How do they make KC -8?

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

I never understand lines like these. They can make the line 14.5 and get equal action. Instead they take a major position and hang an 8.

Why? What's the explanation? :think2:

Did not bet it either way but curious about how the hell this happens in general.

Books had to get D-E-S-T-R-O-Y-E-D by teasers on this one.

5teamparlay · Nov 4, 2018

Making the ML only about -420, if one wanted a win-

plus it was probably a popular tease with that line.

No sense.

busterhyman · Nov 4, 2018

got me wondering- what line should've they put up

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

busterhyman said:
got me wondering- what line should've they put up

At least 10
Get away from the teaser vulnerability

PatsFan1283 · Nov 4, 2018

Books don't care about getting equal action. They care about setting efficient lines.

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

PatsFan1283 said:
Books don't care about getting equal action. They care about setting efficient lines.

What exactly defines an "efficient line"?

PatsFan1283 · Nov 4, 2018

HarryCaray said:
What exactly defines an "efficient line"?

The correct line so there is no value in betting it.

Why would sportsbook care about getting equal action if they're well capitalized?

They care about booking +EV bets.

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

PatsFan1283 said:
The correct line so there is no value in betting it.

Why would sportsbook care about getting equal action if they're well capitalized?

They care about booking +EV bets.

When you hang a line that is sure to draw 80% of action on one side you are taking a position, plain and simple.
Just confounding that they would choose to take this position on this game.

PatsFan1283 · Nov 4, 2018

So you think they should toss out lines that they don't believe to be the correct lines in favor of getting 50/50 action?

No legit books are run like this. You would get killed in sharp action if you hung inefficient lines. Just post what you think is the right line and collect 4.55% over time.

DesertDevil · Nov 4, 2018

PatsFan is correct.

CHOPTALK · Nov 4, 2018

HarryCaray said:
I never understand lines like these. They can make the line 14.5 and get equal action. Instead they take a major position and hang an 8.

Why? What's the explanation? :think2:

Did not bet it either way but curious about how the hell this happens in general.

Books had to get D-E-S-T-R-O-Y-E-D by teasers on this one.

As I’m in a commercial break watching the best team in the nfl I’m curious .

If the line was 8 when it should have been 14 how come you did not pound the chiefs and take advantage of those 6 points ?

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

So you're suggesting lines don't move based on action received?

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

CHOPTALK said:
As I’m in a commercial break watching the best team in the nfl I’m curious .

If the line was 8 when it should have been 14 how come you did not pound the chiefs and take advantage of those 6 points ?

I have my reasons.

Look I'm not saying I'm smarter than the book, if I was I wouldn't be wasting time here.
Just a dumb fucking line, that's all.

PatsFan1283 · Nov 4, 2018

HarryCaray said:
So you're suggesting lines don't move based on action received?

In the NFL based on public action? Not much. There are exceptions like island games with late moves or rogue bookies who know their customers are gonna be on 1 side and they can rip them off (obv tougher to do this now w/ internet)

McGregor/Mayweather the best counterexample to this because they didn't wanna put the correct line up since it would open them up to a ton of exposure but if the oddsmakers hung inefficient lines to get strive towards 50/50 action then they would be attracting a ton of money betting into their soft, exploitable, incorrect lines.

kidman232 · Nov 4, 2018

definetly a line open to being teased, have to imagine bears and chiefs were in a ton of teasers this week. probably giving back alot of money they made off the 49ers game today

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

PatsFan1283 said:
In the NFL based on public action? Not much. There are exceptions like island games with late moves or rogue bookies who know their customers are gonna be on 1 side and they can rip them off (obv tougher to do this now w/ internet)

McGregor/Mayweather the best counterexample to this because they didn't wanna put the correct line up since it would open them up to a ton of exposure but if the oddsmakers hung inefficient lines to get strive towards 50/50 action then they would be attracting a ton of money betting into their soft, exploitable, incorrect lines.

OK. Then absent injury or weather, why do lines move at all?

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

The short answer would be "to attract/direct more money to one side".
Or at a minimum "action received has led us to reconsider what we first deemed the correct line".

Right?

slapshot · Nov 4, 2018

Why was Clemson-39 that was just as crazy

HarryCaray · Nov 4, 2018

Whoops

PatsFan1283 · Nov 4, 2018

HarryCaray said:
OK. Then absent injury or weather, why do lines move at all?

Because people that the books respect bet into them. Pretty much the gist of it.

injuries/weather/news/new info coming to light

How do they make KC -8?

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