Wow what a horrible week 6-8 -1251 YTD 39-43 -1004
If that damn FG goes through in Denver things aren't so bad, but that is gambling - Thanks TCG for posting this article explains why some of us were on a tilt last week.
After a week when the public does well they usually tale a dive the following week.
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/nevada-sports-books-lose-10m-on-sundays-nfl-games-1519488/
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]I am confident i will get the money back.
On a positive note I keep my head above water in the super contest going 3-2 now at 26 points hitting 60% is one of best years ever.
Here are my notes on week 10.
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Public dogs - 15-4 over the last 5 years in week 10...looks like there might be only 2 Carolina and Buffalo...I take my final read of these Friday or Game day when there is a Thursday game
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Public favs 50% 0-5 if the line holds or moves up
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Public Favs 60% 6-13 if the line moves up or down if holds no move the fav is 6-2
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]70% Public favs 6-10 if the line moves up or down
* So far there are a lot of heavy public fav's & Under valued favs ( 9 out of 14 teams opened below their PR) which leads me to believe the public will lose this week
Teams that open 1-5 points below my PR are 20-23 ATS after week 1....JET FALCON SAINT BUCC COLT BEAR CHEIF CHARGER EAGLE
Teams that open 1-5 points above my PR are 8-16 ATS after week 1....PATS RAM
* some juicy divisional dogs this week BUFF +8 JAX +3 DET +7 OAK +10 SEA +10 DALLAS +6.5.....
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]The Super contest top 5 picks is on 14-1 run the last 3 weeks but 12-13 in week 10 expect a turn of fortune here
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[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]The bottom 5 picks are 8-2 the last 2 years in week 10.
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Heres something to ponder Buffalo gives up 27 points a game or 243 YTD - How many of those points have been scored on the offense with Pick sixs? I know of at least 4 and numerous times last week CHIC had a short field
So lets take a closer look at their defense....YARD / Play Allowed 5.3 good for #3 in the league..they are ranked #6 in RY/ATT and #3 in PY/ATT...I think +7.5 is too much in this game which could end up being 12-6 or 13-9 two bad football teams
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ONE play so far this week CAROLINA +4 $222 / $200....Been terrible of Thursday's but I think the the Panthers sneak one here...
Steelers 7-8 L3 years off a divisional rival...Panthers 9-3
Steelers 6-4 L3 years in non conference... Panthers 7-2
Steelers 18-17 L3 years as a Fav ....Panthers 11-5 as a dog
gl guys back on SATURDAY
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If that damn FG goes through in Denver things aren't so bad, but that is gambling - Thanks TCG for posting this article explains why some of us were on a tilt last week.
After a week when the public does well they usually tale a dive the following week.
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/nevada-sports-books-lose-10m-on-sundays-nfl-games-1519488/
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]I am confident i will get the money back.
On a positive note I keep my head above water in the super contest going 3-2 now at 26 points hitting 60% is one of best years ever.
Here are my notes on week 10.
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Public dogs - 15-4 over the last 5 years in week 10...looks like there might be only 2 Carolina and Buffalo...I take my final read of these Friday or Game day when there is a Thursday game
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Public favs 50% 0-5 if the line holds or moves up
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Public Favs 60% 6-13 if the line moves up or down if holds no move the fav is 6-2
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]70% Public favs 6-10 if the line moves up or down
* So far there are a lot of heavy public fav's & Under valued favs ( 9 out of 14 teams opened below their PR) which leads me to believe the public will lose this week
Teams that open 1-5 points below my PR are 20-23 ATS after week 1....JET FALCON SAINT BUCC COLT BEAR CHEIF CHARGER EAGLE
Teams that open 1-5 points above my PR are 8-16 ATS after week 1....PATS RAM
* some juicy divisional dogs this week BUFF +8 JAX +3 DET +7 OAK +10 SEA +10 DALLAS +6.5.....
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]The Super contest top 5 picks is on 14-1 run the last 3 weeks but 12-13 in week 10 expect a turn of fortune here
[/FONT]
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]The bottom 5 picks are 8-2 the last 2 years in week 10.
[FONT=verdana, sans-serif]Heres something to ponder Buffalo gives up 27 points a game or 243 YTD - How many of those points have been scored on the offense with Pick sixs? I know of at least 4 and numerous times last week CHIC had a short field
So lets take a closer look at their defense....YARD / Play Allowed 5.3 good for #3 in the league..they are ranked #6 in RY/ATT and #3 in PY/ATT...I think +7.5 is too much in this game which could end up being 12-6 or 13-9 two bad football teams
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ONE play so far this week CAROLINA +4 $222 / $200....Been terrible of Thursday's but I think the the Panthers sneak one here...
Steelers 7-8 L3 years off a divisional rival...Panthers 9-3
Steelers 6-4 L3 years in non conference... Panthers 7-2
Steelers 18-17 L3 years as a Fav ....Panthers 11-5 as a dog
gl guys back on SATURDAY
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