[h=1]Best bets on Week 9 NFL games[/h]
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 9 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
[h=3]Los Angeles Rams (-1) at New Orleans Saints[/h]Total: 60
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Los Angeles
Johnson: This matchup is intriguing outside of the obvious storylines about a potential NFC Championship preview and home-field advantage possibly being on the line. The Rams lead the league with 150.9 rushing yards per game behind what could wind up being a historic season for Todd Gurley. They rank only fifth in yards per rush, but they wear defenses down by continually feeding Gurley in the fourth quarter. It's no coincidence that the Rams' defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent points per fourth quarter (2.9). The next closest team is Baltimore, which gives up four points per fourth quarter. Gurley is one of the Rams' best defensive weapons.
On the opposite side of that equation, the Saints rank No. 1 by a considerable margin in opponent yards per rush attempt. What is going to give here? Is Sean McVay going to force-feed Gurley, or is he going to attack a pass defense that ranks 29th in the NFL?
The Rams are gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt to this point in the season against better pass defenses, which is the best mark in the NFL this season -- and also the best number that exists in the data I have dating back to 2003. It's no secret that Gurley and the running game set up Jared Goff's dynamic attack through the air, but it's elite regardless.
My money is on McVay figuring out the best way to use his weapons and beat a Saints defense that has a glaring weakness. My projection for the game makes the Rams -1.3 on the road in this matchup, so at -1 it isn't a remarkable edge in the numbers. I do think that there is a significant coaching mismatch that lines up effectively for Los Angeles. I won't buy in to the fact that the Rams were looking ahead to this Week 9 game in New Orleans and thus struggled against Green Bay, but I would anticipate max effort and focus out of the players and coaches after the scare.
Pick: Rams -1
Sharp: I'm intrigued to see Sean Payton's game plan here. Two weeks ago he went run-heavy in Baltimore, which could be understood given the Ravens' strong pass rush. Last week he went run-heavy and relied on extremely quick/short passing from Drew Brees, despite facing a Vikings defense that was down three starters in the secondary. That was hard to understand. This week he faces the Rams (No. 6 versus the pass and 25th versus the run), so it would seem to make sense that the Saints would attack on the ground. But the Rams rank No. 26 in explosive passing and could be had there as well.
The Saints are far from their strong rushing attack of 2017, and actually rank dead last in explosive run offense. As such, a run-first approach would be far more methodical and slow, and would keep the Rams in the game much longer.
Sean McVay has to be licking his chops at New Orleans' No. 29 pass defense, the worst the Rams have faced since Week 1. In addition, the Saints rank just 23rd in pass rush and are down their top pass-rusher (Marcus Davenport) for this contest. I also expect a big step up from Goff given the return of WR Cooper Kupp. The big question is how much will the Rams run against the No. 2 run defense of the Saints, and how well will that run defense holds up considering it hasn't faced any run offense near the Rams' caliber this season.
Lean: Rams -1
[h=3]Chicago Bears (-10) at Buffalo Bills[/h]Total: 37.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Chicago
Johnson: There isn't too much to dissect in this game. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Nathan Peterman is worth three points to the spread in comparison to any of the other Bills quarterbacks that have taken the field this season. My number for this game is Bears -8.4 without the Peterman adjustment, so I wasn't surprised to see Chicago take the money earlier this week when the announcement was made Derek Anderson wouldn't be playing. I wouldn't be laying the -10 at this point, but if you grabbed the Bears under the -10 then you're sitting in a good position. It's a complete stay-away for me otherwise.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Buffalo is going with the turnover-prone Peterman out of necessity and now faces one of the best defenses in the NFL. The good news is the Bears defense is trending poorly. On the season, they are the No. 5 against the pass, but the past three weeks (despite playing just the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots) they've ranked 22nd. On the season they are the No. 3 defense versus the run, but the past three weeks they rank 19th. The last time the Bills played a top-five defense (Houston in Week 6), the game ended in a 20-13 road loss.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is far from playing at its elite 2017 level, but is still opportunistic -- and that's where it could bite Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears offense has played just three top-10 defenses this year, and every game was a close win, apart from the 14-point home win last week. It's going to be ugly, but I don't think the Bears offense or current-form defense is a good bet laying 10 points on the road.
Lean: Bills +10
[h=3]Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6)[/h]Total: 55
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Carolina
Johnson: I'm trying to forget Week 8's Tampa Bay cover trailing by 18 in the fourth quarter. I had laid the -3.5 with Cincinnati and -- to the shock of nobody -- the prevent defense and prevent offense with the lead late didn't pan out for the Bengals. They wound up kicking a field goal to win the game by three points in regulation after Tampa Bay tied the game.
The irrational me wanted to immediately bet against the Buccaneers out of spite, but everybody knows this isn't a smart way to bet profitably long term. My number for the game is Carolina -6.9, so unless I saw a -5.5 appear I won't ultimately be getting involved in the side. The total at 55 is slightly inflated, but it isn't enough for me to consider a bet on the under either.
It's worth noting that Tampa Bay elected to bench James Winston against Cincinnati in Week 8 for Ryan Fitzpatrick -- and that it was Fitzpatrick who led them all the way back in that fourth quarter. The Buccaneers announced already that Fitzpatrick will be starting in Week 9. Fitz has been magical, and the offense has been even more efficient with him under center. This is likely one of the reasons why we are seeing a total at 55 and not 53. There may be some opportunity to bet this game live on Sunday, but for now I won't be getting involved.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Panthers defense was tremendous in limiting the passing attack of the Ravens to just 4.9 yards per attempt and a 41 percent success rate last week. Over the past month, Carolina has faced passing attacks that are either below average or not explosive (or both), but the Bucs rank No. 12 in passing efficiency and are the sixth-most explosive pass offense. It will be a test for the Panthers secondary to slow down Ryan Fitzpatrick and the deep receiving corps.
The Bucs defense will be challenged by Cam Newton, who is playing as well as he ever has played. The Panthers are capable of running or passing efficiently right now, and with the Buccaneers allowing any reasonable offense apart from the Browns to put up at least 30 points, I expect Cam Newton to have a lot of success on Sunday.
Lean: Tampa Bay +6.5
[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Cleveland Browns[/h]Total: 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 87 percent picked Kansas City
Johnson: This is a game between the two teams that I have made the effort not to bet against the past few weeks. I mentioned that the new-look Browns with Baker Mayfield under center was too much of a wild card early on to bet against, and I have stayed away from Kansas City since we bet the Broncos +4.5 in their first matchup earlier this season. My line for this game is Chiefs -7.4, so I wouldn't be looking to make a bet anyway without a bigger discrepancy in the number.
The total does have my attention, however. I thought the 53 open was really fair, as my number comes in at 53.1. The move down is probably related to the weather. I would typically jump at betting this over at 50.5 or better, but projected 15 mph winds are an issue. I will be following this closely since we are still three days out from kickoff, and the weather can obviously change course. I don't want to force a bet now, but I will update here if I end up making a pick.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Broncos have done the best job this season in two games at slowing down the Chiefs offense. Denver lost each of those games by just one score and held Kansas City to its two lowest scoring outputs of the season (27 and 30 points). The Broncos sport a top-five pass rush and the No. 2 overall pass defense, having faced against the fourth-toughest slate of opposing offenses. It's strikingly similar to the Browns defense, which has the No. 1 overall pass defense against the second-best slate of offenses, although Cleveland's pass rush is only 15th. The problem is that due to injuries, the Browns pass defense is trending much worse (23rd) than it was to start the season.
The Chiefs defense could look much better against a Browns offense that ranks very poorly. Kansas City's defense is still poor against the run, and the Browns should be able to get a big day out of new bell-cow RB Nick Chubb. It will be hard to get a strong read on what new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens will look to employ given he is now taking over for fired OC Todd Haley and this is his first attempt at game planning and playcalling.
Lean: Browns +8.5
[h=3]New York Jets at Miami Dolphins(-3)[/h]Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent picked New York
Johnson: I have drilled readers with Sam Darnold passing numbers against elite defenses and compared them to when the Jets have faced average or bad defenses. The Bears in Week 8 was the same story. Darnold was 14 of 29 for 153 yards (only 5.3 yards per pass attempt). He did take care of the football better and avoided interceptions, but the Jets ultimately only managed to score 10 points.
Well, the Miami Dolphins rank 30th in the NFL in pass defense. This matchup should be a breath of fresh air for Darnold and the offense, and for the defense, Ryan Tannehill has already been ruled out for Miami. My projection for the game is Dolphins -0.3, so getting +3 is a pretty sizable edge here. The Jets have had a cluster of sporadic injuries themselves, but my model accounts for these anyway. I'm taking a shot on the value +3 offers.
Pick: Jets +3
Sharp: Coming off a brutal stretch playing two of the NFL's best defenses (Vikings and Bears), the Jets and Sam Darnold finally get to face another subpar defense, particularly against the pass. The Dolphins pass defense ranks No. 26, and struggles tremendously to rush the passer (ranking 29th). The Miami defense has ranked No. 30 and No. 31 in explosive pass defense and explosive run defense, respectively, the past three weeks. The issue will be who Darnold can throw the ball to, with both Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwalikely out.
Brock Osweiler gets another start under center, but he appears determined to keep the job even when Ryan Tannehill gets healthy. The Jets pass defense isn't an easy one to solve, and it could have Marcus Maye and Trumaine Johnsonboth back in the secondary. Apart from the 31-point result against the Bears, Osweiler hasn't put up more than 23 points in either of the past two games.
Pick: Jets +3
[h=3]Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)[/h]Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Pittsburgh
Johnson: My number for this divisional rivalry game is Baltimore -2.4. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas is currently is one of two +3s left in the market, with most shops dealing +2.5 now on Pittsburgh. The popular narrative will be the "must-win" spot for the Ravens at home to improve to 5-4 on the season and stay in the hunt for the AFC North. The spread is ultimately fair either way, so unless the Ravens were PK or the Steelers were getting +3.5, the narrative is just noise.
Baltimore still fields the NFL's most efficient defense and is very familiar with what Big Ben and the Steelers try to do. If the Ravens didn't rank 27th in offense, I would admit that defense alone could keep them in the game. I ultimately think the best look in this game is the under 47.5. The Steelers have a top-10 defense themselves, and my raw projection is 45.3. I would love for a 48 to pop later this week. That will be my buy point for an under.
Pick: Lean under 47.5, buy at 48
Sharp: While these games tend to be close, the Ravens' stellar defense completely shut down the Steelers offense in the second half and cruised to a 26-14 upset win in Pittsburgh in Week 4. Baltimore's run defense has been stellar of late; despite playing two great run offenses of Carolina and New Orleans, those RBs only managed a 40 percent success rate, including 37 percent in the first half. The Steelers run offense is fresh off of three games against bottom-six run defenses (Browns, Bengals and Falcons) and should find the Ravens run defense a much tougher task.
Pittsburgh's defense is trending in the right direction and now gets to face a Baltimore offense that looked out of sorts last week in Carolina. Baltimore wasn't able to get pressure on the quarterback and with the receiving weapons Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal, pressuring him will be vital. With both defenses ranking top-10 in third down conversion rate, it will be vital for offenses to avoid long third downs.
Lean: Steelers +3
[h=3]Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings(-4.5)[/h]Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent picked Minnesota
Johnson: I mentioned last week that I had prepared to do "buy/sell" and futures analysis on the Lions in Week 9 if they beat Seattle. They did not. Seattle was the better team in Week 8, but it wasn't 14 points better like the final score indicated. The dagger for Detroit was the three turnovers -- two of which happened in the end zone.
I wouldn't immediately give up hope on Detroit, however. The Seahawks used their bye week to prepare for a Lions squad that had won three of its past four (Patriots, Packers, Dolphins), with the lone loss coming to the Cowboys in Dallas by two at the final whistle. Until Week 8, Matthew Stafford seemed as though he finally had a rushing attack at his disposal. They still rank top-10 in the league rushing the ball and in overall offensive efficiency.
So am I backing up a Lions bet at +5 in Minnesota this Sunday? My number is actually Vikings -6.4. I won't be betting this game, but if I had to I would be laying the -5 with the home team. The fact the market is quite a bit lower this week, though, is worth noting for future Detroit games as we look for value week-to-week.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Miami's run defense makes any run offense look better, and Detroit's run offense crushed the Lions on the ground in Week 7. But last week against the Seahawks' No. 6 run defense, when game was close in the first half, Kerryon Johnson averaged just 3.1 yards per carry and a 43 percent success rate. This week the Lions must face the No. 12 run defense of the Vikings, and will likely be forced to attack more through titkhe air.
Through the air is likely how the Vikings offense will look to attack the Lions as well. Minnesota oddly focused too much on running the ball last week against a bad pass defense and it cost the team dearly. The Vikings should be able to attack it through the air, even despite trading Golden Tate.
Lean: Lions +5
[h=3]Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5)[/h]Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Atlanta
Johnson: My love affair with the Falcons is well known by now. They opened +2.5 for Week 9 but were quickly bet down to +1.5. My numbers make the Falcons one-point favorites on the road against the Redskins, so after the swift move, at this point I will be looking to use Atlanta only in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 with the Chargers +7.5.
The Redskins don't run an offense designed to blow teams out. In fact, they may run the exact type of offense that this struggling Atlanta defense can keep in check. The past three Washington wins have been by one possession, and it was actually outgained by 43 yards in these games. The team ultimately benefited from a plus-six turnover margin and squeaked out wins late, but the overall perception that the Redskins have been playing great football is flawed.
Pick: Falcons +7.5 in a teaser with Chargers +7.5
Sharp: Washington's secondary will be enhanced by the addition of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who should improve a unit that ranked No. 9 against the pass prior to his acquisition. The Falcons have a clear weakness offensively and that is in their run game (No. 31). As such, Atlanta has become the second-most pass-heavy team in the league, so adding Clinton-Dix this week could pay off. The Falcons also struggle to protect Matt Ryan at times, which should be a problem against a Redskins defensive line that is one of the best in the league at applying pressure. So far this year, the Falcons offense has faced the fourth-easiest schedule of pass defenses.
Washington's rushing offense and Adrian Peterson should have a huge edge in this game. Atlanta ranks 31st defending the run and hasn't played a run offense as strong as the Redskins since Week 3 of the season. Meanwhile, after playing three top-10 run defenses from Weeks 5 through 7, Peterson ran for 149 yards at 5.7 yards per carry against the 19th-ranked Giants run defense last week. He should find plenty of running room against the Falcons.
Pick: Redskins -1.5
[h=3]Houston Texans at Denver Broncos(-1)[/h]Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Houston
Johnson: The Broncos opened as one-point favorites this week but were immediately bet up to -2.5 or -3 depending on the book. I wrote in my column on Tuesday that I disagreed with the move and only make Denver -1.2. At +3.5 it would be a buy point for me on Houston, but it has since dropped back down to Denver -1, crushing any hopes of that being a possibility.
Houston's defense has quietly crept up to the league's third-best in opponent yards per play allowed. It ranks in the top five against both the rush and the pass, so there isn't a weakness that particular teams can attack and expect to have a big advantage. The offense still has a ways to go before I would consider the Texans a legitimate contender in the AFC, but they are definitely the favorite to win the South division now that the Jaguars have fallen off -- and they hold more than a one-game lead over the Titans as well (and still get Tennessee at home later this year).
I didn't understand the sharp action on the Dolphins last Thursday night in Houston, and I didn't agree with the early move on Denver this week. The market seems to agree this time, having moved back down to Broncos -1 since.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Now that Demaryius Thomas is on the Texans, this game becomes a fascinating battle between playbook tipping and matchups. Thomas surely is telling the Texans defense everything he knows about Case Keenum. Denver surely will change its hand signals and audibles, but the interesting element about the matchup is the Broncos are a run-heavy team, which is now going up against the NFL's best run defense. Denver hasn't played a good run defense since Week 3 against the Ravens and lost that game by 13 points.
The exploitable part of the Texans defense is its secondary, which ranks 14th against the pass despite playing the NFL's easiest schedule of passing attacks. The Broncos still have Emmanuel Sanders, and rookie Courtland Sutton has played extremely well.
I still perceive Houston's offense, even with Thomas, to be a slight step down now that they lost WR Will Fuller for the season. Denver's weakness is on the ground, where it ranks 28th defending the run despite playing the 24th-ranked schedule of run offenses. That is great news for the Texans, who have faced nowhere near as bad a run defense as this all season.
Lean: Texans +1
[h=3]Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-1)[/h]Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Seattle
Johnson: I wouldn't overreact to the 28-14 Seattle win in Detroit too much. The Seahawks were in a pretty nice spot, and I certainly wouldn't consider them "back" after a single-game result. I wrote on Tuesday about why the final score was somewhat deceiving anyway. My projection for the Chargers-Seahawks matchup in Week 9 is exactly pick 'em, or 0.0.
If I gave people guesses about which team leads the NFL in offensive efficiency, my assumption is that the majority would say the Chiefs, the Rams, or the Buccaneers (led for the first month of the season). Kansas City is technically a correct response, but they are tied with the Chargers gaining 6.9 yards per play; Seattle ranks 20th. This is a good opportunity to use L.A. in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 to get them at +7.5.
Pick: Chargers +7.5 in a teaser with Falcons +7.5
Sharp: Teams that go on the road into Seattle first need to hope they can run the football. The Chargers rank No. 9 on the ground, but have played the third-easiest schedule year to date and haven't faced a single run defense that has ranked in the top 15 since Week 2 in Buffalo. The Seahawks run defense ranks No. 6 despite playing the third-most difficult schedule of run offenses. Melvin Gordon missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury and rested during the bye, but it won't be easy running in Seattle. Fortunately, if that means more passing, the Chargers should have a slight edge there.
The Chargers' No. 2-ranked pass offense is the toughest the Seahawks have faced all year. Apart from Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks defense hasn't faced any good QBs all season (Case Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott, Josh Rosen and Derek Carr).
The Seahawks have become a run-heavy team, ranking No. 1 in run rate, but have won three of their past four games, all on the road. Seattle's home-field advantage is massive, and it has played just two games at home despite this now being Week 9. The Chargers defense has been a disappointment and ranks just 18th in total defense, including 21st against the run. I think that will be the best advantage for Seattle in a game where it's getting a very little home-field advantage baked into the line.
Lean: Seahawks -1
Warren Sharp & Preston Johnson
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It's Week 9 of the NFL season, and handicappers Warren Sharp and Preston Johnson have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Sunday's games (except the late game, which will be featured in a separate file).
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday evening.
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Los Angeles
Johnson: This matchup is intriguing outside of the obvious storylines about a potential NFC Championship preview and home-field advantage possibly being on the line. The Rams lead the league with 150.9 rushing yards per game behind what could wind up being a historic season for Todd Gurley. They rank only fifth in yards per rush, but they wear defenses down by continually feeding Gurley in the fourth quarter. It's no coincidence that the Rams' defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent points per fourth quarter (2.9). The next closest team is Baltimore, which gives up four points per fourth quarter. Gurley is one of the Rams' best defensive weapons.
On the opposite side of that equation, the Saints rank No. 1 by a considerable margin in opponent yards per rush attempt. What is going to give here? Is Sean McVay going to force-feed Gurley, or is he going to attack a pass defense that ranks 29th in the NFL?
The Rams are gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt to this point in the season against better pass defenses, which is the best mark in the NFL this season -- and also the best number that exists in the data I have dating back to 2003. It's no secret that Gurley and the running game set up Jared Goff's dynamic attack through the air, but it's elite regardless.
My money is on McVay figuring out the best way to use his weapons and beat a Saints defense that has a glaring weakness. My projection for the game makes the Rams -1.3 on the road in this matchup, so at -1 it isn't a remarkable edge in the numbers. I do think that there is a significant coaching mismatch that lines up effectively for Los Angeles. I won't buy in to the fact that the Rams were looking ahead to this Week 9 game in New Orleans and thus struggled against Green Bay, but I would anticipate max effort and focus out of the players and coaches after the scare.
Pick: Rams -1
Sharp: I'm intrigued to see Sean Payton's game plan here. Two weeks ago he went run-heavy in Baltimore, which could be understood given the Ravens' strong pass rush. Last week he went run-heavy and relied on extremely quick/short passing from Drew Brees, despite facing a Vikings defense that was down three starters in the secondary. That was hard to understand. This week he faces the Rams (No. 6 versus the pass and 25th versus the run), so it would seem to make sense that the Saints would attack on the ground. But the Rams rank No. 26 in explosive passing and could be had there as well.
The Saints are far from their strong rushing attack of 2017, and actually rank dead last in explosive run offense. As such, a run-first approach would be far more methodical and slow, and would keep the Rams in the game much longer.
Sean McVay has to be licking his chops at New Orleans' No. 29 pass defense, the worst the Rams have faced since Week 1. In addition, the Saints rank just 23rd in pass rush and are down their top pass-rusher (Marcus Davenport) for this contest. I also expect a big step up from Goff given the return of WR Cooper Kupp. The big question is how much will the Rams run against the No. 2 run defense of the Saints, and how well will that run defense holds up considering it hasn't faced any run offense near the Rams' caliber this season.
Lean: Rams -1
[h=3]Chicago Bears (-10) at Buffalo Bills[/h]Total: 37.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 68 percent picked Chicago
Johnson: There isn't too much to dissect in this game. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: Nathan Peterman is worth three points to the spread in comparison to any of the other Bills quarterbacks that have taken the field this season. My number for this game is Bears -8.4 without the Peterman adjustment, so I wasn't surprised to see Chicago take the money earlier this week when the announcement was made Derek Anderson wouldn't be playing. I wouldn't be laying the -10 at this point, but if you grabbed the Bears under the -10 then you're sitting in a good position. It's a complete stay-away for me otherwise.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Buffalo is going with the turnover-prone Peterman out of necessity and now faces one of the best defenses in the NFL. The good news is the Bears defense is trending poorly. On the season, they are the No. 5 against the pass, but the past three weeks (despite playing just the Jets, Dolphins and Patriots) they've ranked 22nd. On the season they are the No. 3 defense versus the run, but the past three weeks they rank 19th. The last time the Bills played a top-five defense (Houston in Week 6), the game ended in a 20-13 road loss.
On the other side of the ball, the Bills defense is far from playing at its elite 2017 level, but is still opportunistic -- and that's where it could bite Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears offense has played just three top-10 defenses this year, and every game was a close win, apart from the 14-point home win last week. It's going to be ugly, but I don't think the Bears offense or current-form defense is a good bet laying 10 points on the road.
Lean: Bills +10
[h=3]Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-6)[/h]Total: 55
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent picked Carolina
Johnson: I'm trying to forget Week 8's Tampa Bay cover trailing by 18 in the fourth quarter. I had laid the -3.5 with Cincinnati and -- to the shock of nobody -- the prevent defense and prevent offense with the lead late didn't pan out for the Bengals. They wound up kicking a field goal to win the game by three points in regulation after Tampa Bay tied the game.
The irrational me wanted to immediately bet against the Buccaneers out of spite, but everybody knows this isn't a smart way to bet profitably long term. My number for the game is Carolina -6.9, so unless I saw a -5.5 appear I won't ultimately be getting involved in the side. The total at 55 is slightly inflated, but it isn't enough for me to consider a bet on the under either.
It's worth noting that Tampa Bay elected to bench James Winston against Cincinnati in Week 8 for Ryan Fitzpatrick -- and that it was Fitzpatrick who led them all the way back in that fourth quarter. The Buccaneers announced already that Fitzpatrick will be starting in Week 9. Fitz has been magical, and the offense has been even more efficient with him under center. This is likely one of the reasons why we are seeing a total at 55 and not 53. There may be some opportunity to bet this game live on Sunday, but for now I won't be getting involved.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Panthers defense was tremendous in limiting the passing attack of the Ravens to just 4.9 yards per attempt and a 41 percent success rate last week. Over the past month, Carolina has faced passing attacks that are either below average or not explosive (or both), but the Bucs rank No. 12 in passing efficiency and are the sixth-most explosive pass offense. It will be a test for the Panthers secondary to slow down Ryan Fitzpatrick and the deep receiving corps.
The Bucs defense will be challenged by Cam Newton, who is playing as well as he ever has played. The Panthers are capable of running or passing efficiently right now, and with the Buccaneers allowing any reasonable offense apart from the Browns to put up at least 30 points, I expect Cam Newton to have a lot of success on Sunday.
Lean: Tampa Bay +6.5
[h=3]Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Cleveland Browns[/h]Total: 51
PickCenter public consensus pick: 87 percent picked Kansas City
Johnson: This is a game between the two teams that I have made the effort not to bet against the past few weeks. I mentioned that the new-look Browns with Baker Mayfield under center was too much of a wild card early on to bet against, and I have stayed away from Kansas City since we bet the Broncos +4.5 in their first matchup earlier this season. My line for this game is Chiefs -7.4, so I wouldn't be looking to make a bet anyway without a bigger discrepancy in the number.
The total does have my attention, however. I thought the 53 open was really fair, as my number comes in at 53.1. The move down is probably related to the weather. I would typically jump at betting this over at 50.5 or better, but projected 15 mph winds are an issue. I will be following this closely since we are still three days out from kickoff, and the weather can obviously change course. I don't want to force a bet now, but I will update here if I end up making a pick.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: The Broncos have done the best job this season in two games at slowing down the Chiefs offense. Denver lost each of those games by just one score and held Kansas City to its two lowest scoring outputs of the season (27 and 30 points). The Broncos sport a top-five pass rush and the No. 2 overall pass defense, having faced against the fourth-toughest slate of opposing offenses. It's strikingly similar to the Browns defense, which has the No. 1 overall pass defense against the second-best slate of offenses, although Cleveland's pass rush is only 15th. The problem is that due to injuries, the Browns pass defense is trending much worse (23rd) than it was to start the season.
The Chiefs defense could look much better against a Browns offense that ranks very poorly. Kansas City's defense is still poor against the run, and the Browns should be able to get a big day out of new bell-cow RB Nick Chubb. It will be hard to get a strong read on what new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens will look to employ given he is now taking over for fired OC Todd Haley and this is his first attempt at game planning and playcalling.
Lean: Browns +8.5
[h=3]New York Jets at Miami Dolphins(-3)[/h]Total: 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent picked New York
Johnson: I have drilled readers with Sam Darnold passing numbers against elite defenses and compared them to when the Jets have faced average or bad defenses. The Bears in Week 8 was the same story. Darnold was 14 of 29 for 153 yards (only 5.3 yards per pass attempt). He did take care of the football better and avoided interceptions, but the Jets ultimately only managed to score 10 points.
Well, the Miami Dolphins rank 30th in the NFL in pass defense. This matchup should be a breath of fresh air for Darnold and the offense, and for the defense, Ryan Tannehill has already been ruled out for Miami. My projection for the game is Dolphins -0.3, so getting +3 is a pretty sizable edge here. The Jets have had a cluster of sporadic injuries themselves, but my model accounts for these anyway. I'm taking a shot on the value +3 offers.
Pick: Jets +3
Sharp: Coming off a brutal stretch playing two of the NFL's best defenses (Vikings and Bears), the Jets and Sam Darnold finally get to face another subpar defense, particularly against the pass. The Dolphins pass defense ranks No. 26, and struggles tremendously to rush the passer (ranking 29th). The Miami defense has ranked No. 30 and No. 31 in explosive pass defense and explosive run defense, respectively, the past three weeks. The issue will be who Darnold can throw the ball to, with both Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwalikely out.
Brock Osweiler gets another start under center, but he appears determined to keep the job even when Ryan Tannehill gets healthy. The Jets pass defense isn't an easy one to solve, and it could have Marcus Maye and Trumaine Johnsonboth back in the secondary. Apart from the 31-point result against the Bears, Osweiler hasn't put up more than 23 points in either of the past two games.
Pick: Jets +3
[h=3]Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-3)[/h]Total: 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 76 percent picked Pittsburgh
Johnson: My number for this divisional rivalry game is Baltimore -2.4. The SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas is currently is one of two +3s left in the market, with most shops dealing +2.5 now on Pittsburgh. The popular narrative will be the "must-win" spot for the Ravens at home to improve to 5-4 on the season and stay in the hunt for the AFC North. The spread is ultimately fair either way, so unless the Ravens were PK or the Steelers were getting +3.5, the narrative is just noise.
Baltimore still fields the NFL's most efficient defense and is very familiar with what Big Ben and the Steelers try to do. If the Ravens didn't rank 27th in offense, I would admit that defense alone could keep them in the game. I ultimately think the best look in this game is the under 47.5. The Steelers have a top-10 defense themselves, and my raw projection is 45.3. I would love for a 48 to pop later this week. That will be my buy point for an under.
Pick: Lean under 47.5, buy at 48
Sharp: While these games tend to be close, the Ravens' stellar defense completely shut down the Steelers offense in the second half and cruised to a 26-14 upset win in Pittsburgh in Week 4. Baltimore's run defense has been stellar of late; despite playing two great run offenses of Carolina and New Orleans, those RBs only managed a 40 percent success rate, including 37 percent in the first half. The Steelers run offense is fresh off of three games against bottom-six run defenses (Browns, Bengals and Falcons) and should find the Ravens run defense a much tougher task.
Pittsburgh's defense is trending in the right direction and now gets to face a Baltimore offense that looked out of sorts last week in Carolina. Baltimore wasn't able to get pressure on the quarterback and with the receiving weapons Ben Roethlisberger has at his disposal, pressuring him will be vital. With both defenses ranking top-10 in third down conversion rate, it will be vital for offenses to avoid long third downs.
Lean: Steelers +3
[h=3]Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings(-4.5)[/h]Total: 49
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent picked Minnesota
Johnson: I mentioned last week that I had prepared to do "buy/sell" and futures analysis on the Lions in Week 9 if they beat Seattle. They did not. Seattle was the better team in Week 8, but it wasn't 14 points better like the final score indicated. The dagger for Detroit was the three turnovers -- two of which happened in the end zone.
I wouldn't immediately give up hope on Detroit, however. The Seahawks used their bye week to prepare for a Lions squad that had won three of its past four (Patriots, Packers, Dolphins), with the lone loss coming to the Cowboys in Dallas by two at the final whistle. Until Week 8, Matthew Stafford seemed as though he finally had a rushing attack at his disposal. They still rank top-10 in the league rushing the ball and in overall offensive efficiency.
So am I backing up a Lions bet at +5 in Minnesota this Sunday? My number is actually Vikings -6.4. I won't be betting this game, but if I had to I would be laying the -5 with the home team. The fact the market is quite a bit lower this week, though, is worth noting for future Detroit games as we look for value week-to-week.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Miami's run defense makes any run offense look better, and Detroit's run offense crushed the Lions on the ground in Week 7. But last week against the Seahawks' No. 6 run defense, when game was close in the first half, Kerryon Johnson averaged just 3.1 yards per carry and a 43 percent success rate. This week the Lions must face the No. 12 run defense of the Vikings, and will likely be forced to attack more through titkhe air.
Through the air is likely how the Vikings offense will look to attack the Lions as well. Minnesota oddly focused too much on running the ball last week against a bad pass defense and it cost the team dearly. The Vikings should be able to attack it through the air, even despite trading Golden Tate.
Lean: Lions +5
[h=3]Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins (-1.5)[/h]Total: 48.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 51 percent picked Atlanta
Johnson: My love affair with the Falcons is well known by now. They opened +2.5 for Week 9 but were quickly bet down to +1.5. My numbers make the Falcons one-point favorites on the road against the Redskins, so after the swift move, at this point I will be looking to use Atlanta only in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 with the Chargers +7.5.
The Redskins don't run an offense designed to blow teams out. In fact, they may run the exact type of offense that this struggling Atlanta defense can keep in check. The past three Washington wins have been by one possession, and it was actually outgained by 43 yards in these games. The team ultimately benefited from a plus-six turnover margin and squeaked out wins late, but the overall perception that the Redskins have been playing great football is flawed.
Pick: Falcons +7.5 in a teaser with Chargers +7.5
Sharp: Washington's secondary will be enhanced by the addition of safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, who should improve a unit that ranked No. 9 against the pass prior to his acquisition. The Falcons have a clear weakness offensively and that is in their run game (No. 31). As such, Atlanta has become the second-most pass-heavy team in the league, so adding Clinton-Dix this week could pay off. The Falcons also struggle to protect Matt Ryan at times, which should be a problem against a Redskins defensive line that is one of the best in the league at applying pressure. So far this year, the Falcons offense has faced the fourth-easiest schedule of pass defenses.
Washington's rushing offense and Adrian Peterson should have a huge edge in this game. Atlanta ranks 31st defending the run and hasn't played a run offense as strong as the Redskins since Week 3 of the season. Meanwhile, after playing three top-10 run defenses from Weeks 5 through 7, Peterson ran for 149 yards at 5.7 yards per carry against the 19th-ranked Giants run defense last week. He should find plenty of running room against the Falcons.
Pick: Redskins -1.5
[h=3]Houston Texans at Denver Broncos(-1)[/h]Total: 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent picked Houston
Johnson: The Broncos opened as one-point favorites this week but were immediately bet up to -2.5 or -3 depending on the book. I wrote in my column on Tuesday that I disagreed with the move and only make Denver -1.2. At +3.5 it would be a buy point for me on Houston, but it has since dropped back down to Denver -1, crushing any hopes of that being a possibility.
Houston's defense has quietly crept up to the league's third-best in opponent yards per play allowed. It ranks in the top five against both the rush and the pass, so there isn't a weakness that particular teams can attack and expect to have a big advantage. The offense still has a ways to go before I would consider the Texans a legitimate contender in the AFC, but they are definitely the favorite to win the South division now that the Jaguars have fallen off -- and they hold more than a one-game lead over the Titans as well (and still get Tennessee at home later this year).
I didn't understand the sharp action on the Dolphins last Thursday night in Houston, and I didn't agree with the early move on Denver this week. The market seems to agree this time, having moved back down to Broncos -1 since.
Pick: Pass
Sharp: Now that Demaryius Thomas is on the Texans, this game becomes a fascinating battle between playbook tipping and matchups. Thomas surely is telling the Texans defense everything he knows about Case Keenum. Denver surely will change its hand signals and audibles, but the interesting element about the matchup is the Broncos are a run-heavy team, which is now going up against the NFL's best run defense. Denver hasn't played a good run defense since Week 3 against the Ravens and lost that game by 13 points.
The exploitable part of the Texans defense is its secondary, which ranks 14th against the pass despite playing the NFL's easiest schedule of passing attacks. The Broncos still have Emmanuel Sanders, and rookie Courtland Sutton has played extremely well.
I still perceive Houston's offense, even with Thomas, to be a slight step down now that they lost WR Will Fuller for the season. Denver's weakness is on the ground, where it ranks 28th defending the run despite playing the 24th-ranked schedule of run offenses. That is great news for the Texans, who have faced nowhere near as bad a run defense as this all season.
Lean: Texans +1
[h=3]Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks (-1)[/h]Total: 48
PickCenter public consensus pick: 52 percent picked Seattle
Johnson: I wouldn't overreact to the 28-14 Seattle win in Detroit too much. The Seahawks were in a pretty nice spot, and I certainly wouldn't consider them "back" after a single-game result. I wrote on Tuesday about why the final score was somewhat deceiving anyway. My projection for the Chargers-Seahawks matchup in Week 9 is exactly pick 'em, or 0.0.
If I gave people guesses about which team leads the NFL in offensive efficiency, my assumption is that the majority would say the Chiefs, the Rams, or the Buccaneers (led for the first month of the season). Kansas City is technically a correct response, but they are tied with the Chargers gaining 6.9 yards per play; Seattle ranks 20th. This is a good opportunity to use L.A. in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 to get them at +7.5.
Pick: Chargers +7.5 in a teaser with Falcons +7.5
Sharp: Teams that go on the road into Seattle first need to hope they can run the football. The Chargers rank No. 9 on the ground, but have played the third-easiest schedule year to date and haven't faced a single run defense that has ranked in the top 15 since Week 2 in Buffalo. The Seahawks run defense ranks No. 6 despite playing the third-most difficult schedule of run offenses. Melvin Gordon missed Week 7 with a hamstring injury and rested during the bye, but it won't be easy running in Seattle. Fortunately, if that means more passing, the Chargers should have a slight edge there.
The Chargers' No. 2-ranked pass offense is the toughest the Seahawks have faced all year. Apart from Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, the Seahawks defense hasn't faced any good QBs all season (Case Keenum, Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott, Josh Rosen and Derek Carr).
The Seahawks have become a run-heavy team, ranking No. 1 in run rate, but have won three of their past four games, all on the road. Seattle's home-field advantage is massive, and it has played just two games at home despite this now being Week 9. The Chargers defense has been a disappointment and ranks just 18th in total defense, including 21st against the run. I think that will be the best advantage for Seattle in a game where it's getting a very little home-field advantage baked into the line.
Lean: Seahawks -1
