Best bets on Week 7 NFL games
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 7 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 7 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at New York Jets
Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Minnesota
Johnson: I bet the Vikings -3 on Sunday night. I anticipated a move up to -3.5, and with my number at Minnesota -4.7, I wanted to get my money down as soon as possible. At -3.5, I wouldn't recommend as big of a play. Something 50 to 60 percent of your standard bet size would be worthwhile. Two different people that I respect quite a bit, however, like the Jets at +3.5 in this matchup. We might see this come back down to the Vikings -3 later in the week anyway, so I wouldn't rush to lay the -3.5.
The Jets only punted one time in Week 6 against the Colts. New York scored 42 points, but Indianapolis still had an outside shot of tying the game late. New York benefitted from four turnovers and earned the win, but the Jets weren't the better team offensively throughout the game. They've struggled in the recent past against quality defenses such as Cleveland and Jacksonville, so I am not overreacting to a 42-34 win over the Colts like I feel the general public has. It's also worth noting that seven Jets starters, including leading rusher Isaiah Crowell, sat out practice on Wednesday.
Pick: Vikings -3 or better, smaller bet at -3.5
Sharp: Despite playing the fifth-easiest schedule of pass offenses, including two of the worst three (Bills and Cardinals), the Vikings pass defense still ranks 25th. Now Minnesota faces its third rookie QB of the year, taking on Sam Darnoldand the Jets' No. 27 passing attack. But those numbers are misleading. The Jets played four brutal pass defenses in consecutive weeks. After crushing Detroit's No. 28 pass defense 48-17, they had to face the Dolphins, Browns and Jaguars in consecutive weeks. They lost all three games and Darnold didn't look great. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;">However, he was dominant at home against the No. 8 pass defense of the Broncos, and then thrashed the No. 24 pass defense of the Colts last week.
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The Vikings run defense is a legit top-10 unit and will force Darnold to bear the burden of moving the ball. The same will likely happen for Kirk Cousins, as the Jets run defense ranks 16th and the Vikings are struggling to run the ball, although Latavius Murray helped gash the Cardinals last week. With the Jets missing a number of starters in the secondary, Cousins could have success. I expect Stefon Diggs to look dominant after facing shutdown CB Patrick Peterson last week.
Lean: Vikings -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) vs. Tennessee Titans in London
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Los Angeles
Johnson: The Chargers were extremely impressive this past Sunday. The typical San Diego team of recent years struggled in that spot on the road, but this time, Los Angeles put it to a really strong Cleveland team. The Chargers' response here in Week 7 becomes pretty significant. With a win over the Titans, San Diego will be sitting at 5-2 and have a good shot at finally giving Philip Rivers another opportunity to make a playoff run.
The Chargers' schedule is pretty weak for their next five games (Titans, at the Seahawks, at the Raiders, Broncos, Cardinals). They absolutely need to capitalize now while they remain relatively healthy, as the end of their schedule is extremely tough (at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, at Kansas City, Baltimore, at Denver).
I was expecting there to be some overreaction in the point spread after the Chargers' big win in Cleveland and the Titans' 21-0 home loss to the Ravens. It isn't as drastic as I had hoped. My projection for the game is Los Angeles -5.4, which isn't enough of a disagreement to make a bet. My total (44.9) lines up as well with the current market number, so I won't be making any plays in this game.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: It is highly puzzling to think that some believe Mike Vrabel is a great coach. Apart from a fake punt in an obvious coverage failure with no defender on the gunner, and a desire to play to your team's strengths against the Jaguars Week 3, I haven't seen anything to show he's been above average as a head coach.
Tennessee's weakness is defending the run, where its defense ranks 23rd despite playing the second-easiest schedule of run defenses. The No. 5 run offense of the Chargers should give this Titans run defense problems and result in multiple explosive runs. The Titans could have some success given their special teams edge and the fact that they have faced the NFL's most difficult schedule of run defenses to date.
Pick: Pass
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5)
Total: 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 63 percent picked Tampa Bay
Johnson: The Buccaneers ran one of the coolest plays at the end of their game in Atlanta on Sunday. They were down five points and on the Atlanta 21-yard line, too close to really heave a pass up into the end zone and close enough that a perfectly drawn play could catch the Falcons off guard and result in a score. Tampa Bay ran a quarterback draw with Jameis Winston that was wide open down the middle of the field and intentionally planned a pitch back to a wide receiver once Winston started getting chased down.
It almost worked, and if not for a bobbled scoop on the pitch back, I believe Tampa Bay would have won the game. I'm an X's and O's nerd, whether it be football or basketball, and I felt like I needed to enlighten the world in case some of you had missed that wild finish.
The Browns are likely throwing away the tape after their 38-14 home loss to the Chargers. They still aren't a team I will be looking to bet against (my number is Tampa Bay -3.2 in this particular matchup anyway), but I do think there is a small edge in the total. I have this lined at 51.4. The Buccaneers still allow 6.9 yards per play to their opponents, which ranks dead last in the league. Offensively, Tampa Bay is gaining 7.2 YPP, which is tied with the Rams for the best in the league. I don't anticipate that we see this drop to 48 where my buy point would be for a regular-sized bet, but at 49.5, it is a smaller edge worth a smaller bet.
Pick: Over 49.5
Sharp: Cleveland's passing offense is an inexplicable conundrum. Baker Mayfield seemed to have time to throw on multiple occasions when he reached the back of his drop, but the ball wasn't coming out. Mayfield, with a gimpy ankle, was sacked multiple times last week. After facing three tough defenses in their last four games (Jets, Ravens and Chargers) the Browns get the NFL's worst defense in Tampa Bay. But with the Bucs firing their DC, how much better will the defense look this week?
The Browns are suddenly extremely thin at middle linebacker, losing Joe Schobert and his backup, James Burgess, to injury. The Buccaneers offense has been impressive even in defeat, with the exception of the 48-10 loss in Chicago. Tampa Bay's rushing attack came alive against the Falcons last week, with Peyton Barber averaging 6.3 YPC.
Pick: Pass
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5)
Total: 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent picked Philadelphia
Johnson: The Eagles finally looked like defending Super Bowl champions, right after Giants money flooded the market ahead of the Thursday night game to drive the line all the way down to Philadelphia -1. It also is fair to say that the Giants just looked like the Giants. I didn't understand the move at all and eventually had to bet the Eagles on Thursday at that price.
I had somebody message me Sunday night and ask why Philadelphia was only laying -4 at home to the Panthers. I wouldn't get caught up in Carolina's final score against Washington too much. My projection for this game is actually right at the current 4.5-point spread, so there isn't any value backing the Eagles in Week 7. I will definitely be looking for opportunities in future weeks, though, to back Philadelphia if the market strongly disagrees (like in Week 6).
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Eagles seem like they could have turned a corner off of a mini-bye, which saw them dominate the Giants on the road. Carson Wentz looks incredible, Alshon Jeffrey is back and healthy and they got RB Corey Clementback last week. There are some concerns about the offense -- it has faced the NFL's easiest schedule of pass defenses and pass rushes -- but Carolina's defense still ranks below league average in both metrics, and at home, Wentz should be able to stay efficient.
Another highly interesting matchup in this game is Philadelphia's run defense versus the NFL's most run-heavy team. The Eagles' strength defensively is their run defense, but they have faced the NFL's easiest schedule of run offenses so far this season. Carolina's run offense ranks No. 3 in the league, by far the most difficult the Eagles have faced. The Eagles also struggled tremendously to contain Marcus Mariota just three weeks ago, giving up a 60 percent success rate on the ground and 4.6 YPC.
Pick: Pass
Detroit Lions (-3) at Miami Dolphins
Total: 47
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Miami
Johnson: The Dolphins are going to be without Ryan Tannehill again here in Week 7. Miami closed as seven-point underdogs after he was scratched with an injury this past Sunday.
The question ultimately becomes how much stock you put into Brock Osweilerand the Dolphins' performance in Week 6. They gained 541 yards against one of the better defenses in the NFL despite turning the ball over three times. But was this simply a byproduct of Chicago planning for Tannehill all week long? Should it really matter if it's a downgrade at the quarterback position? Dare I ask if it even is a downgrade at the quarterback position?
There isn't a lot of concrete data that can come from one game and certainly not any that is worth wagering money on. This is just a complete pass for me at the current number, since it generally lines up with my Osweiler-under-center line of Lions -2.1 and a total of 46.2.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: After facing two teams that rank in the top 10 in pass rush right before their bye, the Lions face the Dolphins and their 29th-ranked pass rush, which just gave up 10.2 YPA to Trubisky. The Lions have an edge in third down offense, as the Dolphins rank 30th in that category. If Matthew Stafford has enough time, even on the road in Miami, he should be able to utilize his weapons and produce offensively.
The Dolphins are 3-0 at home so far this season and will face a Detroit defense that is No. 28 against the pass and No. 27 against the run. Despite playing bad defenses of the Raiders and Broncos, the Lions defense still ranks as the worst overall defense Miami has faced this year. Detroit's speed in the secondary will be put to the test, and I think the Dolphins' team speed will be difficult for the Lions defense to match.
Lean: Dolphins +3
New England Patriots (-3) at Chicago Bears
Total: 49.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 74 percent picked New England
Johnson: The Patriots opened as 2.5-point favorites in Chicago this Sunday and immediately moved to -3.5 at most shops. My number for this matchup is New England -3.7, so I was not too surprised; but it has since gone back to the key number of -3.
I mentioned last week that I didn't understand the love for the Bears going into the Miami game. The Dolphins had a hoard of injury issues, including a Tannehill scratch before the game, but the Bears wound up closing as staggering seven-point road favorites. Miami won the game outright. I might still be lower on Chicago than the majority of the market, and I will be interested in seeing where this number closes, but I won't be getting involved and making a bet.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: In a compelling Sunday early game, Chicago looks to right the ship against perhaps the NFL's best team. The Bears just allowed Brock Osweiler to throw for 380 yards at 8.6 yards per attempt and now must face Tom Brady. The Bears offense performed extremely well on the road in Miami, with Mitchell Trubisky averaging 10.2 YPA and the run game gaining 5.3 YPC.
The Patriots are one of the best offenses in the NFL, but haven't faced a difficult schedule of defenses, particularly against the pass. Chicago stills rank as the NFL's best, and New England has played just one top-10 pass defense and lost (Jaguars), albeit without Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman. I look for a highly competitive game, one in which the Bears may outperform expectations.
Lean: Bears +3
Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts(-7.5)
Total: 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 54 percent picked Indianapolis
Johnson: The Colts are the first leg of a two-team, six-point teaser I bet at -110 this week in the NFL. Josh Allen sustained an injury against Houston last week, and Derek Anderson -- yes, that Derek Anderson -- is getting the nod to start in Indianapolis.
I had mentioned before the season that the drop-off from any quarterback to backup Nathan Peterman in Buffalo was worth roughly three points. This was important because the Bills had announced Peterman as the starter for their Week 1 matchup in Baltimore. My number for this game would otherwise be Indianapolis -6.1. Adjusted for Peterman, I project this at -9.1.
Well, where does Anderson fall? Anderson threw eight times in 2017, he played in two games in 2016 (two touchdowns and four interceptions) and threw six times in 2015. I'm sure Buffalo plans to play game control and trusts that Anderson will limit turnovers, but this can't end well very often for the Bills.
If Andrew Luck & Co. aren't able to beat the ghost of Derek Anderson at home by two or more points, then so be it. This is going to be a profitable option for basic strategy teaser anyway, and I tied it with the Cowboys in their game against the Redskins, which I will write about below.
Pick: Colts -1.5 in a teaser with Cowboys +8
Sharp: The Bills turned around their 1-3 start with a close win and a close loss the last two weeks against weaker passing offenses (Titans and Texans) and now get another AFC South team with a slightly impotent passing offense. Indianapolis is the most pass-heavy team in the NFL but has little efficiency to show for it, ranking 29th in yards per attempt and 31st in explosive passing. The Colts will get T.Y. Hilton back this week but are still without Jack Doyle and lost two more WRs last week (Ryan Grant and Marcus Johnson).
The Bills offense is horrendous and ranks last in most every passing category. They are better running the ball, but that just so happens to be the strength of the Colts defense (No. 8 versus the run). The insertion of Derek Anderson at QB is a wild card and there is no chance I'll bet on him until I see how he digests the offense. Still, it's impossible for me to lay this number with a Colts team that can't run the ball to help close out a multi-score lead in the fourth quarter.
Pick: Pass
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Jacksonville
Johnson: I honestly don't know what is going on in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are 3-3 and certainly have as good of a shot to win the AFC South as anybody going forward. But these results are mind-boggling. The Jaguars lost 9-6 at home to the Titans in Week 3, scored just 14 points against a Kansas City defense that has otherwise given up 31.6 points per game and only managed to get one touchdown in Dallas this past Sunday.
So it must be the lack of running game, right? Leonard Fournette has been out for four games, and their offense is suffering. Nope. The Jaguars are actually averaging 4.4 yards per carry, which ranks 11th in the NFL (4.3 last season). So Blake Bortles and the passing game are struggling as compared to last season? They have actually been equally as efficient as last year, gaining 6.8 yards per pass attempt in both seasons. Well, the defense must not be nearly as good! Actually, the D ranks second in the NFL, giving up just 4.9 yards per play; it gave up 4.8 YPP last year.
The only real change has been the increase in turnovers. Jacksonville is giving the ball away 2.3 times per game so far in 2018 as compared to just 1.2 turnovers per game a year ago. Turnovers are extremely high-variance. It is going to be tough for me to bet confidently on Jaguars games until we see Jacksonville settle down some.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Following back-to-back road losses, the Jaguars and Bortles head home to face the Texans pass defense, which deserves to be the focal point of the Jacksonville offense. Houston ranks No. 2 against the run, but 22nd against the pass (versus the NFL's easiest schedule of pass offenses), and the Jaguars haven't been running often without Fournette. Jacksonville is 2-1 at home, defeating two pass defenses that were better than the Texans (Patriots and Jets), but doesn't have strong weapons in the passing game and oddly seems to be running its pass offense through Donte Moncrief.
Houston's weakness offensively is its pass protection, which ranks 30th despite playing a very easy schedule of pass rushes. The Jaguars are not the "Sacksonville" bunch from 2017, as they rank just No. 17 in pass rush efficiency, and actually lost their two games against bottom-10 pass pro offenses (Cowboys and Titans).
Pick: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Total: 50
PickCenter public consensus pick: 57 percent picked New Orleans
Johnson: The Ravens are coming off of an impressive 21-0 shutout victory at Tennessee (sorry, Titans fans, I am pretty sure I jinxed your team after talking up Matt LaFleur and the potential this offense had a few weeks ago). The Saints had their bye week after Monday Night Football's Drew Brees celebration game, during which they dominated the Redskins 43-19. It is pretty nice timing for New Orleans to get the extra week of preparation and time to refocus after all of the publicity the team drew because the all-time passing record was set by Brees. I expect a 100 percent Saints team here in Week 7.
After the Bengals' loss to the Steelers, the Ravens are now tied atop the AFC North standings. Cincinnati still holds the tiebreaker, but Baltimore will have a shot to get that back when it hosts the Bengals on Nov. 18. This week is a big one for Baltimore too, because the Ravens' schedule isn't pretty. Following the game with the Saints, Baltimore travels to Carolina to take on the Panthers, then has back-to-back divisional tilts against the Steelers and Bengals. The Raiders come up next on the schedule, but games at Atlanta and Kansas City ultimately make six of these next seven contests toss-ups.
This week's matchup is a battle of opposing strengths and weaknesses. The Ravens still hold the league's top spot defensively, giving up just 4.4 YPP to opponents, while the Saints rank 27th. Offensively, New Orleans ranks fifth in the NFL (6.5 YPP) and Baltimore 28th. What is going to give? My numbers actually make the Saints a small favorite. At +2.5, I would generally be looking to bet this discrepancy, but I am worried about Brees going up against the league's best defense in 14 mph projected winds outside of his comfort zone in the Superdome.
This will likely be a pass for me, which, to be completely honest, is kind of nice from time to time as a bettor. Rather than sweat out a wager on the game, I will be sitting back and enjoying a football game between two teams with contrasting styles and both vying for divisional crowns in extremely competitive divisions. Sounds good to me.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: We haven't see New Orleans since the Brees coronation game Monday night against the Redskins, but what we do know is the bye isn't the most ideal thing for an offense that was rolling. The last two times the Saints have played on the road after a bye, they are 0-2; when the game is home off a bye, they are 2-0. This is also the first time New Orleans will face a top-10 defense on the road. They played just one other top-10 defense (Browns) at home and nearly lost. The other defenses they faced: the 32nd-ranked Buccaneers, 31st-ranked Falcons, 27th-ranked Giants and 23rd-ranked Redskins. The Ravens, with a healthy Jimmy Smith and the No. 3 run defense, should give the Saints all they can handle.
The Saints defense is still extremely problematic against the pass, ranking 30th in efficiency and 29th in QB hit rate. Quietly the Ravens pass offense ranks No. 7 and that has come against the third-toughest slate of pass defenses. Getting a bottom-three pass defense at home should be music to Joe Flacco's ears. Only the Eagles target the tight ends more out of 12 personnel than the Ravens, and the Saints are allowing a 75 percent success rate to TE-targets from 12 personnel.
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-1.5)
Total: 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 50 percent picked Dallas
Johnson: The Redskins-Panthers game this past Sunday flew under the radar. It wasn't a particularly exciting matchup to begin with, and with a 17-6 Redskins lead at halftime it was generally pretty boring. We want to look past the boring, however, and find details that can help us in our betting process.
The Redskins ultimately won 23-17, despite being outgained by 1.63 yards every time these teams lined up and ran a play. The difference was the three Panthers turnovers, including two fumbles from rookie wide receiver DJ Moore (who had two total fumbles in his three years at Maryland). This came just one week after New Orleans embarrassed Washington.
The jury is still out on the Redskins, and I think we are seeing a bit of an inflated number here in Week 7, as they're two-point home favorites against the Cowboys. This is a great spot to use Dallas +8 in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 in a game with a low total and points expected to come at a premium.
Pick: Cowboys +8 in a teaser with Colts -1.5.
Sharp: Last week's Redskins victory over the Panthers was one of the more fraudulent wins of the week. Washington averaged just 3.8 yards per pass play and posted a 36 percent success rate on passes, while Carolina was successful on 51 percent of passes and outgained Washington by 1.7 yards per play. But the Panthers turned the ball over three times and recorded zero takeaways in a low-possession game (neither team had more than 11 drives). The Cowboys are the third-most run-heavy team, which is the weakness of the Redskins defense (30th defending the run).
When the Redskins have the ball, they will have to contend with a highly underrated pass rush for the Cowboys, which could put Alex Smith under pressure. Washington wants to run the ball, but Dallas owns the No. 5-ranked run defense. The Redskins have played two top-10 run defenses and were unable to mount rushing attacks in either game (Colts and Saints), losing both by large margins. Dallas also returns LB Sean Lee.
Pick: Cowboys +1
Los Angeles Rams (-10) at San Francisco 49ers
Total: 52.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Los Angeles
Johnson: I made a bet on the over 52 in the Week 7 matchup between the Rams and the 49ers. My number is 54.7, which is almost an entire three points of disagreement (my usual trigger to look into making a play on a total in the NFL). Offensively, from a scheming perspective, these are two of the brightest young minds in the game in Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan. The Rams are tied for the league's most efficient offense, and the 49ers rank ninth despite a hoard of injuries including QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Both teams actually rank in the bottom half in the league defensively, so everything is lining up to follow through with betting my edge on the over.
There is some minor wind that is projected to present during the game Sunday, but it ultimately isn't enough to keep me away from making this bet. In fact, if both the Rams and 49ers were to make a point of running the ball, we would be watching the two most efficient rushing attacks in the NFL going at it. Five teams average 5.1 yards per rushing attempt on the ground this year, and the Rams and 49ers are two of them. The Rams even rank 28th against the run defensively, so I anticipate the 49ers will be able to hang around in this game and keep up with the vaunted McVay offense.
Pick: Over 52
Sharp: The Rams are more than capable of running over the 49ers in this spot, but the question is: Is it a money-making proposition to lay double digits on the road, even with a team as good as Los Angeles? The Cardinals won in San Francisco by double digits, but that game was decided by a plus-5 turnover edge for the Cardinals. Despite playing the Chargers and Packers, the C.J. Beathard-led 49ers lost by margins of 2 and 3 points, respectively, with both games on the road.
The Rams have the NFL's best offense and the 49ers' defense ranks in the bottom 10, and is at its worst defending in the red zone. This means to have a shot, San Francisco is going to need to score offensively. The Rams' defense has allowed 20-plus points in its past four games and hasn't won by more than seven points during that stretch. Matt Breida has been running tremendously and we should expect now-healthy Marquise Goodwin to get loose in the Los Angeles secondary more than once.
Lean: 49ers +10
