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Thread: NFL week 10

  1. #1 NFL week 10 
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Wow what a horrible week 6-8 -1251 YTD 39-43 -1004

    If that damn FG goes through in Denver things aren't so bad, but that is gambling - Thanks TCG for posting this article explains why some of us were on a tilt last week.

    After a week when the public does well they usually tale a dive the following week.



    https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports/betting/nevada-sports-books-lose-10m-on-sundays-nfl-games-1519488/




    I am confident i will get the money back.

    On a positive note I keep my head above water in the super contest going 3-2 now at 26 points hitting 60% is one of best years ever.

    Here are my notes on week 10.




    Public dogs - 15-4 over the last 5 years in week 10...looks like there might be only 2 Carolina and Buffalo...I take my final read of these Friday or Game day when there is a Thursday game

    Public favs 50% 0-5 if the line holds or moves up

    Public Favs 60% 6-13 if the line moves up or down if holds no move the fav is 6-2

    70% Public favs 6-10 if the line moves up or down

    * So far there are a lot of heavy public fav's & Under valued favs ( 9 out of 14 teams opened below their PR) which leads me to believe the public will lose this week
    Teams that open 1-5 points below my PR are 20-23 ATS after week 1....JET FALCON SAINT BUCC COLT BEAR CHEIF CHARGER EAGLE
    Teams that open 1-5 points above my PR are 8-16 ATS after week 1....PATS RAM

    * some juicy divisional dogs this week BUFF +8 JAX +3 DET +7 OAK +10 SEA +10 DALLAS +6.5.....


    The Super contest top 5 picks is on 14-1 run the last 3 weeks but 12-13 in week 10 expect a turn of fortune here

    The bottom 5 picks are 8-2 the last 2 years in week 10.

    Heres something to ponder Buffalo gives up 27 points a game or 243 YTD - How many of those points have been scored on the offense with Pick sixs? I know of at least 4 and numerous times last week CHIC had a short field
    So lets take a closer look at their defense....YARD / Play Allowed 5.3 good for #3 in the league..they are ranked #6 in RY/ATT and #3 in PY/ATT...I think +7.5 is too much in this game which could end up being 12-6 or 13-9 two bad football teams

    ONE play so far this week CAROLINA +4 $222 / $200....Been terrible of Thursday's but I think the the Panthers sneak one here...

    Steelers 7-8 L3 years off a divisional rival...Panthers 9-3
    Steelers 6-4 L3 years in non conference... Panthers 7-2
    Steelers 18-17 L3 years as a Fav ....Panthers 11-5 as a dog


    gl guys back on SATURDAY

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  2. #2  
    RX Wizard 3pointdog's Avatar
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    Darnold out for the Jets pal.. Just FYI... Josh McNown will start for Jets
    Just Win....
    Placed 13th in 2012 LVH Super Contest

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  3. #3  
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    We got a decent line on Carolina +4......its down to +3 at several places + +3.5 at others. Carolina should win SU
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  4. #4  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3pointdog View Post
    Darnold out for the Jets pal.. Just FYI... Josh McNown will start for Jets
    I saw that and Josh Allen was been throwing again so far both teams have not announced QB's official but I think your right McNown will go for NY - Dont sleep on that bills defense in a rivarly game i think they could win SU will have a clearer understanding of that game tmr

    Quote Originally Posted by The Computer Group View Post
    We got a decent line on Carolina +4......its down to +3 at several places + +3.5 at others. Carolina should win SU
    Agreed but the line move has lost 6 out of 7 times on TNF buyer beware.....Remember Big Ben a bit dinged up in that Ravens game.

    Already sent my contest plays in you know what that means


    gl this week guys
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  5. #5  
    RX SemiGod METFAN's Avatar
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    Good Luck this week Powerz
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  6. #6  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Adding $309 O51 -103

    GL GUYS
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  7. #7  
    RX Senior
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    BOL tonight powerz
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  8. #8  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    1-1 +78 so far this week but that is good usually playing from behind.

    Shout out to BIG CAT 7-3 and Lsu Pete 5-3 for another good day in CFB when those goes line up always make it a dbl play ...Txas and indy Yesterday both nail biters but they cashed

    On to SUNDAY

    PATS O46.5 220 / 200
    TENN +6.5 -115 230/200
    TENN ML +230 50/130

    This is one of those games when you back and say how did the Pats get to 12-4 - Oh yeah that game in Tenn

    BUFF +6 +112 $100/112
    BILL O38 -103 $103/100

    SAINTS U53.5 -122 $244/200

    JAX +3 -103 $103/100
    JAX ML +143 $50/73

    GL powerz
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  9. #9  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Bears U 44 +106 $200/212
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  10. #10  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Super contest plays

    Car +4 - LOSER
    TENN +6.5
    PHILL -6.5
    SEATTLE +9.5
    NYG +3

    GL GUYS
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  11. #11  
    RX Local indiana's Avatar
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    PWZ...….BOL with all your action today and contest buddy...…...indy
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  12. #12  
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    Best of luck powerz
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  13. #13  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Seattle +10 -114 $285/250
    Seattle ML +378 $50/189
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  14. #14  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Raiders live U 44.5 $110/100
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  15. #15  
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    Another 171 / 150 on Seattle +10...they are going win SU
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  16. #16  
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    Sweet after Russell Fumble with 5 minutes I thought I would be toast....But they pull it out

    8-5 on the day +418 so far

    NITE cap Eagles -4 FH -119 $238/200

    Need the eagles to win to finish off a few parlays
    Need the eagles -6.5 in the contest

    Fly eagles fly

    gl guys

    Powerz
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  17. #17  
    Dice, Sports & Cocktails powerz's Avatar
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    Stupid eagles

    Played gmen +3 +100 $200
    Gmen ml +130 $50

    GL gents

    Powerz
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  18. #18  
    RX Wizard 3pointdog's Avatar
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    Good luck buddy
    Just Win....
    Placed 13th in 2012 LVH Super Contest

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