2018 Breeders' Cup Preview + Analysis of Each Race...Friday And Saturday !

BC - Juvenile Turf Sprint
October 31, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 5 ½ furlongs
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YO
Date: Friday, November 2
Time: 3:21 p.m. ET


The History


You’re looking at it as this is the inaugural running of this event as an official Breeders’ Cup race.


We ditch the traditional format for alphabetical order due to the mix of U.S. and Euro runners as well as age and lack of experience.


Bulletin rolled to a seven-length tally in his debut at Gulfstream going five furlongs five weeks ago.


Chelsea Cloisters won her debut on dirt at Keeneland but is winless in four turf starts, all in stakes, including two overseas at Royal Ascot and in Deauville. She’s finished second in her last three tries.


Moonlight Romance broke her maiden second out at Belmont in her turf debut then finished off the board in Royal Ascot before beating the boys by three lengths in the Juvenile Turf Sprint at Kentucky Downs.


Pocket Dynamo lost the G2 Norfolk at Royal Ascot by a nose having won his two prior starts. Overall, he’s won two of his six starts and was fifth most recently in the Cornwallis in England behind a couple others in here.


Queen of Bermuda ships over the pond with a remarkable 10 starts already under her belt, with four wins (two against the boys) and three seconds, including a G2 in France, most recently.


Sergei Prokofiev has won three of his seven starts, including the Cornwallis most recently as the 3-1 favorite, for Coolmore.


Shang Shang Shang broke her maiden at Keeneland then beat the boys in the Norfolk. This will be her first start in over four months.


Soldier’s Call has four wins, including two graded stakes, and has hit the board in all seven starts overseas. He was beaten just a head when third in a G1 at Longchamp on Arc weekend last out.


So Perfect was beaten less than a length in the G1 Phoenix at the Curragh and a G1 in England last out after winning two of her first four starts.


Stillwater Cove tries the boys for the first time in her fifth start having won the Bolton Landing at Saratoga two back before making the lead and tiring to fifth in the stretch of the G1 Natalma at Woodbine going a mile.


Strike Silver broke his maiden and finished second by a neck in the G3 Sanford, both on dirt, before storming home from dead last to take the Indian Summer.


Well Done Fox has finished in the exacta in six of his nine starts, including three wins, none in graded stakes. He was second to Soldier’s Call and Sergei Prokofiev in his last two starts.


If I’m Right…


There is a very good chance this will be run over boggy ground which should help the Euros and closers.


Live Longshot


Well Done Fox has won over good-soft ground in Europe.

BC - Juvenile Fillies Turf
October 31, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YOf
Date: Friday, November 2
Time: 4:00 p.m. ET


The History


Created in 2008, a year after the Juvenile Turf where fillies were forced to face colts, there isn’t much. Flotilla and Chriselliam won consecutive runnings of this in 2012 and 2013 for Europe after the U.S. won the first four runnings.


Favorites: 1 for 10 (10%)
Shortest: $6.80 (Lady Eli, 2014)
Highest: $29.20 (More Than Real, 2010)
U.S based: 8/Foreign based: 2


We ditch the traditional format for alphabetical order due to the mix of U.S. and Euro runners as well as age and lack of experience.


Belle Laura won second out at a mile over the course before closing the grab the show-dough in the G2 Jessamine last 48-1 last out.


Concrete Rose broke her maiden sprinting at Saratoga over a good course before tripping out to win the Jessamine by a drawing-away three lengths.


East is perfect in two starts across the pond, both sprinting. She broke her maiden over soft ground.


Just Wonderful has won half of her six starts, her debut, and a pair of graded stakes, including the Rockfel at Newmarket, five weeks ago.


Lady Prancealot broke her maiden over a synthetic surface in Europe where she made her first five starts before finishing second in the Juvenile Fillies Turf at Del Mar and Surfer Girl at Santa Anita, both at this trip.


La Pelosa was winless in four tries after breaking her maiden on debut in Europe before shipping over to win the G1 Natalma at Woodbine when racing on Lasix for the first time.


Lily’s Candle has won three of five overseas, including a G1 on the Arc undercard at Longchamp a little less than a month ago at this distance.


My Gal Betty won the Catch a Glimpse at Woodbine over yielding ground before coming up a length short as the Natalma favorite.


Newspaperofrecord has been sensational in two starts, her maiden win in Saratoga and the G2 at Belmont last out, winning each over yielding ground, by over six lengths and going a sixteenth of a mile more than this trip.


Pahket broke her maiden over yielding ground at Belmont second out before racing evenly in the stretch when second in the Jessamine.


Stellar Agent took her debut sprinting at the Spa but was beaten over eight lengths when she managed to get third in the Miss Grillo.


Summering looked goof winning her first two starts at Del Mar, including their JFT, before getting a bad trip in the Surfer Girl when third at odds of 2-5.


The Mackem Bullet finished second in the G2 Lowther and G1 Cheveley Park in her last two starts. She’s won just once from six tries.


Varenka finished second in the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga over yielding ground and in the Miss Grillo. She’s still looking for her first career win.


If I’m Right…


Newspaperofrecord is simply too much for these to handle.


Live Longshot


Belle Laura was flying at the end of the Jessamine from her post 13 draw. She gets some post relief and should be 25-1.

BC - Juvenile Fillies
October 25, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YOf
Date: Friday, November 2
Time: 4:40 p.m. ET


The History

Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. Ria Antonia was put up via DQ in 2013 after She’s a Tiger bumped her in deep stretch. Songbird led them every step of the way in 2015.


Favorites: 18 for 34 (53%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
Highest: $125.40 (Take Charge Brandi, 2014)


The Best


Bellafina ships in from SoCal for trainer Simon Callaghan on a three-race-win streak after finishing second in her debut against maidens. It has been a steady diet of graded stakes for her since that defeat on Independence Day at Los Alamitos. Blinkers were added and she promptly broke her maiden going six furlongs in the G2 Sorrento then won the G1 Del Mar Debutante at seven panels.


Last out, the blinkers came back off and she stretched out to this trip in the G1 Chandelier at Sant Anita. Second early on, Bellafina made the lead approaching the far turn before reporting home by over six lengths despite drifting in a bit through the lane.


Jaywalk is another who was a Monmouth Park debut runner-up then rattled off three straight tallies. Trained by John Servis, Jaywalk broke her maiden in the mud at Parx before capturing a minor stakes at Delaware Park.


Last out, Jaywalk shipped to Belmont for the G1 Frizette and rolled to an easy, gate-to-wire, near six length romp. This will be her first start around two turns and fifth career start at her fifth different track.


Restless Rider won her first two starts, including the Debutante, in sprints over this course before a planned two-month break by trainer Ken McPeek.


A wide trip from her outside post 11 led to a second-place finish in the G1 Spinaway at Saratoga before Restless Rider stretched out for the G1 Alcibiades on opening day of the Keeneland meet. Racing just off the early pace, she made the lead at the top of the stretch and reported home an easy winner by over two lengths while racing on Lasix for the first time.


The Tom Amoss-trained Serengeti Empress broke her maiden in her debut at Indiana Grand before a fourth-place finish in the G3 Schuylerville on opening day at Saratoga where a lot went wrong.


It’s all gone right though since Serengeti Empress returned to the Bluegrass state. She won the seven-furlong Ellis Park Debutante by over 13 lengths then stretched out to win the G2 Pocahontas by an astounding 19 ½ lengths at this distance over the course some six weeks ago.


The Rest


Sippican Harbor finished off the board in her debut on the turf at this distance on opening weekend at Saratoga before breaking her maiden in an off-the-turf event by 17 lengths and G1 Spinaway by a drawing away two lengths when she was last seen two months ago for her trainer Gary Contessa whose barn is on an inexplicable roll.


Vibrance finished fourth in her debut going a mile on turf then won going the same distance on dirt a month later in a pair of Del Mar starts. Last out, she found herself on the lead for the first time before settling for second in the Chandelier, finishing more than four length in front of the third-place runner.

Cassies Dreamer was claimed out of her debut win for $50K then finished a tough-trip third in the Spinaway. She grabbed the show-dough again in the Frizette which marked the third consecutive start in which she did not have a clean start.


Cookie Dough lost the first three starts before winning her last two against Florida Stallion Series competition, with her most recent coming from post 12 and resulting in a seven-plus length score at this distance. All of her starts have come down at Gulfstream Park.


Reflect closed nicely in her route debut when she finished second in the Alcibiades. She broke her maiden at Santa Anita in her debut before off-the-board finishes in the Sorrento and Spinaway.


Splashy Kisses was off the board in her debut, then broke her maiden by daylight second time out, both at Del Mar, before finishing second in the Pocahontas.


Baby Nina broke her maiden second out against Ohio-bred stakes competition before beating just one home in the Spinaway and finishing third last out in the slop going this distance back at Thistledown, the site of her maiden tally.


If I’m Right...


Bellafina has her work cut out for her against these East Coast rivals and is likely better at shorter distances.


Live Longshot


Vibrance is the one I want out of the Chandelier. She figures to get the stalking trip she desires with plenty of speed signed on in here and has plenty of foundation having already raced around two turns in her all three of her starts.

BC - Juvenile Turf
October 31, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 2YO
Date: Friday, November 2
Time: 5:22 p.m. ET


The History


Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders’ Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip.


Favorites: 2 for 11 (18%)
Shortest: $6.80 (Pounced, 2009)
Highest: $27.20 (Nownownow, 2007)
U.S based: 4/Foreign based: 7


We ditch the traditional format for alphabetical order due to the mix of U.S. and Euro runners as well as age and lack of experience.


Anthony Van Dyck rattled off three in a row after losing his debut before finishing second and third, respectively in the G1 Vincent O’Brien National and G1 Dewhurst in his last pair. He broke his maiden in his lone try at a mile.


Arthur Kitt won his first two starts in sprints before a second-place finish in a G2 in England and an off-the-board finish at Newmarket most recently at this distance.


Current has won both starts at a mile or over since finishing third in his debut to G1 winner Fog of War. A maiden win at Belmont going a mile was followed up by a fantastic win in the G3 Bourbon where he made up over five lengths in the last 100 yards or so.


Forty Under beat just one home in his debut on dirt but won his last two since switching to the weeds. After breaking his maiden at the Spa, he closed nicely to take down the G3 Pilgrim at Belmont over yielding ground most recently. Both races on turf were at over a mile.


Henley’s Joy finished a nose behind Current in the Bourbon after breaking his maiden in his debut at Ellis and taking the Kentucky Downs Juvenile, both at a mile, to start his career.


King of Speed was winless in his first four tries before taking the Juvenile Turf at Del Mar and Zuma Beach at Santa Anita going this trip.


Line of Duty finished second in his first two sprints before winning at a mile and in the G3 Prix de Conde going nine furlongs for Godolphin.


Marie’s Diamond has won three of his nine starts, none of which have been beyond six furlongs. He’s been off the board in his last two starts, both against G1 company.


Much Better broke his maiden at first asking on the dirt before making the lead in the stretch of the Zuma Beach then tiring to second.


Opry broke his maiden second out in the G3 With Anticipation at Saratoga before failing to fire in the Pilgrim where he settled for fourth as the 8-5 chalk.


Somelikeithotbrown rolled in his second start to win a New York-bred maiden race at Saratoga before finishing second in both the With Anticipation and Pilgrim.


The Black Album has won three of five starts overseas, including the G3 Prix la Rochette at 16-1 last out in his graded stakes debut. This will be his first start beyond seven panels.


Uncle Benny broke his maiden on dirt then stormed home to capture the Futurity in his turf debut at Belmont. This will be his first start around two turns.


War of Will got run down by Fog of War in the G1 Summer at Woodbine two back before tiring late after setting the pace in the Bourbon to finish fourth, beaten less than a length, as the 7-5 favorite.


If I’m Right…


An American runner is going to win this as I’m pretty confident the best Euros stayed on their side of the pond.


Live Longshot


Somelikeithotbrown has excelled in a string of three distance races. I think there is enough speed in here for him to set up a late rally.

BC - Juvenile
October 25, 2018
By Anthony Stabile

Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 2YO
Date: Friday, November 2
Time: 6:05 p.m. ET


The History


Is It True upset the great Easy Goer in 1988. Unbridled’s Song out-dueled Hennessy to win the 1995 running in just his third start. Johannesburg shipped in from across the pond and halted Officer’s winning streak in 2001. Street Sense took the first step in breaking the Juvenile/Kentucky Derby jinx by winning it in 2006, with Nyquist following in his hoof prints in 2015. Arazi put on his amazing display in the 1991 renewal at Churchill. In 2014, the Desormeaux brothers, trainer Keith and jockey Kent, teamed up with longshot Texas Red.


Favorites: 11 for 34 (32%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Chief’s Crown, 1984)
Highest: $63.20 (Vale of York, 2009)


The Best


Game Winner comes into the Juvenile undefeated in three starts for trainer Bob Baffert, who is looking for his fourth win in the event.


After breaking his maiden at Del Mar by nearly six lengths on the front end, Game Winner came from off the pace to win the G1 Futurity at the San Diego area oval. Stretched out to this trip last out, he handled the two turns with ease after dueling through sensible fractions on the lead to win the G1 American Pharoah by over four lengths.


Complexity broke his maiden on closing day at Saratoga with arguably the most impressive juvenile performance of the meet when he overcame a bit of a slow start to make the lead and win by over four lengths from his rail draw.


Trainer Chad Brown stepped Complexity up in class for the G1 Champagne last out. He broke like a shot, established a clear lead through fast early fractions and coasted home through the stretch, a three-length winner in the end


The Rest


Mind Control finished second in his debut behind eventual graded stakes winner Call Paul before breaking his maiden and taking the G1 Hopeful after dueling most of the way on the lead at Saratoga most recently. He was scratched from the G1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in early October, meaning this will be his first start in two months.


Knicks Go posted a huge upset in the Breeders’ Futurity, leading every step of the way at 70-1 when racing on Lasix for the first time. He broke his maiden in his debut before an off-the-board finish in the G3 Sanford at the Spa and third pace finish in the Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington Park.


Tight Ten romped on the front end in his debut run over this course then finished a tough-trip second in the G2 Saratoga Special. Last out he was a determined second when he returned to Churchill for the G3 Iroquois at this distance some six weeks ago.


Gunmetal Gray was off the board in his debut sprinting then came back to win his second start, a two-turn mile, by almost seven lengths at Del Mar. Last out, he overcame a bit of trouble at the start to rally for second in the American Pharoah.


Code of Honor went gate-to-wire in his Saratoga debut where he set modest early fractions before stumbling badly at the start of the Champagne. He closed very nicely to overcome his trouble while wide to finish second and will be reunited with John Velazquez.


Signalman finished second in his debut over a sloppy Churchill strip before breaking his maiden over three months later at Saratoga. Last out he overcame a bit of a rough trip to get second in the Breeders’ Futurity when first time Lasix.


Standard Deviation broke his maiden on an off-the-turf race going seven furlongs at the Spa in his debut before making up a bunch of ground to grab the show-dough in the Breeders’ Futurity from post 13.


Dueling finished second in his first two starts sprinting, including Game Winner’s debut where he was the 4-5 favorite, before stretching out to easily break his maiden most recently.


Trophy Chaser posted a giant speed figure when breaking his maiden second time out in the slop at Gulfstream Park then failed to do any serious running in the Champagne.


Well Defined coasted home to win at this distance last out in a Florida Stallion Stakes race at Gulfstream and has won half of his four starts.


Mr. Money finished second in a pair of sprints at Ellis Park to start his career then stretched out to this distance when shipping to Churchill to break his maiden by close to four lengths at a juicy 9-1.


Topper T makes his first start for Bill Mott having beaten Iowa-breds in his two victories from five starts. He’ll be making his first start beyond six furlongs


Derby Date has finished off the board in three of his four starts and is looking to break his maiden in here. He is currently the first also eligible for the race and would need a defection to get in.


If I’m Right...


The rest of the field is going to really have to step up their game to compete with the two, undefeated favorites.


Live Longshot


While stablemate Complexity figures to take a ton of money, I loved how Standard Deviation handled himself last time out. He’ll get lost in the tote board shuffle and should be 15-1 or so.

DAY 2 - SATURDAY, NOV. 3, 2018




BC - Filly & Mare Sprint
October 27, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 7 furlongs
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up(f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET


The History


Run at six furlongs in 2007 because Monmouth Park isn’t configured for the intended distance. Groupie Doll became the first back to back winner in 2013.


Favorites: 3 for 11 (27%)
Shortest: $3.40 (Groupie Doll, 2012)
Highest: $135.40 (Bar of Gold, 2017)
The champ is here? Bar of Gold was retired after her record upset.


The Best


This race took a hit when Dream Tree was declared about a week out for trainer Bob Baffert who still figures to send out the race favorite in Marley’s Freedom.


After making her first two starts for Richard Baltas and next seven for Bob Hess Jr., Marley’s Freedom arrived in the barn of the Silver Haired Fox this past spring. She’s undefeated in three starts since and is looking for her fifth consecutive win.


After winning the G3 Desert Stormer at Santa Anita by better than seven lengths and G2 Great Lady M by just over a length at Los Alamitos, Baffert shipped her to Saratoga for the G1 Ballerina, where she overcame the bias to roll by over three lengths with a quick burst of speed from mid-pack while widest of all. This will be her first start in 10 weeks.


Selcourt is the last horse to defeat Marley’s Freedom and will be making her first start since that score in the G2 Santa Monica at Santa Anita over seven months ago for trainer John Sadler who is 0 for 41 in Breeders’ Cup races.


Selcourt has hit the board in her six career starts that span 20 months. She rides a three-race win streak into this having won the Kalookan Queen and G3 Las Flores before the Santa Monica.


Finley’sluckycharm waves the local flag for Bret Calhoun as this mare is stabled at Churchill Downs for most of the year and has won six of her seven starts when racing beneath the twin spires.


Earlier this season, Finley’sluckycharm won the G1 Madison at this distance at Keeneland, the peak in what has been a roller-coaster year. She won the G2 Honorable Miss at Saratoga two starts back but was off the board in the G1 Humana Distaff over this strip and last out in the Ballerina. She may be a bit more effective at slightly shorter distances.


The Rest


Golden Mischief was purchased privately by Juddmonte Farms and turned over to Brad Cox before the season started. She’s won four of six this season including her last three, capped off by a gutsy win by a head in the G2 TCA at Keeneland most recently.


Mia Mischief is winless in three starts since taking the G2 Eight Belles in Kentucky Oaks day at Churchill on the front end. Fifth after dueling through brutal fractions in the G3 Victory Ride at Belmont, she was second in the two sophomore filly stakes at Saratoga, the G1 Test where she lost by just a neck to Separationofpowers and the G2 Prioress when she was beaten by over four lengths by Dream Tree.


Skye Diamonds finished fourth in this event last year and finally found the winner’s circle for the first time in six starts this year when she captured the G3 L.A. Woman at Santa Anita last out. Third in both the Las Flores and Santa Monica to begin the year, she was off the board in the Humana before finishing second in the Great Lady M and third in the G3 Rancho Bernardo, a pair of SoCal races she won last year.


Miss Sunset is a two-time stakes winner at the distances, including last year’s G2 Raven Run at Keeneland and missed by a nose in the Madison back in April. She’s won three of her seven starts this year, all against restricted stakes company in California. She finished fourth as the beaten 8-5 favorite in the TCA most recently.


Chalon just missed in the TCA when runner-up for the second consecutive year and has finished in the exacta in nine of her 12 starts, including the four she’s made this year after a private purchase before the season began.


Shamrock Rose upset this season’s Raven Run at over 18-1 just two weeks ago in what was her first win on the dirt. She won a pair of stakes at Presque Isle Downs and Woodbine in her prior two starts over their synthetic surfaces. This will be her first start against older fillies and mares.
The defection of Dream Tree has led to trainer Wesley Ward rethinking his situation with Happy Like a Fool, who has first preference and is in the body of the Sprint. Fifth in the TCA, she won the G3 Miss Preakness by over six lengths in the slop at Pimlico two starts back in mid-May.


Eleventh last year, Highway Star returns off her only win in six starts this season just two weeks ago in a New York-bred stakes. She’s won three of six starts and was second in last year’s Ballerina as well as this year’s G3 Bed o’ Roses at the distance.


Kirby’s Penny, a former claimer, won the G3 Vagrancy at Belmont three starts back from just off the pace before finishing a well-beaten third in the Honorable Miss. Last out, she dueled on the front end of the G2 Gallant Bloom at Belmont before settling for third, beaten just a length.

Anonymity was second in both the Rancho Bernardo and L.A. Woman most recently. Overall, she owns three wins and three runner-up finishes in six starts.


Stormy Embrace has hit the board in seven of her eight starts at seven panels and counts the G2 Princess Rooney at Gulfstream two starts back amongst her three wins at the trip. A seven-time winner in all, she returned from a two-month layoff to finish a disappointing third as the prohibitive 1-2 favorite in a Florida-bred stakes nearly two months ago


Dream Pauline is perfect in two starts that came eight months apart. She broke her maiden last December at Aqueduct by six lengths before returning in August at Saratoga to win an entry level allowance contest by two lengths.


Bixby Lou is seeking her first win on dirt as her two victories have come on turf.


In order, Dream Pauline and Bixby Lou would need defections to draw into the field.


If I’m Right…


A few of these fillies appear to be need-the-lead types so we should see a really fast pace. This one is ripe for a closer to pick up the pieces.


Live Longshot


Should she get in, Dream Pauline could take advantage of being lightly raced and from the apparent speed duel that should develop. If not, we’ll try Stormy Embrace.

BC - Turf Sprint
October 28, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 5 ½ furlongs (T)
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 12:38 p.m. ET


The History


Run down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to this distance in 2011. Mizdirection became the first female to win the event in 2012 and first to repeat in 2013, when there was a dead-heat for second between Tightend Touchdown and Reneesgotzip.


Favorites: 4 for 10 (40%)
Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011)
Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008)
U.S based: 10/Foreign based: 0
The champ is here? Stormy Liberal is back.


A yearly ritual…I never use my traditional format for this race. Too much going on in these turf sprints.


Also, you may want to keep in mind that, depending on which past performances you use, they’ll group five furlong and five and a half furlong races together in the DISTANCE column of the PPs. I’ve included their lifetime record at THIS distance next to each name.


Here is the field, in alphabetical order.


Bucchero (5-2-1-0) finished fourth in this event last year when he was beaten just a length. He’s made seven starts since, all in stakes competition including a trip to Royal Ascot this past June where he finished fifth. He notched his only win of the season when he rallied from off the pace to win the G2 Woodford at Keeneland for the second straight year.


Chanteline (6-3-1-0) takes on the boys for the first time in her 26-race career while in the best form of her life. She’s won three of her last four, including the Smart and Fancy at Saratoga and the G3 Franklin County at Keeneland last out.


Conquest Tsunami (0-0-0-0) missed by a head after setting the pace in the G3 Eddie D at Santa Anita when racing down the hill. Earlier this year, he won twice over that course, including the G3 Daytona before a third-place finish in the G1 Al Quoz on the Dubai World Cup undercard and a runner-up performance in the G2 Jaipur at Belmont.


Speaking of the Jaipur, it’s back-to-back winner and world record holder at six furlongs Disco Partner (4-1-0-3) comes in off of a daylight score in the Belmont Turf Sprint. Third in this last year, he may appreciate just a bit more ground.


Havana Grey (0-0-0-0) ships in from Europe off of an eighth-place effort in a G1 on Arc weekend. Two starts back he captured a G1 at the Curragh in Ireland and has hit the board in nine of his 15 career starts.

Hembree (2-1-1-0) has won three of his last four on turf since being claimed by Mike Maker who does a remarkable job with these reclamation projects. Three weeks ago, he rallied from well off the pace to win the G2 Nearctic at Woodbine by a neck.


After missing over 10 months, Lost Treasure (0-0-0-0) has won three of his seven starts, spanning just 55 days, this year for Coolmore. Last out, he was third when blinkers were added in a G3 over a synthetic course.


Rainbow Heir (4-1-0-1) has literally come out of retirement to take part in this event. After taking the Gulfstream Turf Sprint in late January and a failed retirement, he rallied to miss by less than a length in the G3 Turf Monster at Parx.


Richard’s Boy (0-0-0-0) is winless in eleven starts since winning the Turf Sprint at Pimlico in May 2017. Beaten just a head in this last season, he comes into this running off a couple of runner-up finishes in minor stakes at Del Mar and Santa Anita.


Ruby Notion (4-1-0-2) tries the boys after winning her last two, the Caress at Saratoga and Ladies Sprint at Kentucky Downs, appearing to move up considerably over courses that had some give in the ground.


Defending champ Stormy Liberal (0-0-0-0) lost four in a row after this last year, including the G1 Hong Kong Sprint where he finished far back and Al Quoz by a half-length but has rattled off three straight since, including a minor stakes at Del Mar and the Eddie D.


Vision Perfect (0-0-0-0) has made just five, well-spaced-out starts this year that’s included wins in a minor stakes at Gulfstream and the G3 Parx Dash. He was second by just a neck in the Turf Monster last out some two months ago.


Will Call (7-3-2-0) swooped the group to win the G3 Turf Sprint and allowance/optional claimer earlier this season in his only two starts over this course.


World of Trouble (1-1-0-0) takes on older for the first time off of wins in the Quick Call at Saratoga and Allied Forces at Belmont, his only two starts on turf.


The following horses, in order, need defections to get into the race.


Pay Any Price (0-0-0-0) has won four consecutive minor stakes in gate-to-wire fashion at Gulfstream Park.


Extravagant Kid (3-1-1-1) missed by just a length in the Woodford and took a restricted stakes at Saratoga two starts back.


Blind Ambition (2-1-1-0) won the Elusive Quality at Belmont earlier this season, his love victory in eight starts. Last out he was second in the Belmont Turf Sprint.


El Astronaute (4-3-1-0) will remarkably be making his first start in a graded stakes in 4o starts should he draw in.


Insta Erma (0-0-0-0) won the G3 Ladies Turf over a mile at Kentucky Downs two starts back before a failed run in the G1 First Lady at Keeneland.


B Squared (0-0-0-0) has beaten only California-breds in his four victories from 21 starts and will likely run in the Sprint.


If I’m Right...


You will need to spread in this event. This is a real head-scratcher.


Live Longshot


I’d be interested in El Astronaute and that solid record at the distance if he draws in. Richard’s Boy always shows up as well.

BC - Dirt Mile
October 26, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 mile
Purse: $1 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 1:16 p.m. ET

The History

Run around two turns at 1 mile and 70 yards in 2007 then on synthetic surface at Santa Anita in 2008 and 2009. Finally run at intended distance on dirt for first time in 2010. Goldencents became the first back-to-back winner of the event with a pair of gate-to-wire scorchers in 2013 & 2014 while Liam’s Map powered away to win after a tough trip in 2015.


Favorites: 2 for 11 (18%)
Shortest: $3.00 (Liam’s Map, 2015)
Highest: $77.40 (Dakota Phone, 2010)
The champ is here? Battle of Midway is still in training but will not attempt to defend his crown.


The Best


Catalina Cruiser figures to be one of the shorter-priced horses on the tote board over the course of the 14-race, two-day event despite his trainer John Sadler’s abysmal 0 for 41 record in the Breeders’ Cup because none of his prior runners were this colt.


Undefeated in four career starts, Catalina Cruiser broke his maiden from off the pace in a Santa Anita sprint last October before cruising to an entry level allowance tally at the Great Race Place back in May.


Catalina Cruiser’s two turn/stakes debut came in the G2 San Diego, a race Sadler won in upset fashion last year when Accelerate led every step of the way, beating Arrogate in the process. This year, his charge was the 6-5 chalk and ran like it, crushing his rivals by almost seven lengths. He cut back to a sprint for the G2 Pat O’Brien and made quick work of three rivals, winning by over seven lengths.


City of Light won the G1 Malibu and G1 Triple Ben at Santa Anita to end last year and start this season going seven furlongs before stretching out to beat Accelerate in the G2 Oaklawn Park Handicap at nine furlongs in April.


Trained by Mike McCarthy, City of Light was well beaten when third in the G1 Gold Cup at Santa Anita going the classic distance of 10 furlongs before a three-month layoff and second place finish off of a wide trip in the G1 Forego at Saratoga some 10 weeks ago.


The Rest


Firenze Fire won the G1 Champagne, a one-turn mile like this, as a juvenile last year over eventual Two-Year-Old Eclipse champion Good Magic before spending the first half of this year on the Derby Trail. After an eleventh-place finish in the Derby, it was back to one-turn races and he promptly won the Dwyer at this trip before a third-place finish against the bias in the G1 H Allen Jerkens at the Spa. Last out he won the G3 Gallant Bob at Parx going six furlongs.


Seeking the Soul took the local prep for this, the G3 Ack Ack at this distance and won the G1 Clark at the end of last season over the course. Overall, he has two wins and two runner-up finishes from four starts at a mile. His connections are hoping he can still get into the Classic, where he has first preference but is currently the bubble horse.


Bravazo gave undefeated Triple Crown winner Justify all he could handle in the G1 Preakness where he came flying late to miss by just a half-length. Winner of the G2 Risen Star earlier this year, he finished second in the G1 Haskell and third in the G3 Travers. He broke his maiden going a mile at Churchill in his second start last season. This will be his first try against older horses.


Seven Trumpets is winless in his eight starts outside of Churchill Downs but is undefeated in three starts beneath the twin spires. He’s still looking for his first stakes tally but he did give Firenze Fire all he could handle when second to him in the Jerome at Aqueduct to start the year at this distance and ran big races against the track when second in the Jerkens and third in the Gallant Bob.


Giant Expectations hung a bit after making a big move to the leaders in the Ack Ack where he settled for the show dough in his first start off of a six-month layoff most recently. Sixth in this last year, he won the G2 San Antonio to close out his 2017 season.


Lone Sailor won for the first time in nine tries this season and for just the second time in his career when he got his nose down on the line in the G3 Oklahoma Derby at Remington last time out. He finished second in the Street Sense going a mile at Churchill last season. Connections are still deciding between this and the Classic.


Trigger Warning captured the lone stakes win of his career over the Presque Isle synthetic surface in May before grabbing minor awards in the G3 Ohio Derby, G3 Indiana Derby where he was second by a head and last out when third in the G1 Pennsylvania Derby.


Isotherm is winless in all five of his starts on dirt but did finally hit the board in his last two tries, a minor stakes at Del Mar going a mile and the G1 Awesome Again where he was third behind Classic contenders Accelerate and West Coast most recently.


Dak Attack won his two juvenile starts, including the Ellis Park Juvenile before finishing third in a minor stakes at Gulfstream in his sophomore debut. Last out he missed by a nose in a second level allowance/optional claimer at Keeneland in his first start in over nine months.


Awesome Slew is winless in seven starts since taking the 2017 Ack Ack before a third-place finish in this event last year. He’s hit the board in three of four over the course and in half of his starts at a mile.


If I’m Right…


Catalina Cruiser is probably considered to be the strongest “single” on the Saturday card. I don’t know if you can topple him or not but the multi-race wagers go up considerably if Sadler’s Breeders’ Cup record stays true to form.


Live Longshot


Seven Trumpets is a horse-for-the-course over one of the most notorious racing strips in the land. Hope we can get 15-1 or so on him. He’s worth a long look at a big price.

B]BC - Filly and Mare Turf
October 26, 2018
By Anthony Stabile [/B]


Distance: 1 3/8 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up (F&M)
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 2:04 p.m. ET


The History


Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.


Favorites: 5 for 19 (26%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 11/Foreign based: 8
The champ is here? Wuheida is not here to defend her crown.

The B(rown)est

Sistercharlie leads a five-pronged Chad Brown attack on this event while making her first start in nearly three months since taking a pair of G1s – the Diana at Saratoga and Beverly D at Arlington – in a span of three weeks.


Since coming stateside in the summer of 2017, Sistercharlie has raced just five times. She was away over nine months between a narrow defeat as a three-year-old to now-retired stablemate New Money Honey in the G1 Belmont Oaks before taking the G1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland this past April. She was beaten just a head in the G2 New York at Belmont back in June after making up over two dozen lengths.


The New York went to proverbial win-machine Fourstar Crook, who has been victorious in 12 of her 19 starts. Prior to this season, the now six-year-old’s biggest tallies came against fellow New York breds and the occasional G3 against open company.


It all changed this season for Fourstar Crook. She won the G2 Hillsborough at Tampa to start the year before a runner-up performance in the Jenny Wiley and New York win. Two starts back, she was second in the Beverly D before capturing the G1 Flower Bowl at Belmont last out, her biggest victory to date.


A Raving Beauty has done her best work at shorter distances since coming to the U.S. earlier this year. A three-length romp in the G3 Beaugay at Belmont was followed up by a gritty score in the G1 Just A Game on Belmont Stakes day.


After a third-place finish in the Diana and inexplicable fourth place finish as the 4-5 chalk in the G2 Ballston Spa, A Raving Beauty rebounded nicely to lead every step of the way in the G1 First Lady at Keeneland going a mile. She’s winless in two tries at this distance but those efforts came as a three-year-old in 2016.


Santa Monica has hit the board in all five starts this season since coming across the pond. She won an allowance contest at Keeneland in her first start and took the G2 Dance Smartly at Woodbine in late June. She was third in the G2 Sheepshead Bay and G2 Glens Falls earlier this season before missing by a length when third most recently in the G1 E.P. Taylor back at Woodbine.


Thais will be looking for her first stakes victory after leading most of the way before settling for third to cap off a Brown-trained trifecta in the Beverly D at over 47-1 in her last start.


The Rest


Wild Illusion was second in the G1 English Oaks and finished second in the G2 Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot this June for Godolphin and trainer Charles Appleby before taking down the G1 Nassau and G1 Prix de l’Opera in her last two.


Athena ships back over for Coolmore having won the Belmont Oaks this year before a seventh-place finish in the Beverly D. This will be her twelfth start at her eleventh different track this season. She’s still eligible for a second level allowance contest.


Eziyra has won four of her last five against graded stakes company in Ireland with her lone defeat coming in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks in England two starts back behind the talented Sea of Class, for her trainer Dermot Weld.


Magic Wand won the Ribblesdale and finished behind Sea of Class in the Yorkshire and G1 Irish Oaks before a pair of runner-up performances in G1s at Longchamp, most recently to Wild Illusion.


Mom’s On Strike scored the biggest win of her career in the G3 Bewitch at Keeneland earlier this year before finishing fourth in the New York. She was second in the off-the-turf Waya at Saratoga and a minor stakes at Kentucky Downs in her last pair.


Paved won the G2 Honeymoon at Santa Anita back in June but tailed off form this summer with off-the-board tries in the Belmont Oaks and G1 Del Mar Oaks. She rebounded to finish a solid second against older fillies and mares in the G1 Rodeo Drive last out.


Smart Choice comes up from South America off of the lone G1 win of her career in Peru back in late June for new trainer Todd Pletcher.


Princess Yaiza won a G2 at Longchamp on Arc weekend and has finished behind several of the other Euro shippers in here.


Fuhriously Kissed has missed the board in all three of her turf starts and is seeking her first stakes win.

If I’m Right…


This is not the strongest Euro contingent we’ve seen in this event. They also seem to be taking turns beating each other.


Live Longshot


A Raving Beauty has yet to prove herself at this distance but I think the Lasix here in the states has really helped her cause.

BC - Sprint
October 26, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 6 furlongs
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 2:46 p.m. ET


The History


Dayjur was home free in 1990 before famously jumping a shadow at Belmont Park and allowing Safely Kept to become one of three fillies to win this. Thirty Slews won the 1992 running, introducing the world to a then unknown trainer by the name of Bob Baffert. Kona Gold ran in the Sprint five times, grabbing the brass ring just once in 2000. Midnight Lute won back to back races in 2007 and 2008, while 2011 Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle won the 2013 renewal with just one prep in over 18 months. In 2016, Drefong gave Baffert five wins to in the event.


Favorites: 8 for 34 (24%)
Shortest: $4.60 (Ellio, 1984)
Highest: $54.60 (Sheikh Albadou, 1991)
The champ is here? Roy H is back as is runner-up Imperial Hint.


The Best


Defending champion Roy H comes into this year’s renewal on a similar form cycle for trainer Peter Miller, who will also saddle defending Turf Sprint champ Stormy Liberal in that event earlier on the Saturday card.


Like last season, Roy H finished second in the G1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar behind the retired Ransom the Moon before easily taking the G1 Santa Anita Sprint Championship over a small, overmatched bunch.


Roy H started this campaign with an easy tally in the G2 Palos Verde before finishing third in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen in a blanket finish on the Dubai World Cup undercard at Meydan.


Since missing by a length in this last year, Imperial Hint has become a two-time G1 winner and will likely go off as the favorite for Luis Carvajal, Jr.


A twelve-time winner from 18 starts, Imperial Hint has won four of five starts this season, with wins coming in a Florida-bred stakes to start the year at Tampa Bay, the G2 True North during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival and in the aforementioned G1 events, the Vanderbilt at Saratoga and Vosburgh at Belmont.


In the Vosburgh, Imperial Hint ran like a 1-5 shot should, taking command from the start before being geared down in the final furlong while stopping the clock in 1:08 1/5 for six furlongs. It’s worth noting that two of his four lifetime off-the-board finishes have come over the Churchill strip.


Promises Fulfilled has arguably become one of the toughest one-turn runners in the land this season for trainer Dale Romans.


At the beginning of the season, Romans was hoping he had a Kentucky Derby contender on his hands, especially after his gate-to-wire score in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream at 1 1/16 miles.


Despite getting dueled into defeat in the G1 Florida Derby, Promises Fulfilled participated in the Run for the Roses and finished far back. In fact, he was beaten a combined 75 lengths in these two starts.


Since turning back to sprints, however, he’s done Promises Fulfilled has done little wrong. He dueled through wicked early fractions, including a :43 3/5 half-mile, before tiring to third in the G2 Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard then broke off three straight wins in the G3 Amsterdam and G1 H. Allen Jerkens at Saratoga and most recently in the G2 Phoenix at Keeneland, his first start against older horses.


The Rest


Limousine Liberal is searching for the first G1 win of his 25-race career and will do so over what is undoubtedly his favorite surface as he has won six of his eight tries beneath the twin spires of Churchill Downs. This season, he won the G2 Churchill Downs on Derby Day for the second consecutive year and G2 Belmont Sprint Championship from six starts while hitting the board in his other four tries. He had a nightmare trip through the final quarter-mile of the Phoenix most recently when he finished third, beaten just a half-length.


Whitmore has won nine of his 13 starts at this distance though needed to go seven furlongs in the G1 Forego to capture the biggest victory of his career two starts back. Earlier this year, he won a pair of sprint stakes, including the G3 Count Fleet Sprint at Oaklawn, missed by a neck in both the True North and Belmont Sprint Championship and by a head in the Phoenix.


X Y Jet will remarkably be making his Breeder’s Cup debut despite being one of the more accomplished sprinters of the past few years. The injury bug has bitten him often but when he manages to make it to the races he’s as speedy as they come. After missing over a year, he won the G3 Mr. Prospector at the end of last year and Sunshine Millions Sprint to start this year at Gulfstream then won a minor stakes at Tampa before missing by a head in the Golden Shaheen when Mind Your Biscuits nailed him on the money. Last out in late June he rolled home an easy winner of the G3 Smile at Gulfstream.


Mr. Crow had the looks of a top sprinter-in-the-making last year before tailing off considerably, having won just once in his last eight starts while searching for his first stakes tally. He was second in the Vosburgh most recently, arguably his best effort since last season.


Warrior’s Club captured the G3 Commonwealth at Keeneland this past spring, his first graded stakes score. Second in the Vanderbilt three starts back, he cuts back in distance after trying his hand at a mile when sixth in the G3 Ack Ack last out.2


Always Sunshine takes the biggest step up in class of his career off of a terrible effort in the G3 DeFrancis Dash at Laure. Earlier this season he won minor stakes at both Delaware Park and Saratoga from just off the pace.


B Squared is just one for 10 this year with his lone victory coming against fellow California-breds at Santa Anita in a stakes event. He has first preference in the Turf Sprint but it’s unlikely he’ll draw into that field.


You could have claimed Distinctive B for $32K three starts back when he finished second at Santa Anita back in January. He won an entry level allowance/optional claimer off of a near-eight-month layoff before setting the pace and settling for second behind stablemate Roy H in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.


Sophomore filly Happy Like a Fool takes on the big boys at six panels instead of fellow fillies and mares going seven furlongs off of a fifth place try in the G2 TCA at Keeneland on FallStars Saturday. She won the G3 Miss Preakness back in May.


If I’m Right…


This could be one of the best Sprint fields we’ve seen and will likely be the most competitive race over Breeders’ Cup weekend.


Live Longshot


They can’t bet them all so something has to give on the tote board and I think it’ll be Whitmore. He should get a solid pace and loves the distance.

BC - Mile
October 28, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 mile (T)
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 3:36 p.m. ET

The History


Where should I start?!?! Four horses have won multiple runnings, starting with Miesque beating the boys in 1987 and 1988. The speedy Lure won back to back runnings in 1992 and 1993 before failing to accomplish the three-peat in 1994. Da Hoss, amazingly, won it in 1996, ran once in between then re-rallied in the final strides to win it two years later in 1998. And, of course, Goldikova won three in a row from 2008 through 2010 before finishing third in 2011. In 2012, Wise Dan capped off his Horse of the Year campaign with a popular Mile score over 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and came back to defend his Mile title in 2013. It’s worth noting that Goldikova’s trainer Freddie Head has won three and is a five-time Mile winner and the only person to win a Breeders’ Cup race as a trainer and a jockey, as he was the regular rider of Miesque.


Favorites: 12 for 34 (35%)
Shortest: $3.60 (Wise Dan, 2012)
Highest: $131.60 (Court Vision, 1986)
U.S based: 21/Foreign based: 13
The champ is here? World Approval is not here to defend his title.


We’re going to switch the format up here. Euro shippers vs. U.S. runners. Here we go.


Euros


One Master is looking for the hat trick as the four-year-old filly comes into this off a pair of wins going seven furlongs against fillies in an Irish G3 and the G1 Prix de la Foret on the Arc undercard at Longchamp at 47-1. She has never raced beyond seven panels.


Sophomore filly Polydream will look to rebound having finished seventh to One Master last out as the 3-2 betting favorite. She beat the boys in her two prior starts, a G3 at Longchamp in June and a G1 at Deauville two back.


Fellow three-year-old filly I Can Fly just missed defeating Classic-bound Roaring Lion by a neck at Ascot two weeks ago in the G1 queen Elizabeth II and won an Irish G2 three starts back going this distance against the boys.


Expert Eye won the G3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot against fellow three-year-olds and the G2 City of York two back against older, both at seven furlongs. Winless in three starts at this distance, he was second in the G1 Sussex and third in the G1 Prix du Moulin at Longchamp nearly two months ago in his latest.


Happily is another three-year-old filly trying the boys here while seeking her first victory of 2017. A four-time winner last year, she was last in the B.C. Juvenile Fillies Turf as the 2-1 chalk when she encountered some trouble at Del Mar. She has faced some of the best in Europe this year, like Laurens, Roaring Lion and Alpha Centauri.

Lightning Spear upset the Sussex at 9-1, his only tally from five starts this year. Second in the G1 Lockinge and third in the G1 Queen Anne at Royal Ascot to start the season, he’s finished off the board in his last pair, the Prix du Moulin and Queen Elizabeth II. He does own four wins at this distance.


Mustashry has won three of four starts this year, at seven furlongs, a mile and ten furlongs. His last two, a pair of G2 in England, were the two biggest of his career to date.


Gustav Klimt owns just one win and three other board placings from nine starts this season and is winless at five tries going a mile for.


U.S. based


After a ninth-place finish in the Turf last year, Oscar Performance returned over seven month later to win the G3 Poker at Belmont, breaking a 20-year-old course record for this distance in the process. After being pulled up in the last 100 yards of the ten-furlong, G1 Arlington Million for precautionary reasons, he cut back and led them gate-to-wire in the G1 Woodbine Mile, to run his record at this distance to a perfect three-for-three as he took the Juvenile Turf down in 2016.


Almanaar won the G1 Gulfstream Park Turf in February 2017 and returned a winner some 16 months later in a money allowance/optional claimer at Belmont. Second to stablemate Robert Bruce by just a half-length in the Arlington Million, he was a no-show in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile last out over a course rated good.


Analyze It raced five-wide throughout the Shadwell in his first try against his elders as the 2-1 favorite after narrowly missing in the G3 Pennine Ridge, G1 Belmont Derby and G1 Secretariat at longer distances. The Shadwell was his first defeat in three tries at a mile.


Catapult has won his last pair since switching barns and moving to the West Coast. After a runner-up performance behind Sharp Samurai in his first SoCal start while racing off of am eight-plus month layoff at Santa Anita, he stormed home to win the G2 Eddie Read and G2 Del Mar Mile in San Diego.


Hunt finished well behind Catapult in his last two tries but did capture the G1 Shoemaker Mile at Santa Anita in his only other start this season back in May. Like Oscar Performance, he was off the board in the Turf last year.


Next Shares win the restricted Old Friends Stakes at Kentucky Downs before upsetting the Shadwell at over 23-1 most recently. He was beaten less than a length in the Shoemaker Mile earlier this year and, like Hunt, didn’t seem to care for the Del Mar course this summer.

The following horses, in order, would need defections to get into the field.


Divisidero won over this course on three consecutive Kentucky Derby days from 2015 to 2017, including the G1 Turf Classic twice. He’s winless in five tries at a mile.


Clemmie would like to join her fellow Euro-trained sophomore fillies despite being winless in five starts this year, all at a mile and all races won by either Laurens or Alpha Centauri. She won three of her five starts last year, all graded stakes.


Qurbaan upset the G2 Bernard Baruch on closing day at Saratoga as the longest shot in the five-horse field then raced evenly through the stretch to get third in the Shadwell.


Great Wide Open was second at over 81-1 in the Shadwell after finishing second in the Tourist Mile at Kentucky Downs. He’s won just one of his 14 U.S. starts since arriving here nearly two years ago.


Hembree has one win and five runner-up finishes from seven starts at a mile. Winner of the G2 Nearctic and Woodbine last out, he’s likely to run in the Turf Sprint.


If I’m Right…


The Euros do NOT have a strong hand here this year.


Live Longshot


If Divisidero gets in, he’s the one. If not, Next Shares has really flourished since returning east. They’ll both be big prices.

B]BC - Distaff
October 25, 2018
By Anthony Stabile [/B]


Distance: 1 1/8 miles
Purse: $2 million
Age: 3up (f&m)
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 4:16 p.m. ET

The History


In what could be considered the most memorable moment in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, Personal Ensign gunned down Kentucky Derby winner Winning Colors in THE final stride of the 1988 running at Churchill Downs. Bayakoa won back to back runnings the following two years. Inside Information won it in 1995 by 13 ½ lengths, the largest winning margin in Breeders’ Cup history. Before tackling the boys twice, Zenyatta graced this race with her presence when she won it in 2008. Royal Delta won her second consecutive running in 2012 before failing in her attempt to three-peat in 2013 when 2012 Juvenile Fillies champ Beholder became the first winner of a juvenile event to win another Breeders’ Cup race. Rosie Napravnik announced her retirement after guiding the three-year-old Untapable to a popular score in 2014. In 2016, Beholder beat the undefeated Songbird by a nostril in the “mother of all Distaffs,” joining Goldikova as the only other horse to win tree Breeders’ Cup races.


Favorites: 14 for 34 (41%)
Shortest: $2.80 (Life’s Magic Entry, 1985)
Highest: $113.80 (Spain, 2000)
The champ is here? Forever Unbridled was retired earlier this year.


The Best


The runner-up in this last year, Abel Tasman looks to rebound from a dreadful off-the-board finish in the G1 Zenyatta at Santa Anita last time out as the 1-10 favorite for trainer Bob Baffert, who mentioned that a bug was going through his barn two days before the race on the Horse Racing Radio Network.


Last year’s G1 Kentucky Oaks winner at Churchill Downs, Abel Tasman has raced just four times since this event last year, and started it off with a clunker, after getting bothered at the start, in the G1 La Troienne at Churchill on this Oaks Day before getting back to her winning ways when she romped in the G1 Ogden Phipps on Belmont Stakes Day in the Big Apple.


On Travers Day, she renewed her rivalry with Elate when she took advantage of a speed biased course, going gate to wire after body checking her foe in deep stretch of the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga in a race eerily reminiscent of their G1 CCA Oaks stretch battle last season. Unlike last year where it seemed like great race-riding by her rider, Mike Smith, many felt this incident, a solid bump in deep stretch after a patented Smith left-handed whip, warranted a disqualification but the result stood.


Speaking of disqualifications, Monomoy Girl is a bad Parx stewards call away from being undefeated in what will likely turn out to be a three-year-old filly championship season when her number was pulled down last out in the G1 Cotillion when she crossed past and allegedly herded, a practice that often goes unpunished in 2018, Midnight Bisou through the stretch.


Before the incompetence back at Parx in September, Monomoy Girl won all five of her starts, all but one against G1 competition, across the eastern half of the U.S. this year for trainer Brad Cox.


After starting the season by winning the G2 Rachel Alexandra at the Fair Grounds in an uncharacteristic, well-off-the-pace manner, Monomoy Girl won the Ashland by daylight at Keeneland in gate-to-wire fashion.


In this year’s Kentucky Oaks, Monomoy Girl overcame post 14 and a bumping incident in deep-stretch to prevail by a half-length before rallying from third to take the Acorn at Belmont one race after Abel Tasman’s romp. Before the Cotillion, she led every step of the way in the CCA Oaks under regular rider Florent Geroux.


Midnight Bisou finally got the better of Monomoy Girl, albeit with the help of the stewards, when she finished just a neck behind in the Cotillion before being awarded the victory.


Earlier this year, when in the Bill Spawr barn in California, Midnight Bisou won three in a row, including the G1 Santa Anita Oaks before finishing third when widest of all over an inside, speed-biased course in the Oaks. After that event, citing a lack of divisional races out west, she was transferred to trainer Steve Asmussen.


In Asmussen’s care, Midnight Bisou made quick work of just three rivals in the G2 Mother Goose at Belmont before a runner-up finish in the CCA Oaks. She appeared primed to win the G1 Alabama off of that effort but failed to negotiate the 10 furlongs and finished a well beaten third.


It’s worth noting that John Velazquez will ride in the Distaff with regular pilot Mike Smith opting to stick with Abel Tasman.


The Rest


Blue Prize returns to arguably her favorite racetrack while riding a three-race win streak that was capped off by her first G1 tally in the Spinster at Keeneland last out where she ducked out severely through the stretch before righting herself to win by a bit less than a length. Earlier this season, she captured both the G2 Fleur de Lis and G3 Locust Grove over this strip.

Wow Cat won the G1 Beldame in her third start since coming to the States by over three lengths most recently at Belmont after finishing second in the G3 Shuvee and third in Personal Ensign at the Spa. A Chilean bred, she was perfect in eight starts last season in her homeland.

Vale Dori posted a huge upset in the Zenyatta when she added blinkers for the first time in her career at the age of six and stablemate Abel Tasman failed to fire. It was her first win in well over a year


Wonder Gadot will be making her eleventh start of the year and sixteenth overall with a break in her career. She beat the boys in her native Canada in the Queen’s Plate and Prince of Wales, the first two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown before foregoing a chance at the sweep to run in the G1 Travers where she finished last of 10. Earlier this year, she was second in the Kentucky Oaks and most recently third in the Cotillion. Like fellow sophomore fillies Monomoy Girl and Midnight Bisou, this will be her first try against older fillies and mares


Champagne Problems won two in a row, including the G3 Groupie Doll at Ellis Park this season, before a pair of runner-up efforts behind Blue Prize in the Locust Grove and Spinster.


La Force has finished second in three consecutive G1 races in SoCal – Beholder Mile, Clement Hirsch and Zenyatta - losing each of her last two by less than a length, despite still being eligible for a second level allowance contest. In all, she’s finished second six times in 10 dirt starts.


Verve’s Tale is looking for her first win of 2018 off of show-dough finishes in the Shuvee and Beldame. Winner of the G3 Comely at this distance as a three-year-old in 2016, she’s hit the board in seven of nine tries at the trip.


Mopotism has just one win, the G2 La Canada at Santa Anita back in January, this season from six starts. She was second in the G2 Santa Maria and third in both the G1 Santa Margerita and Fleur de Lis. She has second preference in the F&M Sprint,


Fourth in the Spinster, Fuhriously Kissed is looking for her first stakes score and has first Preference in the F&M Turf, a race she will likely get into.


If I’m Right…


I think her effort in the Cotillion, despite appearing to be one of her best speed-figure wise, showed that Monomoy Girl figures to be a bit vulnerable as she gets to the end of a long campaign.

Live Longshot


Champagne Problems has vastly improved in her four-year-old season. She’ll get some pace, has hit the board in seven of nine starts over the course and should be rolling late at 15-1 or so.

BC - Turf
October 27, 2018
By Anthony Stabile


Distance: 1 1/2 miles (T)
Purse: $4 million
Age: 3up
Date: Saturday, November 3
Time: 4:56 p.m. ET


The History


Pebbles in 1985 and Miss Alleged in 1991 are the only two fillies to have beaten the boys in this. Theatrical finally got the job done in 1987 and more importantly helped forge the Bill Mott/Allen Paulson partnership that would rule the sport for a decade. Kotashaan capped an amazing Horse of the Year season with a win in 1993. High Chaparral won it in 2002, then dead-heated with Johar in 2003, the only dead heat for win in Breeders’ Cup history. Better Talk Now won it in 2004 before failing to do so the next four years. Conduit won consecutive runnings in 2008 and 2009. In 2011, trainer Aidan O’Brien trained St. Nicholas Abbey to win with his son Joe in the saddle. Main Sequence won his fourth G1 in as many tries with his patented late run to take it down in 2014.


Favorites: 9 for 34 (26%)
Shortest: $3.80 (High Chaparral, 2002 and Conduit, 2009)
Highest: $108.80 (Lashkari, 1984)
U.S based: 13/Foreign based: 22
The champ is here? Talismanic is coming back to defend his crown.


The Best


Two-time G1 Arc de Triomphe winner Enable makes the trip over from Europe while making just her third start of the season for trainer John Gosden.


Enable comes into the Turf having won all but one of her 10 starts and is on an eight-race winning streak. As a three-year-old last season, she won six straight after a third place-finish to start the season, with five victories coming in G1 races, including the Arc by over two lengths.


This season, Enable has had a far less taxing campaign as she didn’t return for 11 months before taking the G3 September over a synthetic surface before taking her second Arc by a neck.


She has essentially been pointing for this event this season but will have to overcome the fact that an Arc winner has never won the Turf.


Defending Turf champ Talismanic has won just two of his five starts since upsetting this last year at 14-1 for his trainer Andre Fabre.


Second in the G1 Hong Kong vase to wrap up 2017, Talismanic was pointed for the G1 Dubai World Cup on dirt at the beginning of this year a won a prep over a synthetic surface before failing to run a step when beaten 29 lengths in the World Cup.


Talismanic returned over four months later to finish second in a G2 in France before getting beat 11 lengths in the Arc.


Fabre will also send out fourth-place Arc runner Waldgeist, who’ll be making his third start off of an 11-week break.


Waldgeist was a G1 winner in three tries as a two-year-old before going winless in five starts last season.


This season, Waldgeist has turned things around. After a fifth-place finish in his return from a five-month layoff, he won four consecutive starts, including the G1 Prix de Saint-Cloud and G2 Prix Roy, the latter over Talismanic.


The Rest


Crystal Ocean is looking for his first G1 win after finishing second in his last three starts, including the September two back behind enable. He races just two weeks before the turf when Cracksman beat him by six lengths in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot.


Three-year-old filly Magical comes over for Coolmore and Aidan O’Brien off of a win in the G1 British Champions at Ascot at this distance a couple of weeks ago. This will be her third start in four weeks as she finished over five-lengths behind Enable in the Arc.


Robert Bruce was undefeated in his native Chile before shipping to the States this year. He won the G3 Ft. Marcy in his first U.S. start before a tough-trip in the G1 Manhattan where he was beaten just a length snapped his undefeated streak. A well-timed move resulted in a half-length tally in the G1 Arlington Million in August. Last out, he didn’t seem to handle the soft ground when he was second in the G1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont going this distance.


Channel Maker took them gate-to-wire in the Joe Hirsch last out and has really seemed to turn things around since being ridden more aggressively and placed forwardly in his races. He dead-heated for the win in the G2 Bowling Green before chasing the winner in the G1 Sword Dancer, both at Saratoga, in his two prior efforts.


Glorious Empire was the won Channel Maker dead-heated with at 22-1 and couldn’t catch at 15-1 up at the Spa this summer. A former claimer, he could just be a horse-for-the-course as his three best races by far have come at the upstate N.Y. oval.


Sadler’s Joy rallied to finish fourth in this heat last year before starting this season with a score in the G2 Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream. He’s winless since but did just miss when second by a neck in the Manhattan and third in the Bowling Green and Joe Hirsch.


Hunting Horn was third in the G1 Belmont Derby and eighth in the G1 Secretariat at Arlington, both against three-year-olds, earlier this summer when he shipped over the pond. Still eligible for a second level allowance contest, he finished over 16 lengths behind Enable in the Arc most recently.


Hi Happy won the G2 Pan American at Gulfstream going this distance and G1 Man O’ War at Belmont at a furlong shorter earlier this spring but has tailed off since a third pace finish in the Manhattan. Perhaps he didn’t care for the Spa, where he was off-the-board in both the Bowling Green and Sword Dancer. He was second going shorter in the G2 Knickerbocker back at Belmont on Columbus Day.


Arklow was second in the G2 Sycamore at Keeneland just two weeks ago after winning both the prep for the G3 Kentucky Cup Classic at 10 furlongs at Ellis Park and the race itself at this trip two starts back.


Liam the Charmer won his last two starts off of a year layoff since being gelded this summer, including the G2 John Henry Turf Cup at Santa Anita a month ago.


Quarteto de Cordas ships up from Brazil and makes his first start for Ian Wilkes off of an early August layoff. He’s won five of 16 overall and one of three at this trip on turf.


If I’m Right...


Enable is just too much for this bunch and will break the Arc/Turf jinx.


Live Longshot


Sadler’s Joy should get a great set up as there seems to be a good deal of pace signed on in here. Americans usually get lost in the shuffle on the tote board in this so we should get 15-1 or more.

Thanks for posting!