, this defense will find a way to get it back.

Right now coming into this game the Bills are on a streak of four straight UNDERs and I believe that streak will continue. The UNDER is 5-1 in Buffalo's last six road games and the UNDER has also hit in 11 of the Colts last 15 home games dating back to the last few seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams and I really think this is going to be a struggle for points at both ends of the field. The Bills will simplify things for Derek Anderson, they will run and punt a ton in this one and hope their underrated defense can hold ground like they have done all season. This total is way too high.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 8-1 in the Colts last nine games after they allowed 350+ total yards of offense in their previous game.


Indianapolis 13, Buffalo 10





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MistaFlava said:

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Buffalo-Indianapolis 'UNDER' 43.5 (10 Units)

Man the Buffalo Bills are in big trouble with rookie QB Josh Allen out because backup Nate Peterman is an absolute mess and starting QB in this one is the veteran Derek Anderson who just got here two weeks ago and could not have possibly learned the entire offense this fast. That means the Bills are going to lean big time on RB LeSean McCoy in this one to carry the ball and keep the chains moving against a Colts defense that is allowing only 3.4 yards per carry in their last three games and who have been run on 30+ times per game in those games. The Bills QB's (Allen and Peterman) have combined for a QB Rating of 38.4 in their last three games so again as much as I like Derek Anderson in a backup role, he just got here and plays will be kept simple. This is a nice relief for a Colts defense allowing 39.0 points per game in their last three games.

On the flip side of things, the one thing the Buffalo Bills do have is a defense. The Bills are allowing only 286.7 total yards of offense per game in their last three games on 5.0 yards per play. Considering other teams are averaging 57.7 plays run per game in those games against them that's pretty good. The Colts offense has been rolling and they are averaging 30.7 points per game in their last three games on 448.3 total yards of offense and 6.0 yards per play but again this Bills defense has come through for them this season. The last three quarterbacks to face the Bills have an average QB Rating of 62.1 and in those games the Bills have 11 sacks, 4 interceptions and 4 fumble recoveries so as much as the Colts move the ball, this defense will find a way to get it back.

Right now coming into this game the Bills are on a streak of four straight UNDERs and I believe that streak will continue. The UNDER is 5-1 in Buffalo's last six road games and the UNDER has also hit in 11 of the Colts last 15 home games dating back to the last few seasons. The UNDER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these teams and I really think this is going to be a struggle for points at both ends of the field. The Bills will simplify things for Derek Anderson, they will run and punt a ton in this one and hope their underrated defense can hold ground like they have done all season. This total is way too high.

Trend of the Game: The UNDER is 8-1 in the Colts last nine games after they allowed 350+ total yards of offense in their previous game.


Indianapolis 13, Buffalo 10





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Chicago Bears +1.5 (10 Units)

Just a few weeks ago the entire NFL Community and betting world had written off the Patriots as "done" and "this could be the end of an era" but then they bounce back and beat the NFL's hottest team the Kansas City Chiefs at home last week and everyone is ranting and raving once again. But why? First of all look at their two road games this season. The Pats went to Jacksonville and Detroit and were badly outyarded in both games by a total combined total of 383 yards of offense losing both games straight up. Why should this be any different? Even without Khalil Mack, I like this Bears defense. So far this season at home they have allowed only 13.5 points per game on 293.5 total yards of offense and 5.1 yards per play. New England in their two road games this season have scored a total of 30 points at a clip of 15.0 points per game. In two home games this season the Bears have 10 sacks, 4 interceptions and have forced 4 fumbles (recovered 1). They are allowing only 3.4 yards per carry on the ground and have held opponents to 32.0% conversion clip on third downs. Until the Pats show me something on the road I'm not backing them.

The Chicago Bears offense has been impressive (at times) this season with QB Mitch Trubisky at the helms. In their two home games this season the Bears average 36.0 points per game in wins over Tampa Bay and Seattle and in those games they managed 377.0 total yards of offense on 6.4 yards per play. This Patriots defense has been a lot better lately than it was at the beginning of the year but they have still allowed 28.5 points per road game and 447.0 total yards of offense on 6.5 yards per play in those games. Trubisky has a QB Rating of 184.7 in two home games this season and has completed 73.3% of his passes for 8.8 yards per pass attempt in those games. That's a problem for a Patriots defense that has looked very slow at times this season and allowed their two road QB's to complete 69.1% of their passes for a QB Rating of 154.1 and 7.8 yards per pass attempt. The Bears offense should eat in this one.

Over the course of the Patriots dynasty era with Brady and Bellichik, winning these kinds of games has always been their bread and butter. Going on the road against teams with a winning record and coming away with a win. Times have changed however. The Patriots come into this game 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record on the season. Don't forget they won last week but the Chiefs covered. Chicago comes into this game 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games (impressive) and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four games coming off a straight up loss. These two teams don't play each other often but the HOME TEAM is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and I just don't trust the Patriots on the road coming off that shootout with KC last weekend.

Trend of the Game: Chicago is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 home games.


Chicago 27, New England 19





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Mr. Flava......on them both with you...…..BOL with your action buddy...….indy

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Cleveland Browns +3.5 (50 Units) ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***

Okay hear me out on this one before hitting the panic button and fading (like anyone should have been doing with my picks for weeks now). The Cleveland Browns have played two road games in 2018 and have come very very close to getting a win in both. They went to New Orleans Week 2 of the season and lost 21-18 in a game where they outyarded the high-powered Saints by 56 total yards in the game. They then went to Oakland a few weeks later and lost 45-42 in Overtime in a game where they did not play well but found a way to stay close and force overtime. This team competes. Now they get to face a Tampa Bay defense that 25.5 points per home game this season on 412.5 total yards of offense and 6.3 yards per play allowed in those games. This defense sucks! The Browns are averaging 6.3 yards per play in their two road games and QB Baker Mayfield has a QB Rating of 126.7 in those games. Turnovers killed the Browns in Oakland and New Orleans (7 of them in total) but this Buccaneers defense has managed only 3 turnovers in two home games and opposing QB's have a QB Rating of 152.7 when playing in this stadium. Tampa Bay has also allowed touchdowns in 100% of their two home opponents trips to the Red Zone and opposing QB's are completing a whopping 75.0% of their passes for 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Mayfield is going to make some big plays in a climate he loves and the Bucs defense is in trouble here.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers always come into every season it seems with very high expectations and no matter what they try they can't seem to put it all together. The Bucs have lost three straight games after the hot 2-0 SU start to the season and in those games they have been outyarded just one time and that was in Chicago. Nobody is doubting how good the Tampa Bay offense has been because they have been one of the best in the NFL this season and they average 7.3 yards per play at home but they have almost no running game to speak of on home turf. Tampa Bay averages only 53 rushing yards per home game on 2.7 yards per carry and a lot of this game will be on the shoulders of QB Jameis Winston. Quarterback protection has been an issue for the Buccaneers who's QB's have been sacked 5 times in two home games so far in 2018 and that's not good against a Cleveland pass rush that averages 3.0 sacks per road game this season. The Browns defense has 2 interceptions and 2 fumble recoveries so far this season in two road games and their opponents in those games are completing only 28.6% of their third down chances. For me this will all come down to Red Zone and 3rd down defense (Browns allowing touchdowns in only 54.5% of Red Zone trips on the road this season) in this game and Cleveland has the advantage.

There won't be too many people on the Brownies but considering they went to Oakland and New Orleans and kept each game within a FG, this line seems like a gift going up against TAMPA BAY's WORST RANKED DEFENSE IN THE NFL this season. Because the Browns have been so bad the last decade or so there are no great spread stats to discuss or even mention here but the same can be said about Tampa Bay. The difference is this is a new era for the Browns and Baker Mayfield is a difference maker. Tampa Bay is 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games coming off a game where they have allowed 250+ passing yards. They are also 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games played in October and have covered the spread in only 12 of their last 38 home games versus a team with a losing record on the road. WOW! I'm going huge on the Browns in this game to cover and win.

Trend of the Game: Tampa Bay has covered the spread in only 12 of their last 38 home games versus a team with a losing road record.


Cleveland 34, Tampa Bay 18





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indiana said:

Mr. Flava......on them both with you...…..BOL with your action buddy...….indy

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Good luck today indy!

Mr. Flava...….solid write ups buddy...…..appreciate the early info as well...….continued success with today's action...…...indy

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Detroit Lions -3 (10 Units)

The Detroit Lions have played really well on the road in 2018 but don't have a win to show for it and that's about to change. Aside from being 2-0 ATS in games played at Dallas and San Francisco, the Lions came away with losses in both but they outyarded the Niners by 81 total yards in that game and should have beat the Cowboys had it not been for poor decisions late in the game. Coming off an improbable home win over the Packers two weeks ago, the Lions are well rested and ready to go. I say improbable because they were badly outyarded in that game but still won. QB Matthew Stafford has a QB Rating of 152.0 in his two road games this season and this offense is hitting at a clip of 404.5 total yards of offense per game and 6.7 yards per play in those games. Miami's defense is allowing 6.2 yards per play at home this season and opposing QB's have a QB Rating of 131.0 in those games. The Lions should be able to run the ball effectively in this one (5.1 yards per carry on the road) and throw the ball downfield (7.4 yards per pass attempt on the road) as they have turned the ball over only once in two road games and it was a fumble. I like the Lions offense in this one.

The Miami Dolphins beat the Chicago Bears at home last week and all of a sudden they are getting a ton of public love from people who were on the Bears last week. Why? Sure they are a surprising 4-2 SU and ATS on the season coming into this game but keeping things very honest they are not a good 4 win team. They're just not. The Dolphins have been lucky this season and if you look at some of their games they have been outyarded now in 4 of their regular season games (Jets, Raiders, Patriots, Bengals) and this should be another one of those games. Miami is averaging only 18.3 points per game in their last three games on only 5.8 yards per play in those games. They are due for some kind of letdown at home after averaging 7.4 yards per play in home games this season. Detroit's defense has allowed 6.4 yards per play in their last three games but they are a "bend but don't break" style defense. Their last three QB opponents have a QB Rating of only 97.9 and the Lions have 9 sacks in those games to go along with 1 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries. Their opponents are converting only 32.3% of the time on third downs in those games and they have made some big plays. Miami can't possibly keep winning while taking 8.7 penalties per game in their last three games. They come back down to earth in this one.

Like I said before the Lions have come close to winning on the road twice now this season and this is their chance to do it against a team that has been winning a lot more than they should. I just don't see the Dolphins moving to 5 wins. The Lions come in to this game as one of the hottest spreads teams around going 4-0 ATS in their last four games and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a BYE WEEK. The Dolphins on the other hand are coming off a war with the Bears at home last weekend and they are only 17-45-3 ATS in their last 65 home games versus a team with a losing road record. YIKES!!! That's covering at a clip of only 17 in their last 65. The Dolphins are also 1-5 ATS in their last six games coming off a game where they throw for 250+ passing yards so again this is a big time letdown spot for them. Lions should win this by 10+.

Trend of the Game: Detroit is 5-1 ATS in their last six games coming off a BYE WEEK!


Detroit 27, Miami 16





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Dallas Cowboys -1 (10 Units)

I am finally jumping on this Dallas Cowboys train after missing out the last few weeks and it's in a big rivalry game. The Cowboys come into this game 0-3 SU on the road this season losing games at Carolina, Seattle and Houston but they should have won in Houston and they outyarded the Seahawks in Seattle and still lost. Dallas won 33-19 here in 2017, they won here 27-23 back in 2016, they won 19-16 here back in 2015, they also won here in 2014 and 2013 so you get my drift. This is like a home game away from home and the Cowboys have been outstanding on the road in this rivalry. In their last three games the Cowboys offense is averaging 5.7 yards per play and they are going up against a Washington defense allowing 6.3 yards per play in their last three games. Zeke is averaging 4.6 yards per carry in his last three games and Washington allows 4.2 yards per carry. The Cowboys have scored 27.3 points per game in their last three games and should not miss a beat in this one.

The Washington Redskins are off to a 3-2 start on the season but in their last two games they have been outyarded by a total of 226 yards. One was a home win over Carolina and the other was a 43-19 road loss at New Orleans. We got see how bad this defense can be at times in that game. In their last three games the Redskins have managed 24.3 points per game but they are averaging only 5.4 yards per play in those games (Cowboys are averaging 5.7 in their last three) and the QB Play (Alex Smith) has not been as good as the Cowboys as Smith has a QB Rating of 83.7 in his last three games. The Cowboys secondary has been torched in those games but their run defense is allowing only 3.6 yards per carry and 83 rushing yards per game in those games. The key for me with this Cowboys defense (and in this game) is the Cowboys ability to keep teams out of the end zone the last three games. Their last three opponents have managed to score touchdowns only 25.0% of the time once inside the Red Zone and that kind of defense will win you games. Mark my words the Cowboys get some stops here.

Okay so as mentioned earlier, the Cowboys have won a ton of games here the last 10 seasons and they come into this game 4-0 ATS in their last four visits to Washington and the Road Team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight games between these teams. Dallas is also on a 4-0 ATS hot streak versus NFC East opponents and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a game where they scored 30+ points in their previous game (scored 40 against Jacksonville last weekend). Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus NFC East opponents and they are a horrendous 1-7 ATS in their last eight games coming off a straight up win. This is one of the biggest letdown teams in the NFL and it's not even close. Because Dallas is playing so well, because they have a ground game that can dominate rivalry games like this and because of their track record in Washington the last five years or so, I am going Dallas Cowboys in this one.

Trend of the Game: The Road Team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these teams.


Dallas 27, Washington 18





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I finally got a decent day in the NFL, my first of the season and ironically on my worst CFB week of the season. I'll take it and keep going.



Week 7 Recap

Arizona +1
Tennessee +6.5
Buffalo-Indianapolis 'UNDER' 43.5
Chicago +1.5
Cleveland +3.5 ***PLAY OF THE WEEK***
Miami -3
Dallas -1


4-2 ATS (+58.00 Units) this week with pending!




:toast:

Miami lost Flava

That’s what you get for fading my pats today!!

haha jk man, your my favorite capper on this forum keep up the great write ups

Hot Rocks said:

Miami lost Flava

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I think he meant to put Detroit -3

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Detroit Lions -3 (10 Units)

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Gotta Love that Browns game

Nice Call

DosEquis153 said:

I think he meant to put Detroit -3

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Yep, he clearly had the Lions