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Thread: Road Wreck System Plays

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  1. #1 Road Wreck System Plays 
    RX Wizard sds23's Avatar
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    Road Wreck System

    The Road Wreck System produces plays that fall into two categories. These plays are either (1) Road / Home Plays or (2) Road / Road Fades.

    Road / Home Plays

    The “Play” is an ATS play on any team that loses on the road by 14 or more points (but also by less that 30 points) and plays its very next game at home.

    Road / Road Fades

    The “Play” is an ATS fade against any team that loses on the road by 14 or more points (no limit) and plays its very next game on the road again.

    Road Wreck System Record Y.T.D.: 11~1

    In week #3 GB lost at WA by 14, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
    In week #3 NE lost at DET by 16, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
    In week #4 NYJ lost at JAX by 19, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
    In week #4 MIA lost at NE by 31, then failed to cover in week #5 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #4 BUF lost at GB by 22, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
    In week #4 TB lost at CHI by 38, had a bye, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #5 DEN lost at NYJ by 18, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
    In week #5 ATL lost at PIT by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
    In week #5 OAK lost at LAC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 at home (1st R/H LOSS).
    In week #5 WA lost at NO by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
    In week #5 IND lost at NE by 14, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #5 JAX lost at KC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).

    ”R/H Plays” are 7~1 Y.T.D
    ”R/R Fades” are 4~0 Y.T.D.

    No plays qualified in week #7 or #8.

    But 4 plays qualify for week #9.

    Road Wreck System Plays for Week #9

    In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY).
    In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY)
    In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY).
    In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14 and plays on the road in week #9 (R/R FADE).
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  2. #2  
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    Looks like the Fish is the play this week
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  3. #3  
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    Quote Originally Posted by prime21 View Post
    Looks like the Fish is the play this week
    With both sides of this system pointing at the Fish, it certainly appears to be a reasonably high percentage play. But it’s also important to note that technically, this has happened one other time this season, when both sides of the system pointed at ATL in week #6.

    The reason I bring that game up is because ATL only won by 5 points, covering the spread by a mere 2 points (possibly less depending on your number that week). That game is also interesting because we had to wait a full week to fulfill the TB side (fade), since TB had a bye the week in between their system road loss and this second road game versus ATL.
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  4. #4  
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    WORD OF CAUTION: This is just something that I have noticed and have been tracking this season. I’m not sure if I have found and created a new system, or if a similar system exists elsewhere. The old saying is, “there’s nothing new under the sun.” And I believe that. So perhaps this is already a “thing”. It certainly is simple enough in nature, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it is. But nonetheless, it is “new to me” and something I’ve been tracking and playing with this current season.

    Will it go undefeated this weekend? (Probably not.) Will it go 11~1 over its next 12 games? (Certainly not!) But I do think it is a strong system and that it will continue to produce more winners than losers ATS. Like all systems, it will be susceptible to a bump or two in the road (perhaps a losing week or two), but will ultimately prove very viable over the long run.
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  5. #5  
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    Ended up with 14-11 ATS last years for teams losing by 14 or more and less than 30 then playing home.Home dogs were 8-6ATS
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  6. #6  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    Ended up with 14-11 ATS last years for teams losing by 14 or more and less than 30 then playing home.Home dogs were 8-6ATS
    If you by chance have access to a database, could you see how it does at 16 (instead of 14?). When looking back at the 2017 & 2016 seasons, I noticed that the system gained a few more wins when I increased the number from 14 to 16. So the 2017 ATS record of 14~11 ATS may look more like 14~7 with the “14” being changed to a 16.

    And in 2016 the “Road / Home” went 17~12 in using “16” as the minimum and using “no limit” as the max....but the “Road / Road” went an impressive 5~2.

    I do not have access to a database, so I checked 2016 & 2017 by hand. Quite exhausting and certainly at risk of making an error here or there. So if you’re willing to go back and check out the results with a 16 for 2017 and with a 16 and no top limit in 2016, I think you’ll find slightly better results.
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  7. #7  
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    I actually did it by hand. And for the last 10 years. Making the minimum for a loss on the road 16 and no limit.then playing home...... home teams were 164-144 ATS. Even if I made a few mistakes I think you are looking at about 50-55% system at best
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  8. #8  
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    Quote Originally Posted by exploited17 View Post
    I actually did it by hand. And for the last 10 years. Making the minimum for a loss on the road 16 and no limit.then playing home...... home teams were 164-144 ATS. Even if I made a few mistakes I think you are looking at about 50-55% system at best
    Thanks for looking into this. After going through the season week bye week, I have a firm record for the 2017 season. I’ll post it below this message.
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  9. #9  
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    2017 Road / Home Results

    In week 1 NYG lost by 16 and failed to cover at home in week 2 vs DET (LOSS)
    In week 2 MIN lost by 17 and covered at home in week 3 vs TB (WIN)
    In week 2 CHI lost by 22 and covered at home in week 3 vs PIT (WIN)
    In week 2 NYJ lost by 25 and covered at home in week 3 vs MIA (WIN)
    In week 3 TB lost by 17 and covered at home in week 4 vs NYG (WIN)
    In week 4 CHI lost by 21 and covered at home in week 5 vs MIN (WIN)
    In week 4 IND lost by 28 and covered at home in week 5 vs SF (WIN)
    In week 5 ARI lost by 27 and covered at home in week 6 vs TB (WIN)
    In week 6 CLE lost by 16 and covered at home in week 7 vs TEN (WIN)
    In week 8 SF lost by 23 and failed to cover at home vs ARI (LOSS)
    In week 9 TB lost by 20 and covered at home in week 10 vs NYJ (WIN)
    In week 9 DEN lost by 27 and failed to cover at home in week 10 vs NE (LOSS)
    In week 10 HOU lost by 26 and covered at home in week 11 vs ARI (WIN)
    In week 10 DAL lost by 20 and failed to cover at home in week 11 vs PHI (LOSS)
    In week 10 MIA lost by 24 and failed to cover at home in week 11 vs TB (LOSS)
    In week 11 the RAMS lost by 17 and covered at home in week 12 vs NO (WIN)
    In week 12 MIA lost by 18 and covered at home in week 13 vs DEN (WIN)
    In week 12 CHI lost by 28 and failed to cover at home in week 13 vs SF (LOSS)
    In week 13 DEN lost by 26 and covered at home in week 14 vs NYJ (WIN)
    In week 14 WA lost by 17 and covered at home in week 15 vs ARI (WIN)
    In week 15 CIN lost by 27 and covered at home in week 16 vs DET (WIN)
    In week 16 MIA lost by 16 and failed to cover at home in week 17 vs BUF (LOSS)
    In week 16 DEN lost by 16 and failed to cover at home in week 17 vs KC (LOSS)
    In week 16 NYG lost by 23 and covered at home in week 17 vs WA (WIN)

    ​Home / Road Record 16~8
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  10. #10  
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    As stated before, the 2016 season did not fare nearly as well (17~12 using a minimum # of 16, and no limit for the top #) but it did really well on the “Road / Road” side of the system (5~2 using the same #’s as above).

    So who knows how this will perform going forward? I just know that it has hit at an extremely high percentage so far this season and wanted to share these observations with everyone in the event it continues to produce.

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  11. #11  
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    H and p:AL and -14 >= p:margin >= -30 and season >= 2010 and ...
    Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

    Appears to be a short term random streak. Nothing in the past results points to this being sustainable. Just my $.02
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  12. #12  
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    A and p:AL and p:margin <= -14 and season >= 2010 and ...
    Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries
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  13. #13  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biz View Post
    Appears to be a short term random streak. Nothing in the past results points to this being sustainable. Just my $.02
    You could very well be right Biz. Could you do me a favor? Could you run those exact same numbers again, but at “16” instead of “14” as the low number? I’d really appreciate it. It would likely prove to be the final verdict in terms of “past success” for this system.
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  14. #14  
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    I have to wonder if this system has gotten a better percentage outcome due to rule changes in the NFL that have made this a more offensive minded league. I would think that rule changes would have to have an impact on the system that can't be quantified with numbers. Making the game safer has made for easier scoring for offenses. I think this year, with the way the QB's are being protected, we are seeing drives extended that would have normally been ended with a sack. Just throwing out my opinion on things, we could see this system stay viable for years to come with the direction the NFL is going. It's all about beating the book and cashing those tickets, so good luck to you and thanks for sharing the system.

    JDub984
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  15. #15  
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    Quote Originally Posted by JDub984 View Post
    I have to wonder if this system has gotten a better percentage outcome due to rule changes in the NFL that have made this a more offensive minded league. I would think that rule changes would have to have an impact on the system that can't be quantified with numbers. Making the game safer has made for easier scoring for offenses. I think this year, with the way the QB's are being protected, we are seeing drives extended that would have normally been ended with a sack. Just throwing out my opinion on things, we could see this system stay viable for years to come with the direction the NFL is going. It's all about beating the book and cashing those tickets, so good luck to you and thanks for sharing the system.

    JDub984
    Thanks JDub! And BOL to you this weekend!

    PS ~ I agree with your comments and would also like to add that perhaps “parity” in the NFL could also be a contributor. Either way, I can’t wait to see how this system continues to perform this season and beyond.
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  16. #16  
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    Today’s System Plays:

    Quote Originally Posted by sds23 View Post
    Road Wreck System Plays for Week #9

    In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY).
    In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY)
    In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY).
    In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14 and plays on the road in week #9 (R/R FADE).
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  17. #17  
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    Week #9 Results:

    Quote Originally Posted by sds23 View Post
    Road Wreck System Plays for Week #9

    In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY) WIN
    In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY) LOSS
    In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15 and plays at home in week #9 (R/H PLAY) LOSS
    In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14 and plays on the road in week #9 (R/R FADE) WIN
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  18. #18  
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    Road Wreck System Record Y.T.D. 13~3

    In week #3 GB lost at WA by 14, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
    In week #3 NE lost at DET by 16, then covered in week #4 at home (R/H win).
    In week #4 NYJ lost at JAX by 19, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
    In week #4 MIA lost at NE by 31, then failed to cover in week #5 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #4 BUF lost at GB by 22, then covered in week #5 at home (R/H win).
    In week #4 TB lost at CHI by 38, had a bye, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #5 DEN lost at NYJ by 18, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
    In week #5 ATL lost at PIT by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
    In week #5 OAK lost at LAC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 at home (1st R/H LOSS).
    In week #5 WA lost at NO by 24, then covered in week #6 at home (R/H win).
    In week #5 IND lost at NE by 14, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #5 JAX lost at KC by 16, then failed to cover in week #6 on the road (R/R fade win).
    In week #8 CLE lost at PIT by 15, then failed to cover in week #9 at home (R/H LOSS).
    In week #8 MIA lost at HOU by 19, then covered at home in week #9 (R/H win).
    In week #8 BAL lost at CAR by 15, then failed to cover at home in week #9 (R/H LOSS).
    In week #8 NYJ lost at CHI by 14, then failed to cover in week #9 on the road (R/R win).

    “R/H Plays” are 8~3
    “R/R Fades” are 5~0
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  19. #19  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biz View Post
    A and p:AL and p:margin <= -14 and season >= 2010 and ...
    Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

    A and p:AL and p:margin <= -16 and season >= 2010 and ...
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  20. #20  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Biz View Post
    H and p:AL and -14 >= p:margin >= -30 and season >= 2010 and ...
    Showing 1 to 9 of 9 entries

    Appears to be a short term random streak. Nothing in the past results points to this being sustainable. Just my $.02

    H and p:AL and -16 >= p:margin >= -30 and season >= 2010 and ...
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  21. #21  
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    Thank you for those numbers Biz.

    I would consider that to be the final verdict in terms of past success.....spotty at best (between the two charts, about 10 winning seasons, 7 losing seasons and 1 season at 51%). I really do appreciate you obtaining those, even if they don’t necessarily support the more recent success of this system.
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  22. #22  
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    Since this system is basically new, I’ve also been keeping a close eye on the potential difference between using “14” or “16” and even “18” as the minimum number. Here are the records for those options Y.T.D.:

    R/H @ 14 = 8~3
    R/H @ 16 = 7~1
    R/H @ 18 = 6~0

    Obviously I will not be switching from “14” to “16” (or 18) this season, but it is something that is worth watching going forward. It improved the results of past seasons, and improves them this season as well.
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  23. #23  
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    Road Wreck System Plays for Week #10

    In week #9 TB lost at CAR by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY)
    In week #9 GB lost at NE by 14 and plays at home in week #10 (R/H PLAY)
    In week #9 DET lost at MIN by 15 points and plays on the road in week #10 (R/R FADE)

    (Plays on TB, GB and CHI)
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  24. #24  
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    SDS how have you been ? Long time no see..I moved to Florida. No more snow. Volunteer at the Humane Society and work at the Amalie Arena for the hockey games and concerts. Hockey games is as cold as I get! Are you still in Wisconsin?
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  25. #25  
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    Quote Originally Posted by METFAN View Post
    SDS how have you been ? Long time no see..I moved to Florida. No more snow. Volunteer at the Humane Society and work at the Amalie Arena for the hockey games and concerts. Hockey games is as cold as I get! Are you still in Wisconsin?
    Hey Met! I’ve been great. Thanks for asking. I am envious of your new location! No more snow? Sign me up. Too far from family though, so I guess I’m stuck with these Wisconsin winters. Gotta like dogs, hockey games, concerts and the beach. You’ve got it good Met!
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