NFL week 8

powerz · Oct 27, 2018

Last week 5-7 -701
YTD 29-30 +108

There was not to many situations to point out heading into Week 8 . I think the public will have a decent day. Here is a Unique angle I have uncovered Super contest teams that have a line lower in the SC than Friday AM are 76% ats after week 7.

So to recap that ..... West Gate post NE @ -13.5 but by Friday AM they are -14 ...Lean NE

I think backing the following teams may lead to $$$..RAM, EAGLE, BEAR, COLT .....FADE SKINS, BENGAL

NO bet yet will be back in the AM with Wagers but here are my RX SC Plays

BEAR , PAT, COLT, RAM, BUCC

GL guys

Powerz

indiana · Oct 27, 2018

PWZ......BOL with your contest plays buddy.....looking forward to your Sun. thought's...….indy

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

THANKS INDY

HEre is an article about Wind from PINNACLE

15 mph or greater would appear to be the point at which wind becomes a significant and possibly under exposed factor.

This single game mirrors a more general trend that is especially noteworthy when average wind speed attains 20 mph or greater. In the 50 or so such games, average totals were set on the low side at 38.5, but actual match totals averaged even lower at 35.3 and consequently under bets were successful in 64.6% of games.Historically, wind speed would appear to be a neglected factor when points totals are set. Bettors should note that there appears to be a significant relationship between high wind speed and an increasing tendency for actual match totals to not only decrease, but to also go under the quoted totals.The data since 2003 can be used to find the relationship between average wind speed and the likelihood that the actual game total will fall below the quoted total.And the best predicted fit from the data for the strike rate of games going under the quoted total when the average wind speed is 15 mph is 54.5%. The percentage of unders then remains consistently above this figure as winds strengthen even more. For example, at average speeds of 17 mph, the likelihood of the match total going under the quote rises to 55.6% and hits 60% at 25 mph.So once again, 15 mph or greater would appear to be the point at which wind becomes a significant and possibly under exposed factor and assuming totals continue to be quoted in a similar way in the future, bettors are provided with an opportunity to gain an edge.Weather is likely to be an under represented factor when setting and betting on points totals lines, especially when markets open and develop early in the week, when weather patterns may be unreliable or partially ignored.Game day weather and longer term forecasts can be found at such sites as NFL Weather, although as with any prediction, there will still be a degree of uncertainty associated with these forecasts.However, from past evidence, weather conditions may provide a valuable edge when betting on game totals, with wind speed an obvious, but by no means the only weather related factor to consider in such markets.

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

TRY to post the bears game should see windy in excess of 15 mph

HacheMan · Oct 28, 2018

Best of luck powerz

3pointdog · Oct 28, 2018

Hey buddy. Good luck today

PS no Mack for the bears. Out today for his ankle.

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

Thanks HACHE

Thanks 3PD.....Still like the bears

BEAR 2' / U49 $186 to win $155
TAMPA +4.5 199 / 150
BROWN +8.5 164 / 150
STEELER U48 162/150

GL GUYS

Betallsports · Oct 28, 2018

BOL ! Buddy

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

I really like the rams -7.5 +110 at PINNY going to bet game the live tho.

will post during the game

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

Rams -7 -122 $610 / $500

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

Saint ML -137 $411 / $300

3pointdog · Oct 28, 2018

powerz said:
Saint ML -137 $411 / $300

like it but let’s bring home this Rams game first....!!! Come on now

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

Chalking that up as loser they had a 10 point lead and they let them off the hook

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

3pointdog · Oct 28, 2018

I Was hoping Gurley would walk in.. damn. So close

powerz · Oct 28, 2018

I know right kind of weird that he did that - TV crew says b/c he is classy but still pad you stats.

Adding VIKES +9.5 U 61 $130/100

brendanjack · Oct 28, 2018

3pointdog said:
I Was hoping Gurley would walk in.. damn. So close

No doubt any other player would have scored talk about protecting your team . That team is darn good even on a bad day

powerz · Oct 29, 2018

powerz said:
Last week 5-7 -701
YTD 29-30 +108

There was not to many situations to point out heading into Week 8 . I think the public will have a decent day. Here is a Unique angle I have uncovered Super contest teams that have a line lower in the SC than Friday AM are 76% ats after week 7.

So to recap that ..... West Gate post NE @ -13.5 but by Friday AM they are -14 ...Lean NE

I think backing the following teams may lead to $$$..RAM, EAGLE, BEAR, COLT .....FADE SKINS, BENGAL 4-2

NO bet yet will be back in the AM with Wagers but here are my RX SC Plays

BEAR , PAT, COLT, RAM, BUCC 3-1 ...Pats Pending

GL guys

Powerz

So far 3-5 -461 for the week but if I take that RAMS game out I would be okay ....Anyways the last two weeks I have done some work on opening lines vs spring lines and adjusting for Power ratings moves....interesting stuff that I will speak about in Week 9 thread but this week teams that had a value of greater than 2 went 4-1 more to come.

If you had a rough week don't feel bad the public went 10-3 so far this week the top 5 picks in SC went 5-0.

I will have a play tonight will be back around 5 pm to post

powerz · Oct 29, 2018

The Pats were my strongest play of the week in the SC ...All indicators on Friday said go... so not backing down.

NEW ENGLAND -13.5 -108 $648 to win $600

Hope for lots of points over 45 please!