[h=1]Best bets for Patriots-Bills[/h]
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
[h=3]New England Patriots (-13.5) at Buffalo Bills[/h]Total: 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent picked New England
Johnson: It looks like Derek Anderson will be under center for the time being in Buffalo, so my recommendation is to proceed with caution but not automatically look to bet against the Bills. On Monday night, they are getting the Patriots at home and the market currently sits +14 (my projection comes in at +12.2). Buffalo still fields the fourth-best defense in the league, and there certainly should never be teams that you look to bet on or fade blindly because of a result of a single game.
I am waiting patiently before I jump in and back the Bills. This opened at +13 and New England has taken the money to this point. A +14.5 would be fantastic, but if it never pops +14s will ultimately be a pass for me. I know it sounds extra particular in these cases: Why would you bet +14.5 if you don't even like it at +14? The answer is that 14 is the sixth-most key number in the NFL (lands almost five percent of the time). The difference between pushing a wager five percent of the time instead of winning it is substantial enough to be the tipping point between making this a bet with positive expected value, or a bet that is break even against the -110 vig.
Pick: Pass, take Bills at +14.5 or better.
Sharp: The New England defense has allowed 71 points the past two weeks, but those came against good passing offenses (No. 1 Chiefs and No. 9 Bears). They now face the Bills (dead last against the pass), who are still without rookie QB Josh Allen due to injury. Against offenses that rank inside the top-15, the Bills lost 47-3, 22-0 and 31-20.
The Patriots defense obviously has a big edge as well, taking on a Bills offense that has scored only 31 total points in its past four games. The Patriots have scored over 31 in each of their past four games. The Bills offense ranks dead last in pass offense the past month, as well as for the full season. It's hard to envision the Patriots defense yielding enough points for the Bills to cover.
Pick: Pass
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Where does the betting value lie in Monday's prime-time matchup? Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson provide their picks to help you place your bets.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 72 percent picked New England
Johnson: It looks like Derek Anderson will be under center for the time being in Buffalo, so my recommendation is to proceed with caution but not automatically look to bet against the Bills. On Monday night, they are getting the Patriots at home and the market currently sits +14 (my projection comes in at +12.2). Buffalo still fields the fourth-best defense in the league, and there certainly should never be teams that you look to bet on or fade blindly because of a result of a single game.
I am waiting patiently before I jump in and back the Bills. This opened at +13 and New England has taken the money to this point. A +14.5 would be fantastic, but if it never pops +14s will ultimately be a pass for me. I know it sounds extra particular in these cases: Why would you bet +14.5 if you don't even like it at +14? The answer is that 14 is the sixth-most key number in the NFL (lands almost five percent of the time). The difference between pushing a wager five percent of the time instead of winning it is substantial enough to be the tipping point between making this a bet with positive expected value, or a bet that is break even against the -110 vig.
Pick: Pass, take Bills at +14.5 or better.
Sharp: The New England defense has allowed 71 points the past two weeks, but those came against good passing offenses (No. 1 Chiefs and No. 9 Bears). They now face the Bills (dead last against the pass), who are still without rookie QB Josh Allen due to injury. Against offenses that rank inside the top-15, the Bills lost 47-3, 22-0 and 31-20.
The Patriots defense obviously has a big edge as well, taking on a Bills offense that has scored only 31 total points in its past four games. The Patriots have scored over 31 in each of their past four games. The Bills offense ranks dead last in pass offense the past month, as well as for the full season. It's hard to envision the Patriots defense yielding enough points for the Bills to cover.
Pick: Pass
