Week 11: Finally…

Finally had a breakout week that would have been exceptional if not for A&M's late meltdown. They and Syracuse are my kryptonite.
YTD: 83-67, +15.25 units

Unlike last week, when I started with two half units and was anxious for some early MAC action, I really like these two.

1.5* Kent St. +21.5 Though Buffalo covered last week, I was not as impressed as I thought I would be. Buffalo loses their star D player 1st half for targeting while Kent gets back their best RB who runs at 5.1 ypc. Kent has also found a second back that can move the chains. Key here is that Kent can run the ball here and somewhat monopolize the clock. The other key is that it is supposed to be very windy (25-30 mph, with showers and drenching rain earlier in the day) The wind should somewhat negate a better Buffalo passing game advantage. Haven't seen the total yet but if that's at 50+, it's worth looking at.

2* Ohio -3 (-125) Ohio might be the best MAC football team right now and it might not be even close. Their defense has come around and was impressed at how well they have defended the run in recent weeks vs. earlier this season. Also, QB Rourke has blossomed at about the same time as the defense. Great instincts out there, with a nice spurt of speed. His passing is also more polished than I thought it would be. Miami has been a competitive team, and they are at home, but they have many defensive injuries, and others who are banged up. I think they might have upset Buffalo if not for those injuries. Going with the hot team here.

Fred...…..well done last week buddy......out of the red and on your way to a successful season...….continued success this week...…...indy

The total on that Buffalo game dropped by about 10 from it's open. Winds at 28-32, gusts in the 40-50 range. The UB turf is known to be slippery when wet, although rain should stop by game time.

So Kent +28 looks better than Buff-12...

Bovada still have Under 44....lots of running tonight. Bargain for me. GL Fred and BOL to all.

I got a little on the 43.5, but not a play. Wind chill in the low 40s. I still like the +21 better.

I know I should post this in the NBA forum, and it's probably a "duh" statement for those who go there, but the Alabama 1H winning phenomena is happening in a different way with the Warriors. I don't know the actual ATS stats, but it seems they will always win one of the halves- and easily. Bet 1H, if it doesn't cover, bet 2nd half, break even. They'll often win the 1st half, and you can call it a day. I don't know how long it will continue, but right now they are healthy and playing hot for at least one half.

Kent +17 now... you bet it at the right time fred!!!

The wind could have been blowing at 100 mph, and Kent couldn't stop a runner. I forgot how bad the second level players are on these MAC defenses. NIU might be the exception, but I'm off that game.

1* NC State -17 Seems like a ridiculous spread, but Wake has more than QB Hartman's injury to worry about. They go with redshirt soph Jamie Newman, who looks like a decent running QB that is a mediocre passer. Plus he's injury prone. Then they have Kendall Hinton backing him up, and he is questionable with an injured hip. Part of this play is that there is a reasonable chance they run out of QBs or play with a semi-injured one. Also, I have no idea how Wake will stop the NC State passing game. Even if the Wake QBs lead them to a few scores, will NC St. still score 50+? Remember, Wake's last 2 wins were against Louisville, who has basically quit on playing D, and Rice, who suck in every aspect. Otherwise, they have been getting their clock cleaned. Hartman was a playmaker that I don't think can be replaced.

3* Fresno -3 Forget about Boise being somehow at an advantage on the blue turf. They are 5-14 ATS there the last 3 years, with a few losses. Granted, they have been favored by some ridiculous spreads at home. But they just aren't the same old Boise as in their past glory years. Even this year, they had their statement games @ Troy in game one(though Troy has shown to be less than expected), and @ Wyoming(before Wyoming found an offense). Otherwise they start fast vs. a few god-awful teams like CSU and UConn, outscore others like Nevada and Air Force, but don't seem to play solidly for a whole game. Their defense "would" be up there with Fresno's, but injuries have made it above average. This week they lose their top tackler. Even without all the injuries, I think Boise's D is overrated.

One of the key things I like here is the difference in mobility between Rypien and McMaryion. McMaryion can move so well around the pocket, pass on the run, and take off for big gainers. Rypien will almost always be found in the pocket. I'm hoping Fresno will add some pressure there although they don't normally blitz a lot. Still, Boise's OL has had some trouble protecting Rypien, and he has been turnover prone in certain games. I also like the excellent pass coverage of the Fresno DBs. This weakens a bit of one of Boise's strengths. Fresno was more of a bend don't break defense last year, but this season they are more physical and tackle well. Neither team has RB that will break for a big run, and I really think McMaryion might be the best running threat on the field in that he'll make the crucial run when they most need it. Boise might also be missing WR Hightower due to injury, a game time decision. Taking Fresno as a favorite on the road here at Boise doesn't seem like a big risk. Win or lose, Fresno is the right play.

Fresno coaches are well aware of Boise's fast starts, and willingness to open the playbook 1st quarter- as reported in the media- and will be ready…hopefully.

Also, regarding NCST, running the ball plays right into NCST's defensive strength. Wake will have to throw to keep up

Just love, love me some Tedford State too......good luck o fred

Not a good start to the week.

Two FCS games:

1* EWU/ UC Davis- over 68.5 Been kind of waiting for this face-off. The weather should be cool, but fine otherwise. UC Davis has a prolific offense, and a so-so defense. Their offense has only been somewhat tamed by Stanford this year, although they put up 258 yards passing vs. the Trees. EWU has the kind of running game that can gouge UC Davis, while also having a strong dual threat QB. This game is between two of the offensive powerhouses/ better teams in the Big Sky, and OC tend to open the playbook and shootouts occur. I expect this to hit the 80s as both teams trade scores. Also, no pulling back 4th quarter as when they play weaker opponents.

1* Brown/ Columbia- under 45 Going to be windy in Providence, with gusts up around 40. Not sure that matters much as neither of these two have much passing offense anyways. Columbia has a decent defense so Brown will really struggle to score even 10. Brown's offense averaging less than 10 its. per game their last 5 games.

Hope we do as well this time on FCS totals!

thanks for sharing

0-3 to start the week. On each game, the sharp money moved the line, and each time it lost. November can be a very good month to bet the dogs, and so a few favorites I had are not large plays. A little wary...My card doesn't have anything over 3* as of now.

3* Iowa State -16.5 Iowa State is at home and is just the kind of team that should be able to slam Baylor. Baylor off an upset win last week vs. Okie State(although the Cowboys are pretty mediocre this year so upset? Maybe not). Iowa State's defense, in my opinion, is the best of the Big 12. They are deep and talented. Playing D in the Big 12 is tough, and many teams outscore their opponents as path to victory. Not the Cyclones. One of the reasons I like this game is the disparity between the 2 Ds of these 2 teams. Baylor has gotten hammered defensively a number of times, and even Kansas State got almost 500 yards on them. Like also that Iowa State is at home, with 3 losses, have played a very tough schedule, and have 3-4 playmakers on offense that will give the Baylor D fits. The QB situation at Baylor also up in the air. Brewer has only thrown 16 passes the last two weeks. One more concussion and his season is likely through. Iowa State still has hopes for a place in the Big 12 CG.


2* Alabama -23.5
1* Alabama -14 1H Once again, much of this game hinges on Tua's health. Will he finish the game? Will MSU knock him out of the game? Watching him move last week makes me think his mobility and running abilities are damn good, but can Bama protect him? I think their OL can and will. I like the game bet more because I still think Fitzgerald will have to throw the ball more than he's comfortable doing. Especially if the Bulldogs get behind. The Tide don't have a look ahead next week, at home, and their defense is starting to show they can dominate one dimensional offenses like LSU and MSU. Also, what might be overlooked is how great the Bama running game is, the ability of their receivers(many of them) to make plays, and how the play-calling no longer leans predictable. Fitz has really struggled to complete passes unless his receivers are wide open. Could be getting Alabama at a bargain price here, although maybe this is the week they are finally off their game???

More underdogs and totals to come later in the thread.

3* Cincinnati -14 This line seems begging for USF money. Very cold in Cinn. this Saturday and the USF players haven't played a cold weather game yet. Not even close to the temps here. They play defense poorly, tackle poorly, and in these conditions, will likely gravitate toward the bench heaters more than the field. The Bearcats also play a very aggressive defense that will easily be the best D USF has seen this year. QB Desmond Ridder had an off day passing in the Temple game, but overall has improved as the season has progressed. Combine that with a very strong running game, a s**t USF defense(and I'm counting on a poor effort in the cold here) and UC playing for an excited nighttime crowd, and I like this seemingly large spread.

3* Iowa -10 (-115) Iowa is my "eye test" game of the week. I know NW has been great as an underdog, but in my mind, Iowa is #2 in the Big 10. Really like how good they often look on both sides of the ball. Northwestern has had a couple of lucky covers, like last week, and they are due for a bomb here after 6 weeks in a row vs. some brutal competition. Iowa outplayed Penn State on the road despite Stanley having an off night. I also question Northwestern's ability to run the ball. Another line that looks to good to be true..NW +10.5….because it is. Iowa rolls at home.

"More" underdogs?? LOL ...Good luck tmrw Fred

Will be interesting to see how this wknd plays out..chalking?? Doggie??? Or even mix

Didn't mean to say "more". Underdogs right here:

2* BC +19 Clemson seems to always have a letdown game even in their best seasons. They usually dominate the following week. Should be cold in Boston, with winds in the 20s. Boston College doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, they just aren't at Clemson's level talent-wise. BC plays with a lot of enthusiasm and is a physical team. They will play this game to win, not for a moral victory, and will have to take chances offensively and defensively. Stopping the Clemson running game won't be easy, but BC has to commit extra help there. Clemson played close by A&M and Syracuse.

2* Oregon +3.5 Should have grabbed the 4. Not only is Huntley out for Utah, but their star RB Moss is out too. Huntley, though, is the key. He has blossomed this season, better at passing, decision-making, and can run 10 yards in a heartbeat. The Ducks defense has been inconsistent, but not overwhelmed. These two injuries keeps them in the game. Their offense will be tested by Utah's D, but I think they'll find some scoring plays now that they have Herbert and Dillon Mitchell healthy, and plan to use Brook-James more. The Ducks OL is also good enough to keep Utah from teeing off on Herbert too often. I also think Utah's defense has been good, but not great. Their home field advantage has been good this year, but overall it's an overrated advantage. They've lost or not covered many times in recent years.

2* UMass +14 BYU had a nice game vs. Boise last week(but lost), but overall they have been crap offensively all season. UMass tends to stick around in these home games, and have enough offensive firepower to make this a game. BYU's win at Wisconsin early in the year looks a little less impressive since the Badgers have turned out so average. Weather conditions should be cold and windy, and BYU traveling pretty far for a game in the middle of Massachusetts. Got to think the Minutemen are more excited to playing a nationally recognizable program. BYU's lack of running game should help UMass' lack of run defense.

1.5* Colorado +6 This play is a bit of a risk because the Buffs have so many key guys that are day to day injury-wise. But if they get most of them back, they'll possibly pull an upset here. Colorado has a pretty dynamic offense that can test what I think is an overrated Wazzu D. The Cougs pulled a close one out last week vs. Cal, partly because the stupid OC of Cal kept switching QBs throughout the game- two QBs that have contrasting styles. Mile high elevation could play int this too. PAC 12 teams, even the best ones, have a tough contest week after week, and these types of games usually go either way.

2* Colorado State +14 Nevada has surged late in the season, but they aren't good enough to give up 14 points here. CSU have bettors so disgusted that I think this line is inflated. CSU has the offensive players to make this competitive. The Rams really are pretty good at the WR and QB positions, and if they pass often, they'll score on Nevada's average D. They look woeful defensively, but haven't quit late in their losses, and at least can concentrate on Nevada's running game here.

2* Oregon State +24 God-awful defense by the Beavs, no doubt. However, it has been a little less so in recent weeks. And with Stanford missing their star WR, Bryce Love being dinged up and not himself, other Stanford injuries, well…. Oregon State can cover here. The Beavs have a pretty solid offense, and finally have a passing game to go with RB Jefferson's emergence as a star. Stanford's front 7 on D is just not up to their usual standard. I think the Beavs score somewhere in the 20s here. Oregon State really plays hard for 60 minutes despite their talent deficiencies.

Just teasing ya a little LOL, appreciate the time you take on the writeups

BOL this weekend!

2* UCLA +12.5 Chip Kelly has a young and talented team, that finally has a little experience. I think his team has embraced the maverick nature of Kelly, and that he remains unflappable and willing to be unpredictable at all times during a game. They have a stud in RB Kelly, and two QBs that are capable, but definitely not consistent. ASU has a habit of following good games with bad, and are very vulnerable defensively against the run. They might be coming off a "win hangover" after last week's victory vs. Utah. Other than their big loss to Utah, UCLA has been in every game their last 5, winning two.

These are all posted as 1*, but some are on the light side.

1* S. Miss +12 UAB has been remarkable in recent weeks, but my god, what a bunch of cream puffs they beat up. They don't really pass all that much, and their very good run game will be offset by a tough S. Miss defensive front. S. Miss has lost a couple of games that they easily could have won and could be sitting at 6-2 here. they have played a tougher schedule than UAB and I expect they can match UAB's line play pretty well here.

1* San Jose +31 Go ahead and laugh. I made $ off of Utah State like many others, but QB Jordan Love left the Hawaii game early with a head injury. He'll likely play but for how long? Part of this play says that SJ is not the same patsy they were earlier this year or last year. They played Oregon, SDSU, and Wyoming pretty well, have an improving defense, and a QB that can get a back door cover here. Utah State is very good, but their lines are somewhat inflated at this point.

1* Tenn. +5.5 At home. Kentucky is off so many tough, competitive games vs. SEC teams, that they could be flat here. The Vols are playing this game like it's their bowl game since they are likely not going to one. I'm brushing off the Charlotte game as the Vols flat game, looking more at how well they can play as they did vs. Auburn and SC. Kentucky offense struggles to score here in a noisy atmosphere.


1* Minnesota +10.5 Minnesota looks like an easy target here, but I think they'll play hard after the firing of their DC. With the Gophers, you have to pick your spots. They can score on the Purdue defense, and with QB Tanner Morgan, they have a passing game again. Purdue has just played 3 big games in a row, and could be off a bit here on the road in a game they are expected to win.

1* Kansas +10.5 K State has had two defensive starters arrested in the past week, and I'm not sure of their playing status, as one was injured anyways, but the distractions are a factor. I also think these two teams are not that far apart. K State has recruited poorly in recent years, and perhaps the Jayhawks are pretty similar in talent. Kansas has the passing edge here, and will need to use it. K State, once known for their defensive prowess, is no longer near that level. I think Kansas will play hard for departing coach Beaty. This is a senior laden team that can actually play some defense, and I think they can even pull the upset here.