MistaFlava's College Football Week 9 ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

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2018 MistaFlava's CFB Record: 32-18 ATS (+253.00 Units)

Went 3-6 ATS last week, my worst week of the season and a couple of bad beats but it's time to bounce back hit some winners in Week 9. LETS GO!


Good luck to everyone

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Tuesday, October 23



Troy Trojans -10.5 (10 Units)

Nothing like some Tuesday night college football action and it should be a good one. Not many people know this because nobody follows these two programs but this is a rivalry that is very recent and very new and the teams started playing for some kind of WWE looking belt back in 2015. Troy comes into this game off their worst loss of the season, a 22-16 loss against Liberty as a -12 point home favorite. Can you say bounce back time? It's funny because this is Troy's third true road game of the season and they have been badly outyarded in both road games at UL Monroe and Nebraska but they came away with wins anyways at both beating the Warhakws 35-27 (outyarded by 21 total yards) and beating Nebraska 24-19 (outyarded by 111 total yards). Now this is a game where they should win the yardage battle and win the game big. The Troy offense is averaging 32.7 points per game their last three games on a whopping 7.3 yards per play and 438 total yards of offense (that is 2.1 yards per play and 95 total yards per game more than South Alabama during that time span). The South Alabama defense is brutal and has allowed 35.7 points per game in their last three on 6.7 yards per play. They cannot stop the run for their lives allowing 242.7 rushing yards per game and 6.0 yards per carry their last three while Troy comes into this averaging 250.7 rushing yards per game on 7.0 yards per carry in those games. In the air protection has been an issue for Troy allowing 7 sacks their last three games but South Alabama has no pass rush to speak of, they force almost no turnovers and they allow huge plays both in the air and on the ground. Troy's offense will roll in this one.

The South Alabama Jaguars are 2-5 SU and 3-3 ATS on the season but they are coming off their best game of the season, a 45-7 win over Alcorn State (FCS opponent) marking only the second time this season the managed to outyard an opponent in a game and the first since their second win of the season over Texas State earlier in the year. I know South Bama played Lousiana Tech tough here earlier this season but right now they have absolutely nothing going for them. Their defense has been shredded to pieces by every single opponent they have faced and their offense has stalled averaging only 21.7 points per game their last three games and averaging only 343.3 total yards of offense and 5.2 yards per play in those games. You can try to run against Troy's defense but it won't work as they have allowed only 2.7 yards per carry in their last three games despite being run on 44.7 times per game. That's a problem for South Alabama because they run 39.3 running plays to 27.0 passing plays in their last three games. The Trojans do give up yards in the air but they have a relentless D-Line and pass rush that has 13 sacks in their last three games to go with the 2 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries by this defense as a unit. This defense is going to be hyped up for this one, they will make some plays and score on turnovers.

The rivalry is not a known one but we are talking about two teams from Alabama going at it in some Tuesday Night Lights. Troy is coming off an embarrassing loss last weekend and will be even more hyped up to play well. TROY COMES INTO THIS GAME 6-0 ATS IN THEIR LAST SIX TUESDAY NIGHT GAMES and they are one of the best spread teams in college football the last 12 months going 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games. They are also 7-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games versus conference opponents. South Alabama has been good at home this season but that's about it. They are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a straight up win (beat Alcorn State last time out) and they are 8-23-1 ATS in their last 32 games versus conference opponents. Everyone knows how tough South Alabama plays Troy most of the time but the Road Team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings and Troy is playing in a bounce back spot. I'm going Trojans to win big.

Trend of the Game: Troy is 6-0 ATS in their last six Tuesday Night Games.


Troy 38, South Alabama 16





more to come...
 
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Flava you not worried about Troy losing their starting QB? He looked lethargic on his debut.

I would think Troy would just pound the ball tonight.
 

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On this as well. Let's cash it!
 

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Good start to the week and pretty damn close on the actual score! Congrats to all winners.
 

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Flava you not worried about Troy losing their starting QB? He looked lethargic on his debut.

I would think Troy would just pound the ball tonight.


Sorry just saw this now. Was never a concern because of the strength of Troy's running game and the weakness of South Alabam's run defense. Even tonight I think the runs were something like 35 to 17 pass attempts. That's how this offense (which can somehow look bad at times) rolls.
 
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Sorry just saw this now. Was never a concern because of the strength of Troy's running game and the weakness of South Alabam's run defense. Even tonight I think the runs were something like 35 to 17 pass attempts. That's how this offense (which can somehow look bad at times) rolls.

I second guessed myself and ended up parlaying Troy ML with the Red Sox ML.

Profitable night nonetheless.

Good work bud.
 

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u nailed it MF... well done

** had a small teaser just for action last night ... Troy -5 and Under 59.5... cant believe i hit it after they scored 48 in the first half..!!!... only 7 pts in the whole 2nd half!! crazy... keep up the great work in CFB....
 

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Utah Utes -10.5 (10 Units)

Man I love betting on this team. The oddsmakers don't seem to respect them enough week in and week out and that's why they have 4 ATS wins on the season and come into this game 5-2 SU on the year. The Utes had a bit of a rough patch at the end of September but they have since gone 3-0 with wins at Stanford and at home versus Arizona and USC. The Utes outyarded USC and Arizona by a combined 506 total yards in those two games and they have won their last two games at UCLA. In their last three games the Utes are averaging 41.0 points per game on 485.7 total yards of offense per game for 6.8 yards per play. This is a serious offense and they are facing a UCLA defense that, although improved from earlier this season, is still allowing 5.7 yards per play and 430.7 total yards per game in their last three games. Utah is a run first offense and they are damn good at running the ball. HUGE PROBLEM for UCLA in this one as the Bruins allow 205.7 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry their last three games and Utah, who run 46.7 times per game compared to throwing 24.3 times per game in their last three, come in averaging 217.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry in those games. In the air the Utes average 11.0 yards per pass attempt their last three games the only success UCLA has defensively is their ability to force turnovers (9 in last three games) but Utah has thrown 1 interception and fumbled two times in their last three games combined. Utes roll!

The UCLA Bruins under Chip Kelly have been straight garbage and they are 2-5 SU coming into this game. Out of their seven games they have outyarded their opponents only two times. Cincinnati by 2 total yards (lost 26-17 anyways) and California by 38 total yards in their one and only good game of the season. Other than the Bruins have been pretty bad and outyarded by totals of 102 (Oklahoma), 156 (Fresno State), 188 (Colorado), 40 (Washington) and 60 (Arizona). That's not good considering Utah have a TOP 50 ranked offense and are the #1 run defense in the Country, the #7 total yards against defense in the Country and 15th in Points allowed. The Bruins, much like Utah, are also a run-first offense as they average 43 runs per game and 29.3 pass attempts in their last three games. The Bruins in those games average 4.0 yards per carry but good luck running on the top ranked run defense in the Country who allow only 62.3 rushing yards per game on 2.1 yards per carry their last three games. This means UCLA has to throw the ball and I have to say their QB's have been pretty good but Utah's pass D is relentless. They have 4 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and 11 sacks in their last three games and they will make some plays in this game. UCLA has thrown 4 interceptions at home and fumbled 3 times this season so the Utes should have plenty of possessions in this game. UCLA won't be able to run the ball and that's something they are absolutely not used to. It's a problem.

The last two meetings here in Los Angeles were close but the Utes won both as an underdog. Now they come in as a favorite with one of their best teams in years. The ROAD TEAM is actually 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and Utah has covered the spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings. I went back and looked at how these schools play on Friday nights and Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last four while UCLA is 1-4 ATS in their last five. Interesting. USC ran for only 73 yards on the Utes and I went back to check the last few times Utah allowed less than 100 rushing yards in a game and they are 16-5 ATS in their next game the last 21 times. Wow! UCLA comes into this game 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a straight up win and they are only 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. That says it all. Utah wins this big.

Trend of the Game: UCLA is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.


Utah 45, UCLA 10





more to come...
 

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Mr. Flava...…..missed you play tonight...….looking forward to your Sat./weekend thought's and write ups...…….continued success with this weeks action...….indy
 

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Utah Utes -10.5 (10 Units)

Man I love betting on this team. The oddsmakers don't seem to respect them enough week in and week out and that's why they have 4 ATS wins on the season and come into this game 5-2 SU on the year. The Utes had a bit of a rough patch at the end of September but they have since gone 3-0 with wins at Stanford and at home versus Arizona and USC. The Utes outyarded USC and Arizona by a combined 506 total yards in those two games and they have won their last two games at UCLA. In their last three games the Utes are averaging 41.0 points per game on 485.7 total yards of offense per game for 6.8 yards per play. This is a serious offense and they are facing a UCLA defense that, although improved from earlier this season, is still allowing 5.7 yards per play and 430.7 total yards per game in their last three games. Utah is a run first offense and they are damn good at running the ball. HUGE PROBLEM for UCLA in this one as the Bruins allow 205.7 rushing yards per game on 4.9 yards per carry their last three games and Utah, who run 46.7 times per game compared to throwing 24.3 times per game in their last three, come in averaging 217.3 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry in those games. In the air the Utes average 11.0 yards per pass attempt their last three games the only success UCLA has defensively is their ability to force turnovers (9 in last three games) but Utah has thrown 1 interception and fumbled two times in their last three games combined. Utes roll!

The UCLA Bruins under Chip Kelly have been straight garbage and they are 2-5 SU coming into this game. Out of their seven games they have outyarded their opponents only two times. Cincinnati by 2 total yards (lost 26-17 anyways) and California by 38 total yards in their one and only good game of the season. Other than the Bruins have been pretty bad and outyarded by totals of 102 (Oklahoma), 156 (Fresno State), 188 (Colorado), 40 (Washington) and 60 (Arizona). That's not good considering Utah have a TOP 50 ranked offense and are the #1 run defense in the Country, the #7 total yards against defense in the Country and 15th in Points allowed. The Bruins, much like Utah, are also a run-first offense as they average 43 runs per game and 29.3 pass attempts in their last three games. The Bruins in those games average 4.0 yards per carry but good luck running on the top ranked run defense in the Country who allow only 62.3 rushing yards per game on 2.1 yards per carry their last three games. This means UCLA has to throw the ball and I have to say their QB's have been pretty good but Utah's pass D is relentless. They have 4 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries and 11 sacks in their last three games and they will make some plays in this game. UCLA has thrown 4 interceptions at home and fumbled 3 times this season so the Utes should have plenty of possessions in this game. UCLA won't be able to run the ball and that's something they are absolutely not used to. It's a problem.

The last two meetings here in Los Angeles were close but the Utes won both as an underdog. Now they come in as a favorite with one of their best teams in years. The ROAD TEAM is actually 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and Utah has covered the spread in 6 of the last 8 meetings. I went back and looked at how these schools play on Friday nights and Utah is 4-0 ATS in their last four while UCLA is 1-4 ATS in their last five. Interesting. USC ran for only 73 yards on the Utes and I went back to check the last few times Utah allowed less than 100 rushing yards in a game and they are 16-5 ATS in their next game the last 21 times. Wow! UCLA comes into this game 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games coming off a straight up win and they are only 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. That says it all. Utah wins this big.

Trend of the Game: UCLA is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.


Utah 45, UCLA 10





more to come...
Thanks for posting!
 

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Boom. And almost the exact score!! Well done MF
 

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Off to a very good start to the week hitting both week night games and coming pretty damn close on the scores. Will be posting throughout the day Saturday, good luck to everyone!
 

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Arkansas Razorbacks +1 (10 Units)

Question one for most will be "what the hell are ya doin?" betting on a 2-6 SU Arkansas team? Well Vanderbilt is not much better at 3-5 SU and both teams have had similar spread results so far in 2018. What really strikes me here is how poorly Vanderbilt have played their last 5 games overall. Sure they stayed close in Kentucky last week and covered +10.5 road spread but they have been outyarded 4 of those 5 games and even in the game where they outyarded their opponent (by 180) they still barely beat Tennessee State (FCS) at home. Aside from Kentucky last week, every single SEC opponent has outyarded the Commodores by 200+ yards. Not good. This is an offense that can typically move the ball but on the road this season they average only 12.3 points per game on 341.7 total yards of offense and 5.6 yards per play. It's not a secret the Arkansas defense stinks but they do have some playmakers hence their 9 turnovers forced in five home games this season and 12 sacks at home. Vanderbilt struggles to run the ball pretty badly (3.4 yards per carry on the road and 3.8 yards per carry their last three games) which will make them one dimensional. Again, not good seeing how they have completed only 55.1% of their passes the last three games. There will be yards but there will be big time mistakes and stalled drives too.

The Arkansas Razorbacks might go for broke in this one in search of their second consecutive win. Believe it or not the Razorbacks are coming off a 23-0 home shutout win over Tulsa last week as a -7.5 point home favorite and they will keep the momentum going in this one. That was Arkansas' first win since Week 1 of the season when they beat an FCS opponent at home and pushed on the -35 home favorite spread. Despite the brutal 2-6 SU record they have outyarded 4 of their 8 opponents this season and even outyarded Auburn in their blowout loss on the road earlier this season. Unlike Vanderbilt, this offense is rolling right now and they come in averaging 29.0 points per game their last three games on 402.7 total yards per game and 5.7 yards per play. Vanderbilt's defense has been absolutely trashed three weeks in a row allowing 30.7 points per game, 478 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. Unlike Vanderbilt, Arkansas can actually run the ball which will be the difference for me in this game as the Razorbacks average 222.3 rushing yards per game their last three games on 5.1 yards per carry and face a Vanderbilt defense that has been run on 150 total times the last three weeks at a clip of 263.7 rushing yards allowed per game on a crazy 5.3 yards per carry. The Arkansas offensive line has been great the last three games allowing only 2 QB sacks total. Vanderbilt is allowing 9.3 yards per pass attempt their last three games so expect some big plays from this Arkansas offense today. I also love that they average only 3.3 penalties per game their last three games, Vanderbilt averages 6.3 in that same time span.

These two schools don't meet very often (it's been since 2011) but Arkansas has won the last three (2006, 2010 and 2011) and they come into this game on a 4-0 ATS run. They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games believe it or not and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games dating back to the 2017 season. Consistency has been the biggest issue with the Razorbacks and they will end those issues today by recording their second straight win of the season. As for SEC Conference play, Vanderbilt has covered only 2 of their last 12 conference games. In their loss to Kentucky last weekend they had only 68 rushing yards total so I went back and look at following game performances after rushing for less than 100 yards and Vanderbilt is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games after rushing for less than 100. WOW! They are also only 1-6 ATS in their last seven games off a game where they score less than 20 points (scored only 7 at Kentucky). Chad Morris gets his first SEC win today.

Trend of the Game: Arkansas is 5-1 ATS in their last six SEC Conference games.


Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 23





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Charlotte 49ers +7 (10 Units)

I'm guessing this line is "low" according to some cappers because Southern Miss outyarded UTSA at home last week by a whopping 313 total yards. Having said that, the Golden Eagles managed to win by only 10 points as a -16.5 point home favorite. This is only the third true road game of the season for Southern Miss and they have not been good in either so far being outyarded at both North Texas and Auburn and scoring a total of only 20 points. Charlotte is nothing like either one of those two schools but the 49ers defense has been playing well the last three games allowing only 21.0 points per game on 243.3 total yards of offense and only 4.6 yards per play. That could be an issue for a Southern Miss offense averaging 15.7 points per game their last three games on 5.2 yards per play. It's been next to impossible to run on Charlotte's defensive line who are allowing only 63.7 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry their last three games. Souther Miss doesn't have a problem throwing the ball, they actually do more throwing than running and they do put up some numbers (267 passing yards per game in their last three) but they can't stop turning the ball over with 4 interceptions and 4 lost fumbles in their last three games combined. Charlotte's secondary is nothing to write home about but this defense has forced 5 turnovers in their last three games and that's a big problem for Southern Miss. They will get some yards but they will also turn the ball over.

Not too much is know about the Charlotte 49ers since they've only been in top flight NCAA Football for a few years now but considering they were 1-11 SU in 2017, the fact that they have 3 wins already this year tells you a lot about the improvements of this team. So despite being blown out of the water at Southern Miss last November, this is a completely different Charlotte team and they are at home now. Just look at the numbers. So far this season in their 7 games played, Charlotte have outyarded 5 of their opponents and in their last two games combined they have outyarded their opponents by a total of 407 yards. Their only really bad game of the season was at Appalachian State but otherwise their three wins in 2018 have all been at home and they have a chance in this one. The offense is averaging 27.8 points per home game this season on 5.2 yards per play (Southern Miss average 4.6 yards per play on the road) and the Southern Miss defense has allowed 5.7 yards per play and 27 points per game away from home. Charlotte is pretty consistent with the run averaging 46.5 running plays per game at home this season but Southern Miss has always been tough to run on so throwing the ball will be what wins this game. The Golden Eagles allow 7.6 yards per pass attempt their last three games, they have only 5 QB sacks in those games combined and 0 interceptions. The Charlotte QBs have thrown only 1 interceptions in their last three games and are averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt so the big plays in the air will be there when it matters as Southern Miss continues to struggle with QB pressure and big plays downfield.

The 2018 version of Charlotte looks a lot more like the 2016 version of the team that not only won more than a game on the season (unlike 2017) but also went to Southern Miss as a +19.5 point underdog and beat the Golden Eagles by 11 points on the road as a dog. Impressive stuff. Go back and look at Charlotte's performances and record at home and you will see that the 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games dating back to last season and they are also 4-1 ATS in their last five Conference games. The 49ers scored only 13 points at Middle Tennessee last week (on the road) so I went back and looked at the last few times they scored less than 20 points in a game and they ended up going 5-1 ATS in their following games the last six times. Southern Miss has always been a rocky play in October where they have covered the spread in only 3 of their last 11 games dating back to a few seasons ago. I think the spread is way too high considering how Southern Miss has played on the road and considering Charlotte beat them two seasons ago on the road and now they play them at home where they are very good. Upset potential here!

Trend of the Game: Charlotte is 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.


Charlotte 24, Southern Miss 23






more to come...
 

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