Week 10:Begin with Degenerate Tuesday

That's right. We all want a little action in the MAC tonight. Pretty good week last week, going 16-5, but 4 of those wins were in the FCS under/ weather games. Still down a little.
YTD: 67-55, -1.15 units

.5 units on both.

Buffalo -7 If you have seen Buffalo play, you get this bet. They have playmakers on both sides of the ball. Tyree Jackson and his skill guys are going to be a handful for Miami. Miami might have had their best game vs. Army, a one point loss. But Buffalo is a wholly different kind of team than Army. Army couldn't expose the Redhawks pass defense, Buffalo will. Buffalo doesn't recruit all that well, but they are well-coached, fast, and I expect will play enthusiastically at home.

Bowling Green/ Kent- under 67 Playing this high number because both teams pretty much are poor offensively. Both are also poor defensively, especially BG. However, I think with the time off, Bowling Green will play a bit more inspired at home. This is likely their only chance to win a MAC game this season. Also, Kent is a run heavy team, burning clock. Kent only averages about 20 points per game, so even a little better than that will be less than 30. BG might also be without top RB, Andrew Clair, and he won't be 100 % if he plays. A couple of long drives, FG, missed FG or no score, will make this under happen.

I really like Buffalo tonight

2-0 for "Degen Tuesday"

1* Ohio/ WMU- Over 65 The more I watch these MAC teams, the more I see slow linebackers and poor tackling DBs. At this point in the season, both of these teams have not had a bye for 2 months, and I think defensive players are a little worn down. WMU and Ohio have very strong running games, while their run defenses are pretty bad. WMU goes with their freshman QB, who was the highest recruited QB they've ever anded. He came in last week, threw for an 805 completion rate, and looked generally good. His OL has pass blocked well all year, but he got sacked 5 times. Got a feeling they'll work on him getting rid of the ball better during practice. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke is on a nice roll right now, and is proving to be a better passer than originally thought. Was tempted to take Ohio, but WMU at home, off a loss, and the freshman QB might be all that.

2* UCF -10 (-115) Taking a risk here as Milton is a game time decision to play. I think he plays, but we'll have to see. He dressed for the ECU game, but didn't come in as their backup came around and finished well, even covering the spread of 21.5. This game means too much for UCF, and if Milton is a little hobbled, his passing ability has been so damn good, I think he can go. Temple also has a couple of key injuries, and we'll see if RB Armstead goes or not, or if he is close to 100%. I also think this Temple defense and QB is overrated. QB Russo has more interceptions than TD passes, while UCF is #3 in the nation in turnover margin. Temple's defense got shredded last season by USF, UCF and Notre Dame last year when there was a perception they had a solid D. This year BC ran all over them, Buffalo scored 36 on 427 yards, and I think their D stats are inflated playing many poor offensive teams. UCF at home has been incredible the last 2 seasons. I think this 10 is buying low.

Fred...…...well done Tues. ……..BOL with all your weekend action and getting info the plus column ………..indy

indiana said:

Fred...…...well done Tues. ……..BOL with all your weekend action and getting info the plus column ………..indy

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Thanks Indy. Just curious, did you or anyone else get those FCS unders last Saturday? FCS games are not available in some books.

Fred...…...yes I did buddy (two of them), thank you......not all were available to me...…….indy

o fred said:

Thanks Indy. Just curious, did you or anyone else get those FCS unders last Saturday? FCS games are not available in some books.

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I parlayed all four, thank you.

looks like a few storms coming through this weekend too...

919 said:

I parlayed all four, thank you.

looks like a few storms coming through this weekend too...

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Not as much wind or rain, but yes some bad weather in New England and near the Chesapeake Bay. Looking at the UMass game.

UMass going up a little on total, just information. If you like the under is this time to go or wait?

For Friday. Neither play popular with the public.


1* Virginia -7 (-120)
1* Virginia -4.5 1H Pitt has come out of their last 3 games looking like gangbusters, but that is also why I think this might be a bad spot for them. Last week's exciting track meet with Duke in which the 2 teams combined for over 1,200 yards, and Pitt celebrated the win. They also played ND closely, and beat Syracuse in OT. I think there's a good chance they have a bit of a letdown here. This spread seems too large for a team that has looked so good on the scoreboard the last 3 games, and the public is all over the 7.5. Virginia has quietly won 5 out of their last 6, only losing @ NC State. And Virginia HC, Bronco Mendenhall, is the steadier force, has the much better defense, is at home, and has basically changed the culture of Virginia football. He is in it for the long haul, and recently donated a half a million toward their new facility. He has some bright young coaches, and a steadily improving offense. Pitt is definitely an inconsistent team, and I'm betting this is their "off" game.

1* Colorado +3 (+100) Another play that might seem a bit crazy, but this bet goes by the capping theory that says don't overweigh last week's results too much. I saw parts of both games last week involving these 2 teams. The Ducks looked like they were completely flat, unprepared, and without any emotion. Worst game they will play all year. Arizona just played way better than they had all year. But remember, this is the same Arizona team that lost to UCLA, got crushed by Utah and Houston, should have lost to Cal(the TOs killed Cal who really outplayed Arizona), have 4 wins and only the Oregon one was a statement game. I know Tate is back, and he is more mobile, but I doubt he is going to be running like he did last season.

I also saw the Buffs build a huge lead on the Beavs, and then get really complacent 2nd half. OSU QB Jake Luton came off the bench, and seemed to hit every pass, while the Buffs failed to pressure him or press the receivers. The Beavers do have an offense, but what was really shocking was how conservative Colorado got on offense. Colorado has played much better this year than that 2nd half. They had a bad 2nd qtr. vs. USC, played the Huskies fairly well considering they had a ton of offensive injuries that game. They are a close knit team, and I think a much better D than Arizona. Arizona actually tackled last week! but if you've followed football for long, you know that good tackling just doesn't happen that fast. Colorado might get Laviska Shenault back this week, but have the skill players to make big plays here vs. this UA defense. Can Sumlin get his boys off their cloud? We'' see. Not a big fan of either coach, but Sumlin even less so as he doesn't seem to get the most out of his talent.

thebiggbird said:

UMass going up a little on total, just information. If you like the under is this time to go or wait?

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Too early to say what the weather might be. If it's just a little rain, could be a non-factor.

o fred said:

Too early to say what the weather might be. If it's just a little rain, could be a non-factor.

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FYI....the weather in northeast is not nearly going to be as bad as it was last Saturday w/nor’easter.

Want to get these out of the way before the line changes.

3* Clemson -24 1H Louisville has seemingly quit on the season. Defensively they will get beaten all over the field. With Clemson now having a better downfield passing game, they are almost unstoppable vs. a UL defense that plays soft and tackles poorly. Clemson will also likely get a couple of turnovers 1H, or else Louisville plays so conservatively, they'll be 3 and out. Also, against a reasonably good defense, UL runs poorly and Juwan Pass struggles. Clemson at home is much better than reasonably good.

2* Alabama -7 (-129) 1H On the slight chance Tua gets injured here, I don't want to risk the 15 in the game bet. Also, LSU missing Devin White for 1H, might be a little more vulnerable. LSU has definitely played the tougher schedule, but I like how Alabama is so even tempered and almost professional in their demeanor. They won't get shaken playing in a tough venue on the road. LSU also doesn't have the playmakers on offense of their past teams, so they may not take advantage of a slight down year for Bama's D. This game has been analyzed to death.

Feeling a bit lucky covering the UCF game. With their defense, the OVER is the play in almost any game they play. Temple is better than I thought.

Ohio, though, is a team to look out for from here on out. Their QB has become a pretty good passer, runs like a RB, and even their defense has improved quite a bit. They could have won this game by even more if they didn't let up 2nd half.

Great start to the week! Thanks for sharing.

5* Michigan -10 (-120) ​ Probably shouldn't pay the extra juice here for the 10, but finally playing with house money, so what the hell. The only concern I have here is that Harbaugh will revert to his old, conservative ways, and play to "not lose" rather than kick PSU's ass. He went all out vs. Wisconsin, Nebraska, and a couple of other lesser teams, so I'll hope his OC and DC have free rein to exploit Penn State. PSU was damn lucky to win last week. If you had money on Iowa, you made a great play. Nate Stanley had the worst game of his season even before his thumb got hurt. He overthrew or missed receivers all night. Then the int. at the goal line was a fluke play. Penn State has to hang their hat on Trace McSorley way too much, and he is looking beat up and worn out. He is dealing with injuries this week, and I have a feeling the Michigan defense will make them worse, or even knock him out of the game.

Michigan's dominance of MSU might not have been evident by the score. Also, Wisconsin. Wisconsin had a few long running plays, and a could of 20+ passing plays, and not much else. Shea Patterson has been very good, although he is not asked to pass all that much. He could do more, but then he might turn it over more. His mobility is the key here as Penn State will try and rush him from the edge. However, Penn State has issues all over the place, and their dependence on McSorley, combined with the a defense that looks pedestrian, playmakers that are down a couple of notches… They should be on a 4 game losing streak as Indiana also outplayed them. Indiana's turnovers killed them giving PSU 3 TD drives of 5, 32 and 36 yards, while out yarding PSU by 150 yards. Michigan's defense and run game is up there with the best in the nation..and at home. Blowouts in the Big Ten, this time of year, seem to be frequent in recent years.

** The line changed while I was writing this..to 12. Holy S**t! I still like them at 12.

4* Utah State -19 Won't have to worry about Utah State getting conservative here. They are a high octane, hurry up offense that should be able to move the ball at ease vs. A Hawaii defense that is reeling. Utah State and Fresno, who they played last week, are easily the best teams Hawaii has played this year. So all of those offensive stats prior to Fresno might just be inflated. They'll score some, but will be unable to stop Utah State from hitting 50+. I also think Matt Wells, and his coaching staff, will focus on the game, not Hawaii. They are having a special season, and going into Boise with one loss later in the season, is very possible. Even their one loss at MSU was completive to the end. Really like the competitive but calm demeanor of their QB, Jordan Love, as he makes excellent decisions on the fly.

3* Texas A&M +3.5 This one down from 6, but the Aggies win here, I think. Auburn beat Ole Miss, and is off a bye, but they might also be missing their star RB, who definitely won't be 100% if he does play. Auburn is always in a must-win situation, but still doesn't perform. Even their Ole Miss win wasn't as impressive as it should have been. A&M brings a well rounded team that I think played better than the score indicated last week vs. MSU. Fitzgerald finally was able to pass to move his team, and his late run sealed the game. A&M has played a tough schedule, and finally has a coaching staff that brings stability. I don't like the sideline demeanor of Auburn at times. They look like they know they are going to lose, or falter, at times. Their defense was supposed to be elite, but really it is more like a defense that has 2-3 elite players while the rest are average. Stidham is under pressure too much and has a couple of banged up OL. If Whitlow's ankle is not healed, they are in trouble.

Fred.....solid card buddy......on many of these with you, lov Ut. St. …….indy

As I said earlier, this time of the year, weather permitting, football favors outstanding offenses. Defenses are worn down, depth is thinner. Since offenses know what each play is beforehand, while defenses don't, that OL and offensive players are initiating the contact, and therefore defenses get tired sooner in the 4th quarter. Not my theory, but I agree.

3* ECU/ Memphis- over 64.5 This play centers a lot on ECU QB Holton Ahlers continuing his outstanding play from the UCF game in which he threw for over 400 yards, was mobile in the pocket and can run. He is a freshman, but vs. UCF sure didn't look it most of the time. Neither team plays much defense. ECU and Memphis have playmakers at receiver, and I think ECU will make it a shoot out, maybe cover the spread. The weather should be fine in Greenville.

3* Oklahoma/ Texas Tech- over 77.5 Even if I lose this one, fine. There is no way I could take the under in this matchup. I know folks are saying Tech is playing better defense this year, and they are, but when facing WVU and Houston, they were pretty bad. I think Oklahoma hits the 50 mark here with Tech somewhere around 40. Going for it on the 4th down will be the norm, going for FGs will be a foolish play. 7s all day. Alan Bowman will not have to face as good a defense as last week's Iowa State, and Tech will likely give Jett Duffey some wildcat opportunities. Oklahoma, and sometime even Tech, has reined in the horses 4th quarter with a big lead, but I don't see that here. If I lose this play it'll be close to the number, but I think there's a better chance it goes way over.