Usually value earlier in the year ...like CFB ....
Some reminders ...
Copied
Returning starters have an edge – Early in the NCAA basketball season teams that have returning starters can have a big edge over teams that don’t. Returning starters know what they are supposed to be doing, they know what the coach demands and expects, and they are used to the speed and physicality of the college game. That’s not the case with new players, so returning starters are often ahead of new starters, even if the new starters are ultimately more talented. That’s a handy situation for basketball bettors to be able to exploit. By later in the season the advantage is significantly decreased because the new starters have had time to get used to the game and what they need to do. The advantage will never be more significant than in the first few games, and for college basketball handicappers that is often worth betting on.
Coaching changes – I truly believe that coaching can have a bigger impact on college basketball than on any other sport. Given the impact on a game that a system can have, and how important preparation and communication is, a good coach with a bad team can often beat a bad coach with a good team. Just look at the number of times recently that a high profile college basketball coach has taken over a new team and we have seen dramatic improvement right away. Because of the importance of coaching it is very important that you get a sense of which teams have made coaching changes, and what the impact of those coaching changes is likely to be. Has the team upgraded their coaching or taken a step backwards? In leagues that you are particularly interested you will want to go beyond just the head coaches. Has a team lost a key assistant that was crucial to the team’s development or recruiting? Have they upgraded their coaching staff through a change in assistants? These are the kinds of changes that a lot of people don’t pay attention to, so they can give smart basketball bettors a nice edge out of the gate.
Pros
Little attention = softer lines – Because there is so much other stuff going on, and because the early games in a good college basketball team’s schedule rarely really test the team or matter in a major way, there is usually much less betting action on games in November than there will be on games in February. As is always the case, the more betting action on a particular game, the more risk a sports book is taking by offering that action, and the harder they will work to make a very good line. Games with light action, then, are great for prepared basketball bettors, then, because they are in position to spot any errors that are made with the lines – much more likely in these games than in heavily bet ones – and exploit them. The lines in games with little action are also slower to move, so you have more time to act on an advantageous spot.
Clear advantages can stand out – Later in the season things like experience, stamina, and injuries can make it hard to get a sense of who is going to win a game. Early in the season, though, you can often spot a likely winner based on just a few key factors. For example, a college team that is returning four or five starters is going to perform better early on than one with just one returning starter, and that can give a team a huge edge in an early game.
Good way to get in form for the heart of the season – Teams use these early games to get ready for the heart of the conference season when the games matter most. Some sports bettors like to use the early games in college basketball in the same way. You can use the games to try out new approaches to handicapping, or to improve your handicapping speed or accuracy, or to get comfortable with a new conference.
Cons
No track record to rely on – Handicappers feel their best when they can depend upon recent, trustworthy information to make their bets. Early in the season we don’t have that. For the first couple of games the only stats we have are form the previous season, and so much changes every year in college basketball that relying on past stats is very dangerous. If as a basketball bettor you use a stats-heavy approach to betting then you might be more comfortable waiting until a few games have been played and you have some meaningful stats to use.
Less coverage – In the heart of the NCAA hoop season the national media is covering college basketball closely, and local papers are devoting more time and attention to the teams as well. Early on, though, the quality and quantity of the coverage is far lower. College basketball is one of the sports in which you can gain a lot of information, and often a solid edge, by following what is going on with specific teams – injured or hurting starters, roster changes, and so on. This is especially true for teams that are outside of the public eye. The worse the coverage it is, the lower the chances that an aware bettor can read something that can convert to a betting advantage.
Some reminders ...
Copied
Returning starters have an edge – Early in the NCAA basketball season teams that have returning starters can have a big edge over teams that don’t. Returning starters know what they are supposed to be doing, they know what the coach demands and expects, and they are used to the speed and physicality of the college game. That’s not the case with new players, so returning starters are often ahead of new starters, even if the new starters are ultimately more talented. That’s a handy situation for basketball bettors to be able to exploit. By later in the season the advantage is significantly decreased because the new starters have had time to get used to the game and what they need to do. The advantage will never be more significant than in the first few games, and for college basketball handicappers that is often worth betting on.
Coaching changes – I truly believe that coaching can have a bigger impact on college basketball than on any other sport. Given the impact on a game that a system can have, and how important preparation and communication is, a good coach with a bad team can often beat a bad coach with a good team. Just look at the number of times recently that a high profile college basketball coach has taken over a new team and we have seen dramatic improvement right away. Because of the importance of coaching it is very important that you get a sense of which teams have made coaching changes, and what the impact of those coaching changes is likely to be. Has the team upgraded their coaching or taken a step backwards? In leagues that you are particularly interested you will want to go beyond just the head coaches. Has a team lost a key assistant that was crucial to the team’s development or recruiting? Have they upgraded their coaching staff through a change in assistants? These are the kinds of changes that a lot of people don’t pay attention to, so they can give smart basketball bettors a nice edge out of the gate.
Pros
Little attention = softer lines – Because there is so much other stuff going on, and because the early games in a good college basketball team’s schedule rarely really test the team or matter in a major way, there is usually much less betting action on games in November than there will be on games in February. As is always the case, the more betting action on a particular game, the more risk a sports book is taking by offering that action, and the harder they will work to make a very good line. Games with light action, then, are great for prepared basketball bettors, then, because they are in position to spot any errors that are made with the lines – much more likely in these games than in heavily bet ones – and exploit them. The lines in games with little action are also slower to move, so you have more time to act on an advantageous spot.
Clear advantages can stand out – Later in the season things like experience, stamina, and injuries can make it hard to get a sense of who is going to win a game. Early in the season, though, you can often spot a likely winner based on just a few key factors. For example, a college team that is returning four or five starters is going to perform better early on than one with just one returning starter, and that can give a team a huge edge in an early game.
Good way to get in form for the heart of the season – Teams use these early games to get ready for the heart of the conference season when the games matter most. Some sports bettors like to use the early games in college basketball in the same way. You can use the games to try out new approaches to handicapping, or to improve your handicapping speed or accuracy, or to get comfortable with a new conference.
Cons
No track record to rely on – Handicappers feel their best when they can depend upon recent, trustworthy information to make their bets. Early in the season we don’t have that. For the first couple of games the only stats we have are form the previous season, and so much changes every year in college basketball that relying on past stats is very dangerous. If as a basketball bettor you use a stats-heavy approach to betting then you might be more comfortable waiting until a few games have been played and you have some meaningful stats to use.
Less coverage – In the heart of the NCAA hoop season the national media is covering college basketball closely, and local papers are devoting more time and attention to the teams as well. Early on, though, the quality and quantity of the coverage is far lower. College basketball is one of the sports in which you can gain a lot of information, and often a solid edge, by following what is going on with specific teams – injured or hurting starters, roster changes, and so on. This is especially true for teams that are outside of the public eye. The worse the coverage it is, the lower the chances that an aware bettor can read something that can convert to a betting advantage.
